A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

f*** the payroll. You don't see Cohen being concerned being way over the tax line. Henry is a billionaire. He can afford it

 

So can many other owners.

 

No way does it make sense to give Bogey $290M/11.

 

(I know we had better choices earlier, but this whole argument means nothing, if JH doesn't care about your point.)

[notin]

I truly believe the Story signing was in reaction to fan disgust and the projected loss of TV and attendance revenue. Maybe the current fan disgust, which seems as bad as I've seen in a long time will light a bigger fire under JH's ass,

 

The only thing I liked about the Story signing was it quelled any fears of the Sox being small market.

 

That may have passed. Watch them try to unload Story now…

[moonslav59]

It's time for Henry and Werner to go. Unfortunately, it might take a really miserable 2023 season to convince them to do it.

 

I'm a ways away from this position. I lived through so much crap with this team, that those 4 rings cancel out all of this crap with a lot of crap left to receive, before the balance shifts to wanting to dump JH & Co, for some unknown owner. 4 rings in 2 decades and a farm system now in place for long term success, and a budget that looks better than it has since the pre-Pablo/HRam signing days.

 

It's easy to get sucked into the malaise. I was for a day and a half or more. I'm still not happy, but the final product has yet to be presented, and guys like Bello, Casas, Mayer, Mata, Rafaela and others are here, now or about to be here in not too long.

 

Remember, Ebenezer Scrooge had a positive transformation and A Christmas Carol has a happy ending.

 

[notin]

When they hired Bloom, many feared they wanted to become the new Rays. To me, right now I hope we become the new Rays. My fear is we become the new Tigers…

[Bellhorn04]

The only thing I liked about the Story signing was it quelled any fears of the Sox being small market.

 

And frankly, that's a sad reason to like a signing.

[moonslav59]

The only thing I liked about the Story signing was it quelled any fears of the Sox being small market.

 

That may have passed. Watch them try to unload Story now…

 

It's really a defining moment for JH. If he unloads Devers, and Story or not, one has to think he's decided to sell the team or take it in a direction we are unfamiliar with. I'm not sure a Tampa Bay North philosophy that spend near the tax line every year is such a bad idea. No mega contracts. No mega long contracts, unless they are for rising young stars before they even reach arb.

 

I have faith in our farm- maybe more than I should, but I'm not giving up on the hope we can construct a long term winning strategy, in fact, I've not given up hope the results begin in 2023. I feel real good about 2024.

[Bellhorn04]

When they hired Bloom, many feared they wanted to become the new Rays. To me, right now I hope we become the new Rays. My fear is we become the new Tigers…

 

We're exactly like the Rays, except that we spend 3 times as much and they're 5 times smarter. Other than that it's a perfect likeness.

[Bellhorn04]

It's really a defining moment for JH. If he unloads Devers, and Story or not, one has to think he's decided to sell the team or take it in a direction we are unfamiliar with. I'm not sure a Tampa Bay North philosophy that spend near the tax line every year is such a bad idea. No mega contracts. No mega long contracts, unless they are for rising young stars before they even reach arb.

 

For me it feels like we've already seen the defining moments, with Betts and Bogey. How much more can you define yourself?

[Nick]

We're exactly like the Rays, except that we spend 3 times as much and they're 5 times smarter. Other than that it's a perfect likeness.

 

Very good.

Opening 2022 payroll.......$206M vs $83M......not sure why we are called Tampa North.

[Nick]

So can many other owners.

 

No way does it make sense to give Bogey $290M/11.

 

(I know we had better choices earlier, but this whole argument means nothing, if JH doesn't care about your point.)

 

What f***ing idiot on this board wants to give Bogey $290M for 11 years? If you do, you have no credibility with me.

 

Fans keep talking about we should have made a reasonable offer earlier. What amount would that have been? More importantly would Xander accepted it?

 

It was always the smart move for Xander to test the free agency. Many here want a bargain. Why? This is how the free agency should work. Go find that billionaire that just can't say no.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Nick

[Nick]

And for those critical of Yoshida's lack of power, San Diego just paid $290M over 11 years for a player that hit 15 HR. Hell I would have traded Xander straight up for Schwarber.

[Bellhorn04]

What f***ing idiot on this board wants to give Bogey $290M for 11 years? If you do, you have no credibility with me.

 

Fans keep talking about we should have made a reasonable offer earlier. What amount would that have been? More importantly would Xander accepted it?

 

That amount would have been what their final offer was - 6 * $27. The talk is that would have done it, that Xander wanted to get paid similarly to what Story got.

 

As with so many things, we'll never know now.

[Bellhorn04]

And for those critical of Yoshida's lack of power, San Diego just paid $290M over 11 years for a player that hit 15 HR. Hell I would have traded Xander straight up for Schwarber.

 

2022 fWAR Bogaerts 6.1 Schwarber 2.6

 

There's more to the game than HR's.

[notin]

That amount would have been what their final offer was - 6 * $27. The talk is that would have done it, that Xander wanted to get paid similarly to what Story got.

 

As with so many things, we'll never know now.

 

Xander had that offer, reportedly.

 

Boras clearly had other advice. That’s what he gets paid for…

[Nick]

Advice to Bloom.

 

Quit pussyfooting around when it comes to Devers. Make an offer he can't refuse or just trade him now.

 

Do NOT, and I repeat Do Not try to extend Devers for an amount that's minutely better than the next offer. (yeah, I know, we don't know what that is)

 

There's a rumor circulating that we overpaid Yoshida. Well, that's what we'll have to do to extend Devers.

 

If we are going to build a team around Casas, Mayers, Bello and Mata, then trade Devers for multiple prospects.

 

As of today, I'm not sure what the plan is. One thing about DD, we know exactly what he would have done with Xander. He would have paid $300M for 10 years. He likes round numbers. Big ones.

[Bellhorn04]

Xander had that offer, reportedly.

 

Before the season? No. The offer before the season was tacking on 1 year and $30 mill.

[Nick]

2022 fWAR Bogaerts 6.1 Schwarber 2.6

 

There's more to the game than HR's.

 

I have trouble comprehending fWAR.

 

What would Schwarber's fWAR be had he batted in Xander's place in the Sox lineup? Defensive metrics to me is much like the Gold Glove winners. Looks very subjective, almost made up numbers.

 

Can someone provide me with the fWAR numbers for American League teams? How does that compare to number of wins by each team.

[Bellhorn04]

Advice to Bloom.

 

Quit pussyfooting around when it comes to Devers. Make an offer he can't refuse or just trade him now.

 

You have to talk to Henry about it first.

[Bellhorn04]

I have trouble comprehending fWAR.

 

What would Schwarber's fWAR be had he batted in Xander's place in the Sox lineup. Defensive metrics to me is much like the Gold Glove winners. Looks very subjective, almost made up numbers.

 

Schwarber can't field at all, or run. He hit .218. He struck out 200 times. He's not without obvious deficiencies.

 

Would I like him as our DH in 2023? Hell yes. His power and his walks make him a big asset on O.

[Nick]

Schwarber can't field at all, or run. He hit .218. He struck out 200 times. He's not without obvious deficiencies.

 

Would I like him as our DH in 2023? Hell yes. His power and his walks make him a big asset on O.

 

I like to stir up the conversation here sometimes. Especially when Moon and Old Red aren't going at it.

[moonslav59]

What f***ing idiot on this board wants to give Bogey $290M for 11 years? If you do, you have no credibility with me.

 

Fans keep talking about we should have made a reasonable offer earlier. What amount would that have been? More importantly would Xander accepted it?

 

It was always the smart move for Xander to test the free agency. Many here want a bargain. Why? This is how the free agency should work. Go find that billionaire that just can't say no.

 

He'd probably have taken $180M/6, and right now, that looks pretty good, but back then, I thought $170M/6 was the max I'd pay. I know others were saying $200M/8 or even more, but at the market we thought it was a few months ago, I think that was too much.

[moonslav59]

Advice to Bloom.

 

Quit pussyfooting around when it comes to Devers. Make an offer he can't refuse or just trade him now.

 

Do NOT, and I repeat Do Not try to extend Devers for an amount that's minutely better than the next offer. (yeah, I know, we don't know what that is)

 

There's a rumor circulating that we overpaid Yoshida. Well, that's what we'll have to do to extend Devers.

 

If we are going to build a team around Casas, Mayers, Bello and Mata, then trade Devers for multiple prospects.

 

As of today, I'm not sure what the plan is. One thing about DD, we know exactly what he would have done with Xander. He would have paid $300M for 10 years. He likes round numbers. Big ones.

 

100%, Nick. I'd even consider $350M/14, if the league wouldn't nix it.

[moonslav59]

I have trouble comprehending fWAR.

 

What would Schwarber's fWAR be had he batted in Xander's place in the Sox lineup? Defensive metrics to me is much like the Gold Glove winners. Looks very subjective, almost made up numbers.

 

Can someone provide me with the fWAR numbers for American League teams? How does that compare to number of wins by each team.

 

War is not perfect, for sure, and I too, find it hard to understand how a SS who plays average D gains that much value. I know, I know, Bogey played plus D thanks to the shift, but there is some value in playing average D vs no D as the DH or minus D when Schwarbs does take the field.

[Nick]

Note to Bloom.

 

Now is the time to extend Bello. When the season starts, offer him a 8 year deal. $80M should do it. We'll have 9 controllable years. That's how you gamble. He could have Tommy John and we'd still have 7 years of him.

[moonslav59]

I like to stir up the conversation here sometimes. Especially when Moon and Old Red aren't going at it.

 

Troll!

 

[Bellhorn04]

I like to stir up the conversation here sometimes. Especially when Moon and Old Red aren't going at it.

 

Your contributions are always welcome.

[moonslav59]

Note to Bloom.

 

Now is the time to extend Bello. When the season starts, offer him a 8 year deal. $80M should do it. We'll have 9 controllable years. That's how you gamble. He could have Tommy John and we'd still have 7 years of him.

 

If Whitlock took $19M/4 after having a very nice season in the bigs, I think Bello (and Casas) might settle for that.

 

BTW, an 8 year deal adds about 3 years of control. Maybe we should push for 9 and 10 year deals that bring them to the exact end of prime.

[notin]

Note to Bloom.

 

Now is the time to extend Bello. When the season starts, offer him a 8 year deal. $80M should do it. We'll have 9 controllable years. That's how you gamble. He could have Tommy John and we'd still have 7 years of him.

 

I started the “extend Bello and Casas” thread last September.

 

Of course I was thinking more like a 5 year $30mill or 6/$36 deal for Bello

[Bellhorn04]

He'd probably have taken $180M/6, and right now, that looks pretty good, but back then, I thought $170M/6 was the max I'd pay. I know others were saying $200M/8 or even more, but at the market we thought it was a few months ago, I think that was too much.

 

It really seems like the Sox FO misread where prices were going. Which is a plain and simple failure and casts more doubt on their acumen as it currently stands.

[a700hitter]

It really seems like the Sox FO misread where prices were going. Which is a plain and simple failure and casts more doubt on their acumen as it currently stands.

That about sums it up.