A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

I think there is also some vast differences of opinion on the definition of “competitive.”

 

The Sox were 3 games out of the last wild card on July 31. Is that competitive? Some will say yes, but others will not, and might even add on additional factors.

 

As it stands now, it’s very possible the Sox view last year as a success in that they helped grow the farm while meeting their definition of “staying competitive.”

 

All a theory, but hardly a ridiculous one…

 

I totally get this point, and agree that this is probably how Sox management views it.

 

I also think Sox management places the farm and long term future as the highest priority beyond maximizing profits.

 

To me, it's about getting to the point of- being "highly competitive," and this is where I veer away from many here and likely Sox management. Almost from mid June on, my gut said there was no chance this team was going to win a ring, even if Sale, paxton and others returned and did well. I know that is not a scientific approach, but I was certain we'd not win a ring in 2022. By mid July it was a lock, IMO. It seemed blatantly obvious. Yes, just a few games behind in the WC seemed attainable, despite there being 3-4 or more teams b etween us and that last slot at any given time.

 

It's not hindsighting for me. I'm not puffing my chest out and trying to claim I was right and all of you were wrong. I was dead wrong about our chances back in March, and I probably predicted more wins by that team than most others, here, so it's not about me rubbing anyone's faces in the end results, but even just a simple JD trade to get us under the tax line would have helped in many ways. I had hoped for much more, but I understand why they didn't have a fire sale.

 

It would be interesting to know, if anyone in Sox management was lobbying for a fire sale, but were overruled.

 

[moonslav59]

If I ran a business and hired away a competitors operating manager and my business got worse and my competitors got better, it wouldn’t take me years to figure out I made a huge mistake

 

Is the business worse than it was in 2020?

 

Is the business outlook worse now than it was after 2019?

 

JH & Co. chose Bloom for a reason. The same way they chose Ben, years ago. They knew we were heading into rough times, and the massive budget cut after 2019 proves it.

 

You really think any business that slashes it's budget so drastically is thinking they will be better than their competitors that are increasing their budgets in 1-2 short years?

 

Could the problem actually be with some of our expectations rather than what the new operating manager did or did not do given the parameters forced down his throat.

 

You think DD would have won in 2018 had he been forced to cut the budget and not trade a single top prospect?

 

Were the Ben years a "big mistake?" Maybe. They did can him and hire DD, bjut without the groundwork Ben left for DD, there would be no 2018, either, right?

 

Maybe, JH decides to flip the script again, but somehow I think he wants to give the balanced approach a little longer and not swing the DD pendulum ever again. Is that a mistake or not? We'll see,

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My son is at Fenway Park today.

 

Jason Varitek just stopped the first puck pitch shot by Bobby Orr.

 

True story.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports the Sox and Marlins are discussing a possible trade involving Casas. (Remember, I was called crazy for suggesting he might be traded.)

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/marlins-have-pursued-triston-casas-in-trade-talks-with-red-sox.html

 

I have to think any trade of Casas would involve a top SP'er coming to the Sox, not named Alcantara. Lopez only has 2 years remaining and Rogers, Luzardo and Garnett all have questions and are not really "aces."

 

We do have Turner to play 1B, and if we acquire a RF'er, we could play Dugo in LF, where he belongs, and Yoshida at DH. perhaps where he belongs.

 

Maybe we take on A Garcia's contract to lessen the return. Apparently, MIA likes Rafaela, too.

 

I'd love to see a deal centered around a SP'er from MIA, A Garcia and M Rojas for Rafaela and maybe Duran/Dalbec/Murphy types, but if it takes Casas, then we would not need to take Garcia.

[Old Red]

MLBTR reports the Sox and Marlins are discussing a possible trade involving Casas. (Remember, I was called crazy for suggesting he might be traded.)

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/marlins-have-pursued-triston-casas-in-trade-talks-with-red-sox.html

 

I have to think any trade of Casas would involve a top SP'er coming to the Sox, not named Alcantara. Lopez only has 2 years remaining and Rogers, Luzardo and Garnett all have questions and are not really "aces."

 

We do have Turner to play 1B, and if we acquire a RF'er, we could play Dugo in LF, where he belongs, and Yoshida at DH. perhaps where he belongs.

 

Maybe we take on A Garcia's contract to lessen the return. Apparently, MIA likes Rafaela, too.

 

I'd love to see a deal centered around a SP'er from MIA, A Garcia and M Rojas for Rafaela and maybe Duran/Dalbec/Murphy types, but if it takes Casas, then we would not need to take Garcia.

You are really patting yourself on the back on a report?

[notin]

If I ran a business and hired away a competitors operating manager and my business got worse and my competitors got better, it wouldn’t take me years to figure out I made a huge mistake

 

That’s just recency. Two facts:

 

1. The Sox dropped off by a larger margin from 2018 to 2019 than they did from 2021 to 2021.

 

2. The Sox have a better W-L record during DD’s time in Philly than the Phillies do.

 

The big change isn’t just replacing DD with Bloom. I’d say there’s a whole different change in the approach of the team regarding how money gets spent…

[notin]

MLBTR reports the Sox and Marlins are discussing a possible trade involving Casas. (Remember, I was called crazy for suggesting he might be traded.)

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/marlins-have-pursued-triston-casas-in-trade-talks-with-red-sox.html

 

I have to think any trade of Casas would involve a top SP'er coming to the Sox, not named Alcantara. Lopez only has 2 years remaining and Rogers, Luzardo and Garnett all have questions and are not really "aces."

 

We do have Turner to play 1B, and if we acquire a RF'er, we could play Dugo in LF, where he belongs, and Yoshida at DH. perhaps where he belongs.

 

Maybe we take on A Garcia's contract to lessen the return. Apparently, MIA likes Rafaela, too.

 

I'd love to see a deal centered around a SP'er from MIA, A Garcia and M Rojas for Rafaela and maybe Duran/Dalbec/Murphy types, but if it takes Casas, then we would not need to take Garcia.

 

 

Well, that article says the Marlins want Casas. Nowhere does it say Boston is amenable…

[moonslav59]

You are really patting yourself on the back on a report?

 

No. Again with the strawman.

 

I never said I wanted Casas traded or that we would, and he may never b e traded.

 

I said all long we needed an ace, and trading for one seemed like the best way to do it. To get top talent, we'd need to trade top talent, and Casas made more sense than Mayer, because it seemed Bogey was all but gone, after the Story signing.

 

I suggested they may think about trading Casas, and now it is reported they are in talks. You are the one so high on "reports." not me.

 

I hope they don't trade Casas.

 

I would not mind seeing a trade centered on Rafaela for Luzardo & MRojas or even Cabrera & Rojas. I've been talked out of wanting Lopez all that much, due to just 2 years of control, Garnett and Rogers look to iffy to give up Casas for, even if they add Rojas, Wendle and Berti.

 

No pat on the back, just a mention that I took flack for thinking it was a possibility, months ago.

 

(BTW, that also was when I still had false hopes on Dalbec as our 1Bman for years to come.)

[notin]

I totally get this point, and agree that this is probably how Sox management views it.

 

I also think Sox management places the farm and long term future as the highest priority beyond maximizing profits.

 

To me, it's about getting to the point of- being "highly competitive," and this is where I veer away from many here and likely Sox management. Almost from mid June on, my gut said there was no chance this team was going to win a ring, even if Sale, paxton and others returned and did well. I know that is not a scientific approach, but I was certain we'd not win a ring in 2022. By mid July it was a lock, IMO. It seemed blatantly obvious. Yes, just a few games behind in the WC seemed attainable, despite there being 3-4 or more teams b etween us and that last slot at any given time.

 

It's not hindsighting for me. I'm not puffing my chest out and trying to claim I was right and all of you were wrong. I was dead wrong about our chances back in March, and I probably predicted more wins by that team than most others, here, so it's not about me rubbing anyone's faces in the end results, but even just a simple JD trade to get us under the tax line would have helped in many ways. I had hoped for much more, but I understand why they didn't have a fire sale.

 

It would be interesting to know, if anyone in Sox management was lobbying for a fire sale, but were overruled.

 

 

It all comes down to hire one defined “competitive.”

 

Bloom’s job hinges on Henry agreeing with his definition…

[moonslav59]

Well, that article says the Marlins want Casas. Nowhere does it say Boston is amenable…

 

No, but the word "discussions" does make one wonder about the "amenable" aspect of the talks, if the report is even accurate.

[notin]

That’s just recency. Two facts:

 

1. The Sox dropped off by a larger margin from 2018 to 2019 than they did from 2021 to 2021.

 

2. The Sox have a better W-L record during DD’s time in Philly than the Phillies do.

 

The big change isn’t just replacing DD with Bloom. I’d say there’s a whole different change in the approach of the team regarding how money gets spent…

 

By 2021 to 2021, I mean 2021 to 2022. Sometimes the Edit feature just didn’t work…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not trading Casas, but if Boston does, it better be for Alcantara and not a #2 or #3.

 

I'd rather trade Mayer for Alcantara. At least the Sox have other top prospects that play SS.

[Old Red]

No. Again with the strawman.

 

I never said I wanted Casas traded or that we would, and he may never b e traded.

 

I said all long we needed an ace, and trading for one seemed like the best way to do it. To get top talent, we'd need to trade top talent, and Casas made more sense than Mayer, because it seemed Bogey was all but gone, after the Story signing.

 

I suggested they may think about trading Casas, and now it is reported they are in talks. You are the one so high on "reports." not me.

 

I hope they don't trade Casas.

 

I would not mind seeing a trade centered on Rafaela for Luzardo & MRojas or even Cabrera & Rojas. I've been talked out of wanting Lopez all that much, due to just 2 years of control, Garnett and Rogers look to iffy to give up Casas for, even if they add Rojas, Wendle and Berti.

 

No pat on the back, just a mention that I took flack for thinking it was a possibility, months ago.

 

(BTW, that also was when I still had false hopes on Dalbec as our 1Bman for years to come.)

I never said, or implied that you wanted Casas traded, but only that you mentioned that he might. Remember there were reports that the Red Sox were close to resigning Bogey too, which couldn’t have been further than the truth.

[notin]

No, but the word "discussions" does make one wonder about the "amenable" aspect of the talks, if the report is even accurate.

 

 

Until a deal is in place, I don’t make much of these. If true, at least it means pitching is a focus…

[notin]

I never said, or implied that you wanted Casas traded, but only that you mentioned that he might. Remember there were reports that the Red Sox were close to resigning Bogey too, which couldn’t have been further than the truth.

 

This reports were apparently thrown out there by Boras to drive up the price. The Sox has apparently already realized no deal would take place…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Until a deal is in place, I don’t make much of these. If true, at least it means pitching is a focus…

 

Why -- we already have six fours and fives (but I'm a gin dummy)

[Tedballgame]

No, but the word "discussions" does make one wonder about the "amenable" aspect of the talks, if the report is even accurate.

 

If Miami wants to throw in Alcantara, fine.

[moonslav59]

That’s just recency. Two facts:

 

1. The Sox dropped off by a larger margin from 2018 to 2019 than they did from 2021 to 2021.

 

2. The Sox have a better W-L record during DD’s time in Philly than the Phillies do.

 

The big change isn’t just replacing DD with Bloom. I’d say there’s a whole different change in the approach of the team regarding how money gets spent…

 

Indeed, and the shifted farm building priority that actually began during DD's last 1.5 years in BOS. No major prospects have been traded away sine the 2018 deadline, and one could argue Beeks and others traded, then, were not top prospects either.

 

1. Limited winter spending budgets, at least up to the March 2022 Story signing, and still no real large and long contract since Price.

2. Intense focus on rebuilding the farm and not trading any top prospects higher than Beeks or Aldo Ramirez since the Sale, Kimbrel or Pomeranz trades.

3. No additions from the existing farm, other than Houck, since the Devers call up in mid 2017. He was acquired in 2013, so nearly 10 years of no major farm additions that impacted the ML club.

 

Seriously, what sort of great expectations could anyone realistically have after the 2019 season?

 

It's been 2 seasons since 2020, and we really expected greatness in 2 short years, despite those 3 factors?

 

No, the problem could not possible be mistaken expectations: it has to be on the GM given an impossible task. Yes, that makes more sense and takes the heat of us having to admit we were wrong in having high hopes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This reports were apparently thrown out there by Boras to drive up the price. The Sox has apparently already realized no deal would take place…

 

The Sox are reportedly deep in talks about being shallow in talks

[moonslav59]

I never said, or implied that you wanted Casas traded, but only that you mentioned that he might. Remember there were reports that the Red Sox were close to resigning Bogey too, which couldn’t have been further than the truth.

 

I never mentioned he "might b e traded." That's strawman. I suggested it would take a trade like casas to get an ace, and that I preferred it being Casas over Mayer- the only two worthy of getting an ace.

 

Geeesh.

 

Again, you are the "reports" guy, not me.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are reportedly deep in talks about being shallow in talks

 

Love it!

[notin]

If Miami wants to throw in Alcantara, fine.

 

One thing we do know is that is not happening.

 

To me, this comes down to who Miami does offer…

[Old Red]

I never mentioned he "might b e traded." That's strawman. I suggested it would take a trade like casas to get an ace, and that I preferred it being Casas over Mayer- the only two worthy of getting an ace.

 

Geeesh.

 

Again, you are the "reports" guy, not me.

You’re the only guy who can misread a room more than Bloom. Congrats on that.

[moonslav59]

You’re the only guy who can misread a room more than Bloom. Congrats on that.

 

Yes, your strawman misread the room. You finally got one right.

 

Congrats!

[moonslav59]

If the Sox end up trading Casas, I will not say or brag that I was right, because I wouldn't be right (or wrong.)

 

I never predicted we would trade Casas or even imply that we might trade him.

 

I merely suggested it would be a way to acquire an ace other than by free agency, and it still is a way.

 

I'm less inclined to support the idea, now that Dalbec's stock has fallen, but now that no free agent aces are left, it's the only way, other than trading Mayer, to get an ace, this winter. With Bogey gone, trading Mayer would be crazy. With Turner on the roster, trading Casas over Mayer makes more sense, but I still would not do it, unless Alcantara came back.

[Bobe2]

That’s just recency. Two facts:

 

1. The Sox dropped off by a larger margin from 2018 to 2019 than they did from 2021 to 2021.

 

2. The Sox have a better W-L record during DD’s time in Philly than the Phillies do.

 

The big change isn’t just replacing DD with Bloom. I’d say there’s a whole different change in the approach of the team regarding how money gets spent…

 

How did DD get into this or anyone else, I just made remark about the way the team is being run as a business and loss of revenue and you guys start comparing, I’m just saying one business prospered and ones failing how long will the failing business put up with the trend

[Bobe2]

To be ranked down there with the bottom feeders of MLB is an insult and embarrassment to the Red Sox organization. I hope it serves as motivation to management and players to go out and prove this wrong.

 

I think this is more on management to do something

[moonslav59]

How did DD get into this or anyone else, I just made remark about the way the team is being run as a business and loss of revenue and you guys start comparing, I’m just saying one business prospered and ones failing how long will the failing business put up with the trend

 

How a business got to where it is matters, and sometimes it goes back farther than 1-2 years or even 3-4 years.

 

If you want to think of the Red Sox as a business, then are they really failing on profit-making as we suck?

[Bobe2]

OK, but as we know, there are a lot of fluctuations in the business of sport. The Red Sox did made it to the ALCS in 2021. And if they make the playoffs in 2023, Bloom will be 2 for 4 in playoff appearances and suddenly assessments of him will look much better.

 

Yes, that's a big if right now. But it does illustrate how fast things can change.

 

Unless management does the unexpected before the season starts I don’t see this team having much of a chance making the playoffs, even with the new schedule, Texas, Angles and Seattle have all improved so has Toronto, New York, Tampa and Cleveland, and to be honest this team doesn’t look as strong as last years team

[harmony]

The 2023 Red Sox should have the benefit of low expectations.