A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

 

Tough way to end the season. That magical stretch was just that: magic. It’s difficult to think about next year, so soon, and there are so many unanswered questions and unknowns- many centered around injured players or players that had better or worse than expected 2026 seasons. There are not many FAs lost issues, except Gray. It could be a huge loss, but it’s really just one. IKF & Sandoval are not significant losses.

I’ll get into budget issues later on, but wanted to start off with what the roster and foundation look like going into 2027. IMO, the 26 man roster will involve some tough choices as some players are out of options, paid handsomely or coming off the IL to a slot that is already filled. If we make the minimum 2-3 additions I think are needed, that will further squeeze the 26. I’m not too worried about the 40 man roster crunch, even if we add 3 new players. It’s not that I dislike our “bubble players,” but I don’t think we need to worry about cutting a few loose or trading some. Each winter, Brez seems to trade away a bunch of these types for prospects or same level players.

Before any changes are made, here is what I see is the likely 26 man roster. I’m going to put Gray, but only because I feel strongly that we will bring him back or try to replace him in kind. (I’ll go with Arias in AAA, since he is not a Rule 5 guy and can wait to be added. I’d prefer he start the year as out FT SS.) I’m also assuming Duran is gone, but if he’s back, one from Jones or White will be traded, since both are out of options.

SP: Tolle, Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Bennett

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Bello, Slaten, Guerrero, Houck, Moran (no options)

C: Rutschman & Wong

1B: Contreras

2B: Mead

3B: Durbin & Sogard

SS: Story

LF: Anthony, Jones

CF: Rafaela, White

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida

The rest of the 40 could be… (14 in AAA/AA)

9: Oviedo, Crawford, Weissert, Romy, Monasterio, Gasper, Campbell, Gamboa, Paez

5 from:

Trade/DFA: Duran, Casas, Eaton, Cheng, Rivera, Samaniego, Kelly, Burgos, Olds

Rule 5: Brannon, Jo Garcia, Wehunt, Ward (Ro Hernandez, Mullins, Romero/Rogers)

If and when we do add players (assuming no 1-for-1 trades, we will need to bump others down. I think we’ll trade Duran and maybe Story (add Arias) or Yoshida (add Casas.) We’ll add Brannon, Jo Garcia and Wehunt to the 40. We’ll keep Eaton, Cheng, Rivera and Samaniego.

The last point I will hit on for the kick-off post is this: Where is our biggest need areas and who might we bump out of a starting slot or significant role?

Most likely players to hold slots/roles (in order of most likely to return) :

Everyday:

CF Rafaela

1B Contreras

RF Abreu

C Rutschman

2B/DH Mead

3B Durbin

DH/LF Anthony (is higher on list but injury drops him)

This leaves SS (Arias, Story, Monasterio, Cheng) and LF/DH (Yoshida, Jones, White, Campbell, Gasper-Jones, Sogard-Romy) as the most upgradeable positions.

Pitching

SP1 Crochet

SP2 Tolle

SP3 Gray (or replacement)

SP4 Bennett

SP5 Suarez

Closer Chapman

RP2 Whitlock

SP/RP Bello

RP3 Miller

SP/RP Houck

SP/RP Crawford & Oviedo

RP: Slaten, Moran & Weissert

Maybe we bring Gray back or sign Nick Martinez, King or Morejon.

I hope there is no prolonged lock-out, and we have a productive off season. I’m glad we extended Brez & Tracy. From 2020 to 2023, the Sox went 2 under .500. Under Brez, we’ve been +26 games in 3 seasons. Although we had less wins in 2026 than 2025, I think the team got better, at least on paper- before all the injuries.

Let’s hope JH is willing to spend, and Brez still has the good trade mojo. Let's bring Gary or someone like him back. Let's add a nice pen piece (Morejon?) and a big bat (____???_____.)

 

[mvp 78]

85 wins

[Randy Red Sox]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Tough way to end the season. That magical stretch was just that: magic. It’s difficult to think about next year, so soon, and there are so many unanswered questions and unknowns- many centered around injured players or players that had better or worse than expected 2026 seasons. There are not many FAs lost issues, except Gray. It could be a huge loss, but it’s really just one. IKF & Sandoval are not significant losses.

I’ll get into budget issues later on, but wanted to start off with what the roster and foundation look like going into 2027. IMO, the 26 man roster will involve some tough choices as some players are out of options, paid handsomely or coming off the IL to a slot that is already filled. If we make the minimum 2-3 additions I think are needed, that will further squeeze the 26. I’m not too worried about the 40 man roster crunch, even if we add 3 new players. It’s not that I dislike our “bubble players,” but I don’t think we need to worry about cutting a few loose or trading some. Each winter, Brez seems to trade away a bunch of these types for prospects or same level players.

Before any changes are made, here is what I see is the likely 26 man roster. I’m going to put Gray, but only because I feel strongly that we will bring him back or try to replace him in kind. (I’ll go with Arias in AAA, since he is not a Rule 5 guy and can wait to be added. I’d prefer he start the year as out FT SS.) I’m also assuming Duran is gone, but if he’s back, one from Jones or White will be traded, since both are out of options.

SP: Tolle, Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Bennett

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Bello, Slaten, Guerrero, Houck, Moran (no options)

C: Rutschman & Wong

1B: Contreras

2B: Mead

3B: Durbin & Sogard

SS: Story

LF: Anthony, Jones

CF: Rafaela, White

RF: Abreu

DH: Yoshida

The rest of the 40 could be… (14 in AAA/AA)

9: Oviedo, Crawford, Weissert, Romy, Monasterio, Gasper, Campbell, Gamboa, Paez

5 from:

Trade/DFA: Duran, Casas, Eaton, Cheng, Rivera, Samaniego, Kelly, Burgos, Olds

Rule 5: Brannon, Jo Garcia, Wehunt, Ward (Ro Hernandez, Mullins, Romero/Rogers)

If and when we do add players (assuming no 1-for-1 trades, we will need to bump others down. I think we’ll trade Duran and maybe Story (add Arias) or Yoshida (add Casas.) We’ll add Brannon, Jo Garcia and Wehunt to the 40. We’ll keep Eaton, Cheng, Rivera and Samaniego.

The last point I will hit on for the kick-off post is this: Where is our biggest need areas and who might we bump out of a starting slot or significant role?

Most likely players to hold slots/roles (in order of most likely to return) :

Everyday:

CF Rafaela

1B Contreras

RF Abreu

C Rutschman

2B/DH Mead

3B Durbin

DH/LF Anthony (is higher on list but injury drops him)

This leaves SS (Arias, Story, Monasterio, Cheng) and LF/DH (Yoshida, Jones, White, Campbell, Gasper-Jones, Sogard-Romy) as the most upgradeable positions.

Pitching

SP1 Crochet

SP2 Tolle

SP3 Gray (or replacement)

SP4 Bennett

SP5 Suarez

Closer Chapman

RP2 Whitlock

SP/RP Bello

RP3 Miller

SP/RP Houck

SP/RP Crawford & Oviedo

RP: Slaten, Moran & Weissert

Maybe we bring Gray back or sign Nick Martinez, King or Morejon.

I hope there is no prolonged lock-out, and we have a productive off season. I’m glad we extended Brez & Tracy. From 2020 to 2023, the Sox went 2 under .500. Under Brez, we’ve been +26 games in 3 seasons. Although we had less wins in 2026 than 2025, I think the team got better, at least on paper- before all the injuries.

Let’s hope JH is willing to spend, and Brez still has the good trade mojo. Let's bring Gary or someone like him back. Let's add a nice pen piece (Morejon?) and a big bat (____???_____.)

 

who's Gary?

[Randy Red Sox]

why is.nt there more discussions about the 2 bad plays Conreras had at 1B? The 2nd one led to the early removal; of Gray. Both were inexcusable.

[drewski6]

Just now, Randy Red Sox said:

why is.nt there more discussions about the 2 bad plays Conreras had at 1B? The 2nd one led to the early removal; of Gray. Both were inexcusable.

Probably because without Contreras we are the worst hitting team the Red Sox have put forth in a very long time, so we put up with a lot with Contreras.  But we all know hes a time bomb.

[Tedballgame]

Gray is not coming back after last night unless they completely overpay him, which we know they won't. He is a midwest guy. I  could see him going back to the Reds or Cardinals.

The lineup just doesn't have one bat that teams fear which is where the Sox really blew it by not signing Alonso. There isn't a FA bat like that out there this off season. Next year is going to be just like this year. 85-88 wins, a wild card, and an early exit. Maybe when Story and Yoshida are off the books they can spend on some bats.

I hate to say it but they have to give Casas a long look in ST. Power bats are hard to find and he could hit 30 if he gets his head out of his a$$.

[Tedballgame]

10 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

why is.nt there more discussions about the 2 bad plays Conreras had at 1B? The 2nd one led to the early removal; of Gray. Both were inexcusable.

The Sox lineup was not good enough to beat Schlittler or Fried so Contreras' defense had little to do with the loss. You have to be able to score 4-6 runs in a playoff game to win unless you have Bob Gibson pitching for you.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

Gray is not coming back after last night unless they completely overpay him, which we know they won't. He is a midwest guy. I  could see him going back to the Reds or Cardinals.

The lineup just doesn't have one bat that teams fear which is where the Sox really blew it by not signing Alonso. There isn't a FA bat like that out there this off season. Next year is going to be just like this year. 85-88 wins, a wild card, and an early exit. Maybe when Story and Yoshida are off the books they can spend on some bats.

I hate to say it but they have to give Casas a long look in ST. Power bats are hard to find and he could hit 30 if he gets his head out of his a$$.

You had me until the end there.  Casas cannot be counted on for anything and if they dont go get a power bat then I see no reason to not expect more of the same if not worse.