A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Richards first 20.2 IP from the bullpen had a 0.87 ERA and a .542 OPSA. But those last 3 innings apparently nullify them…

 

As much as I hate to use tiny sample sizes to change my position, his whole sample size as a RP'er is so small, it's a tough call. I'm leaning heavily towards a no on the option, but we could offer him something more reasonable.

 

I wonder if his agent tries to market him as a starter or RP'er or both.

[moonslav59]

I will say, I’d much prefer ERod returning over the massive overpayment it will take to land Robbie Ray…

 

The one year, low-risk aspect of the QO carries a lot of weight.

 

If we do offer him a QO, and he takes it, I'd still want us to add a better starter than he is.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn’t if I was ERod. I think he can land a multi year deal…

 

He might think a great 2022 could land him a much better deal in 2023, but then again, he'll be a year older.

[Bellhorn04]

He might think a great 2022 could land him a much better deal in 2023, but then again, he'll be a year older.

 

Stroman and Gausman took the QO's last year and it paid off for them, so he might look at that.

[moonslav59]

Stroman and Gausman took the QO's last year and it paid off for them, so he might look at that.

 

I think ERod might look at his second half and say, "I can do that for all of 2022 and land a mega deal," or he might worry about injury, COVID-related relapses or just plain old decline or off year and take the longer term money secured.

 

If I were him, I'd turn it down. GMs see his second half and 2017-2019 numbers and will pay him well.

[Nick]

Richards first 20.2 IP from the bullpen had a 0.87 ERA and a .542 OPSA. But those last 3 innings apparently nullify them…

 

Bloom was brilliant with Richards contract. He built in an escape hatch just in case it didn't work out.

 

I don't give a f*** about his last three innings. I care about what he was signed to do for the Sox, to start.

 

You talk about SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. Now you and your kind wants Bloom to spend $10M based on 20.2 IP.? What is wrong with you people.

 

Do you think Bloom spent all these years in Rays organization to pick up a club option based on some f***ING 20.2 IP sample and not the entirety of his performance?

 

Explain to me how Richards is worth $10M based on what he did in 2021. I anxiously wait.

Edited October 2, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

As much as I hate to use tiny sample sizes to change my position, his whole sample size as a RP'er is so small, it's a tough call. I'm leaning heavily towards a no on the option, but we could offer him something more reasonable.

 

I wonder if his agent tries to market him as a starter or RP'er or both.

 

Wise words moon. You're king of anti-small sample size. You would have lost credibility with me.

[moonslav59]

Bloom was brilliant with Richards contract. He built in an escape hatch just in case it didn't work out.

 

I don't give a f*** about his last three innings. I care about what he was signed to do for the Sox, to start.

 

You talk about SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. Now you and your kind wants Bloom to spend $10M based on 20.2 IP.? What is wrong with you people.

 

Do you think Bloom spent all these years in Rays organization to pick up a club option based on some f***ING 20.2 IP sample and not the entirety of his performance?

 

Explain to me how Richards is worth $10M based on what he did in 2021. I anxiously wait.

 

Nick, nobody is saying give him the option. Nobody.

 

You keep acting like somebody is.

 

Also, yes, it's $10M, but with the $1.5M buyout, it is really an $8.5M choice. Maybe that does not change anyone's mind, but it's not really a $10M option. That $1.5M counted against the 2021 luxury tax for a reason.

[moonslav59]

Bloom was brilliant with Richards contract. He built in an escape hatch just in case it didn't work out.

 

.

 

The only guy Bloom signed for more than 1 year was Kike. More brilliance.

 

Okay, Sawamura, too, but that was under $2M a year.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, I hate to get hung up on the CERA thing (LOL), but look at these numbers:

 

Whitlock with Vaz

62.2 IP

1.58 ERA

.590 OPS

 

Houck with Vaz

50.1 IP

1.79 ERA

.551 OPS

 

We all agree that Whitlock and Houck are keys to our 2022 success.

 

If Vaz is not good with pitchers, how in the heck can these 2 young pitchers put up such amazing numbers with him?

 

You kind of have to answer that question before giving Vaz the boot.

 

Updated Houck with Vaz:

 

55.1 IP

1.63 ERA

.510 OPS

 

Amazing!

[moonslav59]

Updated Houck with Vaz:

 

55.1 IP

1.63 ERA

.510 OPS

 

Amazing!

 

No doubt, some pitchers just feel more comfortable with catcher A vs catcher B. While I would caution these are small sample sizes, I've never been one to say one catcher does better with every pitcher, and I've never proclaimed to know why some pitchers just do way better with A vs B, and some it doesn't seem to matter.

 

I'm not sure we should decide to keep Vaz solely on the fact that he does better with two of our youngest pitchers, but it should count for something. Both Houck and Whitlock may get many more innings, next year, if we choose to use them both as starters.

 

Either way, we have just one year of team control on Vaz, and the option is $7M.

 

Keep him.

Refuse the option

Refuse the option and sign his for less or lose him.

Give the option and trade him.

 

All four options have merit.

[notin]

Nick, nobody is saying give him the option. Nobody.

 

You keep acting like somebody is.

 

Also, yes, it's $10M, but with the $1.5M buyout, it is really an $8.5M choice. Maybe that does not change anyone's mind, but it's not really a $10M option. That $1.5M counted against the 2021 luxury tax for a reason.

 

Then it comes down to what can you replace him with for $8.5 mill. The premier closer on the free agent market might be Rasiel Iglesias (unless you prefer older, aging and oft-injured pitchers like Kenley Jansen and Dellin Betances). Think Iglesias signs for less?

 

Kimbrel got 3 years $43mill at Iglesias’ age. That might be a bit of a lofty goal for Rasiel, but I do think he gets more than $8.5 mill and certainly more than one year…

[notin]

No doubt, some pitchers just feel more comfortable with catcher A vs catcher B. While I would caution these are small sample sizes, I've never been one to say one catcher does better with every pitcher, and I've never proclaimed to know why some pitchers just do way better with A vs B, and some it doesn't seem to matter.

 

I'm not sure we should decide to keep Vaz solely on the fact that he does better with two of our youngest pitchers, but it should count for something. Both Houck and Whitlock may get many more innings, next year, if we choose to use them both as starters.

 

Either way, we have just one year of team control on Vaz, and the option is $7M.

 

Keep him.

Refuse the option

Refuse the option and sign his for less or lose him.

Give the option and trade him.

 

All four options have merit.

 

The choice of refusing the option and signing him for less probably means signing him for longer.

 

Net $8.5 mill for one more year might be safer than 3 years $21 mill. It might be the worse choice as well, but that can only be determined over time…

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to picture Bloom spending big on a closer.

[moonslav59]

Then it comes down to what can you replace him with for $8.5 mill. The premier closer on the free agent market might be Rasiel Iglesias (unless you prefer older, aging and oft-injured pitchers like Kenley Jansen and Dellin Betances). Think Iglesias signs for less?

 

Kimbrel got 3 years $43mill at Iglesias’ age. That might be a bit of a lofty goal for Rasiel, but I do think he gets more than $8.5 mill and certainly more than one year…

 

It could be as simple as making Houck the closer and Whitlock the number 1 set up man that can gives us 2 innings, often.

 

That forces us to add a solid starter or two, one of which might be ERod, but certainly that is an option.

 

Another option would be to make Houck the closer and Whitlock a starter. Then, we need to add a couple solid set up men and NOT a closer.

[moonslav59]

The choice of refusing the option and signing him for less probably means signing him for longer.

 

Net $8.5 mill for one more year might be safer than 3 years $21 mill. It might be the worse choice as well, but that can only be determined over time…

 

I was actually talking about Vaz on the post you responded to.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It could be as simple as making Houck the closer and Whitlock the number 1 set up man that can gives us 2 innings, often.

 

That forces us to add a solid starter or two, one of which might be ERod, but certainly that is an option.

 

Another option would be to make Houck the closer and Whitlock a starter. Then, we need to add a couple solid set up men and NOT a closer.

 

Would it shock anyone if Houck becomes a closer this week?

[notin]

Would it shock anyone if Houck becomes a closer this week?

 

Me…

[moonslav59]

Me…

 

Why? Because you think he's our playoff 4th starter over Pivetta? (Sometimes a 4th starter hardly starts in the playoffs, too.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Me…

 

I said "a" closer -- not "the" closer. Is it so inconceivable that in a best-of-five ALDS, with a Sox rotation of say, ERod-Sale-Eovaldi, that Houck could relieve one in the either the 6th or 7th and be as lights-out as he was yesterday so that Cora lets him finish off a victory?

 

And no fair replying that it's inconceivable Boston could even get to the ALDS.

[Larry Cook]

Would it shock anyone if Houck becomes a closer this week?

 

I have been saying that houck should be our closer since he was drafted.

[moonslav59]

I have been saying that houck should be our closer since he was drafted.

 

Yes, you did, and more and more people are seeing that as the best possible option.

 

We need a closer, next year.

We have a limited budget, and good FA closers are very expensive.

We want to avoid trading young players for anyone, maybe more so for an established closer.

We have a young, inexpensive pitcher who might lack the pitching repertoire to be a great starter.

 

Makes sense.

[moonslav59]

Is there a single poster who would give Richards the $10M option?

 

I think everyone wants to give him the $1.5M buy out he did not earn and say good bye.

[notin]

I was actually talking about Vaz on the post you responded to.

 

Vaz' option will be picked up. Book it...

[moonslav59]

Vaz' option will be picked up. Book it...

 

Agreed, but when you said $8.5M and not Vaz's $7M, I thought you had them confused.

 

I think we give him the $7M and trade him, but hey, Houck and Whitlock do great with him.

[Larry Cook]

1.) we give Rodriguez a q.o. But he leaves.

2.) Martinez would be stupid to opt out.

3.) schwarber leaves via free agency.

4.) we clean out the garbage on the 40 man roster via traded and dfa.

5.) we sign at least 4 medium free agents that contribute more than people expect.

[moonslav59]

1.) we give Rodriguez a q.o. But he leaves.

2.) Martinez would be stupid to opt out.

3.) schwarber leaves via free agency.

4.) we clean out the garbage on the 40 man roster via traded and dfa.

5.) we sign at least 4 medium free agents that contribute more than people expect.

 

More specifics on #4 would be nice.

[moonslav59]

1.) we give Rodriguez a q.o. But he leaves.

2.) Martinez would be stupid to opt out.

3.) schwarber leaves via free agency.

4.) we clean out the garbage on the 40 man roster via traded and dfa.

5.) we sign at least 4 medium free agents that contribute more than people expect.

 

I'd say...

1) ERod refuses the QO and we get a comp pick.

2) JD does not opt out.

3) Schwarber, Ottavino, Robles and some lesser players go to free agency.

4) We do not take the options on Richards or Perez, but we do take Vaz's $7M option.

5) We sign 4 moderate free agents and a few low cost scrubs.

 

I'm thinking we may look at but not hand away the 3 players set to be free agents after 2022:

Bogey

JD

Vaz

(Hard to count on even one of these happening.)

 

Bringing Iggy, Shaw or Robles back might happen.

 

Where we slot Whiltock and Houck are slotted in the staff is a bit up in the air, here is the foundation for 2022:

 

SP1. Sale

SP2. Eovaldi

SP3. Whitlock

SP4. Pivetta

SP5. Seabold

 

RP1. Houck

RP2. Taylor

RP3. Barnes

RP4. DHern

RP5. Brasier

RP6. Sawamura

RP7. Valdez

RP8. Davis/Bazardo

 

C Vaz, Plawecki

1B Dalbec, Casas

2B Arroyo, Arauz

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Verdugo, Duran/Cordero

CF Kike

RF Renfroe

DH JD

 

My guess is we sign a solid #2 SP'er, #4 SP'er, Set-up man & Utility Infielder (Iggy?). That would create this:

 

S1. Sale

S2. ____

S3. Eovaldi

S4. ____

S5. Pivetta (Seabold)

 

R1. Houck

R2. Whitlock

R3. _____

R4. Barnes

R5. Taylor

R6. DHern

R7. Brasier

R8. Sawamura

R9. Valdez/Davis/Bazardo

 

C Vaz, Plawecki

1B Dalbec, Casas

2B Arroyo, _____ (Iggy?)

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Verdugo, Duran/Cordero

CF Kike

RF Renfroe

DH JD

 

[oldtimer]

I'd say...

1) ERod refuses the QO and we get a comp pick.

2) JD does not opt out.

3) Schwarber, Ottavino, Robles and some lesser players go to free agency.

4) We do not take the options on Richards or Perez, but we do take Vaz's $7M option.

5) We sign 4 moderate free agents and a few low cost scrubs.

 

I'm thinking we may look at but not hand away the 3 players set to be free agents after 2022:

Bogey

JD

Vaz

(Hard to count on even one of these happening.)

 

Bringing Iggy, Shaw or Robles back might happen.

 

Where we slot Whiltock and Houck are slotted in the staff is a bit up in the air, here is the foundation for 2022:

 

SP1. Sale

SP2. Eovaldi

SP3. Whitlock

SP4. Pivetta

SP5. Seabold

 

RP1. Houck

RP2. Taylor

RP3. Barnes

RP4. DHern

RP5. Brasier

RP6. Sawamura

RP7. Valdez

RP8. Davis/Bazardo

 

C Vaz, Plawecki

1B Dalbec, Casas

2B Arroyo, Arauz

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Verdugo, Duran/Cordero

CF Kike

RF Renfroe

DH JD

 

My guess is we sign a solid #2 SP'er, #4 SP'er, Set-up man & Utility Infielder (Iggy?). That would create this:

 

S1. Sale

S2. ____

S3. Eovaldi

S4. ____

S5. Pivetta (Seabold)

 

R1. Houck

R2. Whitlock

R3. _____

R4. Barnes

R5. Taylor

R6. DHern

R7. Brasier

R8. Sawamura

R9. Valdez/Davis/Bazardo

 

C Vaz, Plawecki

1B Dalbec, Casas

2B Arroyo, _____ (Iggy?)

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Verdugo, Duran/Cordero

CF Kike

RF Renfroe

DH JD

 

You are saying what you think may happen, but not necessarily what you recommend for next season. Some of what happens will be based upon how much Henry is willing to spend and how competitive the front office sees the team in 2022. If more resources were available, you might well recommend a different path.

 

S1. Sale (I no longer see Sale as our #1 starter despite his ace level contract through 2024. I see him as a #3 if he can stay healthy and perhaps improve.)

S2. ____ (I'd be thrilled if we could pick up a #2 level starter to bolster the staff. Bif bucks but hopefully reasonable contract length depending on his age)

S3. Eovaldi (I see Eovaldi as our current #1 starter or #2. He is here through 2022 and is worth his contract.)

S4. I happy with Pivetta as a #4 or #5 starter. I think Bloom got a steal with him

S5. I would be happy if Bloom picks up a serviceable #4 or #5 starter while I expect E-Rod to opt for FA and Richards and Perez to be gone.)

S6. I think we look at Seabold, Houck and Witlock as furnishing a starter when the inevitable injuries occr.

 

R1. Houck

R2. Whitlock

R3. _____ (I'm for adding a quality RP as a setup man

R4. Barnes ( I would trade Barnes if we see an interested party and we can get a solid return)

R5. Taylor

R6. DHern

R7. Brasier

R8. Sawamura

R9. Valdez/Davis/Bazardo (I would keep Robles before Davis. Both have issues but Robles still has an impact arm. Other relief help from the minors will be needed. The choices may expand for next year)

 

C Vaz, Plawecki (Finding a FA catcher we can afford could be difficult, but replacing Vaz should be a Bloom priority. Hernandez in the minors may offer some flexibility as a backup)

1B Dalbec, Casas (The option of using Devers at 1st should be explored. Hold on to Dalbec for his utility and delay Casas until 2023 or the experimental results can be assessed

2B Arroyo ( Go into the FA market and sign Simien and keep Arroyo for Util. Don't resign Iggy)

SS Bogaerts (Move Bogie to third where range issues will not be a problem. Sign Trevor Story)

3rd devers (move Devers to first and Bogie to 3rd)

 

LF Verdugo (Verdugo is solid and Duran can backup the outfield. Time to cut Cordero loose)

CF Kike (If we don't bring Kike to 2nd then he has done well in CF and can be left there

RF Renfroe (Renfroe has had his best offensive year and is acceptable even if not a top defensive outiflelder

DH JDM ( If JDM doesn't opt out, I would trade him and bring in Schwaber)

 

What I am suggesting would require a large expenditure but would make us a powerful team capable of competing at the highest level. I doubt if Bloom will have the inclination, or the mandate to make such bold moves. It is a path to the top for 2022.

Edited October 4, 2021 by oldtimer

[jad]

1.) we give Rodriguez a q.o. But he leaves.

2.) Martinez would be stupid to opt out.

3.) schwarber leaves via free agency.

4.) we clean out the garbage on the 40 man roster via traded and dfa.

5.) we sign at least 4 medium free agents that contribute more than people expect.

 

Yes, it's crucial to id who the 'garbage' is, and why other teams are so blind to that we can trade them for 'medium free agents'. Nearly everyone on the roster has been called garbage at some point this year, so it's hard to keep track.