A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Absolutely no interest in trading Casas. 6 years of team control. Rafaela is major league ready defensively. Go buy a shortstop. We still have money left.

 

I can't see Bloom trading either one of them. It sounds like the Marlins were the ones asking for Casas in a deal for a pitcher, which makes sense.

[moonslav59]

Elvis Andrus still needs work…

 

Indeed but why trade for a 2B/3Bman, unless we are moving Devers or want to move/DFA Arroyo?

 

Trade for MRojas not Wendle.

 

Sign Andrus not a 2Bman.

[moonslav59]

I can't see Bloom trading either one of them. It sounds like the Marlins were the ones asking for Casas in a deal for a pitcher, which makes sense.

 

Agreed. Rafaela, maybe, but they want ML ready guys, and he may be a year away.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Casas and Mayer in the infield, Rafaela and Bleis in the outfield, Bello and Mata on the mound.

 

That could be the core of the next sustained contenders in Boston. All will be paid minimum wage, but will be candidates for reasonable, pre-arb extensions.

 

If that's the plan, the only way any of them gets traded is for others who play different positions but have the same salary considerations.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela plus Dalbec for Edward Cabrera and Wendle…

 

Cabrera 2022:

4.59 FIP

4.14 bb/9

207 BABIP

0.3 fWAR

 

I'm not trading Rafaela for that guy.

[mvp 78]

Reading some opinions on Henry prepping for a sale of the Sox. Anyone else think this is coming or even wanted? Henry is the best owner the Sox have had, but his hiring of bloom and passing on signing big ticket home grown players makes me wonder if they’re onto something.

 

I don't see it. He sold a portion of Liverpool because of the riskiness of ownership in that league (regulation).

[Old Red]

JH was booed at Fenway yesterday at the Hockey game. Owner of the enemy in his own ballpark. Well deserved.

[notin]

Cabrera 2022:

4.59 FIP

4.14 bb/9

207 BABIP

0.3 fWAR

 

I'm not trading Rafaela for that guy.

 

Again, 98 career IP…

[mvp 78]

Again, 98 career IP…

 

AAA: 4.8 BB/9 over 2 seasons

MLB: 4.8 BB/9 over 2 seasons

 

Let's see what FanGraphs scouting report from last June had to say.

 

The oft-injured Cabrera began the season with a biceps injury that prevented him from pitching at an affiliate until late April and it wasn’t long before he hit the IL again with elbow tendinitis, which he had just begun to rehab back from immediately prior to list publication. This is the sixth (!) consecutive season Cabrera has had injury issues that brought about at least one IL stint and his second consecutive year with a biceps issue that delayed the start of his season.

 

His command and control, both of which were firmly in the average bucket as a younger minor leaguer, regressed mightily during his brief 2021 time in the majors, which may have been a result of him being amped up or simply trying to get too cute around the edges to avoid his fastball getting hit.

 

Cabrera has an All-Star starter’s stuff, and Reds starter Luis Castillo presents pretty good mechanical precedent for someone like Cabrera succeeding, but there are obviously questions about his ability to hold up over the course of an entire season, as between injuries and conservative workloads, 100.1 is the most innings he’s thrown in a season, and that was all the way back in 2018.

 

He ended up throwing a whopping 110.1 last season.

[notin]

AAA: 4.8 BB/9 over 2 seasons

MLB: 4.8 BB/9 over 2 seasons

 

Let's see what FanGraphs scouting report from last June had to say.

 

The oft-injured Cabrera began the season with a biceps injury that prevented him from pitching at an affiliate until late April and it wasn’t long before he hit the IL again with elbow tendinitis, which he had just begun to rehab back from immediately prior to list publication. This is the sixth (!) consecutive season Cabrera has had injury issues that brought about at least one IL stint and his second consecutive year with a biceps issue that delayed the start of his season.

 

His command and control, both of which were firmly in the average bucket as a younger minor leaguer, regressed mightily during his brief 2021 time in the majors, which may have been a result of him being amped up or simply trying to get too cute around the edges to avoid his fastball getting hit.

 

Cabrera has an All-Star starter’s stuff, and Reds starter Luis Castillo presents pretty good mechanical precedent for someone like Cabrera succeeding, but there are obviously questions about his ability to hold up over the course of an entire season, as between injuries and conservative workloads, 100.1 is the most innings he’s thrown in a season, and that was all the way back in 2018.

 

He ended up throwing a whopping 110.1 last season.

 

Yes he’s not perfect.

 

And Rafaela had K rates of 24% in high A and 20% in AA. Both players have promise and pitfalls…

[redsoxrules]

If I read correctly as it stands right now the Sox will be #13 in team payroll. For a team that was constantly near the top this is very interesting. Could Henry be selling the team?

[Old Red]

If I read correctly as it stands right now the Sox will be #13 in team payroll. For a team that was constantly near the top this is very interesting. Could Henry be selling the team?

 

If someone can afford to buy the team I’m pretty sure they can afford to pay the payroll no matter what it is.

[Bellhorn04]

If I read correctly as it stands right now the Sox will be #13 in team payroll. For a team that was constantly near the top this is very interesting. Could Henry be selling the team?

 

I don't think so. I expect them to spend right up to the tax threshold.

 

I don't think they would have have signed Yoshida to a 5 year deal that cost $105 million if they were selling.

[moonslav59]

If I read correctly as it stands right now the Sox will be #13 in team payroll. For a team that was constantly near the top this is very interesting. Could Henry be selling the team?

 

The Sox may not be done spending. A Devers extension would likely put them neat top 6, if it starts in 2023.

 

A trade for a big salary could happen.

 

13th is something new and concerning, if new stay there.

 

The amount of teams going nutty with spending has grown. That may be more of the reason we may drop in the spending rankings than us spending significantly less. We kinds figured we would reset, but most felt we'd spend up close to the line, without going over.

[moonslav59]

I don't think so. I expect them to spend right up to the tax threshold.

 

I don't think they would have have signed Yoshida to a 5 year deal that cost $105 million if they were selling.

 

Nor Story to 6 years, less than 10 months ago.

[Old Red]

I don't think so. I expect them to spend right up to the tax threshold.

 

I don't think they would have have signed Yoshida to a 5 year deal that cost $105 million if they were selling.

 

I repeat if someone can afford to buy the Red Sox they can afford to pay whatever the payroll is. I don’t see who the Red Sox signed, or didn’t sign have anything to do with selling the team, or not.

[mvp 78]

If I read correctly as it stands right now the Sox will be #13 in team payroll. For a team that was constantly near the top this is very interesting. Could Henry be selling the team?

 

No.

 

The Dodgers are in 7th place and projected to be right at the luxury tax cap and only about 20M ahead of the Sox. Teams 5-15 are within 20M of each other in terms of projected salary and tax implications for the most part once ARB raises are factored in.

 

And if you look at luxury tax left over:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/

[Old Red]

Nor Story to 6 years, less than 10 months ago.

 

So, because the Red Sox signed Story last offseason that means Henry wouldn’t sell the Red Sox now? That was a year ago, and Henry could have actually thought of a good idea to sell the club.

[mvp 78]

The Sox may not be done spending. A Devers extension would likely put them neat top 6, if it starts in 2023.

 

A trade for a big salary could happen.

 

13th is something new and concerning, if new stay there.

 

The amount of teams going nutty with spending has grown. That may be more of the reason we may drop in the spending rankings than us spending significantly less. We kinds figured we would reset, but most felt we'd spend up close to the line, without going over.

 

They still have wiggle room for more moves. They still have holes to fill. The offseason isn't over.

[Bellhorn04]

So, because the Red Sox signed Story last offseason that means Henry wouldn’t sell the Red Sox now? That was a year ago, and Henry could have actually thought of a good idea to sell the club.

 

Henry can sell the club whenever he wants. But what's the evidence he's planning to do so?

[moonslav59]

So, because the Red Sox signed Story last offseason that means Henry wouldn’t sell the Red Sox now? That was a year ago, and Henry could have actually thought of a good idea to sell the club.

 

1. It was 10 m9onths ago.

2. If he was thinking of selling the team, he might have begun planning on it 10 months ago or longer. (Maybe not.)

 

Nowhere did I say signing Story means he will not sell. Nice strawman, again.

[moonslav59]

Henry can sell the club whenever he wants. But what's the evidence he's planning to do so?

 

None- either way.

[moonslav59]

They still have wiggle room for more moves. They still have holes to fill. The offseason isn't over.

 

I think we will spend more, and may leave a buffer for deadline deals, if needed.

 

A Devers extension that begins in 2023, which might be a good idea, if if lessens the yearly tax line hits after 2023, could put us close to the tax line, by itself. (Maybe adding $12-16M more than his arb of $17.5M.)

 

We should have enough for Devers and Andrus, or just start the Devers deal in 2024.

[Old Red]

1. It was 10 m9onths ago.

2. If he was thinking of selling the team, he might have begun planning on it 10 months ago or longer. (Maybe not.)

 

Nowhere did I say signing Story means he will not sell. Nice strawman, again.

The Red Sox could have just spent $$600M resigning Bogey, and Raffy, and I don’t think it would have any effect one way, or the other on JH selling the Red Sox, or not.

[Old Red]

Henry can sell the club whenever he wants. But what's the evidence he's planning to do so?

 

No evidence, but wishful thinking on my part.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox could have just spent $$600M resigning Bogey, and Raffy, and I don’t think it would have any effect one way, or the other on JH selling the Red Sox, or not.

 

Maybe- maybe not. Teams that have sold in the past have tended to not spend big beforehand or trade away big salary commitments. At least that's how I see it. Maybe, I'm wrong.

[moonslav59]

No evidence, but wishful thinking on my part.

 

Be careful what you wish for.

[Old Red]

Maybe- maybe not. Teams that have sold in the past have tended to not spend big beforehand or trade away big salary commitments. At least that's how I see it. Maybe, I'm wrong.

 

Why would Henry care one way, or the other what the payroll would be if he was going to sell, because I can’t see why it would bother someone wanting to buy the team.

[Old Red]

Be careful what you wish for.

 

That could go both ways like someone wishing for a Bloom.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Another couple of new numbers showed up today, so far

7 Yoshida

12 Wong

16 Duran

22 Whitlock

25 Winckowski

55 Martin

57 Rodriguez

 

Have no fear, all of you old farts can reuse your Trot Nixon jerseys again.