A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

...and then all the data that shows Vaz is much better at pitch-framing and blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out base-stealers. However, it appears only I look at CERA and OPS against numbers pitcher by pitcher that slightly favors Plawecki.

 

If overall CERA and OPS favors Vaz, you are cherry picking your numbers.

[moonslav59]

If overall CERA and OPS favors Vaz, you are cherry picking your numbers.

 

You don't get it.

 

Let's say Vaz catches mostly Sale and Eovaldi, and Plawecki catches mostly Richards and Perez, so Vaz has the better overall CERA, however, Plawecki does better with all 4 pitchers (yes, it's possible), you still say Vaz is better?

 

Example:

 

Sale

2.50 w Vaz 150 IP

2.00 w Plaw 50 IP

 

Eovaldi

4.50 w Vaz 150 IP

4.00 w Plaw50 IP

 

Richards

4.00 w Plawecki 150 IP

5.00 w Vaz 50 IP

 

Perez

4.00 w Plawecki 150 IP

5.00 w Vaz 50 IP

 

Vaz would have the better overall CERA but do worse with every pitcher.

 

You still want Vaz starting with every pitcher.?

Edited August 12, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If overall CERA and OPS favors Vaz, you are cherry picking your numbers.

 

Most articles written about CERA and OPS against numbers by catcher talk about not comparing catchers from different teams with these numbers and not looking at overall CERA/OPS against, unless both catchers catch almost all pitchers very evenly (highly unlikely).

[mvp 78]

You don't get it.

 

Right back at you buddy.

[moonslav59]

Right back at you buddy.

 

Can you answer the question in the example I gave, where Vaz had the overall better CERA but was worse with every pitcher. Which catcher is better?

 

(Is Vaz better only because he catches better pitchers more often?)

[moonslav59]

Right back at you buddy.

 

I get what you're saying. I'm not sure you get my point.

[Bellhorn04]

Can you answer the question in the example I gave, where Vaz had the overall better CERA but was worse with every pitcher. Which catcher is better?

 

(Is Vaz better only because he catches better pitchers more often?)

 

Plaw has a terrible CERA with the bullpen. That's why his overall CERA is worse.

[mvp 78]

I get what you're saying. I'm not sure you get my point.

 

You are saying they mainly trot out Plawecki with 5th starters. That Vaz handles the top of the rotation. I'm not sure I agree that's the case. I agree with the theory, but not in practice.

[mvp 78]

Plaw has a terrible CERA with the bullpen. That's why his overall CERA is worse.

 

He only catches the bad bullpen arms.

[moonslav59]

Plaw has a terrible CERA with the bullpen. That's why his overall CERA is worse.

 

I get that, and that's one reason I am not for making Plawecki the starting catcher over Vaz.

 

I wanted an answer to the hypothetical question that highlights why overall CERA does not tell the true story, when catchers catch one or two pitchers way more than the others.

[moonslav59]

You are saying they mainly trot out Plawecki with 5th starters. That Vaz handles the top of the rotation. I'm not sure I agree that's the case. I agree with the theory, but not in practice.

 

No, that's not what I'm saying.

 

I'm saying it is possible total CERA numbers are misleading due to one pitcher catching much better pitchers much more often than the other and vice versa with bad pitchers.

 

This is not the case with Plawecki and Vaz, as far as I can see. I did not look at RP'er comps, because all their sample sizes are super small, but I'm sure Vaz must do better with more, because his overall CERA is better than Plawecki's.

 

Again, I was only trying to point out the flaws of using overall CERA and OPS against numbers to compare catchers from the same team. Our team often incorporates a type of loose pitchers with caddies system. We've had years where some starters were never caught by one of our catchers. Can you see how this would greatly skew the overall CERA numbers? Yes or no?

 

[mvp 78]

No, that's not what I'm saying.

 

I'm saying it is possible total CERA numbers are misleading due to one pitcher catching much better pitchers much more often than the other and vice versa with bad pitchers.

 

This is not the case with Plawecki and Vaz, as far as I can see. I did not look at RP'er comps, because all their sample sizes are super small, but I'm sure Vaz must do better with more, because his overall CERA is better than Plawecki's.

 

Again, I was only trying to point out the flaws of using overall CERA and OPS against numbers to compare catchers from the same team. Our team often incorporates a type of loose pitchers with caddies system. We've had years where some starters were never caught by one of our catchers. Can you see how this would greatly skew the overall CERA numbers? Yes or no?

 

 

You are the only one here who ever brings up CERA. It's a flawed stat. Why do you keep bringing it up?

[moonslav59]

I realize it's a sticky argument. If catcher determine so much how pitchers do, then maybe good pitchers are only good, because they had the better catcher, and the whole argument spirals out of control.

 

That being said, look at the PA differentials between Vaz and Plawecki:

 

Red= better differential by more than .010.

 

With Vaz (OPS Against)

475 ERod (.771)

441 Richards (.895)

387 Perez (.784)

381 Pivetta (.717)

243 Eovaldi (.723)

208 Whitlock (.589)

164 Sawamura (.757)

142 Barnes (.474)

141 Andriese (1.002)

136 Ottavino (.520)

111 Taylor (.669)

106 D Hern (.762)

96 Valdez (.702)

77 Workman (.828)

75 Rios (.599)

49 Houck (.459)

40 Brice (1.056)

Under 12 PAs: Bazardo .450, Davis .697, Robles 1.045, Brennan .788, Brewer 1.444, Arauz 1.150

 

with Plawecki

233 Eovaldi .668

118 Pivetta .718

66 Perez 1.248

56 Richards .682

56 Taylor .673

56 Houck .692

56 Ottavino .855

44 DHern .540

43 Valdez .418

33 Barnes .897

30 Weber 1.500

27 Andriese .675

24 Brice .492

19 Whitlock 1.158

12 Sawamura .444

Under 12 PAs: Davis 1.000, Rios .722,Workman 1.167, Arroyo 1.400, Marwin .000

 

The biggest swings in ratio of pitchers with specific catchers are these:

 

Only Vaz has caught ERod

Only Plawecki has caught Weber

 

Plawecki has higher %'s per PAs with Eovaldi & Pivetta than Vaz

Vaz has higher %'s with Whitlock, Barnes & Taylor

 

(I might have missed other wide disparities.)

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

You are the only one here who ever brings up CERA. It's a flawed stat. Why do you keep bringing it up?

 

All stats are flawed.

 

CERA and OPS against by catcher is much more flawed when used wrongly.

 

When the numbers continually show the same thing every year, except with Swihart, that the vast majority of pitchers with significant sample sizes with both catchers do better with the catcher not named Vazquez, that should not mean anything?

 

Yet, a 20 games sample size by Duran is so telling?

[notin]

You are the only one here who ever brings up CERA. It's a flawed stat. Why do you keep bringing it up?

 

I’m not saying it isn’t flawed, but there seems to be some sort of pervasive feeling in baseball nerd circles that CERA has little to no value, but no one ever says why.

 

Most flawed stats at least carry a reason. Why is CERA, when used to compare performance of the same pitchers with different catchers, a flawed stat?

[mvp 78]

I’m not saying it isn’t flawed, but there seems to be some sort of pervasive feeling in baseball nerd circles that CERA has little to no value, but no one ever says why.

 

Most flawed stats at least carry a reason. Why is CERA, when used to compare performance of the same pitchers with different catchers, a flawed stat?

 

1. SSS

2. Vaz catches Sale vs O's and Plaw catches Sale vs Toronto, CERA doesn't take into account opponents, does it? Is there a CERA+?

[dgalehouse]

The only fair way to evaluate a catcher is xCERA+ , while adding in the WHIP, FIP , ZIP , ZIPplus4 , DIP and BLIP. .

[mvp 78]

The only fair way to evaluate a catcher is xCERA+ , while adding in the WHIP, FIP , ZIP , ZIPplus4 , DIP and BLIP. .

 

Agreed. It's what the nerd on the Sox broadcasts would want.

[Maxbialystock]

You are the only one here who ever brings up CERA. It's a flawed stat. Why do you keep bringing it up?

 

All stats have flaws, but most stats, even flawed ones, have useful information.

 

I like CERA--or even moonslav's OPS against--as a way of looking at how well catchers handle pitchers because I emphatically believe what Mike Mussina reportedly said: pitchers often struggle because that don't have their best stuff or good command or both in every game.

 

Thus, no matter what the game plan for going after opposing hitters may say, the pitcher and catcher must improvise based on what that pitcher has that day. And that especially applies to this season when pitchers suddenly have to deal with not doctoring up the baseball to get more spin/action/movement on their pitches.

 

Thus it is interesting to me that this year Vazquez was Eovaldi's primary catcher before the Commish's dictum hit MLB in June and that Plawecki and Wong have caught Eovaldi more than Vazquez after the dictum.

 

On the other hand, it sure looks as though Vazquez is the right guy to catch ERod, and maybe Plawecki is better with Pivetta.

 

As for Perez and Richards, I don't care because they both stink.

 

So right now I'm thinking the tiebreaker is that Vazquez is better with the bullpen, and the bullpen has saved the Sox ass innumerable times this year. Plus all that stuff about better mechanics, arm strength, whatever.

 

My cautionary note, however, is that the bullpen has stunk for 3 straight games, and in 2 of those games Vazquez was catching when Cora brought in his best relievers, all of whom were pounded. In the 3d game, last night, Plawecki did a great job with Eovaldi and Rios, but lousy with Valdez--but also with an insurmountable 20-1 lead.

 

Bottom line, regardless of CERA or any other stat: Cora knows what he is doing and prefers Vazquez. That said, my guess is Plawecki, catching every 5th game, will continue to catch Eovaldi.

[mvp 78]

I would agree that certain pitchers may prefer to throw to certain catchers.

[MADSTORK]

I never said the 4 guys we got plus some salary relief was all going to show results, this year. I just corrected your 2 player comment.

 

You can choose to think negatively. You can't make me think that way.

 

I like Winckowski. Valdez and Gambrel have some upside, and the more guys like them we have, the better chances a few make it bigtime.

 

 

What Salary Relief?

 

It was a Garbage trade made by a GM who is used to adding players via the scrap yard

 

MGonzalez Age 32, result 3million. DSantana Age 30 result 1.7million

 

AB at 6.6 million was a bargain. Age 27 still with upside and was and is a World Champion. Better yet a homegrown player.

 

Now you go out and acquire more payroll in Schwarber at what another 3million who is not a contact hitter. KS is a glorified sunday softball hitter.

 

7.7 million in 3 stiffs While Beni was shipped off in his prime.

 

Brilliant! Keep on Trading Orlando, you ain't made a bad move yet!

[MADSTORK]

Beni's 719 OPS would be 9th for the Red Sox. A trade straight up for Winckowski would have been a good deal for the Sox.

 

With all due respect, Your Nuts!

[mvp 78]

With all due respect, Your Nuts!

 

That's fine. Do you think a slow footed LFer with a 719 OPS, hitting 9th and fielding poorly would be of value to this team?

[mvp 78]

At 200 AB's, Beni is 91st in MLB OFers in fWAR. That's not ideal.

[Bellhorn04]

At 200 AB's, Beni is 91st in MLB OFers in fWAR. That's not ideal.

 

STORK is a sharp one!

[MADSTORK]

That's fine. Do you think a slow footed LFer with a 719 OPS, hitting 9th and fielding poorly would be of value to this team?

 

 

Patience and upside two of the most important words in a GM's Office.

Like I said, the kid was homegrown and a champion. You don't trade those players for "what if's and "what they might be".

AB is in purgatory, result not the Player he should be. I would expect if he were still in Boston his stats would be much better.

 

Like I said Orlando is a bargain basement shopper. Some players work out some don't. When you have a proven player at a position such as LF in Fenway you squeeze every at bat out of that player and give that player as much time as needed to produce.

[moonslav59]

What Salary Relief?

 

We paid $2.8M towards Beni and did not pay the $6.6M he was owed in 2021 or the full $5M towards the tax line did not count against us.

 

Henry saved $3.8M by trading him, and we saved about $2.2M on the tax line, which would have put us over, this year and set the clock to year 2 in 2022 and year 3 in 2023, assuming we go over those years, too.

[Maxbialystock]

I would agree that certain pitchers may prefer to throw to certain catchers.

 

That doesn't leave much to argue about. CERA may not be relevant, but the mindset of pitchers is crucial and it can vary not only from catcher to catcher, but also from inning to inning.

[mvp 78]

Patience and upside two of the most important words in a GM's Office.

Like I said, the kid was homegrown and a champion. You don't trade those players for "what if's and "what they might be".

AB is in purgatory, result not the Player he should be. I would expect if he were still in Boston his stats would be much better.

 

Like I said Orlando is a bargain basement shopper. Some players work out some don't. When you have a proven player at a position such as LF in Fenway you squeeze every at bat out of that player and give that player as much time as needed to produce.

 

It's funny, because at the time of the trade, everyone was saying Beni going to KC was a better fit and he'd succeed there. It was supposed to be a better cultural fit for a guy from SE Ohio.

[moonslav59]

That doesn't leave much to argue about. CERA may not be relevant, but the mindset of pitchers is crucial and it can vary not only from catcher to catcher, but also from inning to inning.

 

There is a ton of anecdotal evidence that points to many pitchers preferring one catcher over another.