A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

When is the last day we gained a full game on the Yanks? I know it was at least 2 weeks ago. Nobody is gaining on the Rays (also 9-1 in their last 10!)

 

Here is the updated AL Standings, and we are tied with the CWS for the 4th best record in the league.

 

81-48 TBR

77-52 HOU -4.0 best record

76-53 NYY -5.0 ALE

75-56 BOS -7.0 ALE/ -2.0 WC1

75-56 CWS ALC leader

 

71-59 OAK -3.5 WC2

69-61 SEA -5.5 WC2

67-61 TOR -6.5 WC2

 

Today's Games:

 

BOS (Houck) @ CLE (Morgan)

 

TBR (Archer) @ BAL (Watkins)

 

NYY (Montgomery) @ OAK (Blackburn)

[moonslav59]

And Arroyo has COVID.

 

Rough year for the guy just missing time for every conceivable reason. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up being out next month because he’s pregnant…

 

How do we view his role in 2022?

 

Is this all a fluke?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I didn't agree with the idea of benching JD 3 games over a 9 game slump.

 

Someone complimented me on that position, and I was trying to say taking that position was not hard to do "(rocket science"); it's the position every manager in MLB would make.

 

I don't deserve credit for stating the obvious.

 

If both Kike and Renfroe had been available, are you 100% positive that JD would have only been benched for 1 game?

[moonslav59]

Team Win % in Starts by...

 

1.000 Sale (n/a '20)

 

.640 ERod 16-9 (n/a '20)

 

.600 Pivetta (1.000 in '20)

 

.545 Perez (.250 in '20)

 

.538 Eovaldi (.667 in '20)

 

.500 Houck(1.000 in '20) & Richards (n/a '20)

 

2019 (7+ GS)

.765 ERod

.625 Velazquez

.583 Eovaldi

.563 Porcello

.455 Price

.429 Johnson

 

2018

.826 ERod

.750 Wright (4 starts)

.733 Price

.692 Johnson

.667 Porcello

.667 Sale

.625 Velazquez

.455 Eovaldi

.455 Pomeranz

.400 Sale

 

The team with ERod, since 2018:

 

61-21

 

.744 Winning %!

 

16-9, n/a, 26-8 and 19-4

[moonslav59]

If both Kike and Renfroe had been available, are you 100% positive that JD would have only been benched for 1 game?

 

No, of course not, but 3 games, yes, I'm 100% sure. No manager sits a guy like JD 3 games, unless they're hurt. As I showed, he hasn't even sat Dalbec 3 games but one time, and that was after he had done well in his previous 2 games. It just does not happen to studs like JD. Yes, the Dalbecs, Marwins, Santanas and other mere mortals, but not JD.

 

With Cora being the all-loyalty guy, it was 100%.

 

Plus, iortiz made the 3 days off claim after knowing those guys were all out (including Arroyo).

 

Not that it matters, but right before JD's 9 game very bad slump, he hit 1.394 in his previous 6 games.

 

1.103 in his previous 9 games.

.877 in his previous 29 games

 

Managers rarely make knee-jerk reactions concerning their best players, and especially after just a 9 game slump.

Edited August 29, 2021 by moonslav59

[Fan_since_Boggs]

When is the last day we gained a full game on the Yanks? I know it was at least 2 weeks ago. Nobody is gaining on the Rays (also 9-1 in their last 10!)

I'm rooting for the Rays to win at this point. I don't believe the Red Sox can catch them and I don't want the Yankees to catch them. I want the Red Sox to play the Yankees in that that one game wild card playoff, that'll be fun. I like the Red Sox's chances: Sale v. Sticky Stuff Cole. Oh baby, the Yankees are in trouble!

Edited August 29, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

I'm rooting for the Rays to win at this point. I don't believe the Red Sox can catch them and I don't want the Yankees to catch them. I want that one wild card game playoff with the Yankees, that'll be fun. I like the Red Sox's chances: Sale v. Sticky Stuff Cole. Oh baby, the Yankees are in trouble!

 

I don't disagree, but if the Yanks pass the Rays, because the Rays imploded (not likely), then maybe I'd want to face the Rays in the WC game.

[moonslav59]

Wanna know something quite amazing about our 40 man roster?

 

Only 6 players were drafted by the Sox. (Vaz, Barnes, Dalbec, Houck, Groome, Duran)

 

5 are IFAs (Bogey, Devers, DHern, Bazardo, Mata)

 

17 by trade

 

7 Free Agents (JD, Perez, Plawecki, Renfroe, Kike, Richards, Sawamura)

 

3 Minor League FA additions (Brasier, Santana, Munoz)

 

3 Waivers (Arroyo, Valdez, Shaw)

 

2 Rule 5 (Whitlock & Arauz)

[a700hitter]

Wanna know something quite amazing about our 40 man roster?

 

Only 6 players were drafted by the Sox. (Vaz, Barnes, Dalbec, Houck, Groome, Duran)

 

5 are IFAs (Bogey, Devers, DHern, Bazardo, Mata)

 

17 by trade

 

7 Free Agents (JD, Perez, Plawecki, Renfroe, Kike, Richards, Sawamura)

 

3 Minor League FA additions (Brasier, Santana, Munoz)

 

3 Waivers (Arroyo, Valdez, Shaw)

 

2 Rule 5 (Whitlock & Arauz)

That really doesn’t surprise me.

[MADSTORK]

Wanna know something quite amazing about our 40 man roster?

 

Only 6 players were drafted by the Sox. (Vaz, Barnes, Dalbec, Houck, Groome, Duran)

 

5 are IFAs (Bogey, Devers, DHern, Bazardo, Mata)

 

17 by trade

 

7 Free Agents (JD, Perez, Plawecki, Renfroe, Kike, Richards, Sawamura)

 

3 Minor League FA additions (Brasier, Santana, Munoz)

 

3 Waivers (Arroyo, Valdez, Shaw)

 

2 Rule 5 (Whitlock & Arauz)

 

 

Perfect example WHY the Minor League Development system needs a house cleaning

[moonslav59]

That really doesn’t surprise me.

 

I wonder who nearly emptied the farm.

[moonslav59]

Perfect example WHY the Minor League Development system needs a house cleaning

 

We won't be losing any of the 6 to free agency, this winter, and we may add 5-6 Rule 5 players to the 40 man roster- effectively doubling the amount in just a few short days.

 

If you add the 5 IFAs, which is one way to obtain home grown talent, we might have 16-17 homegrown players on next year's opening day 40 man roster.

 

We have also added some prospects by trade. Although they are not "homegrown," they are still prospects, or were not too long ago.

 

That's not making excuses for the failures of farm-building and the trading away of several prospects that would likely be on our 40 man roster, today.

 

We do need further change, but to me, the change has already begun.

[Nick]

I wonder who nearly emptied the farm.

 

You can't on one hand trash DD, and that's what you're doing, although you're okay with us winning the World series in 2018 and winning historical 3 straight division titles without DISCLOSING HOW WE GOT 17 PLAYERS VIA TRADE. Did we give up Topps player cards for them?

 

I love how we elevate every player's worth once they play for another organization. Obviously we gave away tons of All-Star talent. I just don't see them when the annual classic comes around in July.

 

Come on Moon. You can't keep playing both sides of fence when it comes to DD.

 

He did exactly what was asked of him. Henry then decided to go into a different direction.

 

No f***ing amount of discourse here can ever take that one title away from DD's tenure at Fenway.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

You can't on hand trash DD, and that's what you're doing, although you're okay with us winning the World series in 2018 and winning historical 3 straight division titles without DISCLOSING HOW WE GO 17 PLAYERS VIA TRADE. Did we give up Topps player cards?

 

Come on Moon. You can't keep playing both sides of fence when it comes to DD.

 

I'm not playing both sides.

 

I have clearly stated I am fine with what DD did. I don't hold it against him, if he went a little too far to ensure that 2018 win. I'm glad we had DD as our GM.

 

That, however, does not mean I have to sugar coat what that team building effort did to our longer term outlook.

 

It's not, in any way, a contradiction.

 

I saw "the cliff" coming but accepted it was worth it.

 

I'm also glad we got rid of DD, when we did, and hired someone better suited to rebuilding the farm and team as quickly as possible.

 

I'm not fence sitting. It's the way it is, IMO.

[moonslav59]

Hey, we've now won 6 out of 8 and 9 out of the last 15.

 

We are heading into our last real tough part of our schedule before ending lightly.

 

After today....

 

4 @ TBR

3 v CLE

3 v TBR

3 @CWS

3 @ SEA

 

Then, we finish with...

3 v BAL

2 v NYM

3 v NYY

3 @ BAL

3 @ WSH

 

The end is not all "light," but if we are going to make the playoffs, we'll have to do well those last 14 games.

 

These next 17 games could make or break us.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have a losing record against just 3 teams:

 

2-5 HOU

5-7 TBR

3-4 TEX

 

We are .500 with 6 teams: CWS, DET, LAA,OAK, PHI, SEA

 

Our best records:

3-0 MIA

2-0 CLE

2-0 NYM

3-1 ATL

5-2 KCR

5-2 MIN

10-6 NYY

10-9 TOR (no more games with Jays)

9-4 BAL

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not playing both sides.

 

I have clearly stated I am fine with what DD did. I don't hold it against him, if he went a little too far to ensure that 2018 win. I'm glad we had DD as our GM.

 

That, however, does not mean I have to sugar coat what that team building effort did to our longer term outlook.

 

It's not, in any way, a contradiction.

 

I saw "the cliff" coming but accepted it was worth it.

 

The only question is whether there was really a 'cliff', when the only truly bad season was 60 games long.

[moonslav59]

The only question is whether there was really a 'cliff', when the only truly bad season was 60 games long.

 

I did not say I was right about the cliff. I was just describing my feelings about DD when he was here and when he was let go.

 

I don't think it's fair to call 2019 as part of the "cliff" but some might.

 

I do think the expectations going into this year and the decision not tp spend over the tax line we a result of "the cliff." (I also thought the cliff would start around 2021, so I was wrong about that, too.

 

We certainly bounced back much quicker than I expected, so the term "cliff" does ring rather hollow, but we did feel some of the effects in 2019 and 2021. Just because 2020 was shortened doesn't change the fact that we sucked.

 

The main point I kept saying over and over was that the system had changed making it harder for winning and high-spending teams to rebuild their farms while winning at the same time. A few things happened:

 

1) DD drafted better than I expected with such low picks, and I often gave him credit for that.

2) Bringing Bloom in to rebuild the farm was a stroke of genius.

3) Losing big in 2020 allowed two major things to happen:

A. We were able to trade players for prospects that we could not have done, if we kept winning.

B. We got a nice draft pick in 2021 and turned it into the best player in the draft by many accounts.

C. We also will have a decent comp pick, next draft for not signing Fabian.

4) Not going over the tax line in 2021 without causing major grief among the Sox faithful will likely set us up nicely for a return to glory much sooner than I expected.

5) Bloom stealing Whitlock from the Yanks was a major get. (Who expects Rule 5 picks to do this?)

 

I'm thrilled the "cliff" was so short, or if you please, never really happened.

 

It wouldn't be the first time I was wrong and won't be the last.

 

BTW, on DD's massive quantity of prospect trades, I was only against 2 of the deals: Kimbrel and Pomeranz, and I later admitted DD won those trades. (I was wrong, then, too, although Pom didn't really help us win a ring, and Kimbrel scared the beJesus out of us in the 2018 playoffs. They guys we gave up amounted to little more than squat.)

[Bellhorn04]

And I agree that Henry pulled the plug on DD at the right time, and I'm glad he was replaced by Bloom.

[moonslav59]

And I agree that Henry pulled the plug on DD at the right time, and I'm glad he was replaced by Bloom.

 

I'm also not going to forget that DD did pretty well with his drafts and was limited in IFAs due to penalties.

 

Draft 1

Groome at 12

Chatham at 51 (traded for promising Victor Santos)

Anderson at 88 (traded for Eduardo Nunez)

Dalbec at 118

Shawaryn at 148

Nogosek at 178 (traded for Addison Reed)

Espinal at 298

 

Draft 2

Houck at 24

K Crawford at 491

 

Draft 3

Casas at 26

Feltman at 100

K Cottam at 130

T Ward at 160

Granberg at 190

Howlett at 640

 

Draft 4

Cannon at 43

Lugo at 69

Song at 137

Murphy at 197

 

[Nick]

It's hard to get mad about today's game. It was comical. Pray for rain and 7 inning games because we can't stop the other teams in last two innings.

 

I'm glad to have Bloom but he missed on relievers. And all of us were so worried about locking up Barnes. He never fails to disappoint me.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to get mad about today's game. It was comical. Pray for rain and 7 inning games because we can't stop the other teams in last two innings.

 

I'm glad to have Bloom but he missed on relievers. And all of us were so worried about locking up Barnes. He never fails to disappoint me.

 

We suck in 7 inning games (3-6) and excel in extra innings (9-4).

[dgalehouse]

The bullpen is the thing in baseball today. Just about every close game comes down to a battle of the bullpens. It starts with the closer , but a good supporting cast is also vital. You cannot overstate the importance of a strong bullpen.

[oldtimer]

I did not say I was right about the cliff. I was just describing my feelings about DD when he was here and when he was let go.

 

I don't think it's fair to call 2019 as part of the "cliff" but some might.

 

I do think the expectations going into this year and the decision not tp spend over the tax line we a result of "the cliff." (I also thought the cliff would start around 2021, so I was wrong about that, too.

 

We certainly bounced back much quicker than I expected, so the term "cliff" does ring rather hollow, but we did feel some of the effects in 2019 and 2021. Just because 2020 was shortened doesn't change the fact that we sucked.

 

The main point I kept saying over and over was that the system had changed making it harder for winning and high-spending teams to rebuild their farms while winning at the same time. A few things happened:

 

1) DD drafted better than I expected with such low picks, and I often gave him credit for that.

2) Bringing Bloom in to rebuild the farm was a stroke of genius.

3) Losing big in 2020 allowed two major things to happen:

A. We were able to trade players for prospects that we could not have done, if we kept winning.

B. We got a nice draft pick in 2021 and turned it into the best player in the draft by many accounts.

C. We also will have a decent comp pick, next draft for not signing Fabian.

4) Not going over the tax line in 2021 without causing major grief among the Sox faithful will likely set us up nicely for a return to glory much sooner than I expected.

5) Bloom stealing Whitlock from the Yanks was a major get. (Who expects Rule 5 picks to do this?)

 

I'm thrilled the "cliff" was so short, or if you please, never really happened.

 

It wouldn't be the first time I was wrong and won't be the last.

 

BTW, on DD's massive quantity of prospect trades, I was only against 2 of the deals: Kimbrel and Pomeranz, and I later admitted DD won those trades. (I was wrong, then, too, although Pom didn't really help us win a ring, and Kimbrel scared the beJesus out of us in the 2018 playoffs. They guys we gave up amounted to little more than squat.)

 

Whether we called it a cliff or not, DD did leave us with a depleted prospect list. Our prospects were rated low compared to other franchises. In addition he left us with a number of questionable contracts that limited our ability to spend while still staying below the CBT. We still have 1/2 of Price on the docket into next year. Part of the reason for the Betts trade was to get out from some of the Price monetary commitment. I agree with your assessment of being able to spend for 2022. If we do we should be a stronger team. We appear to need a couple of starters, a high leverage BP arm and possibly a catcher and also a short term first baseman. Those will cost money and perhaps some of our prospect who don't figure in our plans for 2022 and on. I do hope we get Schwaber as he can be a perfect fit for us going forward.

[moonslav59]

Whether we called it a cliff or not, DD did leave us with a depleted prospect list. Our prospects were rated low compared to other franchises. In addition he left us with a number of questionable contracts that limited our ability to spend while still staying below the CBT. We still have 1/2 of Price on the docket into next year. Part of the reason for the Betts trade was to get out from some of the Price monetary commitment. I agree with your assessment of being able to spend for 2022. If we do we should be a stronger team. We appear to need a couple of starters, a high leverage BP arm and possibly a catcher and also a short term first baseman. Those will cost money and perhaps some of our prospect who don't figure in our plans for 2022 and on. I do hope we get Schwaber as he can be a perfect fit for us going forward.

 

While 2 solid starters and a top RP'er would be nice, don't be surprised if we add only 2 of those 3 slots and hope Whitlock, Houck and or Seabold can fill the other and add depth, as well.

[moonslav59]

The bullpen is the thing in baseball today. Just about every close game comes down to a battle of the bullpens. It starts with the closer , but a good supporting cast is also vital. You cannot overstate the importance of a strong bullpen.

 

It is the way of the league, now.

 

It used to be teams tried their hardest to work up pitch counts, so they could get to teams' pens early. Now, many teams have stronger pens than starters.

 

The thing is, our pen was our strength for about a 100 games. Now, we are at its mercy, every game.

[oldtimer]

It looks like Arauz might have injured himself today. With Arroyo and Kike out for a while we seem pretty thin in the 2nd base, SS positions. I know Munoz can fill in at 2nd as a non-optimum solution. Who could we bring up short term if we need another infielder.

 

Downs?

[moonslav59]

It looks like Arauz might have injured himself today. With Arroyo and Kike out for a while we seem pretty thin in the 2nd base, SS positions. I know Munoz can fill in at 2nd as a non-optimum solution. Who could we bring up short term if we need another infielder.

 

Downs?

 

I think we go with Munoz and Shaw at 2B and hold off adding Downs until Rule 5 day.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta, Sale, ERod, Eovaldi for the 4 games in Tampa.

 

Let's hope they can go deep. It might be our only hope.

[moonslav59]

You keep thinking and hoping our struggling players will eventually regress to their norm, but how long is this pen implosion going to continue?