Clay Buchholz - Is he worth the 2016 option?

[Bellhorn04]

Is his bat not streaky?

 

He's got an .850 OPS. That's great, streaky or not.

 

Hanley has been streaky too...it's just that his hot streak has been lately.

[mvp 78]

He's got an .850 OPS. That's great, streaky or not.

 

Hanley has been streaky too...it's just that his hot streak has been lately.

 

I'd trade Hanley for Kluber too if they wanted him.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd trade Hanley for Kluber too if they wanted him.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't trade JBJ for Kluber...just saying he's having an excellent all-around season.

[sk7326]

...and we certainly wouldn't want to collect too many of those potential Top 10 players! As I said elsewhere, we've got 3-4 players now that a team is built around. This team now is dealing from a position of strength - we're not out there hoping to hornswoggle some GM into trading us the next JBJ. We've GOT the next JBJ. In addition to that our rotation is looking solid going into 2017. It makes no sense to me for us to intentionally downgrade ourselves in one position to improve our #3 or #4 pitcher - who's already adequate - because we have another player with potential.

 

As I've said before I'm open to trading ANYONE for a Max Scherzer, but teams who have a Scherzer-like pitcher aren't going to trade him. And I'm very against trading one of our 3-4 young players for a pitcher who has the potential to be Scherzer-like. I've seen too many of them flame out.

 

If Betts is potential Top 10 btw, it is only because I assume there are 10 better player in the league - there might not be this year, and there surely won't be the next few. Again, for the right guy you listen - an ace sort qualifies.

 

Kluber is an interesting one - because the Guardians have a lot of starting pitching. One of the Mets starters is another (although clearly Harvey would have been the most likely and we know how that is turning out). Sale, Quintana etc.

 

I would also advocate (at a lesser price) to see if you could make a sneak attack and nab Verlander - who is more expensive (duh) but really damn good. I'd even call the Rangers on Darvish - but they are about as loaded with young positional stud talent as we are.

 

And yes - I am also betting the under on Bradley for next season, although I expect him to be a solid starting CF for his career.

[moonslav59]

I'd trade Hanley for Kluber too if they wanted him.

 

Hanley and JBJ for Kluber? Then sign EE?

[mvp 78]

I'm not saying I wouldn't trade JBJ for Kluber...just saying he's having an excellent all-around season.

 

An excellent, but streaky season.

[a700hitter]

Hanley and JBJ for Kluber? Then sign EE?

Wouldn't Bradley be enough?

[mvp 78]

Wouldn't Bradley be enough?

 

Maybe not. JBJ and Panda for Kluber!

[mvp 78]

Maybe not. JBJ and Panda for Kluber!

 

Nope. Dumb idea.

 

step 1: pick up Buch's option

step 2: package Buch and JBJ together for Kluber

[Bellhorn04]

An excellent, but streaky season.

 

I'd call it an excellent season with one red hot month and one bad month.

 

Apr .807

May 1.175

Jun .805

Jul .839

Aug .651

Sep .783

[a700hitter]

Nope. Dumb idea.

 

step 1: pick up Buch's option

step 2: package Buch and JBJ together for Kluber

I like it.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Guardians would want JBJ plus something else very attractive for Kluber.

[moonslav59]

I think the Guardians would want JBJ plus something else very attractive for Kluber.

 

Yes, like maybe JBJ, Swihart and ERod.

[User Name]

Packaging ERod for Kluber makes no sense for either the Sox or the Guardians.

[moonslav59]

Packaging ERod for Kluber makes no sense for either the Sox or the Guardians.

 

I'm not saying I'd do it, but I think it will take ML ready players to get Kluber- not guys like Kopech and Devers.

 

Both Kluber and ERod have 5 years of team control remaining, but ERod has not even had his first arb year set. Kluber is not being paid much compared to the market, but it's still $60M. That's a little incentive anyways.

 

I agree that the Sox would not do the deal. I'm not sure about CLE and what their motivations are besides beef up their offense.

[Bellhorn04]

First somebody has to explain why the Guardians would even be motivated to trade Kluber.

[Slasher9]

I'd call it an excellent season with one red hot month and one bad month.

 

Apr .807

May 1.175

Jun .805

Jul .839

Aug .651

Sep .783

 

i would most def hire you as my lawyer.

well played.

[User Name]

First somebody has to explain why the Guardians would even be motivated to trade Kluber.

 

Great question. He's under team control on the cheap until 2021 too. So it's really just an example player I used to defend my position. Quintana may be the more realistic option.

[Dojji]

If either Quintana or Kluber changed hands this offseason I's wonder what the Guardians/White Sox knew that we didn't. It isn't very common at all for aces to change hands in trade while they're still aces, especially with years of team control left on their deals. If either of those 2 names were traded this offseason, I'd personally suspect it was the selling team cashing in on past value before the facts caught up with them -- if you take my meaning.

[mvp 78]

Great question. He's under team control on the cheap until 2021 too. So it's really just an example player I used to defend my position. Quintana may be the more realistic option.

 

I just assume that when we say "Kluber" we are just talking about a pitcher with Kluber's abilities. If we go too far down the role playing GM rabbit hole, we'd have to start looking at the AA squad's for every MLB team. Seems like a waste of time to me.

[moonslav59]

If either Quintana or Kluber changed hands this offseason I's wonder what the Guardians/White Sox knew that we didn't. It isn't very common at all for aces to change hands in trade while they're still aces, especially with years of team control left on their deals. If either of those 2 names were traded this offseason, I'd personally suspect it was the selling team cashing in on past value before the facts caught up with them -- if you take my meaning.

 

For Cleveland, my guess would be they might want to balance their team more by improving their offense at the ML level by giving up Kluber, Carrasco or Salazar. There was talk last winter that they were at least gauging the interest in their starters, so I think that's why they are sometimes mentioned. I agree though, why would any contending team trade away an ace or near ace? That leads me to...

 

The CWS might be looking to rebuild. There was some talk of trading Sale at the deadline, so I think rumors involving Sale or Quintana are more "realistic" as UN says. I actually like Quintana and his extra year of team control more than Sale. Both have low cost contracts with an average salary used for the luxury tax even lower than what is owed. That's an extra bonus for teams like the Sox. I'm sure the White Sox would want someone ML ready, but the rest of the package could include players deeper in the minors with high upside. The offer would probably have to start with Benintendi or Moncada (or JBJ/Betts/Bogey). Without knowing what their greatest needs or wants are, I'd try to offer Swihart or Holt plus Johnson along with Devers. They'll probably ask for Kopech or Groome as well, but I might settle for adding Owens and Johnson instead. I'm not sure Beni, Swihart, Dever and Owens and/or Johnson gets it done.

 

Sonny Gray may be available, but I'm not sure about him.

[User Name]

Why are you so intent on trading Holt?

[southpaw777]

...and we certainly wouldn't want to collect too many of those potential Top 10 players! As I said elsewhere, we've got 3-4 players now that a team is built around. This team now is dealing from a position of strength - we're not out there hoping to hornswoggle some GM into trading us the next JBJ. We've GOT the next JBJ. In addition to that our rotation is looking solid going into 2017. It makes no sense to me for us to intentionally downgrade ourselves in one position to improve our #3 or #4 pitcher - who's already adequate - because we have another player with potential.

 

As I've said before I'm open to trading ANYONE for a Max Scherzer, but teams who have a Scherzer-like pitcher aren't going to trade him. And I'm very against trading one of our 3-4 young players for a pitcher who has the potential to be Scherzer-like. I've seen too many of them flame out.

 

his GG D is well known and now hes an AllStar CFer. the bat is pretty known now. 280ish hitter with about a mid 800OPS and 20-25 hr power from the left side. that has a LOT of value if im a GM. to get an ACE type you would use him as a centerpiece, but hes got loads of value on both sides of the ball.

once again, im not all for trading him unless for a young proven pitcher. also remember this. Boras is Xanders and JBJs agent. can we afford both of them if they both seek near or above 20M per for the next 7-8 years? those are some questions we need to ask because all these young kids are gonna want to get paid. they are probably gauging the chances of extending each one.

Xander JBJ Rutledge Holt and Workman all start year one in arbitration. Betts Wright Vaz and Carson Smith after 2017. Id say four names could start to get pricey if performance is good. Smith is my fourth, although at a lesser level but still pricey for a bullpen arm.

they are going to want to lock one or a couple of these guys long term if they can. Wright could make some $$ ala RA Dickey if he comes back and has continued success thru 2017...lots of other things go into it besides him being a great player we need

Edited September 14, 2016 by southpaw777

[S5Dewey]

his GG D is well known and now hes an AllStar CFer. the bat is pretty known now. 280ish hitter with about a mid 800OPS and 20-25 hr power from the left side. that has a LOT of value if im a GM. to get an ACE type you would use him as a centerpiece, but hes got loads of value on both sides of the ball.

once again, im not all for trading him unless for a young proven pitcher. also remember this. Boras is Xanders and JBJs agent. can we afford both of them if they both seek near or above 20M per for the next 7-8 years? those are some questions we need to ask because all these young kids are gonna want to get paid. they are probably gauging the chances of extending each one.

Xander JBJ Rutledge Holt and Workman all start year one in arbitration. Betts Wright Vaz and Carson Smith after 2017. Id say four names could start to get pricey if performance is good. Smith is my fourth, although at a lesser level but still pricey for a bullpen arm.

they are going to want to lock one or a couple of these guys long term if they can. Wright could make some $$ ala RA Dickey if he comes back and has continued success thru 2017...lots of other things go into it besides him being a great player we need

 

I look for a lot of behind the scenes negotiation going on in the off season. I expect the Sox will try to extend one or more of XBo, Betts, and JBJ prior to arbitration - things we probably won't even hear about. I would also expect them to try to extend them until ~ age 30. Regardless of what happens in that effort the Sox will come out of those attempts with a better idea of what their financial obligations are going to be going forward. After that I would expect them to make decisions as to who's tradeable and who isn't.

 

That's why IMO the success of this team this season is so important. If these players can come out of this season with a good feeling about the team and the guys they're playing with they're more liable to tell Bora$$ to take a hike when he ( starts talking about holding out until free agency. They may very well see a good payday now and an even better one at 30 years old.

 

Edit: This is also why they shouldn't even consider trading Pedey - not that I think they will, but there are some who favor the idea. Pedey signed a team-friendly contract and the FO should demonstrate to these "kids" that signing with the Sox means that they'll be staying with the Sox.

Edited September 14, 2016 by S5Dewey

[mvp 78]

Why are you so intent on trading Holt?

 

"The sox don't need positional flexibility anymore as they are already flexible enough." Or something. I don't remember the specific argument made.

[sk7326]

If either Quintana or Kluber changed hands this offseason I's wonder what the Guardians/White Sox knew that we didn't. It isn't very common at all for aces to change hands in trade while they're still aces, especially with years of team control left on their deals. If either of those 2 names were traded this offseason, I'd personally suspect it was the selling team cashing in on past value before the facts caught up with them -- if you take my meaning.

 

Well with the Guardians that is a fair-ish ask - but for both teams it is strong positional depth. Now I don't think the Guardians actually make that move - under control and the team is good. The White Sox on the other hand are not - and so trading your best chip for a chance to add some premium talent is a sound play. And if they believe Don Cooper (like Ray Searage in Pittsburgh) gives them a competitive advantage as a pitching coach - maybe they feel comfortable taking the plunge with somebody else.

[Dojji]

Why are you so intent on trading Holt?

 

If you think Marco Hernandez is good enough to play the utility role, and not good enough to groom as a starter for a team that alrewady has Bogaerts and Pedroia (any question of Hernandez playing third base everyday is laughable) then you move Holt because his successor is here.

 

There's no rush. Holt has years to go before he gets expensive. But at his current contract, with the ability to play starting level 2B and/or backup everywhere else on the field other than P or C, if we can replace him with a competent utility infielder and bring in something of value, it might be worth doing.

[Spudboy]

That's dumb, Dojji.

 

Holt gives the team, GM, and Manager enormous flexibility. Just about any team other than the Cubs would want him for THAT reason.

[Palodios]

If either Quintana or Kluber changed hands this offseason I's wonder what the Guardians/White Sox knew that we didn't. It isn't very common at all for aces to change hands in trade while they're still aces, especially with years of team control left on their deals. If either of those 2 names were traded this offseason, I'd personally suspect it was the selling team cashing in on past value before the facts caught up with them -- if you take my meaning.

 

I really agree with this one. The Pomeranz deal was very expensive, and he was a #2 with no track record and potential durability issues. Young cost-controlled aces haven't been moving.

[moonslav59]

Why are you so intent on trading Holt?

 

I like Holt and understand the value of a flexible player like him. I've answered this question numerous times, but I'll do it again.

 

1) You have to trade value to get value, and the idea is to try and trade a player who might be more valuable to the other team than your own. That's one type of foundation for trying to get the other team to agree to your offer. I think Holt might start on the Guardians. I feel that value is worth more to them as a starter or near FT player then his value as a utility player for us.

 

2) His value to us should lessen once we no longer have a DH only DH. Assuming no further additions, someone like Hernandez or Swihart (Sandy as a long shot) will take the open slot. Swihart's apparent ability to play LF (and maybe his possible future ability to play 1b) and the addition of Beni to the roster makes Holt the 6th OF'er not the 4th or 5th like he was this year. Having Swihart instead of Holt also gives us enormous possibilities of catcher flexibility as we can PH for Vazquez early and often and not have to worry about Leon getting hurt. If Leon can play 1B, Holt's ability to play 1B is almost totally nullified (HanRam, Shaw, Swihart and maybe even Pablo ahead of him at 1B). Holt's best position is 2B, but he's blocked by Pedey, now Moncada has probably gained the second spot from Holt. Hernandez and Rutledge can play adequate 2B as well. 3B is a log jam. It's hard to see Holt getting meaningful time at 3B. He's already played less there than the better 3Bman- Hernandez. Shaw, Moncada, Hernandez and maybe even Rutledge might be ahead of Holt on the depth chart for 3B (plus longshot Pablo). SS is probably Holt's worst defensive position. I'd put Hernandez at SS, if Bogey got hurt. I might even go with Marrero's D over Holt's O, but I admit I'm partial to superior SS defense. Maybe Dubon rises quicker than we think and could be a capable back-up by mid season. I just don't see Holt as the number 2 option anywhere next year. Now, if Beni and or Moncada flop of need more time, and Shaw continues to struggle, and Swihart is slow to recover, and other things happen, this could all change. With so many questions, one can certainly argue for keeping Holt, until we know more about all those issues, but I really like Hernandez- always have. I like Swihart too, but if we keep Holt, I can see trading Swihart. He'll probably get a better return in a package deal with other.

 

3) I don't see room for Holt and Swihart, but maybe this works.

 

C- Leon, Vaz, Swi

1B/DH- HanRam

DH/LF- Young

3B/1B- Shaw

3B- Moncada (AAA?)

2B- Pedey

SS- Bogey

UT- Holt

LF- Beni

CF- JBJ

RF- Betts

 

If you swap Hernandez for Holt, I don't see a massive drop off, if any at most positions. The differential should surely be made up for by the upgrade at the position we trade for.

 

If Moncada starts in AAA and Hernandez (or Pablo) takes his place, I still don't see Holt playing as much as he did this year or last. I still see his value as greater elsewhere. That's not to say I don't think he valuable to us, but we're kidding ourselves, if we think we are going to get a top player without parting with some talent from our own roster. True, Holt is no headliner, but my guess is Terry F. would love to have Holt on his roster.

 

4) Holt seems to have settled into the .710-.730 OPS range, which is very very good for a utility player. He's finally starting to maybe shed the 2nd half blues tag he's had for a while, but he has over 200 less PAs than last year, so the durability/stamina issue is still alive and kicking. I happen to think Hernandez can hit .725. He was at .752 in over 400 PAs at AAA and over .830 at AA in 294 PAs. I'm not going to mention his tiny MLB sample size number. I think he's a better fielder at SS and 3B, which is where Holt might be most needed. I think Beni, Swi and Young are better OF options. I think Moncada might be the number 2 second baseman now, and Hernandez is probably not much worse than Holt on defense at 2B.

 

Maybe I'm just too high on Hernandez. Anyways, Holt's not going to be a major piece of any trade, but he may be able to keep us from losing one very good prospect by offering him and Johnson, instead of Kopech or the like.