A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[iortiz]

Why do you continuously think players always repeat what they have done in their most recent small sample size?

 

Had Cora only played the hot hands, Dalbec would never have gotten a chance to show he was the next hot hand.

 

Renfroe sucked for all of April, but Cora stuck with him.

 

Devers has had some very bad slumps, then, suddenly, BAM!

 

You don't bench a proven vet over as silly 9 game sample size.

 

Could he use a day off? Maybe- maybe not. Maybe today would be the day he starts his next hot streak.

 

I'd rather see Bogey rest his wrist a few days, but no way would I sit either one for 3 days.

 

BTW, right before JD's horrific 9 game slump, he hit 1.394 in 6 games.

 

Why choose 9 games? Because that's the worst?

 

Go back 16 games and he has 11 RBI, which comes to 110 per 160. (See, I can cherry-pick, too.)

 

Actually in short samples, the very next event or 2 or 3, will likely be what the short sample indicates, for good or bad, and not what their career says.

 

This is actually why you bench good players 1, 2 or 3 days when you are in a bad stretch like JD.

 

OTOH, we are entering into September and decisions will be drastic and out of the book mostly when you are in-between of a dogfight.

 

For instance Cora sat JD which was the right thing to do.

Edited August 27, 2021 by iortiz

[moonslav59]

Actually in short samples, the very next event or 2 or 3, will likely be what the short sample indicates, for good or bad, and not what their career says.

 

This is actually why you bench good players 1, 2 or 3 days when you are in a bad stretch like JD.

 

OTOH, we are entering into September and decisions will be drastic and out of the book mostly when you are in-between of a dogfight.

 

For instance Cora sat JD which was the right thing to do.

 

Who is this "you" you are referring to?

 

It's rarely done over 9 game sample sizes, and it's hardly ever a 3 game long benching for proven vets.

[iortiz]

Who is this "you" you are referring to?

 

It's rarely done over 9 game sample sizes, and it's hardly ever a 3 game long benching for proven vets.

 

Well Cora just sat JD.

 

On you, in the second paragraph? I mean if you are a manger.

[moonslav59]

Well Cora just sat JD.

 

On you, in the second paragraph? I mean if you are a manger.

 

I already said sit him one game "maybe." What are you asking?

 

No way JD sits 3 games, unless he's hurt. No way, and no way any manager does that to a vet with his pedigree.

 

Here are just 2 quick examples I found from this year.

 

Renfroe, a lesser player than JD at the time, had played nearly every game from April 13 to April 30th. He was never given more than 1 game off, despite seeing his OPS fall to .485 at the end of April. Did Cora bench him over a worse streak that JD's current one? Hell, no. He played him the next game and every one after for more than 2 weeks. Good thing he did. He had a .942 OPS the next 13 games.

 

Devers has a higher stature than Hunter, so maybe he's a better comp than Renfore. Devers started the year with a .296 OPS after 5 games and wasn't benched, thank God! He hit 5 HRs in his next 4 games. Later, he had a 6 game slump of .392 (OPS). He went 2 for 4 the next game, then got one day off. That's it.

 

As streaky and slumpy as Dalbec has been, I only found one time he was given 3 games off, and that was after he had just gone 4 for 7 with an HR in his previous 2 games.

 

It just does not happen, and for good reason.

 

Knee jerk managing is losing managing.

[iortiz]

I already said sit him one game "maybe." What are you asking?

 

No way JD sits 3 games, unless he's hurt. No way, and no way any manager does that to a vet with his pedigree.

 

Here are just 2 quick examples I found from this year.

 

Renfroe, a lesser player than JD at the time, had played nearly every game from April 13 to April 30th. He was never given more than 1 game off, despite seeing his OPS fall to .485 at the end of April. Did Cora bench him over a worse streak that JD's current one? Hell, no. He played him the next game and every one after for more than 2 weeks. Good thing he did. He had a .942 OPS the next 13 games.

 

Devers has a higher stature than Hunter, so maybe he's a better comp than Renfore. Devers started the year with a .296 OPS after 5 games and wasn't benched, thank God! He hit 5 HRs in his next 4 games. Later, he had a 6 game slump of .392 (OPS). He went 2 for 4 the next game, then got one day off. That's it.

 

As streaky and slumpy as Dalbec has been, I only found one time he was given 3 games off, and that was after he had just gone 4 for 7 with an HR in his previous 2 games.

 

It just does not happen, and for good reason.

 

Knee jerk managing is losing managing.

 

I'd give him 2 or 3. He is completely lost right now.

[moonslav59]

I'd give him 2 or 3. He is lost right now.

 

Dalbec was lost before he was found, and it didn't take 3 games off.

 

I'm glad you are not our manager. (I'm glad I'm not, either...lol)

[iortiz]

Dalbec was lost before he was found, and it didn't take 3 games off.

 

I'm glad you are not our manager. (I'm glad I'm not, either...lol)

 

I think the line is at +-2.5.

 

We'll see.

[moonslav59]

I think the line is at +-2.5.

 

We'll see.

 

It's not even 1.5, especially with 3 guys out.

[iortiz]

It's not even 1.5, especially with 3 guys out.

The latter is key, yeah.

[moonslav59]

Some of the results of deadline trades:

 

Scherzer 4-0 1.55

Berrios 1-2 4.81

Gibson 3-2 3.77

Kimbrel 0-1 5.23

 

Bryant .877

Turner .804

Gallo ,694

Baez .678

N Cruz .745

Rizzo .707

Schwarber 1.205

 

[Hugh2]

Some of the results of deadline trades:

 

Scherzer 4-0 1.55

Berrios 1-2 4.81

Gibson 3-2 3.77

Kimbrel 0-1 5.23

 

Bryant .877

Turner .804

Gallo ,694

Baez .678

N Cruz .745

Rizzo .707

Schwarber 1.205

 

 

Chris Sale 3-0 2.35

[Hugh2]

There’s ZERO benefit to taking two days off opposed to one. Unless you’re injured.

 

The only way out of a slump is to hit your way there and you can’t hit sitting down.

[Nick]

There’s ZERO benefit to taking two days off opposed to one. Unless you’re injured.

 

The only way out of a slump is to hit your way there and you can’t hit sitting down.

 

I agree. One day of mental health day should be enough. Maybe have that day around an off day.

 

JD is a professional hitter. He needs to be in the lineup.

[Nick]

Yankees are going to be tough to catch.

 

2 vs A's

3 vs Angel's

6 vs Orioles

3 vs Rangers

3 vs Cleveland

3 vs Mets

7 vs Blue Jays

3 vs Red Sox

1 vs Twins

 

Now that will be a must watch wild card game, Sox vs the Evil Empire.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yankees are going to be tough to catch.

 

2 vs A's

3 vs Angel's

6 vs Orioles

3 vs Rangers

3 vs Cleveland

3 vs Mets

7 vs Blue Jays

3 vs Red Sox

1 vs Twins

 

Now that will be a must watch wild card game, Sox vs the Evil Empire.

 

On that day, Boston will snap NY's 44-game winning streak.

[Maxbialystock]

I already said sit him one game "maybe." What are you asking?

 

No way JD sits 3 games, unless he's hurt. No way, and no way any manager does that to a vet with his pedigree.

 

Here are just 2 quick examples I found from this year.

 

Renfroe, a lesser player than JD at the time, had played nearly every game from April 13 to April 30th. He was never given more than 1 game off, despite seeing his OPS fall to .485 at the end of April. Did Cora bench him over a worse streak that JD's current one? Hell, no. He played him the next game and every one after for more than 2 weeks. Good thing he did. He had a .942 OPS the next 13 games.

 

Devers has a higher stature than Hunter, so maybe he's a better comp than Renfore. Devers started the year with a .296 OPS after 5 games and wasn't benched, thank God! He hit 5 HRs in his next 4 games. Later, he had a 6 game slump of .392 (OPS). He went 2 for 4 the next game, then got one day off. That's it.

 

As streaky and slumpy as Dalbec has been, I only found one time he was given 3 games off, and that was after he had just gone 4 for 7 with an HR in his previous 2 games.

 

It just does not happen, and for good reason.

 

Knee jerk managing is losing managing.

 

I love it. I don't agree, but I love it.

 

Let's try two samples, one tiny, one season long. The tiny one is that two games ago the Twins walked Shwarber 4 times to get to JDM, who was 0 for 5. That to me was compelling.

 

The larger one is this season, all 5 months of it.

 

JDM was the same old JDM in April: OPS 1.l75, 9 HR's, 25 rbi's.

 

In the four months since then--count 'em, 4 long months--JDM has been the new JDM whose highest monthly OPS has been .806. And this month it's been .704.

 

So, me, I'm thinking the new JDM is in fact an OPS .800 guy, which is actually not all that bad.

 

What to you think?

[oldtimer]

There’s ZERO benefit to taking two days off opposed to one. Unless you’re injured.

 

The only way out of a slump is to hit your way there and you can’t hit sitting down.

I would be asking both JDM and Bogey what they think about the situation because they are both very experienced players and hitters. If they can shed some light on the current swoon, then their opinion should be listened to. It's like AA, they first have to admit to the problem and identify the steps (probably not 12) to return to their former productive selves. Just throwing the guys out their without a plan to get better doesn't make sense during a pennant race. At one time Bogey's wrist was sore although that was some time ago. I don't know of any excuse for JDM.

[Maxbialystock]

If JDM is in fact an OPS .800 guy, Cora has one or more options I think he should consider.

 

1. JDM can DH or play the outfield, as appropriate, but he probably should be moved down in the batting order, calamitous as that sounds. I know it happened to Ortiz one season.

 

2. Give Dalbec more opportunities at 1B (or 3b) as long as he continues to hit like August Dalbec (OPS 1.183, 5 dingers, 19 rbi's). This should be easy as long as Kike and Arroyo are out.

 

If JDM starts tonight, for example, he can DH or go to the outfield (where he still has a good arm).

 

Heck, if he leads off (in place of Munoz), it's doubtful the opposing manager will walk the Sox 9th batter four times to get to JDM.

 

Indeed, before Kike showed he could lead off, leading off for the Sox was like patrolling behind enemy lines and earning medals for courage because absolutely nobody could do it and nobody wanted to do it. Think "JDM the hero."

Edited August 28, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[Maxbialystock]

I would be asking both JDM and Bogey what they think about the situation because they are both very experienced players and hitters. If they can shed some light on the current swoon, then their opinion should be listened to. It's like AA, they first have to admit to the problem and identify the steps (probably not 12) to return to their former productive selves. Just throwing the guys out their without a plan to get better doesn't make sense during a pennant race. At one time Bogey's wrist was sore although that was some time ago. I don't know of any excuse for JDM.

 

Meh. This is not at all like AA because--and I love this quote from the movie, For Love of the Game--"we count everything in baseball." And the numbers, which Bogey and JDM well know, don't lie.

 

Just look at Bogie's numbers. His first three monthly OPS's were .915, .961, and .948. July's was .730 and August's is .777 so far. He's hurting.

 

As for JDM, see my other post: he was great in April and in the succeeding four months--not 4 days or even 4 weeks, but 4 dadgum months--he has been a .800 OPS hitter and this month it's .730. At age 34, it's a good bet he is in decline.

Edited August 28, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

As for JDM, see my other post: he was great in April and in the succeeding four months--not 4 days or even 4 weeks, but 4 dadgum months--he has been a .800 OPS hitter and this month it's .730. At age 34, it's a good bet he is in decline.

 

But many of us feared he was in decline after 2020 as well.

 

There was a poster on the other site, Spaceman Eephus, who used to refer to hitting and pitching as the 'dark arts' or words to that effect. I thought that was perfect, because it captured that what makes guys go on good streaks or bad ones is often a complete mystery. No one knows how JD will do the rest of the way.

[Hugh2]

I would be asking both JDM and Bogey what they think about the situation because they are both very experienced players and hitters. If they can shed some light on the current swoon, then their opinion should be listened to. It's like AA, they first have to admit to the problem and identify the steps (probably not 12) to return to their former productive selves. Just throwing the guys out their without a plan to get better doesn't make sense during a pennant race. At one time Bogey's wrist was sore although that was some time ago. I don't know of any excuse for JDM.

 

Who says there isn’t a plan? Just because you don’t like what you see when you scout the box score does t mean there isn’t a plan. As someone who was both a professional athlete and worked a 12 step process I can say that playing them is hurting f them.

 

Injury aside, and in the absence of a sever circumstance (like your whole family dying) more than one day off is not going to do anything for these guys.

 

Players struggle, it really sucks as a fan, I’m sure it sucks more for them. There’s no silver bullet to it.

[oldtimer]

Meh. This is not at all like AA because--and I love this quote from the movie, For Love of the Game--"we count everything in baseball." And the numbers, which Bogey and JDM well know, don't lie.

 

Just look at Bogie's numbers. His first three monthly OPS's were .915, .961, and .948. July's was .730 and August's is .777 so far. He's hurting.

 

As for JDM, see my other post: he was great in April and in the succeeding four months--not 4 days or even 4 weeks, but 4 dadgum months--he has been a .800 OPS hitter and this month it's .730. At age 34, it's a good bet he is in decline.

 

The tendency is to cherry pick stats to support an argument. OPS is one of those where a guy can have a couple of good days against weak pitching and the OPS will hide the fact that he was not so hot the remainder of the time. i include here the game by game logs for Martinez and in them I notice he really fell off from July 22nd onward. I don't know why but the results speak for themselves. He did have a couple of good days against Baltimore and maybe one against the Jays but by in large, not so hot. We need him to be better. The same is true for Bogey.

 

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/hittinglogs.php?p=martijd02&y=2021

[notin]

Who says there isn’t a plan? Just because you don’t like what you see when you scout the box score does t mean there isn’t a plan. As someone who was both a professional athlete and worked a 12 step process I can say that playing them is hurting f them.

 

Injury aside, and in the absence of a sever circumstance (like your whole family dying) more than one day off is not going to do anything for these guys.

 

Players struggle, it really sucks as a fan, I’m sure it sucks more for them. There’s no silver bullet to it.

 

And the bulk of them only get hits between 20% and 30% of their at bats. Failure is a bit part of hitting...

[moonslav59]

I love it. I don't agree, but I love it.

 

Let's try two samples, one tiny, one season long. The tiny one is that two games ago the Twins walked Shwarber 4 times to get to JDM, who was 0 for 5. That to me was compelling.

 

The larger one is this season, all 5 months of it.

 

JDM was the same old JDM in April: OPS 1.l75, 9 HR's, 25 rbi's.

 

In the four months since then--count 'em, 4 long months--JDM has been the new JDM whose highest monthly OPS has been .806. And this month it's been .704.

 

So, me, I'm thinking the new JDM is in fact an OPS .800 guy, which is actually not all that bad.

 

What to you think?

 

That's exactly what I pointed out on another post.

 

Until the last 9 games, JD had been one of our most consistent hitters- not the .950 to 1.000 guys we all wanted, but remarkably near .800 the whole time.

 

Now, because of a super horrid 9 game stretch of stench, people want us to believe this has been a 3-4 month "slump."

 

I'll take an .800 slump for 3 months followed by a 9 game super slump all day long. Sure, I hoped for better from JD, and I still do, but people are equating his steady decline in OPS as being a long slump. When you start out at over 1.175, even hitting .950 for 3 months will show a steady decline in your OPS.

 

Cherry-picking sample sizes can be very misleading, too.

 

Here's one, that to me, is not misleading but very telling. After reaching 1.189 on May 1st, JD hit:

 

.819 in 84 games (up to this bad 9 game slump). That is very decent.

 

The 9 game slump is so bad, it can warp any recent sample size you choose into looking like his slump is much longer than 9 games.

 

.305 OPS in last 9 games.

 

Although he had a 1.394 OPS in the previous 6 games (with 11 RBI), that 9 game slump turn the last 15 day total to .753. The 9 game slump can now look like a 15 day slump, despite the fact that JD went nutty in those 6 previous games!

 

Now, he did have another, longer 15 game slump before these last 15 games:

.411 in 62 PAs, so I can see how someone can take the last 30 games and call it a prolonged slump. It's totally fair.

 

.582 in last 30 games, with the bulk of the good coming in just a 6 game stretch within those 30 games. Of course that is concerning, if not frightening. But let's mix around the sample size choices.

 

Let's look at the prior 21 games before this past 9 (the good 6 with the bad 15). Now, it's just .698- not as rotten as .582.

 

Let's just go back two more games to make the sample 23:

 

.837!!! Yes, 2 games makes it jump from .698 to .837.

 

Let's now add the last 9 games to those 23 to make it a 32 game sample not 30, and the OPS goes from .582 to .691. While .691 is not great, it's also not a horrid slump, except for maybe hitters like JD.

 

Let's keep adding game to the front end:

 

.758 in his last 39 games.

 

.805 in his last 48 games

 

.801 in last 55.

 

.780 in last 68 and .782 in last 77.

 

.801 in his last 95

 

.859 on the season

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

The tendency is to cherry pick stats to support an argument. OPS is one of those where a guy can have a couple of good days against weak pitching and the OPS will hide the fact that he was not so hot the remainder of the time. i include here the game by game logs for Martinez and in them I notice he really fell off from July 22nd onward. I don't know why but the results speak for themselves. He did have a couple of good days against Baltimore and maybe one against the Jays but by in large, not so hot. We need him to be better. The same is true for Bogey.

 

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/hittinglogs.php?p=martijd02&y=2021

 

Good grief. I used monthly OPS's for what is now five months of a six month season. That is not cherry-picking. When I use a small sample, I freely admit it, but five months ain't small.

 

And I resent your cavalier use of the AA analogy. I've been there and done that and been sober since June 13, 1983.

[moonslav59]

If JDM is in fact an OPS .800 guy, Cora has one or more options I think he should consider.

 

1. JDM can DH or play the outfield, as appropriate, but he probably should be moved down in the batting order, calamitous as that sounds. I know it happened to Ortiz one season.

 

2. Give Dalbec more opportunities at 1B (or 3b) as long as he continues to hit like August Dalbec (OPS 1.183, 5 dingers, 19 rbi's). This should be easy as long as Kike and Arroyo are out.

 

If JDM starts tonight, for example, he can DH or go to the outfield (where he still has a good arm).

 

Heck, if he leads off (in place of Munoz), it's doubtful the opposing manager will walk the Sox 9th batter four times to get to JDM.

 

Indeed, before Kike showed he could lead off, leading off for the Sox was like patrolling behind enemy lines and earning medals for courage because absolutely nobody could do it and nobody wanted to do it. Think "JDM the hero."

 

If JD hits .800 the rest of the way, he's still our 4th or 5th best hitter. (Kike might be #4.)

 

I could see moving him down to the 5 or 6 slot, especially for certain match-ups, but that's knowing he'll hit .800. He may hit .600 or 1.000.

 

I might slide him down, here or there, but for now, I'd keep him between the 3 and 6 slots. Remember, the 3 slot is apparently worse than the 4 or 5 slot, so maybe batting him 3rd or 6th makes a lot of sense.

 

Having Schwarber changes the line-up dynamics, even if JD were not struggling.

 

Once Kike and Arroyo return, let's see what happens. Maybe by then, JD is coming out of this slump.

[moonslav59]

The tendency is to cherry pick stats to support an argument. OPS is one of those where a guy can have a couple of good days against weak pitching and the OPS will hide the fact that he was not so hot the remainder of the time. i include here the game by game logs for Martinez and in them I notice he really fell off from July 22nd onward. I don't know why but the results speak for themselves. He did have a couple of good days against Baltimore and maybe one against the Jays but by in large, not so hot. We need him to be better. The same is true for Bogey.

 

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/hittinglogs.php?p=martijd02&y=2021

 

Why is July 22 such a magical date? Is it because choosing that date makes JD's slump look as bad and as long as you can make it out to be?

 

Yes, the results speak for themselves, but what of these results, some shorter- some longer?

 

Longer

.691 since July 19th

.742 since July 9th

.777 since June 30th

.805 since June 27th

 

Shorter

.753 since August 8th

.749 since August 3rd

 

We can choose exact dates to make a point look more solid.

 

No doubt, JD is slumping, but don't these results "speak for themselves," too?

 

Why should July 22nd hold any more meaning than the dates I chose?

 

I'm not claiming my dates mean more than yours. The date you picked does show something useful and meaningful, but it does not negate the other chosen sample sizes- like the ones Max and I chose.

 

[moonslav59]

To those who believe a manager should play the "hot hand" over more established players, that might mean Arauz, Shaw and Dalbec play everyday or until they are no longer the hot hands.

 

OPS over last 14 Days:

 

1.400 Arauz (5 PA)

1.242 Shaw (12)

1.168 Dalbec (32) Would never had played by this method

1.118 Schwarber

1.111 Renfroe (out)

.999 Kike (out)

.972 Verdugo

.773 Bogey

.760 Duran (19)

.680 Devers

.668 Vaz

.566 JD

.258 Plawecki (12)- remember when the play the hot hand people wanted Plawecki to start?

[moonslav59]

OPS Against last 14 Days:

.224 Whitlock

.243 Davis

.431 Richards

 

.647 Eovaldi

.684 Ottavino

.700 Sale

 

.801 ERod

.808 Perez

.832 Houck

.871 Taylor

.874 Sawamura

 

.921 Robles

1.100 Pivetta

1.230 Barnes

 

[Maxbialystock]

If JD hits .800 the rest of the way, he's still our 4th or 5th best hitter. (Kike might be #4.)

 

I could see moving him down to the 5 or 6 slot, especially for certain match-ups, but that's knowing he'll hit .800. He may hit .600 or 1.000.

 

I might slide him down, here or there, but for now, I'd keep him between the 3 and 6 slots. Remember, the 3 slot is apparently worse than the 4 or 5 slot, so maybe batting him 3rd or 6th makes a lot of sense.

 

Having Schwarber changes the line-up dynamics, even if JD were not struggling.

 

Once Kike and Arroyo return, let's see what happens. Maybe by then, JD is coming out of this slump.

 

Well, you and Cora see eye to eye (or is it I to I?). Today it's Duran CF, Shwarber LF, JDM DH, Bogie SS, Devers 3b, Verdugo RF, Vazquez C, Shaw 1b, and Arauz 2B.

 

But I disagree with both of you. Quantrill has been so good this month it might not make any difference, but, knowing JDM is following Shwarber, he will be less likely to throw anything to Shwarber worth swinging at.

 

On the other hand, Bogie is also struggling--2 months in a row--and he is batting 4th.

 

So clearly Cora is going with the guys who have hit the best over the long haul. Duran, Shaw, and Arauz are exceptions because of the guys (Kike and Arroyo) who are unavailable, plus all three are lefty bats.

Edited August 28, 2021 by Maxbialystock