A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Nick]

I'm pretty happy they didn't trade Dalbec.

 

Bloom won't give up on him. He still has too much upside.

[Nick]

Moon, your thoughts on what it would take to sign Schwarber.

 

Would 6 years, $90M do it? Would Bloom give out a 6 year deal?

 

Is he worth the money we gave JD?

[mvp 78]

Bloom won't give up on him. He still has too much upside.

 

And low trade value.

[mvp 78]

We are fortunate at this point to have

 

Signed Schwarber

Dalbec getting hot

Arroyo back healthy

Verdugo beginning to warm up

 

We now have depth so that we can plug in Schwarber as DH to rest JD for example. Tonight I believe Dalbec will move to 3B, Schwarber to 1B and Devers to DH.

Arroyo is at 2B, Kike back in CF as Xander returns.

 

Offensively we should be set to compete next 34 games. We need JD to warm up.

 

Verdugo has a 951 OPS, 159 WRC+ since his baby was born. Using that dad strength.

[Bellhorn04]

Moon, your thoughts on what it would take to sign Schwarber.

 

Would 6 years, $90M do it? Would Bloom give out a 6 year deal?

 

Is he worth the money we gave JD?

 

Maybe 5/65?

 

Not JD money, because he doesn't have the career numbers behind him like JD did.

[Bellhorn04]

And low trade value.

 

Bobby Basher.

[moonslav59]

No, because with Arroyo out Kike was at 2nd, who else was going to play 2nd? Schwarber was in LF because Duran was struggling bad and they were riding the hot hand at 1B with Dalbec. I'll reiterate a point I've made multiple times because I think we generally agree here. I think we could and perhaps should see Schwarber at 1B at some point.......it's just that up until this point it hasn't really made sense to put him there.

 

Okay. I thought you were talking about when Arroyo is healthy.

[Bellhorn04]

moon, your 2 Realistic threads are hopelessly overlapping now LOL

[moonslav59]

Moon, your thoughts on what it would take to sign Schwarber.

 

Would 6 years, $90M do it? Would Bloom give out a 6 year deal?

 

Is he worth the money we gave JD?

 

I'm not sure he gets 6 years. He's only had more than 510 PAs once in his career (2019). He hit .701 in the short 2020 season, and was at .849 from 2018-2019, a very good number but not top notch.

 

He's also .849 from 2018-2021.

 

He may try to take a 1 year deal to boost his value, but I'm thinking maybe he gets $70-75M/5. I'd probably go as high as $90M/6, but that's scary large and long.

[moonslav59]

Maybe 5/65?

 

Not JD money, because he doesn't have the career numbers behind him like JD did.

 

He's 28. JD was 30 when he signed, but yes, JD's numbers were way better.

 

.936 from 2014 to 2017 and .985 fro '16 to '17.

[moonslav59]

moon, your 2 Realistic threads are hopelessly overlapping now LOL

 

I shouldn't have started the 2022 thread.

[Bellhorn04]

I shouldn't have started the 2022 thread.

 

It's OK. People have made much worse mistakes.

[mvp 78]

Bobby Basher.

 

I like him. I don't like his K/BB rate this year. I'm just REALISTIC about his trade value. His value is higher than Chavis, but on 7/31 it was pretty darn low.

 

I thought he'd hit 40 HR's this year and have 200 K's.

[Bellhorn04]

I like him. I don't like his K/BB rate this year. I'm just REALISTIC about his trade value. His value is higher than Chavis, but on 7/31 it was pretty darn low.

 

I thought he'd hit 40 HR's this year and have 200 K's.

 

His career 162 game avgs as we speak:

 

783 OPS

30 HR

95 RBI

 

No idea whether Bloom sees him as a keeper or a trade chip.

[moonslav59]

Even for a 1Bman, a .783 career OPS and 24 HRs in his first 444 PAs, is very promising. (46 XBHs)

 

I expected an OBP higher than .302, and there is still time for him to improve on that.

 

His power is natural.

[moonslav59]

His career 162 game avgs as we speak:

 

783 OPS

30 HR

95 RBI

 

No idea whether Bloom sees him as a keeper or a trade chip.

 

The 162 game sample given on B-R is based on 562 PAs. If you project it to 680 PAs, he's at 36 HRs and 114 RBI.

 

650 might be about 35 110.

[Maxbialystock]

Dalbec's OPS is now .740, but his most surprising stat is that he lacks at bats compared to the other regulars but is nevertheless 5th in rbi's with 59. Vazquez has 39 rbi's with 374 at bats to Dalbec's 327. Verdugo has 439 at bats and 49 rbi's. Bogaerts has 441 at bats and 69 rbi's, so Dalbec actually drives in more runs per at bat than Bogaerts, who also enjoys a better spot in the lineup.

[Hugh2]

Bloom won't give up on him. He still has too much upside.

 

I don't think his upside is as high as much as Bloom just likes his profile of a power bat. Dalbec is never going to be a high average, high obp guy. He's going to hit .225-.240, strike out a ton and maybe hit 30 HR's. That's fine if he can improve his D and walk more. But that's not a huge ceiling for a 1B profile.

[MADSTORK]

Moon, your thoughts on what it would take to sign Schwarber.

 

Would 6 years, $90M do it? Would Bloom give out a 6 year deal?

 

Is he worth the money we gave JD?

 

 

LOL

The Player hits one game tying HR and he's the second coming of Teddy Ball-game

 

The Player is a Sunday beer leaguer, career .230 hitter with no position. Smell the coffee!

 

15 million a year, hahahahaha

[notin]

LOL

The Player hits one game tying HR and he's the second coming of Teddy Ball-game

 

The Player is a Sunday beer leaguer, career .230 hitter with no position. Smell the coffee!

 

15 million a year, hahahahaha

 

He did get $10mill after being non-tendered…

[Maxbialystock]

I shouldn't have started the 2022 thread.

 

I thought it was the perfect time because on 1 August this team was set in terms of deals. So why not starting looking ahead of a team that is clearly in transition? Plus I frankly don't see an excessive amount of overlap in comments.

 

The 2022 thread talks a lot about offseason deals, and this thread is still focused on this year with sidebars on what might happen next--like the discussion on Schwarber. Right now, we're seeing what he can do for this team and then wondering what it would take to keep him. For at least 5 days I've been convinced Schwarber is our once and future firstbaseman, but suddenly Dalbec, who's 2 years younger, ain't look too shabby despite his glove work, so maybe Schwarber goes to DH. Thus I like the discussion about what Schwarber is worth vs. JDM, etc.

[Hugh2]

Okay. I thought you were talking about when Arroyo is healthy.

 

No, but maybe? Arroyo is playing good this year, but he has a lower career OPS than Dalbec. I like Arroyo and hope he's blooming into a better player but he could be riding a high, and he's never been a full-time player so who knows. Bobby could turn back into a pumpkin as he has before but so could arroyo. If that happens, you stick Kike back at 2nd and Schwarber into LF.

[Bellhorn04]

He did get $10mill after being non-tendered…

 

Which is exactly $10 mill more than STORK's opinions are worth.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I thought it was the perfect time because on 1 August this team was set in terms of deals. So why not starting looking ahead of a team that is clearly in transition? Plus I frankly don't see an excessive amount of overlap in comments.

 

The 2022 thread talks a lot about offseason deals, and this thread is still focused on this year with sidebars on what might happen next--like the discussion on Schwarber. Right now, we're seeing what he can do for this team and then wondering what it would take to keep him. For at least 5 days I've been convinced Schwarber is our once and future firstbaseman, but suddenly Dalbec, who's 2 years younger, ain't look too shabby despite his glove work, so maybe Schwarber goes to DH. Thus I like the discussion about what Schwarber is worth vs. JDM, etc.

 

I've always thought Schwarber as a lefty DH was made for Yankee Stadium (he's got a Ruthian look to his HR trot). Depending on what happens the rest of this season -- and especially if Schwarber hurts the Yanks -- it wouldn't surprise if New York becomes a rival bidder for his services.

[Hugh2]

LOL

The Player hits one game tying HR and he's the second coming of Teddy Ball-game

 

The Player is a Sunday beer leaguer, career .230 hitter with no position. Smell the coffee!

 

15 million a year, hahahahaha

 

Ughhh What? LOL you'r seriously going to reference one stat line, AVERAGE? you could have at least rounded up to .240 instead of down to .230.

 

Schwarber is also a .813 life time OPS hitter behind only JDM .881 and Devers .834, and that puts him ahead of Bogaerts, Verdugo, and well.....everyone else.

 

Unless of course you want to say AVG > SLG/OBP. Which would just be bonkers.

[Hugh2]

ADD, I love how Schwarber somehow doesn't have a position because he's played a few games at RF/C. He's started over 90% of his games in LF, he's a left fielder.

[MADSTORK]

Maybe 5/65?

 

Not JD money, because he doesn't have the career numbers behind him like JD did.

 

 

Martinez Player option at 19 million. Your stuck with the Player at DH for one more season. He is your Schwarber.

Pedroia and AB Retained salary off the books. One ridiculous retained salary in Price left for 22 and your done.

 

Don't get caught handing out more terrible contracts.

 

That is why I have preached Re-building the Minor League System with new direction. So you don't have to take a chance on a bad free agent deal (after Year one or two of the deal) or trade because your minor league system cannot develop.

 

There are zero Free-Agent Hitters under age 30 next off season worth big money, zero. You have to develop and scan the trade market

[Nick]

I've followed Schwarber ever since his college days at IU. He caught and batted second, which I thought at the time was rather odd, catcher hitting second.

 

He has always been a hitter. I don't think that'll change.

[moonslav59]

No, but maybe? Arroyo is playing good this year, but he has a lower career OPS than Dalbec. I like Arroyo and hope he's blooming into a better player but he could be riding a high, and he's never been a full-time player so who knows. Bobby could turn back into a pumpkin as he has before but so could arroyo. If that happens, you stick Kike back at 2nd and Schwarber into LF.

 

OPS

 

Arroyo .777

Dalbec .740

 

Arroyo is a much better fielder, and moving Kike to CF improves our OF D and keeps JD out of the OF.

[Hugh2]

Martinez Player option at 19 million. Your stuck with the Player at DH for one more season. He is your Schwarber.

Pedroia and AB Retained salary off the books. One ridiculous retained salary in Price left for 22 and your done.

 

Don't get caught handing out more terrible contracts.

 

That is why I have preached Re-building the Minor League System with new direction. So you don't have to take a chance on a bad free agent deal (after Year one or two of the deal) or trade because your minor league system cannot develop.

 

There are zero Free-Agent Hitters under age 30 next off season worth big money, zero. You have to develop and scan the trade market

 

90 million isn't big money players are literally pushing FOUR times that amount, and we might be able to sign him for less than that. You're complaining about one poster's opinion. Even with a strong farm you still need to pay people. You can't run an all 25 under lineup you have to fill in the gaps.