A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[a700hitter]

We won 78 last year.

 

We've lost Bogaerts, JDM, Vazquez, Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill.

 

That's a total of 13 fWAR gone.

 

I think if the season started today we're looking at about 70 wins. Assuming they don't trade Devers.

 

There has to be more coming.

or maybe not. Senga came off the board going to the Mets. But we have Paxton who has made a pretty good living cashing checks on the IL. Well, it was still the DL when he started cashing his checks. And he maybe he will have Sale to hang out with as he has turned into Mr. Glass.

[Nick]

We won 78 last year.

 

We've lost Bogaerts, JDM, Vazquez, Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill.

 

That's a total of 13 fWAR gone.

 

I think if the season started today we're looking at about 70 wins. Assuming they don't trade Devers.

 

There has to be more coming.

 

Maybe I'm way off but I really did not see drop off in catching, statistically speaking.

 

There has to be some leap of faith. I would hope Sale can replace Eovaldi. We have entire year of Bello. I believe he'll be as good as Pivetta. His stuff certainly is there.

 

We also will have whole year of Whitlock. I would hope he can equal or better say Hill's contribution. Put it in another way

 

2023 (Sale+Bello+Whitlock+Paxton) = Eovaldi+Hill+less than whole year of Bello and Whitlock in 2022.

 

We need to add another starter to replace Wacha.

 

Xander gone obviously is a problem. Is it possible that incremental improvements at other positions plus bigger contribution from Story at 2B will get us close to 2022 offensive production? Again, I have to believe there will be another addition to the position roster.

 

Thus, my whole point is (which I did not say) if offense and starting pitching productivity remain relatively equal, will the difference in pen production get us to 10 more wins? Or maybe it will provide us with 15 game improvement less 5 game reduction from other areas, still netting us 10 game improvement.

Edited December 11, 2022 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe I'm way off but I really did not see drop off in catching, statistically speaking.

 

2022 pitching ERA by month:

 

Apr 3.32

May 4.44

Jun 3.02

Jul 6.30

Aug 5.36

Sep 4.48

 

So the worst month was while Vaz was still with us.

 

But August and September weren't very good either.

 

Catcher ERA for 2022:

 

Wong 3.72

Vaz 4.21

Plaw 4.32

McGuire 6.33

 

Maybe there is some hope with Wong.

[Nick]

Blown Saves in 2022

Rays 36 80

Marlins 31 71

Brewers 30 81

Cubs 30 74

Rangers 29 64

Red Sox 28 65

Pirates 28 60

Angels 27 65

Twins 27 64

Braves 27 81

Arizona 26 58

Blue Jays 25 70

Athletics 24 57

White Sox 23 70

Padres 22 69

Reds 22 52

Giants 21 61

Royals 21 53

Rockies 21 62

Yankees 21 66

Dodgers 18 61

Phillies 18 59

Guardians 18 68

Nationals 17 45

Tigers 16 53

Cardinals 16 53

Astros 16 68

Mets 15 55

Mariners 15 54

Orioles 13 58

[Nick]

Tanner Houck was 8-9 in save opportunities. Hansel Robles blew 6 saves. Strahm was only 4-9 in save opportunities. My favorite whipping boy Brasier blew 4 saves.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MVP recently showed some stats on how average starting pitchers don't go much more than 5 IP anymore and that the Red Sox were average.

 

Maybe it just seemed like Boston starters were causing bullpen burnout during the Bloom Era... though there is evidence that Barnes starts hot and is always toast in August. But it could be the Sox rostered relievers just aren't durable for sustained contention. Then again, maybe below average meatballers give hitters more BP to be better prepared for late innings.

 

No one can argue that adding an innings eater to the rotation won't help preserve the bullpen, as well. The Sox need another starter with moreside.

[Larry Cook]

Note to Bloom.

 

Now is the time to extend Bello. When the season starts, offer him a 8 year deal. $80M should do it. We'll have 9 controllable years. That's how you gamble. He could have Tommy John and we'd still have 7 years of him.

 

Yes, I agree 100 percent. Lock up Bello tight as a drum now.

 

It is not only the rays we are being outsmarted by, it is also the braves.

 

And the braves would definitely lock up young talent like Bello and houck and Whitlock!

[moonslav59]

We won 78 last year.

 

We've lost Bogaerts, JDM, Vazquez, Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill.

 

That's a total of 13 fWAR gone.

 

I think if the season started today we're looking at about 70 wins. Assuming they don't trade Devers.

 

There has to be more coming.

 

I'm not trying to bash players on the way out or already out, but when we say names like Bogey, JD and Nate, we think of the 2018 or 2021 Nate, the 2018 and 2019 JD and the Bogey who hit 25+ Hrs with 100+ RBIs.

 

If you are going to take the win total from 2022 to work from and who we need to replace, you need to look at the 2022 Nate, Bogey and JD. True, replacing the 2022 Wacha, Hill and Strahm will not be easy. I think we replace Strahm and then some with the pen, and $40M does not seem like enough to replace others, but IMO, it does not look as bleak as you see it. Also, we are replacing JBJ, Cordero, Diekman, Robles, Davis, Sawamura and hopefully less games from Dalbec, Plawecki, Duran and Brasier.

 

This what we are replacing from 2022 and what we might be replacing them with:

 

The Good:

Nate (109 IP/4th most and 3.87 ERA and 20 GS) We don't need to replace 33 GS'd, but this will not be easy. Replace his 20 GS with 20 more from Whitlock.

 

Wacha (127 IP/2nd most and 3.32 ERA in 23 GS) Very difficult to replace, and as much as I like Bello, he will most likely not match those numbers, but he should be all that bad at coming somewhat close.

 

Hill (124 IP/3rd most and 4.27 ERA in 26 GS) It's hard to envision 26 starts by Sale, but that might be our only hope replacing Hill and making up for the downgrade from Wacha to Bello. Another hope would be to add a solid SP'er better than Hill was in '22

 

Strahm (45 IP/14th most and 3.83 ERA) replaced by Jansen- big plus

 

Bogey (631 PAs/2nd on team and .833 OPS- his OPS+ did not dip but his RBIs took a massive dive) You can't replace Bogey, in kind, without signing someone like Correa, and that ain't happening. Let's agree that we take a major hit at SS with someone like Andrus or Segura at 2B and Story at SS.

 

JD (596 PAs/4th in PAs with a .790 OPS- his OPS+ was his worst since 2013, not counting 2020 and his RBI total was less than half of 2018's total.) Call me crazy, but I think we can come close to replacing him with a platoon that can match .790 without any additions, and I won't use Yoshida at this slot to plug in- see JBJ/Duran & Co.

 

Vaz (318/8th most and .759 OPS) + Plawecki (175 PAs/15th and .574 OPS) Call me crazy, again, but I think the improved defense fro McGuire and maybe Wong can come close to making up for the offense lost by Vas, although Plawecki's OPS brought or catching OPS down quite a bit. Maybe we add a catcher, but I don't think it is a high priority. I accept the idea we a re stepping down, slightly, at catcher.

 

That's 7 decent to very good 2022 players we are replacing (I'm counting Vaz and Plawecki as one player, if you don't mind.)

 

Now, look at the okay of bad we are replacing, along with the expected less and more PAs from many players still in our system:

 

Pitching:

IP

62 (9th) Brasier 5.78 ERA (DFA or reduce his IP) replace with Joely.

54 (12th) Davis 5.47 ERA replace his and some of Brasier's IP with Martin- big plus

51 (13th) Sawamura 3.73 ERA replace with Martin

40 (15th) Danish 5.13 ERA replace with more IP by Crawford or Wink

38 (17th) Diekman 4.23 ERA replace with Kelly

28 (18th) Ort and 25 (19th) Robles replace with German and Mata

Others like Seabold, Bazrdo, Valdez and Familia (about 50 IP) repalced by more IP from Crawfor and Wink or Mata/Walter/Murphy

 

Does this make up for the differentials above on pitching?

 

Everyday Players: (I linked Plawecki with Vaz in the "good section.")

PAs

402 (5th) Kike .629 OPS with something closer to the 2021 Kike and maybe 550 PAs

396 (6th) Story .737 OPS with something like the pre-2022 Story and 550+ PAs

353 (7th) Dalbec .652 OPS with Casas- should be a major gain on O and D. Add most of Dalbec's PAs and some of Cordero's to the 95 Casas had and you get to 550+ PAs

290 (10th) JBJ .578 OPS with Yoshida - a major gain that could wipe out the O loss at SS

275 (11th) Cordero .697 OPS with Casas and Yoshida- major gain on O and D

235 (12th) Pham .672 OPS with, yes Yoshida again. It's 525 PAs between JBJ and Pham.- Add some from Cordero and you get to 600.

223 (13th) Duran at .645 can be made up with more PAs from Refsnyder- another plus.

 

It remains to be seen who has their IP and PAs slashed or increased, but we can assume most.

 

It doesn't look as dire as some think it is, to me, and we still have some moves to go.

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It doesn't look as dire as some think it is, to me, and we still have some moves to go.

 

 

 

The problem Red Sox fans might have with this last statement is that it could be cut and pasted from a year ago.

 

2021 offseason: Bloom says we're still shy a right-handed bat for RF; New pitchers are kind of old and broken down -- we need to add a proven starting pitcher; A closer for the bullpen is coming before Opening Day... right?

[moonslav59]

The problem Red Sox fans might have with this last statement is that it could be cut and pasted from a year ago.

 

2021 offseason: Bloom says we're still shy a right-handed bat for RF; New pitchers are kind of old and broken down -- we need to add a proven starting pitcher; A closer for the bullpen is coming before Opening Day... right?

 

...and before 2021 and 2013.

[S5Dewey]

The problem Red Sox fans might have with this last statement is that it could be cut and pasted from a year ago.

 

2021 offseason: Bloom says we're still shy a right-handed bat for RF; New pitchers are kind of old and broken down -- we need to add a proven starting pitcher; A closer for the bullpen is coming before Opening Day... right?

 

...and before 2021 and 2013.

 

We must like it. We keep believing it.

[notin]

The problem Red Sox fans might have with this last statement is that it could be cut and pasted from a year ago.

 

2021 offseason: Bloom says we're still shy a right-handed bat for RF; New pitchers are kind of old and broken down -- we need to add a proven starting pitcher; A closer for the bullpen is coming before Opening Day... right?

 

You think the Sox need a closer?

[moonslav59]

We must like it. We keep believing it.

 

I don't regret thinking we had hopes, this year. I never foresaw the decline by so many established players and a few approaching prime. In hindsight, maybe hoping Dalbec, Verdugo, and a few others improved was wishful thinking.

 

I still think the 2022 team looked better, on paper, than the 2021 team, but the game is not played on paper, and the declines and injuries were just too much to overcome.

[notin]

I don't regret thinking we had hopes, this year. I never foresaw the decline by so many established players and a few approaching prime. In hindsight, maybe hoping Dalbec, Verdugo, and a few others improved was wishful thinking.

 

I still think the 2022 team looked better, on paper, than the 2021 team, but the game is not played on paper, and the declines and injuries were just too much to overcome.

 

Who thought this team was going to struggle before 2022?

[moonslav59]

Who thought this team was going to struggle before 2022?

 

Go back and find the predicted win total thread.

[harmony]

From Sunday's MLB Trade Rumors chat with Mark Polishuk:

Bill

7:45 Why do the Red Sox operate like a small market team

 

Red Sox Fan

7:45 I’ve never felt lower as a fan. I feel like the Sox used to be in on every big name and weren’t afraid to bring in stars. What has changed?

 

Mark P

7:47 In fairness to the Red Sox, they did just spend $90MM on Yoshida and $32MM on Jansen, so it isn't like Boston is suddenly cutting payroll.

 

But, the team's continued willingness to let star players leave in free agency (and sometime alienate them along the way) doesn't make much sense to me.

https://live.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-14579.html

[jacksonianmarch]

Senga made too much sense for the Sox. Sox are trending to be absolutely abysmal this year. I knew they were rebuilding, but I’d have expected something more than an overpaid Japanese outfielder and an old man closer. Sox don’t appear to be in on Rodon. Maybe they re-up Eovaldi? It’s trending to be a very bad year in the Bean. And when the hockey and basketball teams are really good and the Sox aren’t, they lose viewership and you know how much Henry cares about that. It would not surprise me at all to see Bloom add more minor league pieces, get fired at end of 23 and have the Sox hire a DD type to start spending prospect capital for good players. Personally, I think they should stick with Bloom until the new core comes up and see how he manages fitting pieces around them

[moonslav59]

Senga made too much sense for the Sox. Sox are trending to be absolutely abysmal this year. I knew they were rebuilding, but I’d have expected something more than an overpaid Japanese outfielder and an old man closer. Sox don’t appear to be in on Rodon. Maybe they re-up Eovaldi? It’s trending to be a very bad year in the Bean. And when the hockey and basketball teams are really good and the Sox aren’t, they lose viewership and you know how much Henry cares about that. It would not surprise me at all to see Bloom add more minor league pieces, get fired at end of 23 and have the Sox hire a DD type to start spending prospect capital for good players. Personally, I think they should stick with Bloom until the new core comes up and see how he manages fitting pieces around them

 

A good thing to hear from you. Sounds a lot like pre-2021.

 

Don't expect the Sox to have so many injuries, next year, just because your Yanks are built for the IL. Yes, Paxton and Sale are expected, but not like the 6-9 players on the Yanks.

 

2021>2022

 

C =/

1B >>

2B >

SS

3B =

LF >>

CF >

RF >

DH =/

 

SP

RP>>

 

[Tedballgame]

Senga made too much sense for the Sox. Sox are trending to be absolutely abysmal this year. I knew they were rebuilding, but I’d have expected something more than an overpaid Japanese outfielder and an old man closer. Sox don’t appear to be in on Rodon. Maybe they re-up Eovaldi? It’s trending to be a very bad year in the Bean. And when the hockey and basketball teams are really good and the Sox aren’t, they lose viewership and you know how much Henry cares about that. It would not surprise me at all to see Bloom add more minor league pieces, get fired at end of 23 and have the Sox hire a DD type to start spending prospect capital for good players. Personally, I think they should stick with Bloom until the new core comes up and see how he manages fitting pieces around them

 

Probably better than getting smoked by the Astros every year.

[Tedballgame]

Senga made too much sense for the Sox. Sox are trending to be absolutely abysmal this year. I knew they were rebuilding, but I’d have expected something more than an overpaid Japanese outfielder and an old man closer. Sox don’t appear to be in on Rodon. Maybe they re-up Eovaldi? It’s trending to be a very bad year in the Bean. And when the hockey and basketball teams are really good and the Sox aren’t, they lose viewership and you know how much Henry cares about that. It would not surprise me at all to see Bloom add more minor league pieces, get fired at end of 23 and have the Sox hire a DD type to start spending prospect capital for good players. Personally, I think they should stick with Bloom until the new core comes up and see how he manages fitting pieces around them

 

You realize that the Skankees just gave 360 million to a guy who continually chokes in the playoffs? Cashman is no smarter than Bloom.

 

44 games, 171 ABs .211BA .310 OBP. 462 Slugging .772 OPS

 

Judge sucks in the playoffs. He hasn't EVER been on a World Series Champion!!! Talk about over paid!

[a700hitter]

C- McGuire/ Wong

1B- Cassas/ Hosmer

2B- Kike

SS - Story

3B - Devers

RF- Verdugo

CF- Duran

LF - Yoshida

DH- Dalbec

 

P- Sale

P- Paxton

P- Winkowski

P- Bello

P - Whitlock

 

BP- Jansen

BP - Martin

BP - Joely

BP - Houck

BP - Brasier

BP- Barnes

 

Is this where we are as of today?

[Old Red]

C- McGuire/ Wong

1B- Cassas/ Hosmer

2B- Kike

SS - Story

3B - Devers

RF- Verdugo

CF- Duran

LF - Yoshida

DH- Dalbec

 

P- Sale

P- Paxton

P- Winkowski

P- Bello

P - Whitlock

 

BP- Jansen

BP - Martin

BP - Joely

BP - Houck

BP - Brasier

BP- Barnes

 

Is this where we are as of today?

You left Pivetta out of the starting rotation, and definitely a BIG no on Stinkin Winkin.

[moonslav59]

I'd prefer Arroyo at 2B and Kike in CF over Kike at 2B and Duran in CF.

 

I think Hosmer & Dalbec platoon at DH, and since Hosmer gets the major splits, I'd list him or both.

 

Yes, Pivetta is the 5th SP'er, and I'd place Crawford over Winky.

 

I'd take 4-5 guys over Brasier as our 13 pitcher, but the guy has 99 lives.

[notin]

I'd prefer Arroyo at 2B and Kike in CF over Kike at 2B and Duran in CF.

 

I think Hosmer & Dalbec platoon at DH, and since Hosmer gets the major splits, I'd list him or both.

 

Yes, Pivetta is the 5th SP'er, and I'd place Crawford over Winky.

 

I'd take 4-5 guys over Brasier as our 13 pitcher, but the guy has 99 lives.

 

 

I think most of us could come up with unique lineups and rotations right now. But it’s also just December 11, still roughly 60 days before pitchers and catchers report…

[moonslav59]

I think most of us could come up with unique lineups and rotations right now. But it’s also just December 11, still roughly 60 days before pitchers and catchers report…

 

Agreed, but looking closely at what we have right now, helps to more clearly identify our greatest need areas. Due to Kike and Story's flexibility, we can acquire a SS, CF'er or 2Bman and hardly miss a beat at the other two positions.

 

SP remains my highest need choice with SS/2B/CF 2nd and RF 3rd.

 

[moonslav59]

I won’t be happy with the overall winter moves, if we add Kluber, Andria and Gallo/Conforro, but it could end up working out like ‘21 or better.

 

I won’t be betting on it, but some kids might carry us farther than we know.

[Hugh2]

For better or worse….the roster is clearly not set.

 

Sox are going to add a middle IF, another starter and MAYBE another outfielder.

[Hugh2]

It will be interesting to see the numbers when the dust settles, but it feels that the rate that the team pay per WAR has increased this year exponentially compared to other years. Player pay inflation is not new, but this jump at the moment appears unparalleled. Maybe that's a false perception on my point.

 

But two years ago Bogaerts and Story were arguable of equal value, and Bogaerts just got double his money two years later. He's getting paid to put up apx 45 WAR (if you factor in 2022 # + 10%) during the next 11 years. That would give him 78 Careers by the time her retires. That would currently make him the 70th-best baseball player to ever play the game. Placing him right in between Verlander and Joe Dimaggio.

 

I wonder if this trend is sustainable? or if the rug will be pulled out underneath someone. If the Sox jump in now would this be like buying towards the top of the TULIP BULB craze? I suppose we shouldn't expect much insight from the rabid fans (which I think I'm starting to gravitate to) in light of the front office and their inability to keep star talent. Locking guys up early holds more value now as free agent inflation rises. If there's truth to this, then it may be the wisest decision TO not buy, to wait it out, to try to build value on your roster. I understand that's probably the absolute last thing fans want to hear right now and an insanely unpopular opinion BUT teams like the Yankees and Mets are facing several years of the harshest penalties that will take away many of their picks and international bonus pool money. and thus....their ability to build up a farm system.

 

As unpopular as that might sound, they wouldn't be in this mess of needing to plug so many holes if they have done a better job of locking guys up early over the past 5-7 years. So the front office can't go without blame, and while I hope they reassess and change course, I also hope they don't get desperate and do something just to appease a fan base.

 

And with that......I still wouldn't hate a Carlos Correa signing.

[Bellhorn04]

Steve Cohen has obviously decided to thumb his nose at the luxury tax and all the penalties. And when you've got as much money as he does, maybe it's the right way to go. Yes the taxes and penalties are onerous, but maybe you can outspend all that.

 

The Sox meanwhile are trying to exercise restraint.

 

What we all know is that if the Sox miss the playoffs again or worse, finish last in the division again, their strategy is going to be thrown into even more question than it is right now.

[Hugh2]

I won’t be happy with the overall winter moves, if we add Kluber, Andria and Gallo/Conforro, but it could end up working out like ‘21 or better.

 

I won’t be betting on it, but some kids might carry us farther than we know.

 

Or 2013. Even better. That teams sported a lot of familiar names from 2012 that had either better or bounce-back seasons. They took that horrible 2012 team and added middling free agents on mid-short-term deals to that team (Koji/Drew/Napoli/Vic) those guys added 15 WAR to the team, but what also happened was the Sox added 17 Wins just from the guys already on their roster. Guys like Ellsbury, Lackey, Nava, Buch, Lester, Salty, Ortiz, Pedey, Doubront all had better seasons and combined for an increase of WAR of 17.

 

Is it unrealistic to expect better results from guys like Story, Devers, Sale, Kike, Verdugo, Barnes etc. Add in Rookie infusions from Bello, Casas and some key FA additions (a closer, a set up man, and an OF bat)???? I don't think so. I still think they need a SP, and a SS, and maybe another corner RHH OF. But I think the Red Sox are much better than people give them credit for. If healthy, they still have a lot of talent and I'm interested to see what the roster looks like in April.

 

Here's a fact. If the Sox have a winning record in June the seats will be packed and no one will be complaining. Well....most of us won't be.