A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2018 Devers, YR1 $564,000 Played in 121 games, OPS .731 OPS+ 94

2019 Devers, YR2 $614,000 Played in 156 games, OPS .916 OPS+ 132

 

This is where we missed our opportunity.

 

In blindsight, we now know Bloom was never going to extend anyone long and large in his first months on the job.

 

The very concept of Bloom was and still is to cut spending, add quantity over quality, apply some cheap Halloween make-up and call it a costume.

[notin]

In blindsight, we now know Bloom was never going to extend anyone long and large in his first months on the job.

 

The very concept of Bloom was and still is to cut spending, add quantity over quality, apply some cheap Halloween make-up and call it a costume.

 

He’s just doing what Rachel Phelps wants…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We have two years to develop additional pitching depth so that we can say goodbyes to Sales (34) $25.6M, Jansen (35) $16.0M and Martin (37) $7.5M. This is Barnes (33) $9.375M last year, another overpaid contract (albeit gamble taken and gamble lost when extended).

 

It would help if Bello and Whitlock become fixtures as starters.

 

Bello and Whitlock need to be more than just light fixtures. They need to be klieg lights and strobe lights...

[moonslav59]

WAR says that Bogaerts's bat much more than makes up for his defense, which is actually about average as far as I can see.

 

It's with guys like Bogaerts that WAR is a very helpful tool, IMHO.

 

WAR rewards durability, too, which is a good thing.

 

The defensive metrics are wildly split on Bogey.

 

B-R had him at a +0.5 dWAR before 2022, and his +1.3 moves him up to a career 1.8, but one could argue his numbers when on the shift moved him into plus territory, but certainly, B-R has him near average.

 

Fangraphs had him with a negative UZR/150 before his _4.7 in 2022 moved him to +0.9 career- again, one wonders about the shift numbers, but UZR/150 has him near average- career.

 

The DRS metric has never been kind to Bogey, until his +5 in 2023. He was minus, 5, 4, 9, 8, 11, 10, 3 and 5 in his previous seasons and is near the bottom of the pack at -50 career.

 

All-in-all, I'd say he has been slightly below average to a clear below average, if you take away the shift plus values. As he ages and with the shift no longer allowed, my guess is his numbers will look pretty bad on fangraphs, going forward, assuming he stays at SS on his new team that has 17 SSs on their roster.

 

Yes, his offense and durability bring him to a huge plus value, and WAR captures that very well.

 

I'm highly biased on SS defense, but I still will miss Bogey, dearly.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He’s just doing what Rachel Phelps wants…

 

How could Steinbrenner trade Jay Buhner for Rachel Phelps!

[notin]

How could Steinbrenner trade Jay Buhner for Rachel Phelps!

 

I thought you a of all people here would get that reference…

Edited January 1, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

Bello and Whitlock need to be more than just light fixtures. They need to be klieg lights and strobe lights...

 

We'll not only need Bello and Whitlock as studs, but a few others to rise and shine...

 

Maybe one or two from Crawford, Winckowski and Seabold to settle into a 5th starter role or a capable long relief arm.

 

Maybe one or two from Kelly, German, Ort, DHern and others to fill key pen roles, perhaps not top closer levels.

 

Maybe one or two from Mata, Walter, Murphy, Santos or Drohan to fill a #3 or #4 slot in the rotation, with a #2 not out of the question.

 

Maybe one or two farther away prospects to fill in a key role 2 or more years from now from Wikelman, Uberstine, Perales, Rodriguez-Cruz, Paez, Luis Guerrero, Ryan Fernandez and Taylor Broadway/Angel Bastardo/ Juan Encarnacion/Noah Dean/Hunter Dobbins/Jacob Webb...

[Bellhorn04]

WAR rewards durability, too, which is a good thing.

 

The defensive metrics are wildly split on Bogey.

 

B-R had him at a +0.5 dWAR before 2022, and his +1.3 moves him up to a career 1.8, but one could argue his numbers when on the shift moved him into plus territory, but certainly, B-R has him near average.

 

Fangraphs had him with a negative UZR/150 before his _4.7 in 2022 moved him to +0.9 career- again, one wonders about the shift numbers, but UZR/150 has him near average- career.

 

The DRS metric has never been kind to Bogey, until his +5 in 2023. He was minus, 5, 4, 9, 8, 11, 10, 3 and 5 in his previous seasons and is near the bottom of the pack at -50 career.

 

All-in-all, I'd say he has been slightly below average to a clear below average, if you take away the shift plus values. As he ages and with the shift no longer allowed, my guess is his numbers will look pretty bad on fangraphs, going forward, assuming he stays at SS on his new team that has 17 SSs on their roster.

 

I don't understand the shift impact, I have to admit. Hasn't a lot of shifting been going on for years now? And wouldn't other shortstops benefit just as much? Why is Bogaerts singled out as a guy whose numbers were boosted by the shift? I don't get it.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's another question. Is Devers a better third baseman than Bogaerts is a shortstop?

 

And if not, why do we care about keeping Devers? Shouldn't we be packing his bags for him?

[moonslav59]

I don't understand the shift impact, I have to admit. Hasn't a lot of shifting been going on for years now? And wouldn't other shortstops benefit just as much? Why is Bogaerts singled out as a guy whose numbers were boosted by the shift? I don't get it.

 

I believe he was helped more by the shift than other SSs. It might be a fluke, and maybe the sample size is too small to make a major difference.

 

[notin]

Here's another question. Is Devers a better third baseman than Bogaerts is a shortstop?

 

And if not, why do we care about keeping Devers? Shouldn't we be packing his bags for him?

 

Last April, he was offered a contract similar to a 1b, as the Sox felt that is where his future is. No idea if Rafael rejected the notion of being a 1b, but he certainly rejected the notion of being paid like one…

[moonslav59]

Here's another question. Is Devers a better third baseman than Bogaerts is a shortstop?

 

And if not, why do we care about keeping Devers? Shouldn't we be packing his bags for him?

 

Devers has been a bit up and down on his defense- much like Bogey, but he seems to have settled into about an average defensive profile.

 

What's the difference?

 

1. SS is the most important defensive position on the field, perhaps along with catching. 3B is maybe 4th to 6th most important behind SS, C, CF and maybe 2B or even RF in Fenway.

 

2. Devers is much younger and may improve on defense, but would also have way more extension years within rime than Bogey.

 

3. Offense:

 

wRC+

Devers

132 age 22 (94 OPS+)

108 age 23 (107- short season)

133 age 24 (134)

141 age 25 (141)

 

Bogey

95 age 24 (95 OPS+)

133 age 25 (135)

141 age 26 (139)

129 age 27 (128)

130 age 28 (129)

134 age 29 (131)

 

It's a big risk, but I like Devers more than Bogey. What position will Bogey be playing in a year or two?

 

[Bellhorn04]

Last April, he was offered a contract similar to a 1b, as the Sox felt that is where his future is. No idea if Rafael rejected the notion of being a 1b, but he certainly rejected the notion of being paid like one…

 

It's pretty hard to see the Sox keeping him. Because I have to believe there's a big gulf between what they value him at, and what one or more lunatic owners will be more willing to offer him if he hits the market.

[moonslav59]

It's pretty hard to see the Sox keeping him. Because I have to believe there's a big gulf between what they value him at, and what one or more lunatic owners will be more willing to offer him if he hits the market.

 

It would have to involve Devers willingness to take less than his market projection OR valuing the security of having a major contract signed a year earlier, in case of injury or a major decline in 2023 and the benefit of having more money up front in a high inflation era.

 

It would have to involve the Sox going above their "comfort zone" and value setting formula.

 

Needing both does make the odds look long, but there has to be some major pressure on Sox management to repair their image. I'm not sure what affect this has on the top brass. It has never seemed to phase them, before, but this is about as bad as I've seen it.

[Bellhorn04]

Needing both does make the odds look long, but there has to be some major pressure on Sox management to repair their image. I'm not sure what affect this has on the top brass. It has never seemed to phase them, before, but this is about as bad as I've seen it.

 

And this offseason is showing that they're really sticking to their guns about doing what isn't popular.

 

Trading Devers would really put an exclamation point on it.

 

Are they prepared to take the firestorm that would follow?

[notin]

It would have to involve Devers willingness to take less than his market projection OR valuing the security of having a major contract signed a year earlier, in case of injury or a major decline in 2023 and the benefit of having more money up front in a high inflation era.

 

It would have to involve the Sox going above their "comfort zone" and value setting formula.

 

Needing both does make the odds look long, but there has to be some major pressure on Sox management to repair their image. I'm not sure what affect this has on the top brass. It has never seemed to phase them, before, but this is about as bad as I've seen it.

 

If Henry stays true to form, they’ll trade Devers and then spend the rest of the off-season trashing him on his way out the door…

[moonslav59]

And this offseason is showing that they're really sticking to their guns about doing what isn't popular.

 

Trading Devers would really put an exclamation point on it.

 

Are they prepared to take the firestorm that would follow?

 

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I'm banking on them snapping out of this funk and realizing this firestorm may be so intense, they cannot come out of it.

 

If they start seeing season ticket holders drop in the next couple months and NESN subscriptions are way down, maybe, just maybe...

[moonslav59]

If Henry stays true to form, they’ll trade Devers and then spend the rest of the off-season trashing him on his way out the door…

 

Have they ever said what crazy number BorA$$ was demanding for Bogey?

 

I wonder why not, or maybe the number was not so crazy, and it would make them look worse than they already do to most fans.

[notin]

Have they ever said what crazy number BorA$$ was demanding for Bogey?

 

I wonder why not, or maybe the number was not so crazy, and it would make them look worse than they already do to most fans.

 

It stopped making sense to call Boras insane for that asking price once San Diego met it…

[moonslav59]

I do think if the Sox leaked that BorA$$ wanted $225M/8 at the Story signing and $250M/10 right before he became a FA, that might have helped them look a little better not agreeing with this.

 

If the actual numbers were lower or much lower, that might be why we're not seeing any leaks.

[notin]

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I'm banking on them snapping out of this funk and realizing this firestorm may be so intense, they cannot come out of it.

 

If they start seeing season ticket holders drop in the next couple months and NESN subscriptions are way down, maybe, just maybe...

 

Ownership learned a long, long time ago that winning fixes everything. How many people have ever looked back at the Nomar trade and thought “So we gave up one of the Holy Trinity of shortstops and got back an ordinary starting SS and a good glove/no hit first baseman? And we included the prospect?!?”

 

And you know why we don’t look at out that way? Because winning fixes everything…

[Bellhorn04]

I do think if the Sox leaked that BorA$$ wanted $225M/8 at the Story signing and $250M/10 right before he became a FA, that might have helped them look a little better not agreeing with this.

 

If the actual numbers were lower or much lower, that might be why we're not seeing any leaks.

 

Again, the only thing that's been reported is that the Red Sox offered $30 million and one more year. If there had been a counter-offer from Boras we'd know about it. It appears that Bogey did the same thing as Lester, i.e. he ignored it.

[Bellhorn04]

Ownership learned a long, long time ago that winning fixes everything. How many people have ever looked back at the Nomar trade and thought “So we gave up one of the Holy Trinity of shortstops and got back an ordinary starting SS and a good glove/no hit first baseman? And we included the prospect?!?”

 

And you know why we don’t look at out that way? Because winning fixes everything…

 

Yes, winning fixes everything, but the wisdom of our team and our ownership is thrown into question by the 5 last place finishes in the last 11 years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ownership learned a long, long time ago that winning fixes everything. How many people have ever looked back at the Nomar trade and thought “So we gave up one of the Holy Trinity of shortstops and got back an ordinary starting SS and a good glove/no hit first baseman? And we included the prospect?!?”

 

And you know why we don’t look at out that way? Because winning fixes everything…

 

True, but a big part of that was because Orlando Cabrera was just a better combination on the diamond and in the dugout (I won't say on airplanes or hotels...). In the field he was consistent and dependable, and contributed to batting order rallies, and handshake celebrations.

 

Point being: you still have to get something good back in a trade to have the best chance at winning.

 

As for the new no-shift rules -- and this applies to Devers -- defense is now less of a premium for third basemen, who no longer will have to also man shortstop and the whole left side when lefty pull hitters are up. The hot corner can now revert back to a step and a dive...

[moonslav59]

Ownership learned a long, long time ago that winning fixes everything. How many people have ever looked back at the Nomar trade and thought “So we gave up one of the Holy Trinity of shortstops and got back an ordinary starting SS and a good glove/no hit first baseman? And we included the prospect?!?”

 

And you know why we don’t look at out that way? Because winning fixes everything…

 

I've said this, too, and winning in 2013 got people over the mega Dodger trade. Winning in 2018 got most fans over the Lester fiasco.

 

Losing stars and sucking changes a lot.

[notin]

True, but a big part of that was because Orlando Cabrera was just a better combination on the diamond and in the dugout (I won't say on airplanes or hotels...). In the field he was consistent and dependable, and contributed to batting order rallies, and handshake celebrations.

 

Point being: you still have to get something good back in a trade to have the best chance at winning.

 

As for the new no-shift rules -- and this applies to Devers -- defense is now less of a premium for third basemen, who no longer will have to also man shortstop and the whole left side when lefty pull hitters are up. The hot corner can now revert back to a step and a dive...

 

Was he really better in the dugout?

 

The whole “Nomar sulking in the dugout” appears to be not only massively overblown, but potentially completely false.

 

I don’t know what Cabrera was like in Boston, but he eventually made his way out to Chicago, and he wore out his welcome FAST with a reported selfish attitude. And remember, Chicago is a city that loved AJ Pierzynski. But not Orlando Cabrera…

[notin]

I've said this, too, and winning in 2013 got people over the mega Dodger trade. Winning in 2018 got most fans over the Lester fiasco.

 

Losing stars and sucking changes a lot.

 

 

Exactly.

 

Look at the AGon trade. Who did the Sox get back? I think the best player was James Loney.

 

But they won a World Series 14 months later. So it was a good trade…

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly.

 

Look at the AGon trade. Who did the Sox get back? I think the best player was James Loney.

 

But they won a World Series 14 months later. So it was a good trade…

 

Most people liked that trade, though, and realized the Dodgers were doing us a favor.

[notin]

Most people liked that trade, though, and realized the Dodgers were doing us a favor.

 

 

But just looking at the trade itself, the Sox got back nothing. They just saved a lot of cash. That’s all…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Was he really better in the dugout?

 

The whole “Nomar sulking in the dugout” appears to be not only massively overblown, but potentially completely false.

 

I don’t know what Cabrera was like in Boston, but he eventually made his way out to Chicago, and he wore out his welcome FAST with a reported selfish attitude. And remember, Chicago is a city that loved AJ Pierzynski. But not Orlando Cabrera…

 

Let's put it this way: remember all those months in '04 when Nomar -- smiling and whooping -- greeted teammates at the plate, high-fiving, high-tenning, backwards knuckling, fake waving, two-stepping, moon-walking, face-whomping, robot-rapping... daily?

 

Me neither.