A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Maxbialystock]

But many of us feared he was in decline after 2020 as well.

 

There was a poster on the other site, Spaceman Eephus, who used to refer to hitting and pitching as the 'dark arts' or words to that effect. I thought that was perfect, because it captured that what makes guys go on good streaks or bad ones is often a complete mystery. No one knows how JD will do the rest of the way.

 

What other site?

[Bellhorn04]

What other site?

 

The Globe site.

[moonslav59]

Well, you and Cora see eye to eye (or is it I to I?). Today it's Duran CF, Shwarber LF, JDM DH, Bogie SS, Devers 3b, Verdugo RF, Vazquez C, Shaw 1b, and Arauz 2B.

 

But I disagree with both of you. Quantrill has been so good this month it might not make any difference, but, knowing JDM is following Shwarber, he will be less likely to throw anything to Shwarber worth swinging at.

 

On the other hand, Bogie is also struggling--2 months in a row--and he is batting 4th.

 

So clearly Cora is going with the guys who have hit the best over the long haul. Duran, Shaw, and Arauz are exceptions because of the guys (Kike and Arroyo) who are unavailable, plus all three are lefty bats.

 

I think Bogey's wrist is still affecting him.

 

If anyone needs a few days off, it's him, but with Kike and Arroyo out, that can't happen, unless we put Munoz at 2B and Arauz at SS.

 

To me, it's about having faith in players that have proven themselves over and over.

 

All players go through slumps, some much worse than others- some much longer than others.

 

You give the struggling player a day off, and then put him right back out there.

 

As much as we want to believe in momentum and trends, good players do not repeat what they have done the last week or two, or even month or two. They eventually "regress to the mean." Not always, of course, but I'm not seeing why we should view these two slumps any differently, except for maybe Bogey's wrist issue, assuming it's still bothering him.

 

Munoz, Shaw, Arauz and others might seem like higher reward options, because they are "hot" (Dalbec, too), but I'm going with the proven vets.

 

No 9 game sample size is going to convince me JD needs to be benched, and then on top of that, with Renfroe, Kike and Arroyo out, benched for who?

 

One could make an argument to play Dalbec vs LHPs or Arroyo vs RHPs over a slumping JD, but not for Munoz, Arauz, Plawecki or Shaw.

[moonslav59]

JD still has an .803 OPS from 2020-2021.

 

While that's a far cry from the .985 from .2018-2019, it's still respectable.

 

I won't say I'm not concerned about further decline, but I would not be surprised, if he puts up.900 again, before his career is over.

[oldtimer]

That's exactly what I pointed out on another post.

 

Until the last 9 games, JD had been one of our most consistent hitters- not the .950 to 1.000 guys we all wanted, but remarkably near .800 the whole time.

 

Now, because of a super horrid 9 game stretch of stench, people want us to believe this has been a 3-4 month "slump."

 

I'll take an .800 slump for 3 months followed by a 9 game super slump all day long. Sure, I hoped for better from JD, and I still do, but people are equating his steady decline in OPS as being a long slump. When you start out at over 1.175, even hitting .950 for 3 months will show a steady decline in your OPS.

 

Cherry-picking sample sizes can be very misleading, too.

 

Here's one, that to me, is not misleading but very telling. After reaching 1.189 on May 1st, JD hit:

 

.819 in 84 games (up to this bad 9 game slump). That is very decent.

 

The 9 game slump is so bad, it can warp any recent sample size you choose into looking like his slump is much longer than 9 games.

 

.305 OPS in last 9 games.

 

Although he had a 1.394 OPS in the previous 6 games (with 11 RBI), that 9 game slump turn the last 15 day total to .753. The 9 game slump can now look like a 15 day slump, despite the fact that JD went nutty in those 6 previous games!

 

Now, he did have another, longer 15 game slump before these last 15 games:

.411 in 62 PAs, so I can see how someone can take the last 30 games and call it a prolonged slump. It's totally fair.

 

.582 in last 30 games, with the bulk of the good coming in just a 6 game stretch within those 30 games. Of course that is concerning, if not frightening. But let's mix around the sample size choices.

 

Let's look at the prior 21 games before this past 9 (the good 6 with the bad 15). Now, it's just .698- not as rotten as .582.

 

Let's just go back two more games to make the sample 23:

 

.837!!! Yes, 2 games makes it jump from .698 to .837.

 

Let's now add the last 9 games to those 23 to make it a 32 game sample not 30, and the OPS goes from .582 to .691. While .691 is not great, it's also not a horrid slump, except for maybe hitters like JD.

 

Let's keep adding game to the front end:

 

.758 in his last 39 games.

 

.805 in his last 48 games

 

.801 in last 55.

 

.780 in last 68 and .782 in last 77.

 

.801 in his last 95

 

.859 on the season

 

 

 

As Reagan would have said. There you go again. You love using OPS. Please look at the game by game logs. Very little from July 22 to the end of July and very spotty in August.

[dgalehouse]

It's looking more and more like we are headed to a one game play in at Yankee Stadium on Oct. 5. Winner goes to the playoffs , loser goes home. Risky business for both the Sox and Yankees , but that's how it looks right now.

[Maxbialystock]

As Reagan would have said. There you go again. You love using OPS. Please look at the game by game logs. Very little from July 22 to the end of July and very spotty in August.

 

OPS and OPS+ are considered to be pretty good markers for a hitter's overall performance.

 

Looking at game logs, without citing specifics, on the other hand, is just flaky. For example, I choose August 8, less than 3 weeks ago, when JDM went 4 for 5, including 2 doubles and 2 rbi's, in a 9-8 loss to the Jays. Or how about 4 for 4 against the best AL pitching staff, the Rays, on August 11?

 

The monthly OPS's on the other hand, do show a fall off from April, but the fall off suggests he is roughly an .800 OPS hitter. Am I worried about JDM? Yes. When Shwarber gets walked 4 times in front of JDM, I get nervous.

 

On the other hand, Cora makes the tough decisions with tons more insight than you or I have, and for now he's sticking with JDM--in a tough race for the playoffs with just 30 days to go.

 

You absolutely are entitled to your opinion and every opportunity to express it, but that don't make you right. Right now, I think you are, if not out to lunch, at least outnumbered. I got moonslav and Cora. Who you got?

Edited August 28, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[Maxbialystock]

It's looking more and more like we are headed to a one game play in at Yankee Stadium on Oct. 5. Winner goes to the playoffs , loser goes home. Risky business for both the Sox and Yankees , but that's how it looks right now.

 

It absolutely does look that way. I think we can stay ahead of the A's and hope we can make up the 3 games we are behind the Yankees, but those Rays are just too consistent and keep building that 7 game lead.

[dgalehouse]

Much of the debate on here about Bloom or Cora or any of the various players that are mentioned is really about posters wanting to say, " See, I was right and you were wrong." And that's okay. It's just human nature. Nothing wrong with it. Carry on.

[moonslav59]

As Reagan would have said. There you go again. You love using OPS. Please look at the game by game logs. Very little from July 22 to the end of July and very spotty in August.

 

I got my numbers by looking at the game by game logs, same as you.

 

I just selected different dates to make JD look better, while you picked the worst date for a longer term sample.

 

Yes, from July 22, his numbers look bad, but why that date?

 

Why does that date tell a more meaningful story than a few days earlier or later, or a few weeks before or after?

[moonslav59]

Much of the debate on here about Bloom or Cora or any of the various players that are mentioned is really about posters wanting to say, " See, I was right and you were wrong." And that's okay. It's just human nature. Nothing wrong with it. Carry on.

 

You are right.

 

I was wrong.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It's looking more and more like we are headed to a one game play in at Yankee Stadium on Oct. 5. Winner goes to the playoffs , loser goes home. Risky business for both the Sox and Yankees , but that's how it looks right now.

 

The Yankees finish the regular season with 3 games against the Rays. The Yankees could still win the division, but will most likely be in the wild card game and, yes, probably against the Red Sox. The Red Sox will need a little distance from the A's so that the Red Sox can set up their rotation with a rested Sale starting the wild card game and he should be relieved by a rested G.Whitlock.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I would release M.Perez and promote K.Ort. Ort is walking too many hitters in AAA, but he is also getting a lot of strikeouts. Meanwhile, Perez is useless, and maybe Ort can get on a roll and contribute to the bullpen.

[oldtimer]

OPS and OPS+ are considered to be pretty good markers for a hitter's overall performance.

 

Looking at game logs, without citing specifics, on the other hand, is just flaky. For example, I choose August 8, less than 3 weeks ago, when JDM went 4 for 5, including 2 doubles and 2 rbi's, in a 9-8 loss to the Jays. Or how about 4 for 4 against the best AL pitching staff, the Rays, on August 11?

 

The monthly OPS's on the other hand, do show a fall off from April, but the fall off suggests he is roughly an .800 OPS hitter. Am I worried about JDM? Yes. When Shwarber gets walked 4 times in front of JDM, I get nervous.

 

On the other hand, Cora makes the tough decisions with tons more insight than you or I have, and for now he's sticking with JDM--in a tough race for the playoffs with just 30 days to go.

 

You absolutely are entitled to your opinion and every opportunity to express it, but that don't make you right. Right now, I think you are, if not out to lunch, at least outnumbered. I got moonslav and Cora. Who you got?

 

And you are entitled to your opinion as well and neither does that make you right. Cora has direct access to the players and he can talk to them about what is bothering them and make appropriate decisions.Moonslav is a stat machine. I prefer to closely watch the game. Both have there strong points and weaknesses. I believe I also have Cora, so that is a shared value. Calling ideas flaky because you don't agree with them says something about you.

[oldtimer]

I got my numbers by looking at the game by game logs, same as you.

 

I just selected different dates to make JD look better, while you picked the worst date for a longer term sample.

 

Yes, from July 22, his numbers look bad, but why that date?

 

Why does that date tell a more meaningful story than a few days earlier or later, or a few weeks before or after?

 

Because that coincided with the period of the AS break on. If you remember my contention, I said that both he and to a degree Bogey had significant performance declines from that point onward. Surely I would not choose dates before that time, since I didn't indicate his performance was in decline before that time. My recommendation was for Cora to talk to both players and find out what if any problems existed and try to work out a path forward where they could help this team as we are in a pennant race.

[Larry Cook]

I would release M.Perez and promote K.Ort. Ort is walking too many hitters in AAA, but he is also getting a lot of strikeouts. Meanwhile, Perez is useless, and maybe Ort can get on a roll and contribute to the bullpen.

 

Ort had not looked great these last two months. But espinal is throwing the ball really well and as a reliever, he might be able to eat some innings.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Ort had not looked great these last two months. But espinal is throwing the ball really well and as a reliever, he might be able to eat some innings.

 

Or maybe Eduard Bazardo soon replaces Perez?

 

Bazardo (lat) began a rehab assignment in the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Aug. 13 and has struck out seven in three scoreless innings across two appearances.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/injuries/_/name/bos

[Maxbialystock]

I think Bogey's wrist is still affecting him.

 

If anyone needs a few days off, it's him, but with Kike and Arroyo out, that can't happen, unless we put Munoz at 2B and Arauz at SS.

 

To me, it's about having faith in players that have proven themselves over and over.

 

All players go through slumps, some much worse than others- some much longer than others.

 

You give the struggling player a day off, and then put him right back out there.

 

As much as we want to believe in momentum and trends, good players do not repeat what they have done the last week or two, or even month or two. They eventually "regress to the mean." Not always, of course, but I'm not seeing why we should view these two slumps any differently, except for maybe Bogey's wrist issue, assuming it's still bothering him.

 

Munoz, Shaw, Arauz and others might seem like higher reward options, because they are "hot" (Dalbec, too), but I'm going with the proven vets.

 

No 9 game sample size is going to convince me JD needs to be benched, and then on top of that, with Renfroe, Kike and Arroyo out, benched for who?

 

One could make an argument to play Dalbec vs LHPs or Arroyo vs RHPs over a slumping JD, but not for Munoz, Arauz, Plawecki or Shaw.

 

Words to conjure with.

 

moonslav the magician has pulled still another rabbit--JDM 3 for 5 today with a game-winning 3 run dinger to the opposite field--out of his hat.

[moonslav59]

Words to conjure with.

 

moonslav the magician has pulled still another rabbit--JDM 3 for 5 today with a game-winning 3 run dinger to the opposite field--out of his hat.

 

I’m not taking credit for a decision every manager on the planet would have made.

 

Not agreeing with the idea of benching JD over a 9 game slump is not rocket science.

[notin]

I’m not taking credit for a decision every manager on the planet would have made.

 

Not agreeing with the idea of benching JD over a 9 game slump is not rocket science.

 

 

Yes. The amount of baseball acumen that goes into deciding to start JD Martinez over, say, Kevin Plawecki is not exactly the stuff of the elite…

[Maxbialystock]

Yes. The amount of baseball acumen that goes into deciding to start JD Martinez over, say, Kevin Plawecki is not exactly the stuff of the elite…

 

A fair point. With Renfroe out and Kike both out, Cora has to send JDM or Schwarber to the OF and the other to DH. This also explains why last night's lineup was downright weird.

 

Nevertheless, there were plenty of us--unthinking as we no doubt were--who would have been happy with another day of "rest" for JDM.

[jad]

]I’m not taking credit for a decision every manager on the planet would have made.

[/b]

Not agreeing with the idea of benching JD over a 9 game slump is not rocket science

 

Haven't been following this discussion: could you (or anyone) diagram or at least construe that last sentence.

[Bellhorn04]

Haven't been following this discussion: could you (or anyone) diagram or at least construe that last sentence.

 

JD had a 9 game slump and some of the Talksox intelligentsia thought he should be benched for multiple games as a result.

 

Some of us, including moon and myself, disagreed.

[notin]

Haven't been following this discussion: could you (or anyone) diagram or at least construe that last sentence.

 

The word “agreeing” is the subject in gerund form…

[jad]

The word “agreeing” is the subject in gerund form…

 

DAMN!! Cool!

 

I was thinking along the lines: "There is an argument out there that benching JD for a 9-game slump is a good idea. This idea is obvious; i.e., it's not rocket science. But [i personally am] not in agreement with this idea. i.e., I disagree with the notion that benching JD is an obvious move. i.e., it's so complicated I'm not sure what my position is."

 

But you're saying: "There is an idea that benching JD is a good idea. But that's a stupid idea. And not agreeing to it is thus obvious; i.e., it's not rocket science; i.e., play JD."

Edited August 29, 2021 by jad

[notin]

DAMN!! Cool!

 

I was thinking along the lines: "There is an argument out there that benching JD for a 9-game slump is a good idea. This idea is obvious; i.e., it's not rocket science. But [i personally am] not in agreement with this idea. i.e., I disagree with the notion that benching JD is an obvious move. i.e., it's so complicated I'm not sure what my position is."

 

But you're saying: "There is an idea that benching JD is a good idea. But that's a stupid idea. And not agreeing to it is thus obvious; i.e., it's not rocket science; i.e., play JD."

 

We’re I you’re English teacher, than your grade on that interpretation would have been passing…

[oldtimer]

I was interested in what JDM said about his day off. He said he normally takes hundreds of swings in preparation for play and studies for hours. Given the day off, he took no swings and only looked at the pitcher tapes at night in the hotel. While at the day off game he became a cheer leader. Maybe he found out what has been bothering him. I hope so. Take less preparatory swings and try to relax. Sounds plausible to me.

[notin]

And Arroyo has COVID.

 

Rough year for the guy just missing time for every conceivable reason. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up being out next month because he’s pregnant…

[MADSTORK]

I already said sit him one game "maybe." What are you asking?

 

No way JD sits 3 games, unless he's hurt. No way, and no way any manager does that to a vet with his pedigree.

 

Here are just 2 quick examples I found from this year.

 

Renfroe, a lesser player than JD at the time, had played nearly every game from April 13 to April 30th. He was never given more than 1 game off, despite seeing his OPS fall to .485 at the end of April. Did Cora bench him over a worse streak that JD's current one? Hell, no. He played him the next game and every one after for more than 2 weeks. Good thing he did. He had a .942 OPS the next 13 games.

 

Devers has a higher stature than Hunter, so maybe he's a better comp than Renfore. Devers started the year with a .296 OPS after 5 games and wasn't benched, thank God! He hit 5 HRs in his next 4 games. Later, he had a 6 game slump of .392 (OPS). He went 2 for 4 the next game, then got one day off. That's it.

 

As streaky and slumpy as Dalbec has been, I only found one time he was given 3 games off, and that was after he had just gone 4 for 7 with an HR in his previous 2 games.

 

It just does not happen, and for good reason.

 

Knee jerk managing is losing managing.

 

Amen!

[moonslav59]

Haven't been following this discussion: could you (or anyone) diagram or at least construe that last sentence.

 

I didn't agree with the idea of benching JD 3 games over a 9 game slump.

 

Someone complimented me on that position, and I was trying to say taking that position was not hard to do "(rocket science"); it's the position every manager in MLB would make.

 

I don't deserve credit for stating the obvious.