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Posted
On 10/22/2026 at 12:25 AM, moonslav59 said:

Look at what bands charge for concerts.

That's where a lot of artists make most of their money now, so I sort of get it.

In 2009 my wife and I shelled out $300 apiece to see Paul McCartney here in Halifax.  I was shaking my head at how nuts it was, yet I didn't regret it.  Once in a lifetime thing.  Then a few years later we shelled out about $180 apiece to see Tom Petty.

It was the Eagles who really made a breakthrough in charging hefty ticket prices.  They got a lot of backlash for it.  I still remember how Glenn Frey responded to the criticism.  He didn't apologize or make any excuses.  His answer was classic:  "Well, we happen to think we're worth it."

Posted
18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm only trading Arias for a SS who hits very well and is not a minus on D.

I've mentioned DLC or Abrams.

I would not trade Arias for Neto or Lopez or 1 year of Pena. If those teams want to add more to the return, I'd listen.

How is Lopez a minus defensively on a metric that doesn’t consider Elly De La Cruz one?

Posted
48 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's where a lot of artists make most of their money now, so I sort of get it.

In 2009 my wife and I shelled out $300 apiece to see Paul McCartney here in Halifax.  I was shaking my head at how nuts it was, yet I didn't regret it.  Once in a lifetime thing.  Then a few years later we shelled out about $180 apiece to see Tom Petty.

It was the Eagles who really made a breakthrough in charging hefty ticket prices.  They got a lot of backlash for it.  I still remember how Glenn Frey responded to the criticism.  He didn't apologize or make any excuses.  His answer was classic:  "Well, we happen to think we're worth it."

My wife and I saw Sir Paul at Yankee Stadium.  I think I paid about $125 each, but they gave serious discounts for people that held season ticket plans.  My only regret was that I didn't ante up for the tickets on the floor, though I'm not sure my wife would've liked being that close.

They don't do many, if any, concerts any more.  Once upon a time, they'd have concerts after the game.  So I go to see Billy Joel for $0.  It was a short concert, but the Song/$$$ was very strong.  Fireworks was a really strong offering as well.

Posted
2 hours ago, notin said:

How is Lopez a minus defensively on a metric that doesn’t consider Elly De La Cruz one?

Lopez is a plus on defense over Story, for sure and probably Arias, too.

He's a plus on O ve both of them.

He's not the same offensive impact player DLC and Abrams are. I'm looking for a high impact bat. I'm willing to sacrifice some D for DLC to get that.

I'd love to see us get Lopez but not for Arias, and BTV agrees. Lopez is 44, and Arias is 64. I'd want to add Suzuki, Sato or Arozarena, if we made this trade. A trade for DLC or Abrams might be enough by itself, or it might allow us to sign a pitcher and not add a second everyday player.

BTV accepts:

Arias (64) for Lopez (44) + Arquetts (24 minor league SS) or Stowers (22 OF) or Ryan Gusto (20 SP) or Snelling (20 SP) or Jason Junk (16 LRP) or Conine (16 OF)

BTV and I would do this one...

Primera (20) Valera 913) Godbout (9) and Cespedes (5) for Lopez.

Posted
2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

My wife and I saw Sir Paul at Yankee Stadium.  I think I paid about $125 each, but they gave serious discounts for people that held season ticket plans.  My only regret was that I didn't ante up for the tickets on the floor, though I'm not sure my wife would've liked being that close.

They don't do many, if any, concerts any more.  Once upon a time, they'd have concerts after the game.  So I go to see Billy Joel for $0.  It was a short concert, but the Song/$$$ was very strong.  Fireworks was a really strong offering as well.

We go to a lot of concerts and hate paying so much for them, but they are lasting memories that I'd never want my money back to replace.

We saw Sir Paul here in HOU a few years back, and it one of our faves.

I will say, some of the much lower pay concerts rank among our faves, including seeing Three Dog Night with the Guess Who in a small arena maybe 5-6 years ago.

I've gone to over a hundred concerts and saved all my ticket stubs into an album that is nearly full.

Posted

I'll take of the pink homer glasses and try to consider the odds these Sox players come close to their best performances of the last 2-3 seasons. 

(Age listed is for most of the 2027 season)

Contreras (35) hit a career best .901 last year. .845 '22-'24. His realistic over/under might be .810-850.

Abreu (27-28) has been consistently in the .770-.790 range and is in his prime. Over/under .760-.800.

Rafaela (26) has improved his OPS every season, but his trend on improving K% & BB% reversed in '26. Since he's in prime, I won't project a decline, but I'll make hsi range include one: .740-.780.

Rutschman (29) is still in prime and will be in a contract year. He is difficult to project. He was .808 '22-'23, .696 '24-'25 & .740 in 2026. O/U: .720-.760.

Durbin (27) might look like the easiest to project, but he's only had two season in MLB- both FT. (.710 & .721) He's in prime and had a good second half. I don't think it's homerism to project .700-.760- an expected slight uptick.

Mead (26) is just entering prime, and maybe I put too much stock into age, but I don't think 2026 was a fluke. His career OPS is .709 and 2026 was at .851. I'm going to expand the range to 60 and go .780-.840. I think this is being conservative.

Anthony (23) is at an age that makes it hard to project. He's had 545 career PAs and an .803 OPS. The unknown nature of his injury adds even more doubt. I think it's fair to surround his career number: .770-.830.

Duran (30) and Story (34 ) are nearly impossible to project. Both are over 30 and showed steep decline. Duran for 2 years and Story for one. I'll take a stab and say Duran .620-.680 and Story .660-.720. Both need 60 point ranges, too- maybe 80 by expanding 20 points lower side. Both may not be starters or could lose their starter roles quickly.

That's the top 10 players from a 13 man portion of the 26 man roster. The next guys will fight for the other 3 slots. Their ranges will expand to 80 or 100 points for obvious reasons.

Yoshida (33) is hard to project, especially with all the injuries. He may be our FT DH, if we trade Duran and or Story. (Anthony to LF and Mead at 2B FT w Arias at SS, with either trade or both.) He's post prime and a .759 career batter. He's been at .725 from '25. I'll go .710-.760.

Wong (31) has been all over the map and could be replaced this winter. His OPS seasons have ranged from .500 to .758, but his last 2 seasons have combined for .586. His largest PA seasons, by far,  '23-'24 combined to .720. That's a 140 point range. I'll narrow it to .570-.670, since he his .656 in '26- his 3rd highest PA season.

Romy (30) hit .826 in 2025 while batting more vs RHPs than his normal platoon vs LHPs. Was that a fluke? If he returns to a more platoon type role, I think we can expect good numbers- maybe .720 to .820. (He hit .721 in 2024.)

Casas (27) has missed so much time, it's hard to remember he hit .800 in 2024 (243 PAs) and .856 in 2023 (502 PAs). That was not so long ago. Those two seasons were 750 of his 950 career PAs and his .766 OPS in '22 was not bad. Together those 850 outweighed his horrific 100 other PAs to keep his career OPS at .800. If healthy, huge if, he could maye give us .740-.840.

Seigler (27-28) Sogard (29 ) and Monasterio (29-30 ) may start in AAA. Seigler's a career .661 but was .721 in '26. I'll go .660-.740. Sogard's career OPS is .697 & was .727 in '26. I think he's a better batter than Seigler, so maybe .670-.750. Monasterio's career is .669 and was .691 from '25-'26, so maybe .660-.720.

White (32) and Jones (29 ) are both RHBs and out of options. Even if we trade Duran, we may only keep one, due to the options limit. White is a career .621 batter but has hit .688 in the last 3 seasons I'll project .650-.730 for Eli. He has career reverse splits, so no extra as a platoon bat. I think we keep Jones due to his age and fantastic splits vs LHPs. He's a career .712 batter but is at .788 since 2025. He's a career .804 batter vs LHPs and is top 15 in MLB the last 2-3 seasons combined. If we make him a strict platoon batter, I think .760-.860 is reasonable. (He reminds me of Refsnyder.)

Gasper (31) is a total wild card, and the injury only makes it more speculative. .445 OPS in his first 133 PAs in MLB then .823 in 2026 as an almost total platoon bat. If he only starts vs RHPs (career .748 OPS) I think we can speculate on .670-.770. 

Arias: N/A (maybe .620-.720?)

With so many options and opportunities for decent to good and even very good seasons, I think we can easily project we can have a line-up with 8-9 batters over .710 or .720. That may be better than any other team can do, but the team lacks players with realistic odds at batting over .790 or .800. .710 to .720 is mediocrity, but it is also the low end of projections on most of our batters. 

Low ends by players in order of projected PAs:

Top 7: .810, .760, .740, .700, .720, 780, 770

Next 3: .720, .710, .620

Next 7: all over the map

High ends look pretty impressive:

Top 7: .850, .800, .780, .760, .780, .740, .770

Next 3: .760, .720, .680

Next 7: .840, .820, .670 (Wong) .740, .750, .720, .860, .760

It's  a hard to project team, for sure.

 

Posted

BB-Ref's Most Similar Batters

(... these were the only Red Sox with enough pt to rate):

Adley Rutschman: Tyler Stephenson

Curtis Mead: Connor Norby

IKF: Maicer Izturis

Trevor Story: Willson Contreras (not a misprint)

Caleb Durbin: Kevin Orie (3.2 career WAR)

Jarren Duran: Brandon Marsh

Ceddanne Rafaela: Danny Santana

Wilyer Abreu: Austin Meadows

Connor Wong: Freddy Fermin (not Freeman or Vermin)

Romy Gonzaelz: Adonis Garcia

Masataka Yoshida: Les Flemming (more filling!)

Triston Casas: Tommy Joseph

Ready for a deep run?

 

 

Old-Timey Member
Posted
On 10/5/2026 at 8:43 AM, mvp 78 said:

If you believe in WAR, Duran was a replacement level player this year. You could swap him out with a AAAA guy and get the same results. Why worry about letting him walk no matter what happens with Anthony? The replacement for Masa is Mead. 

Exactly....back to hoarding as many mediocre players as possible is our approach now? (this is to the OP)

Instead of buying more blankets, why don't we insulate our house better?

Community Moderator
Posted
1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'll take of the pink homer glasses and try to consider the odds these Sox players come close to their best performances of the last 2-3 seasons. 

(Age listed is for most of the 2027 season)

Contreras (35) hit a career best .901 last year. .845 '22-'24. His realistic over/under might be .810-850.

Abreu (27-28) has been consistently in the .770-.790 range and is in his prime. Over/under .760-.800.

Rafaela (26) has improved his OPS every season, but his trend on improving K% & BB% reversed in '26. Since he's in prime, I won't project a decline, but I'll make hsi range include one: .740-.780.

Rutschman (29) is still in prime and will be in a contract year. He is difficult to project. He was .808 '22-'23, .696 '24-'25 & .740 in 2026. O/U: .720-.760.

Durbin (27) might look like the easiest to project, but he's only had two season in MLB- both FT. (.710 & .721) He's in prime and had a good second half. I don't think it's homerism to project .700-.760- an expected slight uptick.

Mead (26) is just entering prime, and maybe I put too much stock into age, but I don't think 2026 was a fluke. His career OPS is .709 and 2026 was at .851. I'm going to expand the range to 60 and go .780-.840. I think this is being conservative.

Anthony (23) is at an age that makes it hard to project. He's had 545 career PAs and an .803 OPS. The unknown nature of his injury adds even more doubt. I think it's fair to surround his career number: .770-.830.

Duran (30) and Story (34 ) are nearly impossible to project. Both are over 30 and showed steep decline. Duran for 2 years and Story for one. I'll take a stab and say Duran .620-.680 and Story .660-.720. Both need 60 point ranges, too- maybe 80 by expanding 20 points lower side. Both may not be starters or could lose their starter roles quickly.

That's the top 10 players from a 13 man portion of the 26 man roster. The next guys will fight for the other 3 slots. Their ranges will expand to 80 or 100 points for obvious reasons.

Yoshida (33) is hard to project, especially with all the injuries. He may be our FT DH, if we trade Duran and or Story. (Anthony to LF and Mead at 2B FT w Arias at SS, with either trade or both.) He's post prime and a .759 career batter. He's been at .725 from '25. I'll go .710-.760.

Wong (31) has been all over the map and could be replaced this winter. His OPS seasons have ranged from .500 to .758, but his last 2 seasons have combined for .586. His largest PA seasons, by far,  '23-'24 combined to .720. That's a 140 point range. I'll narrow it to .570-.670, since he his .656 in '26- his 3rd highest PA season.

Romy (30) hit .826 in 2025 while batting more vs RHPs than his normal platoon vs LHPs. Was that a fluke? If he returns to a more platoon type role, I think we can expect good numbers- maybe .720 to .820. (He hit .721 in 2024.)

Casas (27) has missed so much time, it's hard to remember he hit .800 in 2024 (243 PAs) and .856 in 2023 (502 PAs). That was not so long ago. Those two seasons were 750 of his 950 career PAs and his .766 OPS in '22 was not bad. Together those 850 outweighed his horrific 100 other PAs to keep his career OPS at .800. If healthy, huge if, he could maye give us .740-.840.

Seigler (27-28) Sogard (29 ) and Monasterio (29-30 ) may start in AAA. Seigler's a career .661 but was .721 in '26. I'll go .660-.740. Sogard's career OPS is .697 & was .727 in '26. I think he's a better batter than Seigler, so maybe .670-.750. Monasterio's career is .669 and was .691 from '25-'26, so maybe .660-.720.

White (32) and Jones (29 ) are both RHBs and out of options. Even if we trade Duran, we may only keep one, due to the options limit. White is a career .621 batter but has hit .688 in the last 3 seasons I'll project .650-.730 for Eli. He has career reverse splits, so no extra as a platoon bat. I think we keep Jones due to his age and fantastic splits vs LHPs. He's a career .712 batter but is at .788 since 2025. He's a career .804 batter vs LHPs and is top 15 in MLB the last 2-3 seasons combined. If we make him a strict platoon batter, I think .760-.860 is reasonable. (He reminds me of Refsnyder.)

Gasper (31) is a total wild card, and the injury only makes it more speculative. .445 OPS in his first 133 PAs in MLB then .823 in 2026 as an almost total platoon bat. If he only starts vs RHPs (career .748 OPS) I think we can speculate on .670-.770. 

Arias: N/A (maybe .620-.720?)

With so many options and opportunities for decent to good and even very good seasons, I think we can easily project we can have a line-up with 8-9 batters over .710 or .720. That may be better than any other team can do, but the team lacks players with realistic odds at batting over .790 or .800. .710 to .720 is mediocrity, but it is also the low end of projections on most of our batters. 

Low ends by players in order of projected PAs:

Top 7: .810, .760, .740, .700, .720, 780, 770

Next 3: .720, .710, .620

Next 7: all over the map

High ends look pretty impressive:

Top 7: .850, .800, .780, .760, .780, .740, .770

Next 3: .760, .720, .680

Next 7: .840, .820, .670 (Wong) .740, .750, .720, .860, .760

It's  a hard to project team, for sure.

 

Dumping Yoshida and getting a good DH seems like one of the few no-brainers.  

Posted
4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

BB-Ref's Most Similar Batters

(... these were the only Red Sox with enough pt to rate):

Adley Rutschman: Tyler Stephenson

Curtis Mead: Connor Norby

IKF: Maicer Izturis

Trevor Story: Willson Contreras (not a misprint)

Caleb Durbin: Kevin Orie (3.2 career WAR)

Jarren Duran: Brandon Marsh

Ceddanne Rafaela: Danny Santana

Wilyer Abreu: Austin Meadows

Connor Wong: Freddy Fermin (not Freeman or Vermin)

Romy Gonzaelz: Adonis Garcia

Masataka Yoshida: Les Flemming (more filling!)

Triston Casas: Tommy Joseph

Ready for a deep run?

With an elite batter added, yes.

The pitching and defense added to an improved offense should be enough.

BTW, we didnt see Mead or Casas or much of Anthony, AR, Romy & Story, so it's almost like we are adding all of them, too.

Posted
4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Dumping Yoshida and getting a good DH seems like one of the few no-brainers.  

I might prefer Mead at DH (add a SS like DLC, Abrams or even Lopez) or even Anthony (add Suzuki?) But, sure, DH is one slot we can make a serious upgrade.

SS is the other low offensive outlook slot.

Posted
4 hours ago, Nick said:

Exactly....back to hoarding as many mediocre players as possible is our approach now? (this is to the OP)

Instead of buying more blankets, why don't we insulate our house better?

It's actually not a bad way to rebuild: add the supporting pieces first, then add the muscle. Paying bigtime for elite players before you have a core to support them is a waste of JH's hard-earnd money (LOL)

To me, we have 8-9 players who have "mediocre" as their floor- not their projections.

If three meet their floor, we'd have 3 mediocre. If three meet their projections, we'd have three decent to good players. If 3 meet their ceiling, we could have three very good to excellent bats to go with Contreras and the added elite bat I hope we get.

Posted
4 hours ago, Nick said:

Exactly....back to hoarding as many mediocre players as possible is our approach now? (this is to the OP)

When you look at the 2020 and 2022 rosters, how many slots were mediocre as the ceiling?

How good were the 22-26th players on the 26 and the rest of the 40? 

Did you really expect a transformation of crappy to elite at 20 roster slots and the other 20 to be near or above mediocre on JH's budgets?

Sure, teams like MIL and TBR have figured out how to do it, but they had decent cores 3 years ago.

The 2022 Sox by most PAs and IP:

Verdugo (about to suck badly)

Bogey (FA to be)

Devers (about to pout)

JD (FA to be)

Kike (the .629 one)

Story (the one about to miss the rest his career)

Dalbec (LOL)

Vazquez (31 y/o) and traded away at the deadline

Arroyo (near hsi end)

JBJ (already sucking)

Cordero, Pham (both over 230 PAs)

Duran just beginning.

Pitchers

Pivetta (the 4.56 one)

Wacha (on a one and done)

Hill (same as Wacha)

Nate (FA to be)

Whitlock (as SP)

Crawford

Winckowski

Schreiber,  Brasier & Houck (60+ IP)

Bello, Davis Sawamura (50+)

Strahm (FA) Danish, Barnes & Diekman (38+)

Posted
9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We go to a lot of concerts and hate paying so much for them, but they are lasting memories that I'd never want my money back to replace.

We saw Sir Paul here in HOU a few years back, and it one of our faves.

I will say, some of the much lower pay concerts rank among our faves, including seeing Three Dog Night with the Guess Who in a small arena maybe 5-6 years ago.

I've gone to over a hundred concerts and saved all my ticket stubs into an album that is nearly full.

Yonkers Raceway use to put on concerts, and for whatever reason, I just didn't go.  Three Dog Night was one of them, and they are a great band.

Posted
On 10/23/2026 at 2:14 PM, mvp 78 said:

You were projecting every Sox starter to hit over 720 when the only projected starters to do that in '26 were Roman, Rafaela, Abreu and Contreras. Just ticking the box on the other 5 guys seems fairly presumptuous. 

I was using OPS+.  I used .720 for Arias since he had no OPS+ to use as a reference.

Posted
7 hours ago, Nick said:

Exactly....back to hoarding as many mediocre players as possible is our approach now? (this is to the OP)

Instead of buying more blankets, why don't we insulate our house better?

In the reference to MVP's remark about Duran, it's a real easy call, if you know he is going to be a 0.4 bWAR player again.  But if he reverts to 3.0, and we sign Aroz for $66M/3, and he gives us a 2.0, then it is a disaster.

 

Posted
7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Dumping Yoshida and getting a good DH seems like one of the few no-brainers.  

Who is the good DH we are getting, and what is the cost?

Posted
31 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Yonkers Raceway use to put on concerts, and for whatever reason, I just didn't go.  Three Dog Night was one of them, and they are a great band.

When we saw Three Dog Night, they looked like 85 year old morticians, but the songs were spot on perfect.

The Guess Who was really good too. That was in 2016,

If I had to rank my favorite concerts:

1. Talking Head at Cumberland County Civic Center (Stop Making Sense tour)

2. The Who at the Pontiac Silverdome (1979- days after the tragedy in Cincy)

3. The Psychedelic Furs at the Orpheum Boston MA 1980

4. The Grateful Dead CCCC, Portland, Maine 1979

5. Eric Clapton with Muddy Waters, CCCC (13 days after #4)

6. Rolling Stones in Mexico City 2006

7, Paul McCartney Houston 2012.

8. Blue Oyster Cult, Ten Years Later, Dr. Hook, Joe Cocker and others at Scarborough Downs 1978

9. Lou Reed with Rob Wasserman at Great Woods 1992 (Magic & Loss tour)

10.. The Cure in Houston 2023

11. The Grateful Dead at Oxford Plains Speedway (2 days campout 1988)

12. David Byrne at the Sanders Theatre in Cambridge, MA 1994

13. U2 in HOU 2017 (Joshua Tree tour)

14. Rick Danko & Garth Hudson in Portland, ME 1991 (Raoul's Roadside Attraction- a small bar)

15. Violent Femmes at the State Theatre 1994

16. G. Love and Special Sauce 1995 (small club in Portland. ME)

17. Neil Young (twice)

18. Pink Floyd Foxboro 1994

19. Tom Petty at Worcester 1985 & again in the Woodlands in one of his last concerts

20. Peter Gabriel in HOU 2023

Others: Heart and Yes at Notre Dame, The Band & Hot Tuna 1987, Roger Waters CCCC 1987, Page & Plant CCCC 1988, Jerry Garcia OOB 1987, Bowie 1990, ICP 2000 at the State Theater, Tom Tom Club 2000, Madonna 2008, Springsteen 2014 Woodlands TX. James Taylor 2014 at Woodlands, Fleetwood Mac 2015 HOU, Billy Joel 2015 HOU, Dylan many times, b-52's, Phil Collins and a few more.

We had tickets to see Led Zeppelin but Plant's son died, and they cancelled the tour.  (1977 Chicago IL)

 

Posted
52 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Who is the good DH we are getting, and what is the cost?

We will be using a platoon of...

Gasper & Jones

or

Casas & Romy

Old-Timey Member
Posted
5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We will be using a platoon of...

Gasper & Jones

or

Casas & Romy

When the Red Sox have had their best teams  they have had a good, dedicated power bat at DH.  JD, and Papi come to mind. Theses are far cries from someone like that.

 

Community Moderator
Posted
9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

In the reference to MVP's remark about Duran, it's a real easy call, if you know he is going to be a 0.4 bWAR player again.  But if he reverts to 3.0, and we sign Aroz for $66M/3, and he gives us a 2.0, then it is a disaster.

Not necessarily. If Duran is deriving most of his WAR value through defense, I'd argue that I'd rather a 2 WAR Arozarena. I think the defensive portion of WAR isn't great and greatly overinflates some seasons (Wong '23 2.0 bWAR, 0.3 fWAR). Solely relying on WAR isn't the perfect solution here. Sox need offense. Duran's offense is in clear decline. I don't necessarily agree that Arozarena is the choice to fix that though. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Old Red said:

When the Red Sox have had their best teams  they have had a good, dedicated power bat at DH.  JD, and Papi come to mind. Theses are far cries from someone like that.

 

No doubt, but there are other ways to win than trying to replicate the 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018 teams.

I'm all for adding an elite bat with power.

DLC or Abrams

and/or

Suzuki or Sato

Posted
1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Not necessarily. If Duran is deriving most of his WAR value through defense, I'd argue that I'd rather a 2 WAR Arozarena. I think the defensive portion of WAR isn't great and greatly overinflates some seasons (Wong '23 2.0 bWAR, 0.3 fWAR). Solely relying on WAR isn't the perfect solution here. Sox need offense. Duran's offense is in clear decline. I don't necessarily agree that Arozarena is the choice to fix that though. 

I think Sato is a better gamble than Arozarena.

I'd prefer more know commodities: DLC, Abrams and Suzuki.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No doubt, but there are other ways to win than trying to replicate the 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018 teams.

I'm all for adding an elite bat with power.

DLC or Abrams

and/or

Suzuki or Sato

might as well throw in Tarik Skubal as we have about as much chance landing him as any of those you listed.

Posted
1 minute ago, JimEd said:

might as well throw in Tarik Skubal as we have about as much chance landing him as any of those you listed.

Why do u say that?

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