A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

Quick, name the last off season day as exciting as this for the Sox...

 

When we got Smoltz and Rocco Baldelli!!!

[moonslav59]

When we got Smoltz and Rocco Baldelli!!!

 

Was that the same day?

 

I was thinking maybe JD or Price signing day.

 

Maybe the Sale trade day?

 

Weren't Pablito and HRam signed on the same day?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Righty bats in Fenway 2023: infield Arroyo, Story; utility Kike.

 

Can somebody please call Rico Petrocelli? Tom Brunansky? Jason Bay? Nick I forgot his last name Vertigo?

 

Don't tweet Manny until after the Bruins play there or he'll slip on the ice and pull a hammy...

[mvp 78]

Righty bats in Fenway 2023: infield Arroyo, Story; utility Kike.

 

Can somebody please call Rico Petrocelli? Tom Brunansky? Jason Bay? Nick I forgot his last name Vertigo?

 

Don't tweet Manny until after the Bruins play there or he'll slip on the ice and pull a hammy...

 

Esasky.

[moonslav59]

Righty bats in Fenway 2023: infield Arroyo, Story; utility Kike.

 

Can somebody please call Rico Petrocelli? Tom Brunansky? Jason Bay? Nick I forgot his last name Vertigo?

 

Don't tweet Manny until after the Bruins play there or he'll slip on the ice and pull a hammy...

 

Even our catcher bats lefty!

 

Dugo will be traded.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Even our catcher bats lefty!

 

Dugo will be traded.

 

But not fer Gallo, ffs; he's lefty, too! And ferget Conforto, Brantley, Lefty Grove and Lefty Luciano (Lucky's unlucky brother).

[mvp 78]

Even our catcher bats lefty!

 

Dugo will be traded.

 

Even Valdez and Abreu bat lefty. What the hell....

[mvp 78]

David Hamilton... LHB

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

David Hamilton... LHB

 

Mayer... Niko!!!!!!

 

Seriously, Nick Yorke may get promoted next summer.

[mvp 78]

Are they loading up on lefties because

1. first base is even closer now

2. without the shift, lefties may find increased value especially since LOOGY is now outlawed

[moonslav59]

But not fer Gallo, ffs; he's lefty, too! And ferget Conforto, Brantley, Lefty Grove and Lefty Luciano (Lucky's unlucky brother).

 

Trade for Lopez, Berti and maybe even A Garcia or Cooper.

[mvp 78]

Mayer... Niko!!!!!!

 

Seriously, Nick Yorke may get promoted next summer.

 

I don't think he has a chance to pop up in BOS this year.

[moonslav59]

Are they loading up on lefties because

1. first base is even closer now

2. without the shift, lefties may find increased value especially since LOOGY is now outlawed

 

2023: The Year of the Lefty

[moonslav59]

Even Valdez and Abreu bat lefty. What the hell....

 

The one name mentioned as being offered in trade? You guessed it- RH'd Bobby D.

[moonslav59]

Righty bats in Fenway 2023: infield Arroyo, Story; utility Kike.

 

Can somebody please call Rico Petrocelli? Tom Brunansky? Jason Bay? Nick I forgot his last name Vertigo?

 

Don't tweet Manny until after the Bruins play there or he'll slip on the ice and pull a hammy...

 

You forgot Bobby Dee!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think he has a chance to pop up in BOS this year.

 

Maybe not, but all righty prospects could use some BP aiming at the short porch in right in Worcester to get ready for Yankme Stadium.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You forgot Bobby Dee!

 

I was talking about projected regulars. Won't see him no more.

 

I shouldn't say that -- watch Bloom converts him into a bullpen option or opener.

[moonslav59]

I was talking about projected regulars. Won't see him no more.

 

I shouldn't say that -- watch Bloom converts him into a bullpen option or opener.

 

Never count out Bobby Dee.

 

He's likely our platoon DH and back up to a rookie 1Bman.

 

If he could play SS or RF, he'd be a FT'er.

[Bellhorn04]

Never count out Bobby Dee.

 

He's likely our platoon DH and back up to a rookie 1Bman.

 

If he could play SS or RF, he'd be a FT'er.

 

There was a report they were shopping him and the Rays were interested, but that was about a week ago.

[moonslav59]

There was a report they were shopping him and the Rays were interested, but that was about a week ago.

 

See post #4334.

[moonslav59]

It will be interesting to see how this winter winds down. Is JH hearing the rumblings enough to realize something needs to change?

 

If we still stick to the idea that the budget restes, what are our chances?

 

What are our options?

 

We could decide to make a push for higher competitiveness in 2023 by trading away a top prospect or two, but that compromises the idea of building a sustainable system for years to come.

 

We could try and hit gold with the $40M or so we have left, but we need some major additions. We can all argue over how many or which areas need the most help, but here is my take:

 

1) We need a solid SP; an ace would be best, but a strong #2 might due. Are we willing to trade for one? Is Nate or Kluber good enough? Is Senga out of our price range due to other high needs?

 

2) We need a solid RH'd bat for the line-up. We have some positional flexibility, if we are willing to move Story or Kike to SS and/or Dugo to RF. That makes 4 positions, 5 if you count DH, where we can fill the offensive needs while filling a positional need, at the same time.

SS

RF

2B

CF

 

3) If we fill #1 and #2, we can probably get by with covering DH with a mix of bench players, but we still need to fill one more slot, even if mostly with a defensive player. (SS or RF makes the most sense, defensively, as Kike in CF and Story at 2B are big pluses on defense.)

 

3 big needs. $40M to spend. Trade possibilities, if we are willing to pull the trigger. I know I've beaten a dead horse on the idea of taking on Avisail Garcia's contract, so we can get Pablo Lopez for less than it would normally take to get him. Together, they will make about $19M AAV. That is only half of our remaining budget and we fill 2 positional slots (SP and RF/DH.) I would not say Garcia fills the big RH'd batter need I listed, but he may bounce back to help the O. The other $20M would need to be spent on a hitting SS at $20M per (not Swanson) or to go with Andrus and try to find a RH'd DH that combined make $20-22M. Is that doable?

 

There are a few combinations of trades with the Marlins, I think might be enough to fill all our needs and keep us under the tax line:

 

Pablo Lopez ~$5.3M (2nd of 3 arbs) 119 ERA+ from 2020-2023 and 3.48 FIP

 

Jon Berti ~2.5M (2nd of 4 arbs) RHB best at 2B & SS but can play OF, too. Has speed and a .335 OBP

 

Avisail Garcia $13.25M x 3 (RHB RF/DH) He's a salary dump. He's a negative defender. He sucked on O, last year (65 OPS+), but a 96-99 OPS+ from the last 2-4 years, combined

 

one from...

 

Garrett Cooper $3M in last arb (RHB- 1B/DH) Maybe a change of scenery will help him. 113 OPS+, last year and 120 from 2020-2022.

 

Jorge Soler $12M x 2 (RHB LF/DH) A salary dump, for sure, but a 99 OPS+ since 2020 is not beyond hope.

 

BTV Values

-26.0 Garcia

-20.9 Soler

+5.0 Cooper

+7.5 Berti (I'd give more than this value)

+38.7 Lopez

 

So, let's say...

 

Lopez, Berti, Garcia and Cooper (Total BTV: 25.2)

BTV accepted: Rafaela (15.1), Verdugo (6.7), Walter (5.6), Wikelman (1.4), Downs (1.1) and Dalbec (0.8)

 

or

 

Lopez, Berti and Soler (Total BTV: about 0)

 

Give 'em Duran, Downs, Dalbec and Verdugo.

 

This doesn't solve every problem, but we'd still have money to spend and all our top 4 prospects and young players (Bello, Casas, Mayer, Bleis)

[moonslav59]

With Martin officially added to the 40, we still have Yoshida and Jansen to add.

 

The usual suspects for DFA come to mind, but I have to think Bloom must be looki ng at some sort of 2 or 3 for 1 trade, or we trade someone like Brasier, DHern, Dalbec and/or Downs for a non 40 man prospect.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With Martin officially added to the 40, we still have Yoshida and Jansen to add.

 

The usual suspects for DFA come to mind, but I have to think Bloom must be looki ng at some sort of 2 or 3 for 1 trade, or we trade someone like Brasier, DHern, Dalbec and/or Downs for a non 40 man prospect.

 

Trade Braiser to Washington for Thad Ward.

[moonslav59]

Trade Braiser to Washington for Thad Ward.

 

Nice!

 

Or, Ort, DHern, or maybe Downs, Duran, Dalbec...

[moonslav59]

Could Houck be a trade candidate, or does his health have to be roven, before any trade is made?

 

Maybe package Houck with any of the 3-Ds: Downs, Duran and Dalbec.

 

If we can get a better pitcher by adding players or prospects and making room on the 40 for Yoshida and Jansen, maybe it can happen, soon.

[Hugh2]

Trade Braiser to Washington for Thad Ward.

 

I love it

[Hugh2]

Could Houck be a trade candidate, or does his health have to be roven, before any trade is made?

 

Maybe package Houck with any of the 3-Ds: Downs, Duran and Dalbec.

 

If we can get a better pitcher by adding players or prospects and making room on the 40 for Yoshida and Jansen, maybe it can happen, soon.

 

I'm keeping Houk, we've seen what Bloom ad to spend to try and get this pen right, and he could have spent a lot more if he wanted to go after the premium closers. Houck may be a closer or set up man in waiting, and he's young and cost controlled. I'm keeping him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Story shifts to SS -- presumed since the Sox explored trading for Kolten Wong -- then I'm in on Jean Segura for second base: career .285 BA, .739 OPS, 13.9% K-rate... 32 years old, but never a negative dWAR... righty stick, 13 HRs per 162.

 

Segura is younger than Elvis, and lets Kike stay in CF.

[moonslav59]

I'm keeping Houk, we've seen what Bloom ad to spend to try and get this pen right, and he could have spent a lot more if he wanted to go after the premium closers. Houck may be a closer or set up man in waiting, and he's young and cost controlled. I'm keeping him.

 

Because he's young and cost controlled, he has more value.

 

I'm not handing him away. I'm suggesting we add more value and get someone much better with less control or slightly better with the same control due to the value added by other players included in the trade.

 

Another possibility is to get a better pitcher who has a higher salary, which we can absorb.

 

I like Houck, a lot. Suggesting a trade does not always mean I value him less than others do- not that you said that.

[moonslav59]

If Story shifts to SS -- presumed since the Sox explored trading for Kolten Wong -- then I'm in on Jean Segura for second base: career .285 BA, .739 OPS, 13.9% K-rate... 32 years old, but never a negative dWAR... righty stick, 13 HRs per 162.

 

Segura is younger than Elvis, and lets Kike stay in CF.

 

That could be a real option. Segura might take a 1-2 year deal, as well.

 

Adam Frazier is 30 and has never had a negative bWAR.