A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

That 50 on Valdez just seems high to me. He'll be 28 next year and he's still not a sure thing.

 

A big part of it might be the 4 years of control remaining...

[mvp 78]

A big part of it might be the 4 years of control remaining...

 

I guess? He'll be 28 with about 300 innings in his career at 4 fWAR. Houk had a higher fWAR this year than Valdez and he's younger with MORE years of control and a smaller BTV value.

[mvp 78]

YEs, Pedro is needed to take back some casah. He's a salary dump for Houston here.

 

I'm not so high on Framber, either, given that he has only topped 71 IP in the majors one time.

 

But when you're trading one year of a $20mill shortstop, it is possible that expectations need to be tempered a bit...

 

Sounds better if you do this:

 

NYM get:

Bogaerts/Seabold

 

BOS get:

Alonso/McNeill/Megill

[moonslav59]

That 50 on Valdez just seems high to me. He'll be 28 next year and he's still not a sure thing.

 

It's the 4 years of control that brings his value up.

 

I've always liked Josh James (3 yrs- value 2.7), and I seriously doubt they'd part with a young pitcher plus Pressly (1 year - value 13.8).

 

I doubt HOU gives up pitching for one year of Bogey, and they already have Alvarez & Gurriel at 1B. If they like Downs, he could be added, but maybe Duran is the guy they'd want with Bogey.

 

32.4 Bogey

23.1 Duran

Vazquez value: ( 1 yr- 0.0)

 

Choose a mix n match:

54.8 Garcia (5 yrs)

50.3 Valdez (4 yrs)

20.4 Urquidy (4 yrs)

13.8 Pressly (1 yr)

11.2 McCullers (5)

7.5 C Javier (4)

5.6 Maton (2)

2.7 James (3)

 

Catching prospect: Lee at 22.5

 

Here's one they just accepted:

 

Bogey & Duran

for

Urquidy (4)

Javier (4)

James (3)

Lee (5- catching prospect)

[mvp 78]

It's the 4 years of control that brings his value up.

I get that. I still think a 50 is too high for 4 years.

[moonslav59]

I get that. I still think a 50 is too high for 4 years.

 

I hear you. The guy never had more than 71 IP in MLB, before this year, and his minor league numbers are meh.

 

They are basically saying he's worth about Eovaldi (13.9/1)x 4 years or 4 X the value of Taylor (11.5/4)

[moonslav59]

MLBTR Previews the Starting Pitcher FA Class of 2022:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/mlb-free-agent-preview-starting-pitchers.html

 

Paraphrasing...

 

Tier 1

Scherzer 37 (Should eclipse Verlanders $66M/2 in money & Years)

 

Tier 2

R Ray 30 (9 figure contract of 5-6 years)

Gausman 31 (Similar to Ray's contract)

Stroman 30 (Should command a 5 year deal, despite low Ks)

Rodon 29 (Gets a QO, so draft pick lost, if we sign him)

 

Tier 3

Geinke 38 (SHOULD EAT INNINGS)

Verlander 39 (Gets a QO and is reportedly seeking multi years)

Kluber 36 (just 80 IP in 2021)

Kershaw 34 (QO? Has forearm discomfort... ughhh!)

 

Tier 4

DeSclafini 32 (QO)

Jon Gray 30 (QO)

S Matz 31

ERod 29

Alex Wood 30

 

Tier 4 Older

B Anderson 34

T Anderson 32

A Cobb 34

JA Happ 39

R Hill 42

K-H Kim 33

LeBlanc 37

Lester 38

Lyles 31

Peralta 33

Pineda 33

Smyly 33

Wacha 30

 

Depth

C Anderson 34, C Archer 33, Arrieta 36. Bundy 29, Cahill 33, Z Davies 29, DDuffy 33

Fiers 37, Foltynewicz 30, ChiChi Gonzalez 30, Harvey 33, Heaney 31, Loerenzen 30

MMoore 33, Paxton 33, Aa Sanchez 29, Syndergaard 30. Urena 30, VVelasquez 30

 

[notin]

Sounds better if you do this:

 

NYM get:

Bogaerts/Seabold

 

BOS get:

Alonso/McNeill/Megill

 

 

I have my doubts the Mets have much interest in Bogaerts given they recently spent their allowance on Lindor…

[sk7326]

Signing Semien/Baez and Schwarber would pretty much force a trade of Bogey, or we'd have no money for pitching. No ERod, Ottavino, Richards, Perez and Andriese.

 

It is worth noting here that the new CBA is going to matter a lot.

[moonslav59]

It is worth noting here that the new CBA is going to matter a lot.

 

Of course. All the talk of having about $40M to spend could vanish in a second.

[sk7326]

Of course. All the talk of having about $40M to spend could vanish in a second.

 

Yeah - though it could also work the other way. The league en masse spends the least amount of its revenue on players of the Big American Sportsball Leagues and that's obviously going to be the big issue. The Sox have been not been miserly, but we'll see how it goes.

[Larry Cook]

If Hang’em Chaim and his baseball analytics department think they can fix foltynewicz delivery and get him 100 percent healthy, he might be a low risk high reward type signing.

[a700hitter]

If Hang’em Chaim and his baseball analytics department think they can fix foltynewicz delivery and get him 100 percent healthy, he might be a low risk high reward type signing.

You mean low cost high reward. He is a long shot at being productive so that is a high risk.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Hang’em Chaim and his baseball analytics department think they can fix foltynewicz delivery and get him 100 percent healthy, he might be a low risk high reward type signing.

 

I am pretty sure Bloom has earned the benefit of the doubt. I also will worry about every guy he picks up off the trash heap as he seems to know which piece of dogshit can be pressed into a diamond

[Nick]

I was on Whitlock bandwagon before many here, even before Moon.

 

That said, I want to make a case for Whitlock being a starter.

 

It's my view that he's not a closer. He doesn't have the shut down ability.

 

He'll be better starting and trying to go as long as he can.

 

I believe he's better suited to give the team Quality Start versus being a Closer. Not a knock on him, I just think he'll be better as a starter.

[notin]

I was on Whitlock bandwagon before many here, even before Moon.

 

That said, I want to make a case for Whitlock being a starter.

 

It's my view that he's not a closer. He doesn't have the shut down ability.

 

He'll be better starting and trying to go as long as he can.

 

I believe he's better suited to give the team Quality Start versus being a Closer. Not a knock on him, I just think he'll be better as a starter.

 

And he might be one next season.

 

but any criticisms of him this year might need to highlight that before the season, he had thrown 70 IP in AA that represent all the pitching he has done since 2018...

[notin]

If Hang’em Chaim and his baseball analytics department think they can fix foltynewicz delivery and get him 100 percent healthy, he might be a low risk high reward type signing.

 

It would be worth it if they can find the missing 1.5 mph on his fastball...

[moonslav59]

I was on Whitlock bandwagon before many here, even before Moon.

 

That said, I want to make a case for Whitlock being a starter.

 

It's my view that he's not a closer. He doesn't have the shut down ability.

 

He'll be better starting and trying to go as long as he can.

 

I believe he's better suited to give the team Quality Start versus being a Closer. Not a knock on him, I just think he'll be better as a starter.

 

I'd make Houck the closer and Whitlock our #4 starter.

 

My second choice is both in the pen.

 

3rd: Houck start: Whitlock pen.

 

4th: both start.

[Bellhorn04]

I was on Whitlock bandwagon before many here, even before Moon.

 

That said, I want to make a case for Whitlock being a starter.

 

It's my view that he's not a closer. He doesn't have the shut down ability.

 

What the heck does "shut down ability" mean, exactly? In Game 4 with the Rays (the highest scoring team in baseball), Whitlock came in with a man on second and no outs in the 8th and got 6 outs on 15 pitches.

[moonslav59]

What the heck does "shut down ability" mean, exactly? In Game 4 with the Rays (the highest scoring team in baseball), Whitlock came in with a man on second and no outs in the 8th and got 6 outs on 15 pitches.

 

I think Whitlock can be very good at any role they give him in 2022.

[Bellhorn04]

Whitlock has been so good this year that it's a surprise when he gives up a run.

[mvp 78]

It would be worth it if they can find the missing 1.5 mph on his fastball...

 

It was down 3 mph from his peak in 2018. It's not just his FB though. All of his pitches have turned to slop. The lack of break on his offspeed pitches is cranking up that barrel % and launch angle.

[notin]

It was down 3 mph from his peak in 2018. It's not just his FB though. All of his pitches have turned to slop. The lack of break on his offspeed pitches is cranking up that barrel % and launch angle.

 

Have they turned tio slop or are they just not being set up the same with the reduced velocity on his fastball?

 

At best, he is a minor league contract candidate anyway..

[Nick]

What the heck does "shut down ability" mean, exactly? In Game 4 with the Rays (the highest scoring team in baseball), Whitlock came in with a man on second and no outs in the 8th and got 6 outs on 15 pitches.

 

It just means he'll do better in longer stints than one inning stint for the entire season. He did not pitch in high leverage situation until the end.

 

It means he's hittable. Not sure if Cora can simply ask him to strike out a guy when that's what's needed. I don't think he's that type of pitcher. If you don't get what I'm saying then we have nothing to talk about in this matter.

[moonslav59]

It just means he'll do better in longer stints than one inning stint for the entire season. He did not pitch in high leverage situation until the end.

 

It means he's hittable. Not sure if Cora can simply ask him to strike out a guy when that's what's needed. I don't think he's that type of pitcher. If you don't get what I'm saying then we have nothing to talk about in this matter.

 

Whitlock was used earlier in games in April and the start of May, but more and more he was used in higher leverage situations. It wasn't just the end of the season.

He pitched in 46 games, this year.

31 games were high leverage (67%)

27 games were late and close (59%)

 

Want some comps?

Barnes: 60 games- 39 high leverage (65%)- 73% were Late & Close

Ottavino: 69 games- 47 high leverage (68%) - 80% were Late & Close

 

Whitlock OPS Against:

.599 High Leverage

.600 Medium

.681 Low

 

Here is an amazing stat:

 

.211 OPS Against with 2 outs and RISP

[mvp 78]

Have they turned tio slop or are they just not being set up the same with the reduced velocity on his fastball?

 

At best, he is a minor league contract candidate anyway..

 

Spin rate and movement is down across the board.

[Nick]

Whitlock was used earlier in games in April and the start of May, but more and more he was used in higher leverage situations. It wasn't just the end of the season.

He pitched in 46 games, this year.

31 games were high leverage (67%)

27 games were late and close (59%)

 

Want some comps?

Barnes: 60 games- 39 high leverage (65%)- 73% were Late & Close

Ottavino: 69 games- 47 high leverage (68%) - 80% were Late & Close

 

Whitlock OPS Against:

.599 High Leverage

.600 Medium

.681 Low

 

Here is an amazing stat:

 

.211 OPS Against with 2 outs and RISP

 

 

My eyes tell me we want him to pitch 6 innings and hold the opponent to either 2 or 3 runs. Not to come into the 9th innings with one run lead.

[moonslav59]

My eyes tell me we want him to pitch 6 innings and hold the opponent to either 2 or 3 runs. Not to come into the 9th innings with one run lead.

 

I've said all along, I think Whitlock is a better choice to start in 2022 over Houck.

I also think Houck rates to be a very good closer.

 

That being said, I think Whitlock would do very well in the pen, next year, too.

 

It all depends on who we add to our roster.

[moonslav59]

My eyes tell me we want him to pitch 6 innings and hold the opponent to either 2 or 3 runs. Not to come into the 9th innings with one run lead.

 

That's a different argument than saying he wasn't used in high leverage situations, until the end of this year.

[notin]

Spin rate and movement is down across the board.

 

Spin rate is down for a lot of pitchers.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if Folty was Spidering up the ball. But a lot of pitchers on the market will be.

 

Like I said, at best he is a candidate for MiLB contract. I would have no problems with that...