A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In 1980, stolen bases were king.

 

In 1915, Ty Cobb stole 96 bases, a record that stood for 36 years. In 1980, three players stole at least 96 bases…

 

One big change since then, besides technical strategies like launch-angle swings, has been the actual playing surfaces. That era, circa 1980, was the peak of the artificial turf stadiums, where extremely fast outfielders were required to run down gappers that bounced like superballs all over the field. Such running speed was also weaponized on the bases, where rain or grounds crews with pregame hoses couldn't muddy the paths to slow down teams like the Go-Go White Sox or Dodgers back in the days of Luis Aparicio and Maury Wills.

[oldtimer]

I don’t think the “big and slow” aspect of the lineup is the problem and definitely don’t think Duran is the solution. The Sox were 56-36 with this lineup (with only Schwarber replacing Dalbec now) before Duran was even called up,..

 

We have Schwaber, Martinez and Shaw in the lineup who are the big and slow types. We have Kiki, Renfroe, Verdugo, Rafie and possibly Arroyo with decent speed and Bogie, Dalbec and the catchers with average speed. It's not all about base stealing. It's about the ability to take the extra base on an outfield hit and also scoring where our slow guys get thrown out. Cora talked about speed being important and I believe him.

[mvp 78]

In 1980, stolen bases were king.

 

In 1915, Ty Cobb stole 96 bases, a record that stood for 36 years. In 1980, three players stole at least 96 bases…

 

MLB has said they want to get back to exciting baseball with action on the bases and balls put in play. In 2021, they definitely didn't fix that. Should they go back to 1980? IDK. I do have a fondness for that style of game as that was part of what I grew up with. Aside from the base slogging Red Sox, I loved following Ozzie Smith, Tim Raines and Tony Gwynn. Those mid 80's Cardinals teams were just great to watch (Pendleton, Smith, McGee, Coleman). I don't believe they should go back to putting carpet over blacktop and call it a ballfield, but those games were a lot more interesting that the product we have now.

[mvp 78]

We have Schwaber, Martinez and Shaw in the lineup who are the big and slow types. We have Kiki, Renfroe, Verdugo, Rafie and possibly Arroyo with decent speed and Bogie, Dalbec and the catchers with average speed. It's not all about base stealing. It's about the ability to take the extra base on an outfield hit and also scoring where our slow guys get thrown out. Cora talked about speed being important and I believe him.

 

The fastest guys per Statcast:

Dalbec (one of the fastest 1b in the league)

Arroyo

Xander

Kiké

Devers

[Bellhorn04]

The fastest guys per Statcast:

Dalbec (one of the fastest 1b in the league)

 

Even since he stiffened up?

[moonslav59]

Even since he stiffened up?

 

Lol!

[mvp 78]

Even since he stiffened up?

 

Apparently.

[mvp 78]

Lol!

 

I rely on what the trained scouts say. I'm sure your eyes tell you something else.

[mvp 78]

Can you be a fast runner and not quick? Yes. They are two different things.

 

He can get to a faster speed than some other batters, but it takes him longer to do so.

 

For example:

 

Devers gets to 20' in 1.33 seconds. HP to first is 4.34.

 

Dalbec gets to 20' in 1.38 seconds. HP to first is 4.47.

 

Dalbec can run faster at his top speed, but it takes him longer to get there. Wonder why? Maybe he's less twitchy? Maybe he's less athletic?

[a700hitter]

Can you be a fast runner and not quick? Yes. They are two different things.

 

He can get to a faster speed than some other batters, but it takes him longer to do so.

 

For example:

 

Devers gets to 20' in 1.33 seconds. HP to first is 4.34.

 

Dalbec gets to 20' in 1.38 seconds. HP to first is 4.47.

 

Dalbec can run faster at his top speed, but it takes him longer to get there. Wonder why? Maybe he's less twitchy? Maybe he's less athletic?

Bernie Williams on the Yankees was like that. He didn’t have the quick acceleration to steal bases, but he went 1st to 3rd and 1st to home as well as anyone.

[notin]

Bernie Williams on the Yankees was like that. He didn’t have the quick acceleration to steal bases, but he went 1st to 3rd and 1st to home as well as anyone.

 

JBJ was like that, too. But we didn’t see it so much because he did not excel at getting on base…

[a700hitter]

JBJ was like that, too. But we didn’t see it so much because he did not excel at getting on base…

And they aren’t seeing it in Milwaukee either.

[mvp 78]

And they aren’t seeing it in Milwaukee either.

 

Get him at a deep discount this offseason!

[Kimmi]

Xander has a negative Clutch number on Fangraphs. Devers is barely above water.

 

Team Leaders in "Clutch" per FG:

Arroyo

Verdugo

Marwin

Dalbec

Vaz

 

Bottom Five

Renfroe

Kiké

Bogaerts

Plawecki

Santana

 

I know it's confirmation bias, but Devers again had a big hit last night with 2 outs after Bogaerts failed to come through.

 

Devers is clutch!

[Kimmi]

Boy does that look random. Look at Marwin!

 

I have no idea how they compute "Clutch" but it does seem to give some random results.

 

Exactly!

[mvp 78]

I know it's confirmation bias, but Devers again had a big hit last night with 2 outs after Bogaerts failed to come through.

 

Devers is clutch!

 

He's no Marwin Gonzalez.

[Kimmi]

The weird part about our worsening defense is that 2 areas seemed to have improved:

 

3B: Although Devers has looked shaky the last week or two, he was awful in April and has looked pretty good, overall from May to now.

 

CF: Playing Kike more in CF than we did earlier in the year and not playing Cordero, should have improved our overall OF defense. (Putting JD out there should not keep happening.)

 

It boggles my mind Dalbec has not improved even one tiny bit.

 

If Schwarber can handle first base on a regular basis, I think that will help our overall defensive alignment quite a bit. Also, we need Kike back in CF rather than at 2B. Arroyo should help with that.

[mvp 78]

If Schwarber can handle first base on a regular basis, I think that will help our overall defensive alignment quite a bit. Also, we need Kike back in CF rather than at 2B. Arroyo should help with that.

 

Yes.

[Maxbialystock]

If Schwarber can handle first base on a regular basis, I think that will help our overall defensive alignment quite a bit. Also, we need Kike back in CF rather than at 2B. Arroyo should help with that.

 

moonslav has repeatedly said Kike needs to be in CF. So Arroyo's return allows that, and, if Schwarber is only adequate at 1b, he will add another very good bat to the infield.

[oldtimer]

Now we need to get the middle of the order contributing offensively again.

[moonslav59]

If Schwarber can handle first base on a regular basis, I think that will help our overall defensive alignment quite a bit. Also, we need Kike back in CF rather than at 2B. Arroyo should help with that.

 

Even if Schwarber is the worst 1Bman in MLB, it’s just a slight drop off, if any, from what we currently have, and maybe a step up from what we’ve seen the past week.

 

The upgrades ar 2B and CF as well as keeping JD out of the OF is a plus on D.

 

Nobody can convince me Arroyo is a step down on offense vs Shaw/Dalbec, so what am I missing?

 

Shaw’s granny effectively benched Arroyo and worsened at least 2 positions defensively, so he might make lightening strike twice?

[oldtimer]

Pivetta didn't have it and Robles is not who we need at closer. that said, our BP pitched well but the middle of the order didn't do much or we would have won. In particular, JDM hasn't had an RBI since Aug 17 and is 2 for 20 over that period. We had our chances after the kiki double in the 9th, followed by the Schwaber homer tied it and Borey got a single and Devers a walk. We had two on and nobody out against a pitcher totally on the ropes. What followed was a Martinez fly out to move a runner to 3rd and then a poor example of situational hitting by Verdugo who swung hard at 3 successive cutters when we needed a BBIP and then a pop-out by Renfroe. So we lose another game we should have won. Maybe Arroyo should get to play while guys underperforming sit out.

[moonslav59]

That was an extra tough loss, last night. It's got my hopes wavering.

 

It's never about one game, to me, but after this long stretch of coming up short and finding ways to lose, the game last night was a knife-twisting defeat.

 

We've gone 20-25 in our last 45, and while that sample size is much smaller than the previous 83 game sample size, it's becoming harder and harder to think we can return to that early season form. You'd think adding Sale & Schwarber and more innings from Houck, the hopes for improvement would be getting stronger, but sadly, it has not, so far.

 

I'm not giving up, by any means. We are still on the inside track of making the playoffs, while other teams are peaking in August. Much can change in 6 weeks and 34 games.

 

We have to do much better vs weaker teams than we've shown, recently, as well as pull off some series wins vs the teams ahead of us to have any hope of passing someone. That hope may be fading fast, but making the playoffs would still be a a major accomplishment for this team after the expectations ost had, last spring, and especially after being swept by the O's in that opening series.

[Bellhorn04]

The team is still trying hard, at least.

[mvp 78]

Pivetta didn't have it and Robles is not who we need at closer. that said, our BP pitched well but the middle of the order didn't do much or we would have won. In particular, JDM hasn't had an RBI since Aug 17 and is 2 for 20 over that period. We had our chances after the kiki double in the 9th, followed by the Schwaber homer tied it and Borey got a single and Devers a walk. We had two on and nobody out against a pitcher totally on the ropes. What followed was a Martinez fly out to move a runner to 3rd and then a poor example of situational hitting by Verdugo who swung hard at 3 successive cutters when we needed a BBIP and then a pop-out by Renfroe. So we lose another game we should have won. Maybe Arroyo should get to play while guys underperforming sit out.

 

If it's the middle of the order that is struggling, I'm not sure how Arroyo fixes that. He won't be taking over for any of those middle of the order bats. Shaw has an XBH in the past 3 games. Is Arroyo going to do better than that? Arroyo wouldn't have made that lineup any better last night. Maybe his defense helps a bit more? IDK that he's that great of a defensive 2b. He's fine, but not Pedroia. Is he even better than Kiké. The real change is pusing Kiké to CF for defense, but then you have to sit one of JD, Verdugo or Schwarber. How does that help the offense?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pivetta didn't have it and Robles is not who we need at closer. that said, our BP pitched well but the middle of the order didn't do much or we would have won. In particular, JDM hasn't had an RBI since Aug 17 and is 2 for 20 over that period. We had our chances after the kiki double in the 9th, followed by the Schwaber homer tied it and Borey got a single and Devers a walk. We had two on and nobody out against a pitcher totally on the ropes. What followed was a Martinez fly out to move a runner to 3rd and then a poor example of situational hitting by Verdugo who swung hard at 3 successive cutters when we needed a BBIP and then a pop-out by Renfroe. So we lose another game we should have won. Maybe Arroyo should get to play while guys underperforming sit out.

 

Failing to make contact is unfortunately acceptable by most standards in modern MLB. What's unacceptable is batters not adjusting swings with two strikes in late and close game situations and men on base. That's on the organization, including the scouting staff for not recognizing it, the front office for not mandating fundamental philosophies, and the coaching staff for not instructing and enforcing it.

 

Call time out, remind the batter to choke up and cut down his swing, start the at-bat with a take sign or heaven help us, a safety squeeze -- whatever it takes to push across the winning run.

 

And show a little respect to the fans who invest money and time to watch and root for this club by benching or fining players who keep making mental mistakes (like not running hard on contact with two outs) that lose games in a playoff race.

 

Stop insulting us with: "We have to be better"... anyone still watching already knows that.

[mvp 78]

Failing to make contact is unfortunately acceptable by most standards in modern MLB. What's unacceptable is batters not adjusting swings with two strikes in late and close game situations and men on base. That's on the organization, including the scouting staff for not recognizing it, the front office for not mandating fundamental philosophies, and the coaching staff for not instructing and enforcing it.

 

Call time out, remind the batter to choke up and cut down his swing, start the at-bat with a take sign or heaven help us, a safety squeeze -- whatever it takes to push across the winning run.

 

And show a little respect to the fans who invest money and time to watch and root for this club by benching or fining players who keep making mental mistakes (like not running hard on contact with two outs) that lose games in a playoff race.

 

Stop insulting us with: "We have to be better"... anyone still watching already knows that.

 

There's only a handful of hitters that choke up with 2 strikes anymore. It's just a different game that it was 30 years ago.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo needed a fly ball- not a weak pop-up.

 

I don't have an issue with him swinging hard. It's not as easy as it might seem to just hit a deep fly ball.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There's only a handful of hitters that choke up with 2 strikes anymore. It's just a different game that it was 30 years ago.

 

This is one of the reasons the manager of the Olympic team says Casas will be a star for a long time. Hopefully, the Red Sox don't try to turn him into a typical all-or-nothing big leaguer.

[moonslav59]

This is one of the reasons the manager of the Olympic team says Casas will be a star for a long time. Hopefully, the Red Sox don't try to turn him into a typical all-or-nothing big leaguer.

 

I'm thinking, most of the times, the players turn themselves into that.

 

The team is not encouraging them.

 

Maybe their agent is.