A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

I'd send Davis down as Robles is out of options.

 

We don't need 14pitchers.

 

And rosters expand on Sept 1. Can just call Valdez back up then. Maybe Brasier will be ready then too?

[moonslav59]

It was an ugly game on many fronts. I can't argue that. Defense has gotten exponentially worse the second half of the season. I can't argue that either.

 

The weird part about our worsening defense is that 2 areas seemed to have improved:

 

3B: Although Devers has looked shaky the last week or two, he was awful in April and has looked pretty good, overall from May to now.

 

CF: Playing Kike more in CF than we did earlier in the year and not playing Cordero, should have improved our overall OF defense. (Putting JD out there should not keep happening.)

 

It boggles my mind Dalbec has not improved even one tiny bit.

[moonslav59]

Staying under the tax limit this year really has nothing to do with this year. It's about the next 2-3 years. IMO, that has to be the mindset of a GM.

 

Exactly, and with the CBA new rules coming, I think Henry decided to go into 2022 with a clean slate.

 

It makes sense to anyone not locked into a "MUST WIN NOW AT ANY COST" mentality.

[Maxbialystock]

The weird part about our worsening defense is that 2 areas seemed to have improved:

 

3B: Although Devers has looked shaky the last week or two, he was awful in April and has looked pretty good, overall from May to now.

 

CF: Playing Kike more in CF than we did earlier in the year and not playing Cordero, should have improved our overall OF defense. (Putting JD out there should not keep happening.)

 

It boggles my mind Dalbec has not improved even one tiny bit.

 

Alex Speier (Globe?) writes that Schwarber is likely to play 1b vs. the Twins.

 

If so, this might be the lineup--

 

Hernandez, CF (OPS .793)

Schwarber, 1B (1.065)

JDM, DH (.882)

Bogie, SS (.893)

Devers, 3B (.900)

Renfroe, RF (.800)

Arroyo, 2B (.787)

Verdugo, LF (.777)

Vazquez, C (.646)

 

No question that putting Schwarber at 1b incurs some risk, but on the other hand that's a good hitting lineup, a pretty decent defensive outfield, especially with Kike back in CF, and a pretty good defender at 2b. Devers is actually improving at 3b, and Bogaerts is what he is, steady but with limited range and reflexes. Arroyo pretty good at 2b. And Schwarber hopefully adequate at 1b, which so far this season has been a magnet for poor defensive play and so-so hitting even though Dalbec's OPS is now up to .707 (but still a far cry from Schwarber's 1.065). I think it definitely helps that Schwarber came up as a catcher.

[Maxbialystock]

This has been a roller coaster season and, because the Sox have been in contention since April, a fascinating study in adjustments made by Cora and Bloom--as well as the players. Starters Richards and Perez are now in the bullpen and just might contribute there--and have been replaced by Sale and Houck, both improvements.

 

Season to date, the starters have averaged 4 innings per start, so the bullpen has been crucial and reminds me of what a former manager once said: a manager is brilliant or awful depending on how good his bullpen is. This year Cora has been mostly brilliant because the bullpen was so great at holding the line long enough for the lineup to score runs, come from behind, etc.

 

But now the bullpen is suspect, and so are the hitters. See especially the recent sweep (5-3, 2-0, and 5-2) by the Yankees, the very team the Sox almost swept (5-4, 6-2, 3-4, and 5-4) less than a month ago. Lately, Toronto and Tampa Bay have also hammered the Sox.

 

Tonight starts 3 vs. the Twins followed by 3 at Cleveland and a chance to get some wins. This to me is an excellent time to try out Shwarber at 1b and Arroyo back again at 2b with the "good" outfield and JDM back at DH. The Sox with their new lineup should take 4 of 6, even with our scary bullpen.

 

But then comes that 4 game series at Tampa where the Rays love to murder our bullpen.

Edited August 24, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[mvp 78]

The weird part about our worsening defense is that 2 areas seemed to have improved:

 

3B: Although Devers has looked shaky the last week or two, he was awful in April and has looked pretty good, overall from May to now.

 

CF: Playing Kike more in CF than we did earlier in the year and not playing Cordero, should have improved our overall OF defense. (Putting JD out there should not keep happening.)

 

It boggles my mind Dalbec has not improved even one tiny bit.

 

And some people thought Dalbec would be fine at 3b.

[Maxbialystock]

It turned out that Hatteberg was a picking machine tho.

 

Of course. The producers and director get to decide what story to tell and what words to be said, and they are going to keep it simple for movie-goers. To their credit, they did parrot sabermetrics pretty well.

[moonslav59]

Alex Speier (Globe?) writes that Schwarber is likely to play 1b vs. the Twins.

 

If so, this might be the lineup--

 

Hernandez, CF (OPS .793)

Schwarber, 1B (1.065)

JDM, DH (.882)

Bogie, SS (.893)

Devers, 3B (.900)

Renfroe, RF (.800)

Arroyo, 2B (.787)

Verdugo, LF (.777)

Vazquez, C (.646)

 

No question that putting Schwarber at 1b incurs some risk, but on the other hand that's a good hitting lineup, a pretty decent defensive outfield, especially with Kike back in CF, and a pretty good defender at 2b. Devers is actually improving at 3b, and Bogaerts is what he is, steady but with limited range and reflexes. Arroyo pretty good at 2b. And Schwarber hopefully adequate at 1b, which so far this season has been a magnet for poor defensive play and so-so hitting even though Dalbec's OPS is now up to .707 (but still a far cry from Schwarber's 1.065). I think it definitely helps that Schwarber came up as a catcher.

 

That's the line-up I envisioned when we got Schwarber, and I think Bloom did, too.

 

The groin injury to Kyle not only delayed his joining the line-up, it further delayed his use at 1B- our highest need area.

 

Dalbec's brief hot streak masked the need for a bit, but clearly, this line-up is deadly.

 

While the defense at 1B looks scary, it already has been, and we improve at 2B and CF by playing Arroyo & Kike at their right positions.

 

This line-up is KILLER!

[moonslav59]

And some people thought Dalbec would be fine at 3b.

 

He seemed okay there in the minors, which normally translates to being able to do well at 1B over a certain learning curve time period that in no way should have lasted this long.

 

Could he still be better at 3B than 1B?

 

We'll never find out.

[Maxbialystock]

He seemed okay there in the minors, which normally translates to being able to do well at 1B over a certain learning curve time period that in no way should have lasted this long.

 

Could he still be better at 3B than 1B?

 

We'll never find out.

 

Agree. Devers does have those 18 errors, but no question he has improved at 3b and is better there than Bogie is at SS.

[moonslav59]

Agree. Devers does have those 18 errors, but no question he has improved at 3b and is better there than Bogie is at SS.

 

Agreed.

 

The annoying thing about those 18 errors are that half are throwing errors, that people keep saying can be improved upon more than range or the steadiness of glove work.

 

As The Smiths so aptly sang, "How Soon is Now?"

[mvp 78]

Of course. The producers and director get to decide what story to tell and what words to be said, and they are going to keep it simple for movie-goers. To their credit, they did parrot sabermetrics pretty well.

 

The picking machine part was straight out of the book. It's one of the more memorable moments that also include Beane breaking s*** in the clubhouse and drafting Jeremy Brown.

[mvp 78]

He seemed okay there in the minors, which normally translates to being able to do well at 1B over a certain learning curve time period that in no way should have lasted this long.

 

Could he still be better at 3B than 1B?

 

We'll never find out.

 

No, scouts say he's too stiff now and less athletic. He's not good at 3b.

[moonslav59]

No, scouts say he's too stiff now and less athletic. He's not good at 3b.

 

I didn't know Rigor Mortis sets in at age 26.

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Very curious who the countermove for Houck coming back up will be today. Would not be surprised if it's Duran. He's started just 2 of the last 7 and has really struggled. Not sure having him as 4th (5th?) OF is the right move for him right now.

 

They wouldn't DFA Shaw after he hit the walk off. Would they?

 

Does sending Duran back to the launching pad hurt his development?

 

Maybe just option Austin Davis to AAA?

 

Duran optioned back to AAA.

[Nick]

Fatigue has nothing to do with Barnes' demise. He's not spinning the ball as he did earlier in the year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Strangely enough, I am not happy with Bogaerts' 'clutch' performance.

 

To me, he does not seem to get it done in big moments.

 

I would rather see Devers up to bat when we need a big hit than Bogaerts.

 

You just made my head explode. Five posters just ran to bb-ref season splits yelling -- no, repeating -- "clutch!" and "choke!"

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think it definitely helps that Schwarber came up as a catcher.

 

Ever since tee-ball, the most important piece of equipment on the diamond is the first baseman's glove -- the place where automatic outs go to be squeezed. I stand by this statement as a parent who is required to stand there on the sidelines until the "game" is declared complete... or called because of dark thoughts. They should actually change the name of the position: the first baseman should really be called the catcher. On the other glove hand, at least through high school these days, catchers should now be called blockers.

[notin]

Ever since tee-ball, the most important piece of equipment on the diamond is the first baseman's glove -- the place where automatic outs go to be squeezed. I stand by this statement as a parent who is required to stand there on the sidelines until the "game" is declared complete... or called because of dark thoughts. They should actually change the name of the position: the first baseman should really be called the catcher. On the other glove hand, at least through high school these days, catchers should now be called blockers.

 

There are no automatic outs in tee ball…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There are no automatic outs in tee ball…

 

"to be squeezed" is often the infinitive followed by appositives like "before the ball arrives", "right out of the webbing," or (referring to wailing wearer) "by a consoling relative, after a deflection beans the fielder"... or are those considered ah-negatives?

[notin]

"to be squeezed" is often the infinitive followed by appositives like "before the ball arrives", "right out of the webbing," or (referring to wailing wearer) "by a consoling relative, after a deflection beans the fielder"... or are those considered ah-negatives?

 

So you’re saying the only automatic outs in tee ball are when the first baseman knocks himself out?

[oldtimer]

That's the line-up I envisioned when we got Schwarber, and I think Bloom did, too.

 

The groin injury to Kyle not only delayed his joining the line-up, it further delayed his use at 1B- our highest need area.

 

Dalbec's brief hot streak masked the need for a bit, but clearly, this line-up is deadly.

 

While the defense at 1B looks scary, it already has been, and we improve at 2B and CF by playing Arroyo & Kike at their right positions.

 

This line-up is KILLER!

 

Yes and they finally got a base hit from one of the most unlikely players as the 8th player in the lineup. Right now this lineup doesn't appear to be killing much.

[oldtimer]

Duran optioned back to AAA.

 

We have gone to the big and slow lineup. Cora indicates Duran would not get at bats if he stayed so I suppose he did the right thing. Proof will be if the team can win with this approach.

[mvp 78]

We have gone to the big and slow lineup. Cora indicates Duran would not get at bats if he stayed so I suppose he did the right thing. Proof will be if the team can win with this approach.

 

I'm here for the softball league Red Sox. Don Baylor would be a great fit on this team.

[notin]

We have gone to the big and slow lineup. Cora indicates Duran would not get at bats if he stayed so I suppose he did the right thing. Proof will be if the team can win with this approach.

 

 

I don’t think the “big and slow” aspect of the lineup is the problem and definitely don’t think Duran is the solution. The Sox were 56-36 with this lineup (with only Schwarber replacing Dalbec now) before Duran was even called up,..

[moonslav59]

Does anyone have fast line-ups anymore?

 

Not that SBs tells the whole base-running story, but most teams have under 55 SBs, this year.

 

I remember when some players had that many by this time of the year. (Only 2 players have more than 25 on the year.)

[notin]

Does anyone have fast line-ups anymore?

 

Not that SBs tells the whole base-running story, but most teams have under 55 SBs, this year.

 

I remember when some players had that many by this time of the year. (Only 2 players have more than 25 on the year.)

 

And the Red Sox stolen base leader is the catcher!!

[moonslav59]

And the Red Sox stolen base leader is the catcher!!

 

Worse yet, is his total is about 25% of the team total (8 of 33).

[mvp 78]

Does anyone have fast line-ups anymore?

 

Not that SBs tells the whole base-running story, but most teams have under 55 SBs, this year.

 

I remember when some players had that many by this time of the year. (Only 2 players have more than 25 on the year.)

 

It's a different game now. In 1980, 10 players had 50+ SB's. Since 2013, only 10 players have had 50+ SB's.

 

Excluding 2020, this could be the worse year yet for SB's per game.

[notin]

It's a different game now. In 1980, 10 players had 50+ SB's. Since 2013, only 10 players have had 50+ SB's.

 

Excluding 2020, this could be the worse year yet for SB's per game.

 

In 1980, stolen bases were king.

 

In 1915, Ty Cobb stole 96 bases, a record that stood for 36 years. In 1980, three players stole at least 96 bases…