Clay Buchholz - Is he worth the 2016 option?

[User Name]

tl;dr. Please condense.

[Spudboy]

tl;dr. Please condense.

 

Yeah. I don't do walls of text.

[moonslav59]

Well, when I try to be concise, some guys read into my position things that aren't there.

 

Here's the sort version:

 

Holt's value as a full timer on another contending team is worth more than as a utility player with a diminishing role on a team about to lose its DH only DH.

 

The drop off from Holt to Hernandez and/or Holt to Swihart, if any, should not be as much as the upgrade at the position we trade for.

 

[a700hitter]

Well, when I try to be concise, some guys read into my position things that aren't there.

 

Here's the sort version:

 

Holt's value as a full timer on another contending team is worth more than as a utility player with a diminishing role on a team about to lose its DH only DH.

 

The drop off from Holt to Hernandez and/or Holt to Swihart, if any, should not be as much as the upgrade at the position we trade for.

 

That is so much better. Most people didn't read enough of that other post to understand your point.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, when I try to be concise, some guys read into my position things that aren't there.

 

Here's the sort version:

 

Holt's value as a full timer on another contending team is worth more than as a utility player with a diminishing role on a team about to lose its DH only DH.

 

The drop off from Holt to Hernandez and/or Holt to Swihart, if any, should not be as much as the upgrade at the position we trade for.

 

 

Not sure it's a safe assumption we don't have a DH only DH again next year (such as Hanley).

[moonslav59]

Not sure it's a safe assumption we don't have a DH only DH again next year (such as Hanley).

 

I think it's safe to assume HanRam is a better 1Bman than Papi, and even if you don't think that's true, the fear of Papi getting hurt prevented us from playing him in several NL away games this year. That should not happen with hanRam, unless he is not hitting well.

 

Unless we have an OF'er injury, I see Beni, JBJ and Betts as our FT OF. That leaves one of MLB's best bats vs LHPs without a spot to play. I think Young has a near lock on the DH job vs LHPs. I suppose we would rest JBJ and Beni vs LHPs when it's their turn to rest, so Young could start in the OF a few games vs lefties, but basically, he's our platoon DH.

 

The situation ant 3B, 1B and DH (vs RHPs only) is more "fluid" at this point. Too many unanswered questions remain, but the fact is, we have many choices for each role. Here is how I see our depth chart going into next year at each role:

 

3B vs RHPs: Moncada/Shaw/Pablo-Hernandez-Holt/Rutledge

3B vs LHPs: ????? Hernandez-Shaw-Moncada toss-up/ Rutledge/Holt/Pablo

 

1B vs RHPs: Shaw/ HanRam/ Pablo/ Swihart?/Holt

1B vs LHPs: HanRam/ Swihart?/ Shaw/ Pablo-Holt

 

DH vs RHPs: HanRam/ Young/ Pablo- Leon

DH vs LHPs: Young/ HanRam/ Swihart/ Leon

 

[oldtimer]

I think it's safe to assume HanRam is a better 1Bman than Papi, and even if you don't think that's true, the fear of Papi getting hurt prevented us from playing him in several NL away games this year. That should not happen with hanRam, unless he is not hitting well.

 

Unless we have an OF'er injury, I see Beni, JBJ and Betts as our FT OF. That leaves one of MLB's best bats vs LHPs without a spot to play. I think Young has a near lock on the DH job vs LHPs. I suppose we would rest JBJ and Beni vs LHPs when it's their turn to rest, so Young could start in the OF a few games vs lefties, but basically, he's our platoon DH.

 

The situation ant 3B, 1B and DH (vs RHPs only) is more "fluid" at this point. Too many unanswered questions remain, but the fact is, we have many choices for each role. Here is how I see our depth chart going into next year at each role:

 

3B vs RHPs: Moncada/Shaw/Pablo-Hernandez-Holt/Rutledge

3B vs LHPs: ????? Hernandez-Shaw-Moncada toss-up/ Rutledge/Holt/Pablo

 

1B vs RHPs: Shaw/ HanRam/ Pablo/ Swihart?/Holt

1B vs LHPs: HanRam/ Swihart?/ Shaw/ Pablo-Holt

 

DH vs RHPs: HanRam/ Young/ Pablo- Leon

DH vs LHPs: Young/ HanRam/ Swihart/ Leon

 

 

It does look like our outfield next year is going to be Bradley, Betts and Benintendi although Beni still has to show he can be solid over a longer period of time. That leaves a very good player in Young in a utility role. Since he has a very good bat, the thought of him sharing the DH with Hanley and or Swihart makes some sense.

 

While Hanley is not the best fielding 1st baseman in the league, he certainly is acceptable so I can see him there when not DH.

 

If the top two assumptions of lineup are true then that only leaves 3rd base and part of the reps at 1st base to cover. Shaw certainly has to be high up in the consideration for either 1st or 3rd. I really wonder whether Moncada will make the transition to ML early in the year, later or not at all next season. He has the athletic ability but has the most to prove. Holt is valuable enough to be kept but it is possible that if we keep Swihart and Rutledge in utility roles, Holt might be gone. I am not at all on board with Sandoval for any role next year.

[moonslav59]

It does look like our outfield next year is going to be Bradley, Betts and Benintendi although Beni still has to show he can be solid over a longer period of time. That leaves a very good player in Young in a utility role. Since he has a very good bat, the thought of him sharing the DH with Hanley and or Swihart makes some sense.

 

While Hanley is not the best fielding 1st baseman in the league, he certainly is acceptable so I can see him there when not DH.

 

If the top two assumptions of lineup are true then that only leaves 3rd base and part of the reps at 1st base to cover. Shaw certainly has to be high up in the consideration for either 1st or 3rd. I really wonder whether Moncada will make the transition to ML early in the year, later or not at all next season. He has the athletic ability but has the most to prove. Holt is valuable enough to be kept but it is possible that if we keep Swihart and Rutledge in utility roles, Holt might be gone. I am not at all on board with Sandoval for any role next year.

 

No love for Hernandez (over Rutledge)?

[greenwell]

I think it's safe to assume HanRam is a better 1Bman than Papi, and even if you don't think that's true, the fear of Papi getting hurt prevented us from playing him in several NL away games this year. That should not happen with hanRam, unless he is not hitting well.

 

Unless we have an OF'er injury, I see Beni, JBJ and Betts as our FT OF. That leaves one of MLB's best bats vs LHPs without a spot to play. I think Young has a near lock on the DH job vs LHPs. I suppose we would rest JBJ and Beni vs LHPs when it's their turn to rest, so Young could start in the OF a few games vs lefties, but basically, he's our platoon DH.

 

The situation ant 3B, 1B and DH (vs RHPs only) is more "fluid" at this point. Too many unanswered questions remain, but the fact is, we have many choices for each role. Here is how I see our depth chart going into next year at each role:

 

3B vs RHPs: Moncada/Shaw/Pablo-Hernandez-Holt/Rutledge

3B vs LHPs: ????? Hernandez-Shaw-Moncada toss-up/ Rutledge/Holt/Pablo

 

1B vs RHPs: Shaw/ HanRam/ Pablo/ Swihart?/Holt

1B vs LHPs: HanRam/ Swihart?/ Shaw/ Pablo-Holt

 

DH vs RHPs: HanRam/ Young/ Pablo- Leon

DH vs LHPs: Young/ HanRam/ Swihart/ Leon

 

 

I'm not sure I'd anoint Chris Young one MLB's best bats vs LHP. He's been great in his 60 ABs this year, and pretty good last year, but some bad years too.

[oldtimer]

Clay went 5 tonight and gave up just 2 but that is only part of the story. The other part is that he skated on the edge of disaster all five of those innings. The Sox offense make the win possible but Clay is not solid as a starter. By the way, even though I have supported Abad as a relief pitcher with good stuff who should help us, tonight he was shaky again and I am wondering why a guy with an excellent curve and a 95 mph fastball can get into so much trouble. He does seem to have command problems at times.

[Slasher9]

He went 6. 6 innings. Not 5

[mvp 78]

The ump also did him no favors. Clay was fine for a 5th starter. Jeez...

[S5Dewey]

What an odd game that was to be watching. Clay was in and out of trouble all game (did he have even ONE clean inning?) and managed to do his Houdini routine nearly every time. One timely hit by the Yankees and things would have imploded on him, but instead one of the best hitters in baseball insisted on hitting into two DP's.

 

I didn't see this as being much different between this outings and some of he previous outings. This biggest difference I saw between this game and some of the previous ones is that he didn't make his own trouble by walking people. He got a couple of good breaks - as opposed to the bad breaks he's gotten on some balls recently - and rode it to a respectable outing.

 

To get back to the topic of the thread, whether or not he's worth the $13M he's getting this year, it all comes back to the unanswerable question of whether we would have gotten a better pitcher than 7-10, 5.20 ERA for that money. Clay certainly was no bargain, but OTOH he's had some good outings that have led to some wins and in a close pennant race every win is very important.

[Kingface]

tl;dr. Please condense.

 

hahaha!!!

[SoxHop]

The ump also did him no favors. Clay was fine for a 5th starter. Jeez...

 

 

He was also one strike away from not giving up any runs.

[oldtimer]

What an odd game that was to be watching. Clay was in and out of trouble all game (did he have even ONE clean inning?) and managed to do his Houdini routine nearly every time. One timely hit by the Yankees and things would have imploded on him, but instead one of the best hitters in baseball insisted on hitting into two DP's.

 

I didn't see this as being much different between this outings and some of he previous outings. This biggest difference I saw between this game and some of the previous ones is that he didn't make his own trouble by walking people. He got a couple of good breaks - as opposed to the bad breaks he's gotten on some balls recently - and rode it to a respectable outing.

 

To get back to the topic of the thread, whether or not he's worth the $13M he's getting this year, it all comes back to the unanswerable question of whether we would have gotten a better pitcher than 7-10, 5.20 ERA for that money. Clay certainly was no bargain, but OTOH he's had some good outings that have led to some wins and in a close pennant race every win is very important.

 

That is a question DD and the staff will need to deal with for next season. If we keep him he won't be expected to be in the rotation but some kind of backup starter and long reliever. Is he worth the money for that purpose?

[Spudboy]

That is a question DD and the staff will need to deal with for next season. If we keep him he won't be expected to be in the rotation but some kind of backup starter and long reliever. Is he worth the money for that purpose?

 

That is a the real question.

 

I am of the opinion that MLB salaries are severely out of proportion and ridiculous. Imagine, the "avarage" MLB player makes $4.5 mil a year.

 

I think that what he was paid for 2016 is way too much ( see my sig ).

 

If there were a way to bring him back at a lesser amount I would do that. Say $7-$9 mil one year deal.

 

But I know that won't happen and I expect him to be back at $13.5.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure I'd anoint Chris Young one MLB's best bats vs LHP. He's been great in his 60 ABs this year, and pretty good last year, but some bad years too.

 

When the sample size for a recent trend is large enough or approaching validity, I give it more weight.

 

Let's assume 8.5 everyday batters per team x 30 teams. That's 260 players for a legitimate sample size to use.

 

Here's how Young ranks over various sample size going back in time...

 

2015-2016 (150+ PAs / 258 batters)

5th 1.015 (Only 2 players had more PAs and a better OPS: Goldschmidt & N Cruz). While the sample size may seem small, Young's 244 PAs paces him just about in the middle of the "full timer" sample size (138/258).

 

2014-2016 (230+ PAs/ 259 batters)

25th at .895 (only 17 players had more PAs and a higher OPS.)

 

2013-2016 (300+ PAs/ 263 batters)

58th at .833 (just behind Pedey,Betts and Bogey)

 

2012-2016 (350+ PAs/ 279 batters)

64th at .828 (646 PA sample size )

 

2010-2016 (500+ PAs/ 244 batters)

51st at .545

Only 94 batters have over 900 PAs in this sample size and Young places 23rd. For reference, Pedey is 17th at .866 and Justin Upton is 26th at .831.

 

Let's take away the last 2 great years and go 2010-2014:

400+ PAs/ 250 batters

94th at .787

Even these numbers are very respectable and deserving of a place in the line-up when we face a lefty.

 

He used to be a top 40% hitter vs lefties, and over the last 2 years, he's become a top 2% hitter vs lefties. He's top 20% from 2010-2016.

 

Any way I look at it, he's gonna start vs every lefty, if I had the choice.

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

@peteabe

Buchholz mentioned that it was Chili Davis who suggested he pitch exclusively from the stretch. He thought his ball “got on” hitters faster.

[User Name]

I just read about that on MLB.com. So what the f*** are they paying Carl Willis for?

[Navafan29]

I just read about that on MLB.com. So what the f*** are they paying Carl Willis for?

 

Lol to stall with mound visits?

 

 

That is a the real question.

 

I am of the opinion that MLB salaries are severely out of proportion and ridiculous. Imagine, the "avarage" MLB player makes $4.5 mil a year.

 

I think that what he was paid for 2016 is way too much ( see my sig ).

 

If there were a way to bring him back at a lesser amount I would do that. Say $7-$9 mil one year deal.

 

But I know that won't happen and I expect him to be back at $13.5.

 

I agree that the veteran salary inflation gets ridiculous. I'm not sure what we'd legally "have" to offer Buchholz before he becomes a free agent, but I don't think he should get 13 million next year. He did battle back hard from the big low point by caring more than we thought he did, so if he does good in the playoffs, I want him back. I think we should avoid the big salary by giving Buchholz a contract that basically keeps him for the rest of his career, but at a much lower cost. Maybe 7 years and $5 million per year?

[Slasher9]

5 years / $50MM right now. sign it.

 

he is one out away from getting that ERA under 5.

Fangraphs value up to $2.3MM.

 

133IP so far this year. should be good to go for his 2 more regular season starts and then postseason #3 starter.

 

Eff papa smurf. chill dawg is the MAN.

[Bellhorn04]

I just read about that on MLB.com. So what the f*** are they paying Carl Willis for?

 

I hear ya...in Willis's defense, I think this wasn't so much a 'fixing the mechanics' thing as it was a 'what have you got to lose by trying something different' thing when Clay looked just about done.

[User Name]

I hear ya...in Willis's defense, I think this wasn't so much a 'fixing the mechanics' thing as it was a 'what have you got to lose by trying something different' thing when Clay looked just about done.

 

This is, as usual, a sensible post. Good point.

[oldtimer]

Lol to stall with mound visits?

 

 

 

 

I agree that the veteran salary inflation gets ridiculous. I'm not sure what we'd legally "have" to offer Buchholz before he becomes a free agent, but I don't think he should get 13 million next year. He did battle back hard from the big low point by caring more than we thought he did, so if he does good in the playoffs, I want him back. I think we should avoid the big salary by giving Buchholz a contract that basically keeps him for the rest of his career, but at a much lower cost. Maybe 7 years and $5 million per year?

 

I am not one who believes it is worth the risk with Clay. He is kind of emotionally out there and by that I mean somewhat unstable. He still has ability but can he sustain it with his mentality? Better to get someone with less risk if we plan to go long term. One year is a lot different than long term contract and I could abide offering him another year.

[sk7326]

I am not one who believes it is worth the risk with Clay. He is kind of emotionally out there and by that I mean somewhat unstable. He still has ability but can he sustain it with his mentality? Better to get someone with less risk if we plan to go long term. One year is a lot different than long term contract and I could abide offering him another year.

 

The option is easy - it's so cheap that just by being a pretty good swingman, he will justify the investment. Doing so does not preclude the Sox from anything.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I am not one who believes it is worth the risk with Clay. He is kind of emotionally out there and by that I mean somewhat unstable. He still has ability but can he sustain it with his mentality? Better to get someone with less risk if we plan to go long term. One year is a lot different than long term contract and I could abide offering him another year.

 

My guess is that they pick up his option and he is traded this winter. The Sox should have plenty of suitors if they choose to move him.

[S5Dewey]

To get back to the original question at hand, is he worth the 2016 option, IMO there's not much doubt about that now.

 

We MAY have been able to use the $13M better elsewhere, or that $13M may have been used to pay the salary of someone who doesn't have 8 wins and has pitched well out of the pen, too. One never knows. What we do know is that Clay has pitched like the Clay of old recently, albeit only for a part of a season - but OTOH we knew that's what we were getting when we signed him for $13M - a part-of-the-season pitcher. His finding himself when he did has made him worth the $13M.

[sk7326]

My guess is that they pick up his option and he is traded this winter. The Sox should have plenty of suitors if they choose to move him.

 

I think that is fool's gold - if you want to pick up his option, you should be ready to watch him pitch and take 20 minutes between tosses with men on board.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I think that is fool's gold - if you want to pick up his option, you should be ready to watch him pitch and take 20 minutes between tosses with men on board.

 

There is no question that Buchholz has some value, especially when you consider that everyone is looking for pitching and this free agent class for starting pitching is ugly.