A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Larry Cook]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Someone f***ing pliable.

An internal hire then? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

to save from having to spend more money a few years from now. If your big purchase is a coupon book, are you really spending?

I'm a master couponer, but you are right.

The Crochet extension was necessary to make the deal worth it.

The thing is, even if people want to say Crochet & Anthony's extensions equal Devers, we still need to use the savings from Buehler, Gio, Ref, Wilson, May, Matz & Lowe.

Bottom line: we have $35-45M to spend up to the line and $55-65M to go to the second line.

I'm not going to show how maybe we could add some more budget room by trading Yoshida or Hicks, but including Duran ($7.7M AAV) Campbell ($7.5M) or Rafaela (6.3) or Bello (9.2) could gives us more wiggle room, if we make it tight.

If you go with $60M, we could get Bregman or Bichette PLUS Alonso, and make a trade that does not add salary for a SP2- like Campbell + others for Ryan.

This is not pie-in-the-sky thinking, but in reality, I'm not sure we are even considering going this bold. I'm pretty certain we ain't goin' Drewski Bold.

[moonslav59]

More changes today than I expected.

No more Lowe, Bernardino, Murphy, Winckowski & Hoppe.

Added Sandlin, Drohan & Uberstine to the 40.

Added some prospects, all low level.

Now, we wait to see who might be selected Rule 5, and who gets added/subtracted via trade, DFA'd or added by signings.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

More changes today than I expected.

No more Lowe, Bernardino, Murphy, Winckowski & Hoppe.

Added Sandlin, Drohan & Uberstine to the 40.

Added some prospects, all low level.

Now, we wait to see who might be selected Rule 5, and who gets added/subtracted via trade, DFA'd or added by signings.

Seems like when I said we should trade Duran to the royals for prospects, I lot of people said we have arrived and do not need anymore prospects. 
 

I am glad bres-slow still values prospects 

[Hitch]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

More changes today than I expected.

No more Lowe, Bernardino, Murphy, Winckowski & Hoppe.

Added Sandlin, Drohan & Uberstine to the 40.

Added some prospects, all low level.

Now, we wait to see who might be selected Rule 5, and who gets added/subtracted via trade, DFA'd or added by signings.

I mentioned in the other thread that I thought we might see some surprising trades yesterday, I didn't expect the surprise to be Bernie. I will miss Bernie, I liked him. The moves make sense though. And makes me thing we'll be adding some more to that bullpen after all. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

I mentioned in the other thread that I thought we might see some surprising trades yesterday, I didn't expect the surprise to be Bernie. I will miss Bernie, I liked him. The moves make sense though. And makes me thing we'll be adding some more to that bullpen after all. 

If we re-sign Matz, the Bernie trade makes more sense, to me.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Seems like when I said we should trade Duran to the royals for prospects, I lot of people said we have arrived and do not need anymore prospects. 
I am glad bres-slow still values prospects 

I think this was more about making room for the 3 guys we wanted to protect.

We basically swapped out prospects in danger of being selected for prospects that are far from Rule 5 consideration. We did gain prospects though, so you are right. We got rid of 3 borderline players plus Hoppe and added 4 prospects.

Time will tell.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we re-sign Matz, the Bernie trade makes more sense, to me.

Bernie was an up and down guy who was out of options. His bb rate got up too high last year (bottom 6th percentile). I think Brezzz is trying to move on from guys who give free passes.

Highest bb rates that were still on the 40 man at year end:

Guerrero - gone

Moran - most likely the next DFA

Hicks - stuck with

Murphy - gone

Hendricks - gone

Bernardino - gone

Tolle - young, will work with

Winckowski - gone

The guy with one of the best bb rates, Criswell, was given a surprising contract.

 

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Someone f***ing pliable.

Give this guy the Fenway replica!

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm a master couponer, but you are right.

The Crochet extension was necessary to make the deal worth it.

The thing is, even if people want to say Crochet & Anthony's extensions equal Devers, we still need to use the savings from Buehler, Gio, Ref, Wilson, May, Matz & Lowe.

Bottom line: we have $35-45M to spend up to the line and $55-65M to go to the second line.

I'm not going to show how maybe we could add some more budget room by trading Yoshida or Hicks, but including Duran ($7.7M AAV) Campbell ($7.5M) or Rafaela (6.3) or Bello (9.2) could gives us more wiggle room, if we make it tight.

If you go with $60M, we could get Bregman or Bichette PLUS Alonso, and make a trade that does not add salary for a SP2- like Campbell + others for Ryan.

This is not pie-in-the-sky thinking, but in reality, I'm not sure we are even considering going this bold. I'm pretty certain we ain't goin' Drewski Bold.

I was having fun, I dont actually think we'll get one of my favorite players in Corbin Carroll, even though I can make a better argument than you think about why Cedanne + Roman for CC actually works for both teams, but if I start pounding the table on any trade involving RA being sent, Ill turn myself into a villain here.  And Im not trying to heel turn at the moment (my character isnt stale yet, and yes I watch too much wrestling).

Honestly, though, the biggest issue with your plan is that if they trade for Ryan, theyll prob extend him vs keep him cheap for 2 years.  But with 2 years left on his deal , might push down the AAV on an extension.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Bernie was an up and down guy who was out of options. His bb rate got up too high last year (bottom 6th percentile). I think Brezzz is trying to move on from guys who give free passes.

Highest bb rates that were still on the 40 man at year end:

Guerrero - gone

Moran - most likely the next DFA

Hicks - stuck with

Murphy - gone

Hendricks - gone

Bernardino - gone

Tolle - young, will work with

Winckowski - gone

The guy with one of the best bb rates, Criswell, was given a surprising contract.

 

Hoppe's 12% BB rate fits your point, too.

[moonslav59]

Before any additions/subtractions are made, this is what our roster looks like. I added 3 blank lines for acquisitions I feel are near certain. (Minors on 40)

C: Narvaez & Wong

1B: ______ & Casas (IL?)(T Gray)

2B: Mayer & Romy (DHam, Grissom)

SS: Story (Sogard)

3B: ______ (Eaton) Mayer

LF: Duran, Anthony & Yoshida (Campbell)

CF: Rafaela & Duran (Garcia)

RF: Abreu & Anthony

DH: Yoshida

SP: Crochet, _____, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford (Harrison, Dobbins, Early, Tolle, Perales, Uberstine, Drohan) Houck to 60 Day IL, soon after opening day.

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Criswell, Hicks, Moran, Fitts (Kelly, Sandlin)

To be DFA'd or traded to make room for additions:

1. Grissom (Sogard or Eaton)

2. T Gray

3. Drohan, Uberstine, Moran or Kelly

4. Hicks (just a dream some of us had)

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Hoppe's 12% BB rate fits your point, too.

I only looked into bb rate once I checked Bernie's statcast. Then I looked at the leader page on FanGraphs and Brezzz cleared the deck of the walk leaders. 

[drewski6]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I only looked into bb rate once I checked Bernie's statcast. Then I looked at the leader page on FanGraphs and Brezzz cleared the deck of the walk leaders. 

Thats another good example of old-school philosphies that I still carry. No walkers outta the pen. That and theres value in a designated pinch runner.

But Im completely over a lot of old-school philosophies like "Ks are the worst, and need to be minimized" and "platoon players are fatally flawed"

[drewski6]

Giving away Bernie (we did we didnt trade him becaus the guy we got is eligible for rule 5 and wont get protected, vs trading for a guy who is not yet eligible)

The more I looked into it, the more fine with it I was. I like most rooted for Bernadonuts makes me gonuts. But hes 33 and his peripherals did fall off a cliff last year and we needed the 40 man roster spot.  Initially surprising cast-off that gets less surprising the more you look into it.

I hope he wins his arbitration case and gets 1.2M vs 1M, and I hope he pitches well enough to get a decent arb 2 raise next year.  Cuz I wanna see him make his nut.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I only looked into bb rate once I checked Bernie's statcast. Then I looked at the leader page on FanGraphs and Brezzz cleared the deck of the walk leaders. 

Bernie's BB% rose:

8.3>9.7>11.6 w BOS

[drewski6]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Seems like when I said we should trade Duran to the royals for prospects, I lot of people said we have arrived and do not need anymore prospects. 
 

I am glad bres-slow still values prospects 

Theres middle ground between:

A) Not wanting a team with holes at the ML level to use our best trade chip for prospects when we've had a frustrating last half-decade and finally look like we are turning a corner

and

B) Not valuing prospects.

We've been stuck in mediocrity for 7 years while we waited patiently for the next core to come together, but now its time to compete.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

We've been stuck in mediocrity for 7 years while we waited patiently for the next core to come together, but now its time to compete.

In 2019, they weren't waiting for the next core, they just had a WS hangover. They punted on 2020 after the Mookie trade. They made it to the ALCS in 2021, which is better than mediocre. Last year, the team was better than mediocre. You could argue 3 years of mediocrity maybe? From 22-24, they were in the holding pattern of not knowing if they were a competitive team or a rebuilding team. I think those were the mediocre years. 

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In 2019, they weren't waiting for the next core, they just had a WS hangover. They punted on 2020 after the Mookie trade. They made it to the ALCS in 2021, which is better than mediocre. Last year, the team was better than mediocre. You could argue 3 years of mediocrity maybe? From 22-24, they were in the holding pattern of not knowing if they were a competitive team or a rebuilding team. I think those were the mediocre years. 

Those three years saw an attempt to deepen the 40 man and farm. Hardly any top prospects were traded, and some of the ones that were traded were for other prospects or recent grads.

The trades made yesterday were just shuffling the deck. No top players were traded. No top prospects were added to the system.

[moonslav59]

So, with all the shuffling made, recently, here is rough draft of the 40 man pitching depth chart.

21 Pitchers on the 40:

SP: Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Fitts, Early, Tolle, Perales, Uberstine, Drohan

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Criswell, Hicks, Moran, Kelly, Sandlin (converted SP'ers)

Houck to 60 Day IL, after season begins.

Some non 40 man roster pitchers projected by level:

AAA: Jack Anderson, Hayden Mullins, Noah Song, Hobie Harris, O Berrios

AA: Holobetz, Clarke, Paez, Rivera, Wehunt, Rogers/ Wu-Yelland, N Dean, Sena, Sansone, Adams, McShane, Ingrassia, Carlson

A+: Fajardo, Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Aita/ Tyagart. Neely, Ehrlicher, Foutch, Futrell

A-: Travieso, J Bello, Morgan, Patton, Finley, Brown/ Mayers, Ruiz, Gartrell

[moonslav59]

The everyday 40 man roster:

(18 on the current 40)

C: Narvaez & Wong

1B: Casas, T Gray

2B: Romy, DHam, Grissom

SS: Story, Sogard

3B: Mayer

LF: Anthony, Duran, Campbell

CF: Rafaela, Garcia

RF: Abreu, Eaton

DH: Yoshida

Non 40 minor league depth:

AAA: C- Delay & Rosario, 1B-Hickey, 2B- Ferguson, SS- McDonough, 3B Romero, OF- Castro, B Ward, Sikes

AA-: Jo garcia, Brannon, Alcantara, Liendo, Arias, Bleis, YRod, T Miller

A+: Salazar, R Hernandez, M White, Godbout, Nunez, Martin, N Taylor, J Gonzales, Cespedes

A-: Heyman, Azocar, Fermin

[vegasbob]

On 11/18/2025 at 10:41 AM, drewski6 said:

In their defense, it is remarkably strange how Hicks can throw 105 mph and be so bad

There is a reason, it is called pitching , not "throwing'

[moonslav59]

How about this?

Mayer (BTV 56) + Eyanson (6) For K Marte (61)

Rafaela (31)+ Zanetello (2) + Paez (3) For Lodolo (31)

Sign Alonso, Suarez & Matz 

______________________

1. L Anthony CF

2. S KMarte 2B

3. R Suarez 3B

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Duran LF

7. R Story SS

8. L Yoshida DH/R Romy

9. R Narvaez C

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford/Dobbins/Harrison/Early/Tolle

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Hicks, Criswell, Moran

 

[moonslav59]

Sox avoid arb w Wong at $1.4M.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox avoid arb w Wong at $1.4M.

Chapman credits Wong with fixing chapman’s delivery to keep pitches from drifting over the heart of the plate!!  
 

good signing 

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Chapman credits Wong with fixing chapman’s delivery to keep pitches from drifting over the heart of the plate!!  
good signing 

There is a lot of value in thigs catchers do not captured by stats or metrics, but if you look closely, you can see how Wong got good results from the pitchers he caught.

Crochet

1.74 w Wong (.597 OPSA in 31 IP)

2.74 w Narvaez (.620 in 174)

Bello

3.07 w Narvaez (.790 in 29)

3.41 w Wong (.643 in 137)

Giolito

2.29 w Wong (.614 in 20)

3.59 w Narvaez (..696 in 125)

Buehler

4.95 w Wong (.715 in 20)

5.56 w Narvaez (.845 in 92)

All of these sample sizes were very unbalanced, but Wong led in 7 of the 8 stats, among our top 4 IP starters.

Whitlock: better w Narvaez in both stats

Weissert: better w Wong in both

Chapman: split stat leader

Dobbins: split leader

Bernardino: way better w Narvaez in both

Wilson: better w Narvaez in both

Fitts: better w Wong in both

The second group is pretty even: 8 for Narvaez and 6 for Wong. (Those with 60+ IP, it was 4-4.)

8 pitchers w 60+ IP: Wong 11- Narvaez 5 leads.

11 pitchers with 45+ IP: Wong 13- Narvaez 9

[moonslav59]

Nobody really jumped out at me from all the announced non tenders, today.

Anybody see a possible match?

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/18/2025 at 6:59 AM, moonslav59 said:

I could be wrong, but I do not think Cora ever asked him to play 1B, and Brez merely said we need you there.

Even the concept of "asking" is off base. You should just have to say, "The team needs you at 1B, so start practicing to play there, soon." I doubt that was said.

I didn't like the way Devers handled things but I also feel the Sox somewhat mistreated him too by bringing in Bregman to take his 3B spot. It will look even worse if Bregman is not here next year.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody really jumped out at me from all the announced non tenders, today.

Anybody see a possible match?

I haven't even looked at the list but if there is anyone decent on it that will take a 1 yr deal or coming off a significant injury JH will tell Brez to be all in over it.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I didn't like the way Devers handled things but I also feel the Sox somewhat mistreated him too by bringing in Bregman to take his 3B spot. It will look even worse if Bregman is not here next year.

How is signing the best player left mistreating the worst defensive 3Bman in MLB?

Sure, they handled the communication badly, but the signing was perfectly fine. If Devers is afraid of other good players on the team, then he's the issue. (Note: I don't think he was or is. He just hated how they handled it. So did I.)