Tarik Skubal's Availability Poses An Interesting Red Sox Dilemma: Patience or Aggression?

[Maddie Landis]

The 2025 Detroit Tigers season was an emotional rollercoaster. Heading into the All-Star Break, the team held a 59-38 record, the best in baseball, and a 12-game division lead over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. Following an epic collapse (28-37), they finished the season second in the division behind the Guardians.

It’s difficult to imagine where the Tigers would be without their ace Tarik Skubal. Over the past three seasons, the team went 38-13 in the southpaw's starts. Skubal won the AL pitching Triple Crown in 2024, leading AL pitchers with 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA, and 228 strikeouts, and unanimously won the AL Cy Young Award. His dominance continued in 2025, and he won his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award, finishing with 13 wins, a 2.21 ERA, and 241 strikeouts.

Skubal had Tommy John surgery in 2017, causing him to miss part of the 2016 season and the entirety of the 2017 season at Seattle University. Although Skubal’s velocity (95 mph fastball) was promising, concerns over his injury led him to fall in the 2018 MLB Draft, with the Tigers selecting him in the ninth round (255th overall). After his first two seasons in the Tigers’ farm system, a December 2020 Baseball America scouting report projected Skubal’s “ceiling of at least a mid-rotation starter”. Skubal underwent flexor tendon surgery in August 2022. He returned to pitching just before the 2023 All-Star Break, with the velocity on almost all of his pitches increasing. The following season, he tinkered with his pitch sequencing, reducing the use of his slider (14.9%) and fastball (33.2%), while throwing his changeup (27.0%)  and sinker (20.6%) more often.
 

Following the Tigers' departure from the 2025 postseason, Jon Heyman reported that the Tigers and Skubal are over $250 million apart in extension negotiations, sparking speculation that Skubal could be dealt this offseason.

At the recent GM meetings, Craig Breslow stated the Red Sox were looking to add a frontline starter to put behind Garrett Crochet and a power bat. What about a pitcher who could slot in front of Garrett Crochet? Let’s imagine a Red Sox trade for Tarik Skubal.

To start, it’s worth examining the Tigers’ positional needs. Like Alex Cora, Tigers skipper A.J. Hinch values defensive versatility and moved players around the field during the season. The chart below shows the Tigers’ and Red Sox’s 2025 positional splits, highlighting the top contributor at each position by fWAR ranking among qualified players. 

2025 Red Sox vs Tigers Positional Split Rankings
Red Sox	Position	Tigers
12th	Catcher	3rd
18th	1B	13th
25th	2B	8th
7th	3B	32nd
17th	SS	22nd
8th	LF	12th
3rd	CF	32nd
9th	RF	11th
12th	Rotation	7th
2nd	Bullpen	24th

First-time Gold Glove winner catcher Dillon Dingler (4.6 fWAR) is under control through 2030. First baseman Spencer Torkelson (2.3 fWAR) had a strong season and enters free agency in 2029. Second base is more unsettled; Gleyber Torres (2.6 fWAR) signed a $15 million, one-year deal and is now a free agent. The Red Sox utilized a revolving door at second base during the season, so the team doesn’t have a surplus to assist Detroit. Going into the 2026 season, there is uncertainty at third for both teams. The Tigers aggressively pursued Alex Bregman last offseason, offering a six-year, $171.5 million contract, but he signed a three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox. Now that Bregman has opted out, the Tigers are rumored to be gearing up for another run for him. Utility man Zack McKinstry (1.7 fWAR) generated the most production at shortstop. In the outfield, Riley Greene (2.3 fWAR) primarily manned left field. Center field stands out as a major area for upgrade, as Tigers center fielders ranked 28th overall in baseball. Though he’s primarily regarded as a shortstop, Javier Báez’s 0.7 fWAR led the eight players who appeared in center field in 2025. Wenceel Pérez (1.9 fWAR) and Kerry Carpenter (0.9 fWAR) were a productive platoon pair in right field, similar to Wilyer Abreu and Rob Refsnyder. Pérez, a defensive wizard, produced four Outs Above Average, while Carpenter dominated right-handed pitching (122 wRC+ split).

Trade Scenario

Gauging a potential Skubal trade is tough. Skubal enters free agency after the 2026 season, leaving him with one year of team control. A somewhat comparable trade occurred in February 2024, when the Orioles acquired then 29-year-old Corbin Burnes, who also had one year of remaining control. Though Burnes is a quality pitcher, he doesn’t reach Skubal’s ceiling and was a couple of years removed from his 2021 Cy Young Award season.

Mock Trade:

• Boston receives: LHP Tarik Skubal
• Detroit receives: LHP Connelly Early/Payton Tolle, OF Jarren Duran, and SS Franklin Arias (Baseball America’s No. 48 prospect)

Connelly Early or Payton Tolle help offset the loss of Skubal. Both have high ceilings and experience pitching in the majors. While Duran's performance took a step back in 2025, his 3.9 fWAR ranked 13th in baseball among position players. He’s posted seven OAA in center field over the past two seasons, and would be a significant upgrade for the Tigers.

Arias is a well-regarded right-handed shortstop, ranked fourth in the Red Sox’s system and 48th overall (Baseball America). Sox Prospects projects his major league debut in mid-2027, which coincides with the expiration of McKinstry’s contract. Outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia could be swapped for Arias, though adding another outfielder to the trade would be somewhat redundant. Fellow shortstop Marcelo Mayer could factor into a Skubal trade, though his trade value is diminished after his season ended prematurely with a wrist injury.

Since Skubal is a Scott Boras client, he is unlikely to sign an extension with his new team. Adding another layer of complexity to a Skubal trade is the potential for a lockout. MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire on December 1, 2026. If/when a lockout occurs, Skubal will likely be a free agent.

The 2021 Major League Baseball lockout lasted 99 days, spanning from December 2, 2021, to March 10, 2022. Four days before the start of the lockout, 11 players, including Javier Báez, Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien, signed a total of $1.9 billion of contracts. The final day set a record of $1.3 billion in new contracts. During lockouts, free agents aren’t allowed to negotiate with teams, but once the work stoppage ends, a flurry of free agent signings typically ensues. After the 2021 lockout ended, several notable players quickly signed contracts:

• 3/18/22: Kris Bryant signed a seven-year, $182 million contract with the Rockies
• 3/18/22: Freddie Freeman signed a six-year, $162 million contract with the Dodgers
• 3/22/22: Carlos Correa signed a three-year $105.3 million contract with the Twins
• 3/23/22: Trevor Story signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Red Sox

Alternatively, Sandy Alcantara is a controllable No. 2 starter in the trade market that wouldn’t cost as much as Skubal. Meanwhile, this year’s free agent starting pitching market is thin, “headlined” by Dylan Cease, Ranger Suarez, and Zac Gallen. Under Craig Breslow, free-agent pitching additions have been an area of weakness. FanGraphs’ 2024 “We Tried” Tracker shows the Red Sox pursued starters Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi, Shane Bieber, and Max Fried, but ultimately fell short.

Looking ahead, waiting to pursue Skubal in free agency would be a cleaner path for the Red Sox. By the time Skubal enters free agency, the team will have a general manager to oversee free agent contract negotiations. Moreover, the Red Sox are one of the few organizations that could afford Skubal’s projected $400 million contract without sacrificing a substantial package of young talent.

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[Hugh2]

It may be more realistic for Skubal to be traded at the deadline, but Detroit may think they can get more from him now.  I'm sure they will entertain offers but at this point it's speculation.  It's the beginning of the offseason and for every guy that gets traded there are 5 that were rumored to be on the trading block. 

But if he's legit available, the Sox would be dumb to not throw their hat in the ring on this. 

[moonslav59]

I would not give up anywhere near the suggested offer, here.

I'd hesitate to just give Duran or one from Tolle/Early, let alone two. Arias would not be needed.

I might offer Garcia, Clarke and Sandlin. Maybe Campbell and Phillips.

[mvp 78]

Early, Duran and Arias for Skubal? I'd do it if the Sox were given a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension or call the deal off. 

[Hugh2]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I would not give up anywhere near the suggested offer, here.

I'd hesitate to just give Duran or one from Tolle/Early, let alone two. Arias would not be needed.

I might offer Garcia, Clarke and Sandlin. Maybe Campbell and Phillips.

Lets reverse course.   Lets say the Red Sox had to trade Crochet. 

Would you rather have 2 legit high end young MLB players? like Roman Anthony/Payton Tolle?

Or would you rather have a basket of prospects, none top 50 guys like Clarke/Garcia/Sandlin/Phillips?

 

ADD: I'm in no way shape or form suggesting Anthony would or should be part of any trade for any player with one year of control.  That is not the point of my post at all. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Lets reverse course.   Lets say the Red Sox had to trade Crochet. 

Would you rather have 2 legit high end young MLB players? like Roman Anthony/Payton Tolle?

Or would you rather have a basket of prospects, none top 50 guys like Clarke/Garcia/Sandlin/Phillips?

 

ADD: I'm in no way shape or form suggesting Anthony would or should be part of any trade for any player with one year of control.  That is not the point of my post at all. 

moon loves the potpourri deals. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

moon loves the potpourri deals. 

I've always been a big believer that QTY never makes up for quality when dealing with high end players.  Trades like that just don't happen. 

Now, given Skubal only has one year of control left I think it's fair to say giving them players like Roman Anthony is not up for debate.  It ain't happening, but they can do better than 3 prospects in the 6-20 range.

Someone, somewhere is going to give up more impact players than that, and Detroit would take that deal. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I've always been a big believer that QTY never makes up for quality when dealing with high end players.  Trades like that just don't happen. 

Now, given Skubal only has one year of control left I think it's fair to say giving them players like Roman Anthony is not up for debate.  It ain't happening, but they can do better than 3 prospects in the 6-20 range.

Someone, somewhere is going to give up more impact players than that, and Detroit would take that deal. 

Also, they may not need Duran, but his value is high enough that they could spin him in a separate deal this offseason or at the deadline if they wanted to.

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Also, they may not need Duran, but his value is high enough that they could spin him in a separate deal this offseason or at the deadline if they wanted to.

Yup, I know everyone keeps name dropping Duran as the guy to go.  Personally I think they should be willing to move any of their outfielders not named Roman Anthony in the right deal but I get why Duran is the one whos name keeps getting brought up.  

I don't think it' s a slam dunk, but I'd be moderately surprised if he's on this team in spring 2026

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yup, I know everyone keeps name dropping Duran as the guy to go.  Personally I think they should be willing to move any of their outfielders not named Roman Anthony in the right deal but I get why Duran is the one whos name keeps getting brought up.  

I don't think it' s a slam dunk, but I'd be moderately surprised if he's on this team in spring 2026

I think he's the guy to go because he has the most value. Per reports, teams were calling about him and Rafaela, more than they were about Abreu. Maybe due to health, maybe not? 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he's the guy to go because he has the most value. Per reports, teams were calling about him and Rafaela, more than they were about Abreu. Maybe due to health, maybe not? 

One of the reasons why I'm not too keen on platooning certain positions is because we already have one in the outfield.  Abreu is a + 3 war player who pretty much sits vs. LHP.  If you get a good platoon partner for him then you can pretty much emulate all star production in one of your corners but you can only do so much of that on your roster. 

You probably find more teams that want 162 game guys than that, so it makes sense that more teams are in on Duran/Rafaela. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Early, Duran and Arias for Skubal? I'd do it if the Sox were given a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension or call the deal off. 

Same. In a heartbeat. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Lets reverse course.   Lets say the Red Sox had to trade Crochet. 

Would you rather have 2 legit high end young MLB players? like Roman Anthony/Payton Tolle?

Or would you rather have a basket of prospects, none top 50 guys like Clarke/Garcia/Sandlin/Phillips?

 

ADD: I'm in no way shape or form suggesting Anthony would or should be part of any trade for any player with one year of control.  That is not the point of my post at all. 

What I want is not what I get. If someone offers DET more than what I suggested, let them have him.

If a reasonable extension was part of the deal, I'd give the proposed offer in a flash.

Skubal has 1 year: Crochet has 6. Had we not extended Crochet, what I'd want for him would depend on the position the team is in: total rebuild (top prospects- some maybe far away) to still in a window (ML players or ML ready top prospects.) I'm not sure about DET, but that team w/o Skubal should be in total rebuild mode.

[JoeBrady]

Too much.  Duran's 3 * 4.7 = 14.1.  Skubal is 1 * 6.5 is fair.  If Skubal agreed to extend, we'd be back to the Pedro/Schilling days, and I'd throw in extra.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Too much.  Duran's 3 * 4.7 = 14.1.  Skubal is 1 * 6.5 is fair.  If Skubal agreed to extend, we'd be back to the Pedro/Schilling days, and I'd throw in extra.

Detroit is never going to part with Skubal for just Duran no matter what math you use. 

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Detroit is never going to part with Skubal for just Duran no matter what math you use. 

More like Early plus either Tolle or Arias plus another.  For one year of Skubal.  

Worth it if you can extend Skubal, but thats no guarantee since it is Skubal’s decision.  
 

If he won’t extend, it’s not exactly unheard of. The Yankees, Orioles and Cubs all made blockbuster deals for Soto, Burns, and Tucker respectively only to watch each reach free agency after one year. Probably not what any of them hoped for, but it shows it’s not as easy as filling out a few forms to extend a player…

[moonslav59]

No extension: no trade.

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Early, Duran and Arias for Skubal? I'd do it if the Sox were given a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension or call the deal off. 

I don’t see Skubal being traded before the season, and unless Detroit coughs up the money I don’t see anyway Skubal doesn’t hit the open Market. I also don’t see the Red Sox paying what it would take to sign Skubal.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No extension: no trade.

What is Skubal’s incentive to extend?  All he has to do is stay healthy and the bidding war is going to break records for pitchers.

And even if he misses all of 2026, he probably still gets a QO and at his age, serious bidding starts a year later…

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

What is Skubal’s incentive to extend?  All he has to do is stay healthy and the bidding war is going to break records for pitchers.

And even if he misses all of 2026, he probably still gets a QO and at his age, serious bidding starts a year later…

Exactly! Once Skubal hit the open market JH is not going to spend as much in that market as the BIG Boys would.

[Malcolm White]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

One of the reasons why I'm not too keen on platooning certain positions is because we already have one in the outfield.  Abreu is a + 3 war player who pretty much sits vs. LHP.  If you get a good platoon partner for him then you can pretty much emulate all star production in one of your corners but you can only do so much of that on your roster. 

You probably find more teams that want 162 game guys than that, so it makes sense that more teams are in on Duran/Rafaela. 

Abreu platoons because Cora platoons him.  He'll never get better sitting on the bench. Maybe if Ref retires Cora will realize Abreu is an everyday player.

Duran plays every day because Cora plays him every day, even with Duran's putrid .600 OPS vs. LHP. Abreu's was .676, btw, and Duran's is .620 career.  

Between that, and the delta in salary (Duran's $7.7M vs. Abreu's pre-arb $1M), Abreu's far superior defense and arm, plus better power, and I don't know why so many people think Duran is so much more valuable, esp. as a LF.  

Nothing against Duran, but I'd pump the brakes on thinking he's the centerpiece for a #2 starter without throwing in a lot extra. OTOH, a pre-arb Abreu makes ANY team's defense better for less than a mil a year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Skubal and Duran are both All-Stars.

Skubal has pitched two All-Star innings and given up two runs. Duran was the All-Star Game MVP!

Who else is Detroit giving us in that trade?

[notin]

23 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Skubal and Duran are both All-Stars.

Skubal has pitched two All-Star innings and given up two runs. Duran was the All-Star Game MVP!

Who else is Detroit giving us in that trade?

Hold out for Riley Greene and the rights to all Motown proceeds…

[notin]

35 minutes ago, Malcolm White said:

Abreu platoons because Cora platoons him.  He'll never get better sitting on the bench. Maybe if Ref retires Cora will realize Abreu is an everyday player.

Duran plays every day because Cora plays him every day, even with Duran's putrid .600 OPS vs. LHP. Abreu's was .676, btw, and Duran's is .620 career.  

Between that, and the delta in salary (Duran's $7.7M vs. Abreu's pre-arb $1M), Abreu's far superior defense and arm, plus better power, and I don't know why so many people think Duran is so much more valuable, esp. as a LF.  

Nothing against Duran, but I'd pump the brakes on thinking he's the centerpiece for a #2 starter without throwing in a lot extra. OTOH, a pre-arb Abreu makes ANY team's defense better for less than a mil a year.

Duran for a #2 starter as a standalone deal makes no sense. Any team acquiring Duran wants to get better now. Teams trying to get better now do not deal their #2 starter.  A third team is a necessity…

[Old Red]

6 hours ago, Malcolm White said:

Abreu platoons because Cora platoons him.  He'll never get better sitting on the bench. Maybe if Ref retires Cora will realize Abreu is an everyday player.

Duran plays every day because Cora plays him every day, even with Duran's putrid .600 OPS vs. LHP. Abreu's was .676, btw, and Duran's is .620 career.  

Between that, and the delta in salary (Duran's $7.7M vs. Abreu's pre-arb $1M), Abreu's far superior defense and arm, plus better power, and I don't know why so many people think Duran is so much more valuable, esp. as a LF.  

Nothing against Duran, but I'd pump the brakes on thinking he's the centerpiece for a #2 starter without throwing in a lot extra. OTOH, a pre-arb Abreu makes ANY team's defense better for less than a mil a year.

Nobody knows what Abreu would do playing everyday, but there is only one way to find out. Duran is not going to be center piece for just everyone,but just one of the pieces. I think Duran would have had more value last off season than he does now.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

I don’t see Skubal being traded before the season, and unless Detroit coughs up the money I don’t see anyway Skubal doesn’t hit the open Market. I also don’t see the Red Sox paying what it would take to sign Skubal.

Try new glasses. I have some rose tinted ones you can borrow.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

What is Skubal’s incentive to extend?  

None. That's why this is all dreaming.

No way I'd give up what some are suggesting for one year.

Our window looks 3-4 years wide, to me... maybe longer.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Try new glasses. I have some rose tinted ones you can borrow.

The same kind that JH wears?

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Nobody knows what Abreu would do playing everyday, but there is only one way to find out. Duran is not going to be center piece for anyone, but just one of the pieces. I think Duran would have had more value last off season than he does now.

Duran can be a very significant "centerpiece," but more will be needed to get a real gem back.

Look what Taylor Ward brought back, yesterday. Ward turns 34 before the season begins. Last 3 years:

.241 BA (.323 OBP)

.443 SLG (.767 OPS)

14 SBs

Negative dWAR every season in MLB

Duran:

.276 BA (.339 OBP)

.471 SLG (.810 OPS)

82 SBs

Plus dWAR over 3 years but negative 3 yrs ago.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran can be a very significant "centerpiece," but more will be needed to get a real gem back.

Look what Taylor Ward brought back, yesterday. Ward turns 34 before the season begins. Last 3 years:

.241 BA (.323 OBP)

.443 SLG (.767 OPS)

14 SBs

Negative dWAR every season in MLB

Duran:

.276 BA (.339 OBP)

.471 SLG (.810 OPS)

82 SBs

Plus dWAR over 3 years but negative 3 yrs ago.

Taylor ward turns 32 in a few weeks, and hit 36 bombs with 103 RBI last year, which probably is enticing to Baltimore, which gave up a often injured SP.🤔