A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Some FWAR Numbers:

 

7.5 Scherzer 2018

6.7 Lynn 2019

6.6 Verlander 2018

6.5 Scherzer 2019

6.4 Verlander 2019

6.0 Morton 2019

5.4 Greinke 2019

5.4 Scherzer 2021

4.5 Morton 2021

4.0 Lynn 2021

3.8 Wainwright 2021

2.3 Sabathia 2018

1.7 R Hill 2021

1.3 Greinke 2021

 

Maybe 30 is the new 28 and 34 is the new 32...

 

Top fWAR 2018-2021 combined

23.5 deGrom (Ages 30-33)

21.1 Scherzer (33-36)

20.0 Cole (27-30)

18.0 Wheeler (28-31)

15.4 A Nola (25-28)

14.8 L Lynn (31-34)

14.2 Morton (34-37)

14.0 Buehler

13.9 Bieber

13.3 Bauer

13.2 Marquez

13.0 Verlander (35-37- missed 2021 at age 38)

15. Corbin 11.9

16. Kershaw 11.7 (30-33)

17. Greinke 11.7 (34-37)

[notin]

Yes, Mookie's height is the real reason they let him go.

 

Technically his deal was related to the height of the stack of money he wanted…

[mvp 78]

Ray will get a QO.

 

I wouldn’t give Stroman a Price contract, but a Lackey deal seems reasonable…

 

He's going to get more than 5/82. He'll be more like 5/125.

[moonslav59]

And as you know, we're strongly expecting at least one of them to be in the rotation.

 

My guess is they put Whitlock into the 4 slot, Houck as the closer and spend on a solid #2 starter, a solid set up man and a pitching depth pitcher that hopefully works out better than Perez.

 

We spend some on a utility infielder and maybe trade Vaz or Bogey (possibly adding Duran or 1 from Dalbec/Casas) and spend to fill their opening(s).

[mvp 78]

But Stroman's too short to earn a longterm deal. His body is bound to break down, and he's sure to join Mookie at the retirement home, cursing together at the TV in the community room because MLB channel is blacking out the local nine.

 

A 5 year deal gets him to age 35. Seems fine to me.

[moonslav59]

He's going to get more than 5/82. He'll be more like 5/125.

 

I likely gets a team to give him 6 years.

 

I'd love getting him, but I don't want another burden like Price.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Technically his deal was related to the height of the stack of money he wanted…

 

Everyone knows that people under six feet tall have smaller ligaments and tendons in their hands that always break down from counting large stacks of cash. I'm pretty sure I read this on talksox or in the Deny Science Journal.

[mvp 78]

I likely gets a team to give him 6 years.

 

I'd love getting him, but I don't want another burden like Price.

 

His burden is much less substantial than Price's. Stroman also has a lot less miles on his arm.

[moonslav59]

His burden is much less substantial than Price's. Stroman also has a lot less miles on his arm.

 

But, way worse numbers.

 

While having less IP can be a blessing, it can also be a warning about durability and stamina. He's not had over 185 IP since 2017.

 

He has had a couple non great years since 2016:

4.37/1.308 in 2016

5.54/1.476 in 2018

 

His best 3 seasons were 2017, 2019 and 2021. (He did not pitch in 2020.)

 

His only 2 200 IP seasons were 2016 & 2017.

 

His 1.145 WHIP in 2021 might be an outlier, as his prvious best was 1.289 way back in '16. His career WHIP is 1.266. The 3.63 ERA looks nice, and the 3.49 FIP is not bad, but it's also not close to what Price looked like at the time of his signing.

 

Stroman will turn 31, next May. Price was about the same age at signing time, but he was coming off a 3 year average of 3.01/1.083 with an FIP of 2.85.)

 

No, Stroman won't get Price money, but he might get close to 7 years, and he just does not seem like the guy you wait several years to decide to splurge on.

[Nick]

Can we just forget the notion of spending $10M for Richards? He failed period. U want to give unproven reliever that kind of $? R u that stupid?

[Bellhorn04]

Can we just forget the notion of spending $10M for Richards? He failed period. U want to give unproven reliever that kind of $? R u that stupid?

 

Why are you even bringing it up? It hasn't been mentioned on this thread for a while. moon was the only one who talked about it and he explained why.

[moonslav59]

Why are you even bringing it up? It hasn't been mentioned on this thread for a while. moon was the only one who talked about it and he explained why.

 

...And I never said I wanted us to take the option.

 

The option is $10M, but the buy out is $1.5M, so the difference is $8.5M for one year- about what we are paying Barnes times 3 years.

 

I am not for giving him the option. I'm pretty sure we can do better.

 

I've also been given crap for saying the ERod QO issue might be a closer call than many think it is. It's a one year deal with the chance for a nice sandwich pick, if he turns it down.

 

At this time, I do not have a strong opinion of ERod's return. He's been a winner for years, and had serious COVID-related health issues, last year that could have life-long implications. That can be viewed as a negative, but it could also be viewed as part of the reason he sucked over his first 14 starts. One positive thing to look at is his last 16 starts:

 

3.87 ERA (.716 OPS Against despite the .351 BAbip)

3.07 FIP

 

I suspect this will be hotly debated, this fall, and how he does tonight will weigh heavy on some poster's opinions.

[oldtimer]

The Sox are not fully competitive as constituted. Major changes are needed. Lots of fans will squawk when Bloom makes them. I hope Henry gives him the resources and go ahead to move players.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are not fully competitive as constituted. Major changes are needed. Lots of fans will squawk when Bloom makes them. I hope Henry gives him the resources and go ahead to move players.

 

I think Henry will allow some ground-shaking moves, if Bloom thinks they are called for. Henry is the wallet. If Bloom convinces him we can be a top competitor, next year, I think he'll open up the wallet and okay bold moves.

 

The thing about trading Vaz, JD or Bogey is that those trades will likely save money- perhaps just temporarily, but nevertheless, money-savers. If Bloom wants to trade Bogey- the biggest fan darling on the team- I think Henry will go along with it.

[moonslav59]

FA Pitchers by fWAR in 2021

3.4 Stroman

4.5 Gausman

5.4 Scherzer

3.3 Kershaw

n/a Syndergaard

3.9 R Ray

3.6 ERod

2.9 Miley

2.6 Matz

2.5 Cobb

2.4 Jon Gray

1.3 Greinke

n/a Verlander

1.6 Duffy

1.3 Pineda

 

 

1.7 Jansen

1.9 Iglesias

 

[notin]

Can we just forget the notion of spending $10M for Richards? He failed period. U want to give unproven reliever that kind of $? R u that stupid?

 

Richards first 20.2 IP from the bullpen had a 0.87 ERA and a .542 OPSA. But those last 3 innings apparently nullify them…

[notin]

FA Pitchers by fWAR in 2021

3.4 Stroman

4.5 Gausman

5.4 Scherzer

3.3 Kershaw

n/a Syndergaard

3.9 R Ray

3.6 ERod

2.9 Miley

2.6 Matz

2.5 Cobb

2.4 Jon Gray

1.3 Greinke

n/a Verlander

1.6 Duffy

1.3 Pineda

 

 

1.7 Jansen

1.9 Iglesias

 

 

 

Also, Eduardo Rodriguez: 3.6

[Bellhorn04]

Also, Eduardo Rodriguez: 3.6

 

Also known as ERod, I think.

[notin]

Also known as ERod, I think.

 

I totally missed that, and I was looking for him…

[notin]

Also known as ERod, I think.

 

I will say, I’d much prefer ERod returning over the massive overpayment it will take to land Robbie Ray…

[Bellhorn04]

Seems like a very strong chance they give ERod a QO. Will he accept it is the question.

[notin]

Seems like a very strong chance they give ERod a QO. Will he accept it is the question.

 

I wouldn’t if I was ERod. I think he can land a multi year deal…

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn’t if I was ERod. I think he can land a multi year deal…

 

Agreed. Bloom might make a quick multi year offer. It's hard to say exactly what he's going to do this offseason.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Richards first 20.2 IP from the bullpen had a 0.87 ERA and a .542 OPSA. But those last 3 innings apparently nullify them…

 

No, but the reason he was brutal this past week vs. NY and O's is why fans can't trust him when he pitches today. And he will. So will Perez, at some point... and Davis. Who am I missing -- Buzardo?

 

We can only hope any injury preventing Richards from throwing strikes is healing... unless it's nerves. Either way, it's on the training staff to issue meds to mask both (can the fans get some, too?).

[notin]

No, but the reason he was brutal this past week vs. NY and O's is why fans can't trust him when he pitches today. And he will. So will Perez, at some point... and Davis. Who am I missing -- Buzardo?

 

We can only hope any injury preventing Richards from throwing strikes is healing... unless it's nerves. Either way, it's on the training staff to issue meds to mask both (can the fans get some, too?).

 

What is the reason he was brutal last week?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What is the reason he was brutal last week?

 

Fans don't know, and the club surely won't tell us, so the reason is conjecture. Dealing with an undisclosed injury or malady (they all have them at this point in the year) is more plausible than crumbling under pressure, though the first can understandably lead to the second.

[notin]

Fans don't know, and the club surely won't tell us, so the reason is conjecture. Dealing with an undisclosed injury or malady (they all have them at this point in the year) is more plausible than crumbling under pressure, though the first can understandably lead to the second.

 

 

It’s also possible he is just worn out after having throwing 134 innings this year, the most he’s thrown since 2015 and about as many as the last 3 seasons combined…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It’s also possible he is just worn out after having throwing 134 innings this year, the most he’s thrown since 2015 and about as many as the last 3 seasons combined…

 

If that's the problem, don't use him anymore. With the new three-batter rule, Richards can't even be trusted to just unintentionally intentionally walk Juan Soto.

[notin]

If that's the problem, don't use him anymore. With the new three-batter rule, Richards can't even be trusted to just unintentionally intentionally walk Juan Soto.

 

And it might be best to not use him the next two games.

 

But it certainly makes sense, whereas an undisclosed injury or malady would make Cora look stupid for using him…

[moonslav59]

Also, Eduardo Rodriguez: 3.6

 

He's there as "ERod"