A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

I'm well aware OPS is better. I seem to remember you extolling the virtues of OBP recently.

 

I don’t recall that. Other than citing the Sox really needing a good OBP atop the lineup. I do stand by that and hope Yoshida fits the bill…

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s advantageous to Devers to sign for big money now. No real 3b’s are on the market now that Arenado re-upped. While he won’t have the luxury of weighing offers against other teams, he can almost direct where he’s traded to by dictating terms of his next contract. Next year, he won’t even be the best 3b on the market as Machado is expected to opt out. This may take one suitor (probably NY) out of the picture and NY drives prices behind them.

 

I think Raffy plays this with a trade demand, the Sox are handcuffed by where Raffy wants to go and what he wants to make but still get a nice haul of prospects.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He’s meh.

 

OPS is a much, much better yardstick than OBP, which is a much better yardstick than the borderline useless BA…

 

OBP vs. BA depends on what you value more -- moving a runner or being a runner.

 

If it's the former, a walk's not always as good as a hit (I'm ignoring guys who get hit by pitches a lot; they're not good longevity risks... or Ellsbury, who as he aged became better at hitting the catcher's mitt than the baseball).

[moonslav59]

OBP vs. BA depends on what you value more -- moving a runner or being a runner.

 

If it's the former, a walk's not always as good as a hit (I'm ignoring guys who get hit by pitches a lot; they're not good longevity risks... or Ellsbury, who as he aged became better at hitting the catcher's mitt than the baseball).

 

Hits are usually better than walks, but OBP includes hits, too.

 

I'd rather have...

 

BA/OBP

 

.280/.350 than .290/.333

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hits are usually better than walks, but OBP includes hits, too.

 

I'd rather have...

 

BA/OBP

 

.280/.350 than .290/.333

 

I'd rather have Yoshida than a dead mob boss in the outfield. Yoshi has struck out over 700 times less in more career pro games than Crazy Joe.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather have Yoshida than a dead mob boss in the outfield. Yoshi has struck out over 700 times less in more career pro games than Crazy Joe.

 

We have no way of knowing if his skillset will transfer well to MLB, but it's adan good approach that this team was seriously lacking, last year. maybe it can rub off on some of the free-swinging players who helped sink the team, this year. maybe not. I respect the effort to improve in this area, despite the obvious risks.

 

I also like the idea of stocking up on lefties. Several recent rule changes have aided their production projections.

 

No more loogies.

 

No more shifts.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hits are usually better than walks, but OBP includes hits, too.

 

Ideally, I'd prefer a guy like Yoshi who has about twice as many hits as walks.

 

How spoiled were Red Sox fans when they could count on Wade Boggs for around 100 BBs and 200 hits every year.

 

Really not interested in Gallo, who had the exact same amount of walks and hits last year, and whose batting average was lower than his strikeout total.

[mvp 78]

Hits are usually better than walks, but OBP includes hits, too.

 

Ideally, I'd prefer a guy like Yoshi who has about twice as many hits as walks.

 

How spoiled were Red Sox fans when they could count on Wade Boggs for around 100 BBs and 200 hits every year.

 

Really not interested in Gallo, who had the exact same amount of walks and hits last year, and whose batting average was lower than his strikeout total.

 

I also question how well his bat will play at Fenway.

 

Career: 66 OPS+ at Fenway

[moonslav59]

Would anyone support either of these BTV approved trades?

 

McGuire & Verdugo for 2 years of D'Arnaud

 

or

 

Houck, Wong & Seabold for D'Arnaud & Dylan Lee (LHRP)

 

or

 

Verdugo for Suzuki & Thompson + $16M ($4M x 4 years left on is deal.)

Edited December 16, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

MLB.com has this for our depth chart

 

SP: Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Bello

RP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Barnes, Rodrigiez, Brasier, Taylor, Kelly/German/DHern

C: McGuire, Wong

1B: Casas, Hosmer, Arroyo, Dalbec

2B: Arroyo, Story, Kike

SS: Story, Arroyo, Kike

3B: Devers, Arroyo, Casas, Dalbec

LF: Yoshida, Verdugo, Refsnyder

CF: Kike, Refsnyder

RF: Verdugo, Arroyo, Yoshida, Refsnyder

 

 

[a700hitter]

MLB.com has this for our depth chart

 

SP: Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Bello

RP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Barnes, Rodrigiez, Brasier, Taylor, Kelly/German/DHern

C: McGuire, Wong

1B: Casas, Hosmer, Arroyo, Dalbec

2B: Arroyo, Story, Kike

SS: Story, Arroyo, Kike

3B: Devers, Arroyo, Casas, Dalbec

LF: Yoshida, Verdugo, Refsnyder

CF: Kike, Refsnyder

RF: Verdugo, Arroyo, Yoshida, Refsnyder

 

 

The mods really need to get a vomit emoji for this site for situations like this.

[Hugh2]

MLB.com has this for our depth chart

 

SP: Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Bello

RP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Barnes, Rodrigiez, Brasier, Taylor, Kelly/German/DHern

C: McGuire, Wong

1B: Casas, Hosmer, Arroyo, Dalbec

2B: Arroyo, Story, Kike

SS: Story, Arroyo, Kike

3B: Devers, Arroyo, Casas, Dalbec

LF: Yoshida, Verdugo, Refsnyder

CF: Kike, Refsnyder

RF: Verdugo, Arroyo, Yoshida, Refsnyder

 

 

 

They could still really use a SP/IF/RF. Starting to wonder if we even get two of those.

[moonslav59]

They could still really use a SP/IF/RF. Starting to wonder if we even get two of those.

 

Knowing Bloom & Co., he'll probably sign someone like Drury to fill the IF and OF slots with one contract.

 

Kluber and Drury and go into the season $20M under the tax line. YUCK!

 

[Bellhorn04]

I would love to know what John Henry is thinking right now. He decided to exercise fiscal restraint at the same time that Cohen and Steinbrenner and the Phillies and the Padres and the Rangers decided to go on spending sprees like the end of the world is nigh.

[Larry Cook]

MLB.com has this for our depth chart

 

SP: Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Bello

RP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Barnes, Rodrigiez, Brasier, Taylor, Kelly/German/DHern

C: McGuire, Wong

1B: Casas, Hosmer, Arroyo, Dalbec

2B: Arroyo, Story, Kike

SS: Story, Arroyo, Kike

3B: Devers, Arroyo, Casas, Dalbec

LF: Yoshida, Verdugo, Refsnyder

CF: Kike, Refsnyder

RF: Verdugo, Arroyo, Yoshida, Refsnyder

 

 

 

I see three glaring holes in this lineup:

 

1.) we need a starter to push houck to the bullpen.

2.) we need a shortstop

3.) we need a power outfielder

 

Ps: we should but sleep on mata. Pre injury his stuff was better than bello’s and this is year 2 post surgery. He could be up in Boston after June.

[moonslav59]

I would love to know what John Henry is thinking right now. He decided to exercise fiscal restraint at the same time that Cohen and Steinbrenner and the Phillies and the Padres and the Rangers decided to go on spending sprees like the end of the world is nigh.

 

He'd have had to spend like a maniac to get top quality, this winter. We weren't just Bogey away from improving by enough to compete at a high level.

[Tedballgame]

Jeter Downs won't be part of 2023 Red Sox. DFA'd today. Mookie trade looking better every day.

[moonslav59]

Jeter Downs won't be part of 2023 Red Sox. DFA'd today. Mookie trade looking better every day.

 

I heard Bloom is working on a Downs for Graterol deal.

[moonslav59]

One line that always brings a laugh to me, is when a poster says, "___(insert manager's name)___ needs to sit ___(so and so)____ down and tell him he needs to get on base, more often," like it is really as simple as that: a manager needing to just tell a player what he needs to do and presto magnifico!

 

You know what I feel like, now? I feel like someone needs to sit Henry down and tell him he needs to open his wallet and demand his GM acquire some actual good players.

 

Tom Petty sang how "The Waiting is the Hardest Part," well, right now, the futility of it all is the hardest part, to me.

[a700hitter]

I heard Bloom is working on a Downs for Graterol deal.

Graterol or Gatorade?

[Hugh2]

I heard Bloom is working on a Downs for Graterol deal.

 

Sox didn’t like him because they thought he was strictly a reliever. Would love to have that one back.

[notin]

Sox didn’t like him because they thought he was strictly a reliever. Would love to have that one back.

 

I wanted that one THEN…

[moonslav59]

Sox didn’t like him because they thought he was strictly a reliever. Would love to have that one back.

 

I actually wanted Maeda, but I'll take pitching over everyday, if close to even in value.

[mvp 78]

They could still really use a SP/IF/RF. Starting to wonder if we even get two of those.

 

Those are the moves we're waiting on... Tick Tock...

[Bobe2]

One line that always brings a laugh to me, is when a poster says, "___(insert manager's name)___ needs to sit ___(so and so)____ down and tell him he needs to get on base, more often," like it is really as simple as that: a manager needing to just tell a player what he needs to do and presto magnifico!

 

You know what I feel like, now? I feel like someone needs to sit Henry down and tell him he needs to open his wallet and demand his GM acquire some actual good players.

 

Tom Petty sang how "The Waiting is the Hardest Part," well, right now, the futility of it all is the hardest part, to me.[/https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/12/15/sports/town-red-sox-signing-agent-scott-boras-happy-talk-about-how-xander-bogaerts-got-away/?camp=bg:brief:rss:MSN&rss_id=MSN_rss_brief

Edited December 16, 2022 by Bobe2

[Bobe2]

One line that always brings a laugh to me, is when a poster says, "___(insert manager's name)___ needs to sit ___(so and so)____ down and tell him he needs to get on base, more often," like it is really as simple as that: a manager needing to just tell a player what he needs to do and presto magnifico!

 

You know what I feel like, now? I feel like someone needs to sit Henry down and tell him he needs to open his wallet and demand his GM acquire some actual good players.

 

Tom Petty sang how "The Waiting is the Hardest Part," well, right now, the futility of it all is the hardest part, to me.[/https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/12/15/sports/town-red-sox-signing-agent-scott-boras-happy-talk-about-how-xander-bogaerts-got-away/?camp=bg:brief:rss:MSN&rss_id=MSN_rss_brief Boris on xander

. I’ll try to get it up as a link

[moonslav59]

I realize the market surge for the best players made the $80M many of us thought might buy us 3-4 big players turned into hopes for maybe 2-3, and then the reality of just Yoshida. Look, I get it. I'm pissed, too. We still have $40M on the table, and the table is full of just scraps, now, except for maybe Kluber.

 

This was the plan they felt "made us better?"

 

There are no explanations, except that it's been one long sham since the first time they said we were going to try and "be competitive." That was, what, 2 years ago?

 

I'm not defending Bloom & Co., here, but this is coming from the top. The top would not allow any splurges, this winter, and that makes it impossible for me to think they could never have truly believed we'd be better, as they promised Kike they would be.

 

On the flip side, and I know we are all pissed, and maybe some want to wallow in the mire for much longer than I do, I am going to try and be optimistic about the extended future and also enjoy watching the kids come up, this year. This is not taking Sox brass off the hook, and maybe it is just how I cope with frustration and anger. (I hate letting if fester, but they are making it so hard to move on.)

 

I'm curious about how well McGuire and Wong will do, and if catcher defense and staff handling matters as much as I think it does.

 

I'm dying to see if Casas is the real thing and actually not see buffoon defense at 1B, this year.

 

I'm hoping Story makes his $140M/6 deal look like the deal of the decade.

 

I'm excited to see what Devers will do, now that he has reached peak prime.

 

I'm dreaming that Arroyo can play a full season. I think E valdez may surprise many of us.

 

The Yoshida addition is a big question mark, but his approach has me feeling positive anticipations.

 

I'm a big Kike fan, and hope he can bounce back from a bad year and stay healthy for 2023.

 

I don't like Dugo in RF, but I like the look of an .800+ platoon of Dugo & Ref. Maybe that outweighs the drop in RF D. We'll see,

 

I'm loving the pen more than even the 2018 one, when Kimbrel was a pins and needles closer, especially at the end of '18.

 

I'm very hopeful about Bello, Mata, Kelly and German. I'm thinking 1-2 might shine from Walter, Crawford, Murphy, Winckowski or Seabold. That's 9 young pitchers with varying levels of promise and skillsets.

 

I'm done "hoping" for Sale to start 25+ games, but he might? If he doesn't, maybe he and Paxton can combine for 25+ or even 33.

 

I like Pivetta as our #5, but he has to stay at #5, or it won't be that pretty,

 

I'd like to see Houck given one role and keep him there. I have my preference, but even if they choose the other option, just stick with it! I'm expecting good things from him.

 

Maybe Barnes and or Taylor shine, again.

 

There is a lot, here to look forward to watching, if you choose to want to be optimistic about.

 

This isn't the same as saying be optimistic about winning even 90 games, but there could be a lot of fun things to watch. (No, I'm not going for the Sox PR job, but I'm not going to be miserable all winter long, either.)

[moonslav59]

Would anyone support either of these BTV approved trades?

 

McGuire & Verdugo for 2 years of D'Arnaud

 

or

 

Houck, Wong & Seabold for D'Arnaud & Dylan Lee (LHRP)

 

or

 

Verdugo for Suzuki & Thompson + $16M ($4M x 4 years left on is deal.)

 

BTV accepted...

 

Houck & Verdugo

 

for

 

Lopez, A Garcia & Berti.

 

Berti could play 2B or RF and lead off, with Yoshida batting second (or flip them). This lengthens the line-up and fills the RF and 2B needs with freeing up the logjam in LF/DH.

 

Lopez may not be a number 1, but he's better than almost all our starters, looking at 2023 projections.

 

Sign Kluber and or Fulmer, and I'd be happy with the winter.

 

We keep all our top prospects and downgrade at only SS with maybe minor downgrades at C and a slot or two in the rotation. Every other slot looks like a plus or equal.

 

Extend Devers and presto magnifico!

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-sox-shouldnt-be-living-this-indiana-pacers-life/

 

If the Red Sox are pursuing the absolute top-tier free agents, they haven’t been doing so successfully. And they haven’t exhibited the cleverness or guile necessary to build a consistent Yankee-beater on a budget. They’ll go .500 or better pretty routinely, and every couple years make the playoffs, which, unlike in the NBA, is in and of itself a real shot at winning a title. But expectations are, and should be, higher than that. Thursday’s dueling headlines are yet another reminder that they’re not being met.

[mvp 78]

@MacCerullo

The #RedSox announce they've traded Hoy Park to the Atlanta Braves for a player to be named later. Park was DFA'd earlier this week to make room on the 40-man for Kenley Jansen.

 

The Free Wheelin' Chaim Bloom