A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Nick]

I started the “extend Bello and Casas” thread last September.

 

Of course I was thinking more like a 5 year $30mill or 6/$36 deal for Bello

 

DD's been on my mind.

[a700hitter]

Note to Bloom.

 

Now is the time to extend Bello. When the season starts, offer him a 8 year deal. $80M should do it. We'll have 9 controllable years. That's how you gamble. He could have Tommy John and we'd still have 7 years of him.

Or he could just stink, and we have a “Scott Kingery contract” with almost no major league contributions.

[notin]

It really seems like the Sox FO misread where prices were going. Which is a plain and simple failure and casts more doubt on their acumen as it currently stands.

 

 

Not that it’s an excuse or a defense, but so did we.

 

When the Phillies overpaid for Walker, you even called it a “Dombrowski Special”. Well, the other “Dombrowski Special” deal at shortstop really set the market for Boras to ask for on Bogaerts.

 

We knew Judge’s deal would be monstrous after a historic season. But other than him, this is actually a weak overall free agent class for this type of spending…

[notin]

Or he could just stink, and we have a “Scott Kingery contract” with almost no major league contributions.

 

I will say, before Wander Franco, Tampa was the master class at locking up younger players through their controllable years to deals that, even if the player stunk, still were not overpays or immovable contracts…

[Bellhorn04]

Not that it’s an excuse or a defense, but so did we.

 

When the Phillies overpaid for Walker, you even called it a “Dombrowski Special”. Well, the other “Dombrowski Special” deal at shortstop really set the market for Boras to ask for on Bogaerts.

 

We knew Judge’s deal would be monstrous after a historic season. But other than him, this is actually a weak overall free agent class for this type of spending…

 

I asked mvp about what years the really good free agent classes were, and he hasn't gotten back to me.

[notin]

Before the season? No. The offer before the season was tacking on 1 year and $30 mill.

 

He did have that offer this week. I certainly don’t blame him, but can we stop pretending he could not have accepted it if he wanted to?

[Bellhorn04]

He did have that offer this week. I certainly don’t blame him, but can we stop pretending he could not have accepted it if he wanted to?

 

It's an irrelevant question. The Sox offer was 57.9% of the Padres offer.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe Henry was scared Bogey might actually consider an offer that was within 50 million or so of the best offer, so he made sure to be ridiculously short. Plus it was good for some laughs all over the sports world.

[Bellhorn04]

yup.

 

OK, we have a bet, Hugh.

[notin]

It's an irrelevant question. The Sox offer was 57.9% of the Padres offer.

 

… but did that offer already exist?

 

It’s one thing to say “Ok here is the money you wanted, think about it” and then Boras and X go talk to other teams. It’s another to have this exchange:

 

“Ok, here is the money you originally wanted with a little extra. Take your time and get back to me.”

 

“This is far too little far too late. We have 4 better offers that go up to 11 years long and pay out $280mill. You need to do better and by a lot.”

 

“I did say take your time.”

[Old Red]

Before the season? No. The offer before the season was tacking on 1 year and $30 mill.

 

That offer looked dumb, and laughable then, and even looks worse now, and Notin thought the offer was worth getting a counter offer from the Bogey camp, which was laughable in itself.

[redsoxrules]

What f***ing idiot on this board wants to give Bogey $290M for 11 years? If you do, you have no credibility with me.

 

Fans keep talking about we should have made a reasonable offer earlier. What amount would that have been? More importantly would Xander accepted it?

 

It was always the smart move for Xander to test the free agency. Many here want a bargain. Why? This is how the free agency should work. Go find that billionaire that just can't say no.

 

You're missing the point. The Sox could have had Bogey alot cheaper but they dicked around with Bogey all year. They didn't need to give him what San Diego did to retain him. I don't understand why people don't get this FFS

[moonslav59]

It really seems like the Sox FO misread where prices were going. Which is a plain and simple failure and casts more doubt on their acumen as it currently stands.

 

No doubt. I think other GMs did, too, but they were prepared to overpay bigly.

 

In hindsight, I bet some teams wished they'd have offered more QOs or tried to lock up their QO players a year or two ago, even if just to trade them once the market shot up.

 

Nobody, here, liked the $30M for one more year initial offer to Bogey. That was very similar to Lester, and again, they did not seem to be willing to quickly follow up with another one. I truly believe they just did not want Bogey back at what everyone perceived the market prices were or would be. Even if he'd have taken $170M/6 a year or year and a half ago, I'm not sure they think he was worth that, then. Hell, they may not have really wanted to pay them that now that market prices have risen.

 

They signed Story last year. Many saw te writing on the wall, then.

 

They met with Bogey and then immediately signed Yoshida. They knew they never pay market price at every point through the market price changes.

 

Call them stupid for undervaluing Bogey, but IMO, they knew exactly what they were doing and were not "stupid" for not offering what it would take to sign him earlier. They don't think he's worth it. They did not think DLowe was. They did not think Pedro was. They did not think Beltre, Damon Betts and others were either.

 

They have their system for projecting value of their current players and they seem to stick with it. Some examples of getting sentimental and extending players that were nearing or past prime have not always worked out well:

 

Schilling

Lowell

Youk

Pearce

Nate did fine but not great ('19-'22)

 

I'm sure I'm missing others and some that worked out well, too.

[moonslav59]

You're missing the point. The Sox could have had Bogey alot cheaper but they dicked around with Bogey all year. They didn't need to give him what San Diego did to retain him. I don't understand why people don't get this FFS

 

We all get it.

 

Nick mentions signing him earlier.

 

Let's face the truth and realize the Sox never wanted Boget at current market prices, let alone more.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No doubt. I think other GMs did, too, but they were prepared to overpay bigly.

 

In hindsight, I bet some teams wished they'd have offered more QOs or tried to lock up their QO players a year or two ago, even if just to trade them once the market shot up.

 

Nobody, here, liked the $30M for one more year initial offer to Bogey. That was very similar to Lester, and again, they did not seem to be willing to quickly follow up with another one. I truly believe they just did not want Bogey back at what everyone perceived the market prices were or would be. Even if he'd have taken $170M/6 a year or year and a half ago, I'm not sure they think he was worth that, then. Hell, they may not have really wanted to pay them that now that market prices have risen.

 

They signed Story last year. Many saw te writing on the wall, then.

 

They met with Bogey and then immediately signed Yoshida. They knew they never pay market price at every point through the market price changes.

 

Call them stupid for undervaluing Bogey, but IMO, they knew exactly what they were doing and were not "stupid" for not offering what it would take to sign him earlier. They don't think he's worth it. They did not think DLowe was. They did not think Pedro was. They did not think Beltre, Damon Betts and others were either.

 

They have their system for projecting value of their current players and they seem to stick with it. Some examples of getting sentimental and extending players that were nearing or past prime have not always worked out well:

 

Schilling

Lowell

Youk

Pearce

Nate did fine but not great ('19-'22)

 

I'm sure I'm missing others and some that worked out well, too.

 

Letting Ellsbury go (to the Spanks) worked out, because they knew Jackie Bradley could actually throw, and already took better routes in college.

[moonslav59]

Letting Ellsbury go (to the Spanks) worked out, because they knew Jackie Bradley could actually throw, and already took better routes in college.

 

I knew I was forgetting a big one.

 

I remember hearing a lot of bitching, then, too... a year later, silence.

[notin]

We all get it.

 

Nick mentions signing him earlier.

 

Let's face the truth and realize the Sox never wanted Boget at current market prices, let alone more.

 

I think that’s part of it.

 

I’m ok with that as long as they do want Devers regardless of cost…

[Old Red]

You're missing the point. The Sox could have had Bogey alot cheaper but they dicked around with Bogey all year. They didn't need to give him what San Diego did to retain him. I don't understand why people don't get this FFS

 

Sam Kennedy now has come out from his Brain Cramp, and said maybe the Red Sox should have started negotiating with Bogey earlier in his career seeing as they knew he would opt out this year. Yes Sam you think?

[notin]

I asked mvp about what years the really good free agent classes were, and he hasn't gotten back to me.

 

Next year’s gets interesting, especially if Machado opts out

 

2024-25 is a monster class

 

Baseball's next free agent classes

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery were among the top stars who reached free agency after the 2023 World Series. But what about upcoming free-agent classes? Here's a look at the notable players who are set to become free agents in 2024-25 and beyond.

[moonslav59]

I think that’s part of it.

 

I’m ok with that as long as they do want Devers regardless of cost…

 

My position all along.

 

In some ways, one could view the Story signing as pre-filling of Bogey, even if he stays at 2B. It might not be an equal one, but he's cheaper and a b etter defender.

 

It's all about how we spend the money earmarked for Bogey.

[moonslav59]

Sam Kennedy now has come out from his Brain Cramp, and said maybe the Red Sox should have started negotiating with Bogey earlier in his career seeing as they knew he would opt out this year. Yes Sam you think?

 

I still don't think they ever viewed him as being worth the current market price, so I doubt they'd have ever signed him.

 

I know many think they are wrong about that valuation, but I think that is what should be criticized. We can talk what ifs till the cos come home, but if they didn't think he was worth $170M/5 a year ago, or $160M/6 with no opt out when we extended him, then the mistake was not about the timing: it was about how little they valued Bogey from day one.

[moonslav59]

Next year’s gets interesting, especially if Machado opts out

 

2024-25 is a monster class

 

Baseball's next free agent classes

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery were among the top stars who reached free agency after the 2023 World Series. But what about upcoming free-agent classes? Here's a look at the notable players who are set to become free agents in 2024-25 and beyond.

 

In this context, planning to "splurge" in 2024 or 2025 and building up the foundation to be timed to match that time period, maybe some recent moves make more sense.

 

BTW, extending Devers fits into the window planning very nicely, too. (A bogey extension, not so much.)

 

Notice Yoshida's age and the fact that his contract is all prime years or maybe one year out of 5 slightly past prime, depending on what ages you consider "prime" for a batter.

[moonslav59]

Okay, here is an attempt to be "realistic" and objective about our 2023 roster, position by position, as it compares to 2022. Granted, improving on a last place team should not be all that hard with $90M to spend. "Improving" may not guarantee getting out of last place or getting to 3rd place.

 

I'm going to use a point system based on what I feel a consensus or objective position would be:

5 The position should almost certainly be an improvement area and likely a major improvement over 2022. (Note: if we sucked in '22 and get to average, it's a 5.)

4 The position should likely improve and near certainly should be about the same, at worst.

3 The position looks to be close to the same

2. The position looks to be a declining area with little hope of being even.

1. The position looks almost certain to be a decline and likely a major one.

 

C: 2.5 Vaz was good with the bat in 2022. Plawecki was not. I almost gave this a 3.0 (We may add a catcher and get this to 3 or more)

1B: 4.5 I can't see how Casas (back-ups Hosmer/Dalbec) can do any worse than 2022 with Dalbec/Cordero.

2B: 4.0 Based on a reasonable assumption that Story plays more and that both him and Arroyo are not hurt at the same time as with 2022. (EValdez hopes)

3B: 3.0 I wanted to put 3.5 as Devers is reaching prime and had an August funk in '22.

SS: 1.0 As of now. Stay tuned. (Hard to know if it will be Kike, Story, Andrus or whatever)

LF: 4.5 I started to put 5.0, but there are doubts about how well MY's skills translate to MLB.

CF: 4.0 A healthy Kike is all we need to make this a 4.0. A 2021 Kike would make this a 4.5 or 5.0.

RF: 3.5 Addition by subtraction is all I have to say. (Dugo/Refsnyder platoon can maybe bring this to a 4 or 4.5?)

DH: 2.5 This could be a 3.0 or 2.0 as we see Dugo, Refsyder, Dalbec, Hosmer, Arroyo and maybe EValdez share time here in 2023.

 

That's 29.5 for the 9 everyday positions. Avg: 3.3.

 

This is not great, but I have to think we add something at SS and RF. At worst one significant one at either slot- likely with some offense. If we can change SS from a 1.0 to a 2.0 or 2.5 and or RF/DH up a point, we might add 2-3 points to the total and have 32/9 or a 3.6 average.

 

Is that enough on the non pitching ledger?

 

Now the pitching. It's hard to figure out how to compare, and this might not be the ideal way to do it, but here I go.

 

SP going by GS'd (ERA+ in 2022) >> projected 2023 GS and grade

33 (92) Pivetta >> Pivetta 33 (3.0)

26 (98) Hill + 5 (38) Seabold>> 33 Sale + Paxton (hard to grade, but 3.5???)

23 (127 Wacha) + 9 (122) Whitlock>> 32 Whitlock (3.0)

20 (109) Nate + 11 (90) Bello >> 32 Bello (2.5)

14 (72) Wink + 12 (77) Crawford + 4 (127) Houck 4 (134) >> 32 Crawford/Wink/Mata (Paxton?) for a 3.0

 

That brings the rotation to about a 3.0 before any additions. Maybe I'm being biased by assuming better health than we will get but I like Mata, Walter and think Crawford or Wink will do better- not both. We only need one.

 

The pen should be vastly better, despite moving Whitlock to the rotation. Maybe having Houck in the pen, FT and with a defined role can almost cancel out the loss of Whitlock from the pen. Addition by subtraction on losing Diekman, and if we DFA Brasier and less or no IP from some bad RP'ers we can gain a lot here.

 

2022 Relief IP and WHIP

65 Schreiber 0.985 >> 2.5 Schreiber- projecting regression

62 Brasier 1.300>>> 4.5 Jansen

51 Sawamura 1.421>>> 4.5 Martin

48 Davis 1.708>>> 3.5 Joely - pure guess

45 Strahm 1.231>>> 2.0 Kelly - hard to match Strahm's 2022

43 Houck 1.131>>> 4.0- more IP from pen

40 Danish 1.289>>> 3.5 Taylor

40 Barnes 1.437>>> 3.5 - more IP and a turn around

39 Whitlock 0.788>>> 1.5 more pen IP from Crawford and Wink

38 Diekman 1.487>>> 3.5 Mata/German

28 Ort 1.765 >>> 3.0 Ort

25 Robles 1.581 >>> 3.5 German/Walter/Murphy

(16 Bazrdo & Valdez, 14 Kelly, 10 Familia, 25 others)

 

Overall maybe a 3.5 or 4.0 average, assuming no additions and no major health issues

 

[Bellhorn04]

And what W-L record does that translate to?

[moonslav59]

And what W-L record does that translate to?

 

Without any addition at SS or RF, we'd have to play Story at SS and Arroyo/EValdez/Hamilton/Downs at middle IF. Kike in CF and Dugo/Refsnyder in RF. DH would be the off-handed RF'er with Hosmer/Dalbec (likely both will not be on the 26 at the same time.) This really brings the win total down from what the other slots gained.

 

I'd say with no additions, our offense is little worse and the defense a little better, Maybe a push? A lot depends on the return of Story and Kike FT and the emergence of Casas at 1B. If we add just Andrus and Conforto, we will see a plus 5-8 wins from everyday players. (Total guess)

 

No additions on the staff? The rotation might be lucky to break even, if Sale or Paxton are healthy and Bello shines. I really like Whitlock getting 25+ starts. The pen should add major wins over 2022. Maybe the pitching staff adds 3-6 wins with no additions. If we add Senga or Nate, bump that to 5-9 wins.

 

If we add a minimum of Nate, Conforto and Andrus, I'm guessing 12-15 more wins with normal injury issues. Maybe 9-12 is more reasonable.

 

Casas (Hosmer/Dalbec)>>> Dalec/Cordero/Hosmer

Healthy Story>>> Half a Story

Healthy Kike >>> A third Kike

Yoshida>>> JBJ

 

Maybe

McGuire/Wong = Vaz/Plawecki

Hosmer/Dalbec/Dugo/Ref/Arroyo= 2022 JD

 

They key comes to how close we can come to replacing Bogey and will Devers have a bigger year to maybe help make up for part losing Bogey.

 

Jansen, Martin & Joely plus a full year of Houck in the pen more than makes up for losing Whitlock to the rotation and we have a ton of addition by subtractions by losing all the IP'd by Sawamura, Davis, Diekman, Danish, Robles and hopefully replacing those by Brasier, Ort and others still in the system.

 

To all the people saying the pen cost us so many games, let's see how right you were.

[oldtimer]

My position all along.

 

In some ways, one could view the Story signing as pre-filling of Bogey, even if he stays at 2B. It might not be an equal one, but he's cheaper and a b etter defender.

 

It's all about how we spend the money earmarked for Bogey.

 

Senga would be a good start although I wonder about a 7 year deal that has been talked about. He is 29 now and has some wear and tear. Senga and a right handed power hitting outfielder would be even better. What we do about SS could impact any outfield options, particularly if we are lucky enough to get Senga.

[moonslav59]

Senga would be a good start although I wonder about a 7 year deal that has been talked about. He is 29 now and has some wear and tear. Senga and a right handed power hitting outfielder would be even better. What we do about SS could impact any outfield options, particularly if we are lucky enough to get Senga.

 

I'm thinking Andrus on a 2 year deal or maybe Segura for 1 year to play 2nd, and Story plays SS for one year before Mayer takes over.

 

That allows for more money for RF (Conforto or Gallo) and SP (Nate, Senga, Kluber, Wacha) and if we go light maybe bring Vaz back or trade for a RF/SP/SS/C.

[moonslav59]

Pretty sure we add 2-3 more pieces, minimum, but here is how our slots might line-up, right now:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Kike CF

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Story SS

5. L Casas 1B

6. L Verdugo/ R Refsnyder RF

7. L Hosmer/ R Dalbec DH (Verdugo could DH when Refsnyder is playing RF)

8. R Arroyo 2B (maybe at some point L Enmanuel Valdez)

9. L McGuire/ R Wong C

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Whitlock

SP3 Bello

SP4 Pivetta

SP5 Paxton

 

SP/LR Crawford

SP/LR Winckowski/Mata/Seabold/Walter/Murphy/Santos

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Schreiber

RP4 Barnes

RP5 Joely

RP6 Brasier/Taylor/Kelly/German/Mata/Walter/Murphy/Ort/DHern/Wallace/Fernandez

 

 

[Nick]

From 30,000 feet above Fenway.

 

Tampa qualified for the playoffs with 86 wins.

 

Based on number of blown saves we had last year and the additions we've had thus far in the pen, is it reasonable to expect a 10 game turn around?

 

That would give us 88 wins.

 

Despite all of my bitching, I am always optimistic about our Sox.

 

For me, Xander was GONE when the extension did not occur prior to opening day. All the analysis now just gives me headache.

 

I will feel the same way about Devers in 2023. We are in the best position to negotiate with Devers RIGHT NOW. Not next October.

 

PS. I have seen rumblings about how Bloom totally messed up about going over the luxury tax line in 2022. I will give him a benefit of doubt but that was an unforced error in my book.

Edited December 11, 2022 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

We won 78 last year.

 

We've lost Bogaerts, JDM, Vazquez, Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill.

 

That's a total of 13 fWAR gone.

 

I think if the season started today we're looking at about 70 wins. Assuming they don't trade Devers.

 

There has to be more coming.