A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

No love for Pete Alonso, who signed a week later?

My bad. I guess I felt like he was going to NYM all along, but we probably could have gotten him if we went large and LONG.

The issue was JH's inability to go large enough and long enough on anyone before those two.

[notin]

34 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

As far as I know none of our internal options come with much experience.
 

And all our internal options need a little more time in the minors to tighten up secondaries so they can be quality contributors in Boston by September!!!! 

First of all, I get the concern of not having experience.  But at some point, they do need to get it.

All of our internal options?  Ok disregarding thr injured Houck, and let’s also table Drohan and Uberstine, because they are low ceiling depth.  But I would say the ones that definitely need work in the minors include Tolle and Perales.  And Fitts probably benefits from a reduced role, like a bullpen role.  That leaves Early, Dobbins and Harrison as ready for the rotation.  But I do question the ceiling of Harrison and (especially) Dobbins.  
 

But Early?  I’m not so sure…

[Randy Red Sox]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

At that point in the off season, he was the only one that could make us a playoff contender. It was an overpay but worth it.

We should not have gotten to that point of desperation.

We better not repeat that scenario this off season.

 

I disagree that Bregman was worth 40 million this year.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

First of all, I get the concern of not having experience.  But at some point, they do need to get it.

All of our internal options?  Ok disregarding thr injured Houck, and let’s also table Drohan and Uberstine, because they are low ceiling depth.  But I would say the ones that definitely need work in the minors include Tolle and Perales.  And Fitts probably benefits from a reduced role, like a bullpen role.  That leaves Early, Dobbins and Harrison as ready for the rotation.  But I do question the ceiling of Harrison and (especially) Dobbins.  
But Early?  I’m not so sure…

Agreed.

I'm not sure anyone can feel confident enough to pencil in anyone to the 2 or 3 slot, let alone the 4-5 slots. Having so many choices improves the odds we end up with 5 decent SP'ers, but there are a few issues with that. Here are but a few:

1. We likely need better than "decnet" to advance farther than we did in 2025, and we are down our 2nd best SP'er in GIO before we even get started in 2026.

2. We may end up finding a better than decent 5, but if it takes us trial and error and until August to settle on the right 5, we may be too far behind to catch up.

3. We really need to count on injuries and or regressions, and having the depth we have now seems to address this, but it looked like we had that covered in 2025 and still ended up trading for DMay and relying on 2 rookies over the last 2 months of the season.

4. Even Bello seems questionable as a number 4, but he will likely be our #3, assuming we do add a #2. We may end up needing Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Early or someone else to be the #3, so that would make filling #4 and #5 that much harder.

We felt so confident last year we traded Priester. For much of the season our top 3 SP'ers looked as good or better than most other teams top 3, but then Gio and Bello sputtered near the end. That should be a lesson to learn. The more #2-3 types you have the better. Loading up on 4-5's is a lot harder to make work.

Here is the order we used our SP'ers in 2025:

Crochet

Houck (later on IL)

Buehler (later DFA'd)

Fitts (Giolito on IL) Later demoted

Newcomb (Crawford on IL) Later traded away

Dobbins (Doubleheader) Later on IL

Bello

Giolito

Bernardino (opener)

Criswell (1 start) Later demoted & IL

D May (Later DFA'd)

Tolle

Early

Harrison

De Leon (1 GS at end of season)

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I disagree that Bregman was worth 40 million this year.

Well, it does sound contradictory to say he was an overpay but worth it, but that is my position.

Overpays are needed, at times.

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Tactics available to acquire starting pitching:

Option 1 - try to compete against the Mets, dodgers and Yankees for premium free agent pitching?  Good luck with that option!!! Limited competition from other teams, but the teams competing are monsters with deep pockets!
 

1- I think Dodgers/ Yankees will not be players in Free agents for Starting Pitchers: dodgers- already have Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Sasaki, oh and what about Ohtani? Yankees- Cole, Fried, Rodon and Schlittler. I do think we will have competition for free agents, but not from those 2.
 

2- It’s really bothering me how we have tiered down, to where we are trying to figure out what fits financially, not wanting to get stuck with long contracts….. not what makes our team best possible right now. Somehow ownership has forgotten we are the Boston F*cking Red Sox. Sad deal. 

 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

1- I think Dodgers/ Yankees will not be players in Free agents for Starting Pitchers: dodgers- already have Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Sasaki, oh and what about Ohtani? Yankees- Cole, Fried, Rodon and Schlittler. I do think we will have competition for free agents, but not from those 2.
 

2- It’s really bothering me how we have tiered down, to where we are trying to figure out what fits financially, not wanting to get stuck with long contracts….. not what makes our team best possible right now. Somehow ownership has forgotten we are the Boston F*cking Red Sox. Sad deal. 

 

I'm not really impressed by the 2026 FA SP'er class. I realize signing one means we don't have to trade major pieces or prospects to get a solid #2 SP'er, but most are older and or coming off frequent injuries or an off year or two.

I like Lodolo & Ryan more than Cease, King, Valdez, Gallen and other FAs.

I suggest we use the budget for Offense and trade capital for a #2 SP.

[moonslav59]

Top xFIP FA SP'ers in 2025

79 Valdez (18th)

86 Cease (22nd)

88 R Suarez (26th)

92 M Kelly & Bassitt (35th)

Possible Trade options:

72 Nate (7th) 1st in ERA-

74 Sale (9th) 11th in ERA-

75 S Gray (12th)

87 Ryan & Bubic (23rd) Bubic was 8th in ERA-/Ryan 36th

88 Lodolo & E Cabrera (27th) Lodolo 25th in ERA-/ECab 37th

91 Gore (34th)

93 Peralta (39th) 14th in ERA-

 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I disagree that Bregman was worth 40 million this year.

He wasn’t, but if he goes into a serious decline you lose a lot more in value in the long run if you had signed him to 6-7 years prior instead.

thats the point of overpaying for less years

[UtahSox]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not really impressed by the 2026 FA SP'er class. I realize signing one means we don't have to trade major pieces or prospects to get a solid #2 SP'er, but most are older and or coming off frequent injuries or an off year or two.

I like Lodolo & Ryan more than Cease, King, Valdez, Gallen and other FAs.

I suggest we use the budget for Offense and trade capital for a #2 SP.

Agree I like FA top bats vs FA top arms… coincidentally I think there are more quality TOTR arms with a couple of years control available for trade, than big bats available via trade. My question about Joe Ryan is if the twins didn’t like our prospect package for him in July, do we really think we’re players now? What about Sandy Alcantara missed 2024 W/ TJ’s, started looking really good at tail end of 2025. With Woodruff back in fold for Brewers, is Peralta more expendable now?
 

To take the next step I think RS have to go into ST w/ minimum addition of 4 players

2 out of this group:

Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman, Tucker, Bichette, Seager, Marte, Willson Contreras. 
 

1 in this group 1aSP via trade/ Free agency:

Ryan, Skubal, Alcantara, Gore, peralta, Valdez, Cease. (greene is not available)

and 

1 out of the next tier down:

Gallen, Kelly, King, Ranger Suarez, Verlander, Bassitt, Giolito, Edward Cabrera, Senga, Keller maybe more!

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Agree I like FA top bats vs FA top arms… coincidentally I think there are more quality TOTR arms with a couple of years control available for trade, than big bats available via trade. My question about Joe Ryan is if the twins didn’t like our prospect package for him in July, do we really think we’re players now? What about Sandy Alcantara missed 2024 W/ TJ’s, started looking really good at tail end of 2025. With Woodruff back in fold for Brewers, is Peralta more expendable now?
 

To take the next step I think RS have to go into ST w/ minimum addition of 4 players

2 out of this group:

Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman, Tucker, Bichette, Seager, Marte, Willson Contreras. 
 

1 in this group 1aSP via trade/ Free agency:

Ryan, Skubal, Alcantara, Gore, peralta, Valdez, Cease. (greene is not available)

and 

1 out of the next tier down:

Gallen, Kelly, King, Ranger Suarez, Verlander, Bassitt, Giolito, Edward Cabrera, Senga, Keller maybe more!

I'd go like this:

1 from Alonso, K Marte or Schwarber

1 from Ryan, Lodolo, Ragans or maybe a smaller one year players like Peralta or Bubic.

1 from Bregman, Bichette, Suarez or Polanco.

 

[JoeBrady]

On 11/15/2025 at 11:27 AM, notin said:

Alcantara is an injured mess.  While the Sox have the depth to cover him, I can understand passing.

Both Singer and Gore have been worth 7.3 fWAR over the past 3 years, tied for 42nd in MLB for pitchers with 150 IP or more in that time.  Singer might be the dirt cheap unsexy name that is actually fairly underrated.  Only one year is an issue, however.  And despite feeling he might be underappreciated, not sure how I feel about an extension…

Alcantara is not injured.  He made 31 GS last and finished very well.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/17/2025 at 11:18 AM, moonslav59 said:

Nor I, but I'd be happy if we sign Alonso for $180M/7. Less would be better but not possible. More would be okay, because we need a big power bat, very badly.

If he wasn't getting that last year, he won't get it this year, being one year older.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/17/2025 at 9:28 PM, Randy Red Sox said:

we will probably just re-sign Lowe on a 1 year deal

Almost no chance.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/18/2025 at 10:45 AM, moonslav59 said:

May I ask this, if we don't add a major bat to replace Devers, not to mention Bregman, will you think this was some sort of sham by leading us to believe they would replace him In kind?

All we can do is hope for them to spend top the limit, and hopefully beyond.  How they spend the salary is not part of the informal fan/ownership agreement.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/18/2025 at 11:42 AM, Old Red said:

The Red Sox were never a better team last year without Raffy’s bat in the lineup. Could Raffy have been a BIG help in the postseason last year against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium? Yes, Yes, and Yes.🙈

We played .500 with Devers and .589 since the trade.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/18/2025 at 12:12 PM, mvp 78 said:

They wanted Hicks! I think they could have done the trade and not have taken on Hicks if they wanted to. 

I find that hard to believe.  Care to supply some support?

[JoeBrady]

On 11/21/2025 at 9:14 AM, moonslav59 said:

There is a lot of value in thigs catchers do not captured by stats or metrics, but if you look closely, you can see how Wong got good results from the pitchers he caught.

BR has Narvaez with a .686 OPSa and Wong with a .693.  You could do a weighted-average to get more precise, but I think Wong will handily out-perform his salary.

[JoeBrady]

21 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Does Casas “nut up” and become a locker room cancer if Wong starts getting innings at first base???

There is no chance Wong plays 1B next year.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I disagree that Bregman was worth 40 million this year.

$31.7M.  We live in a world that recognizes deferrals.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

BR has Narvaez with a .686 OPSa and Wong with a .693.  You could do a weighted-average to get more precise, but I think Wong will handily out-perform his salary.

He's making peanuts.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Almost no chance.

Never count out JH & Co.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, it does sound contradictory to say he was an overpay but worth it, but that is my position.

Overpays are needed, at times.

It wasn't an overpayment.  $32M for a one-year commitment and making the playoffs is easy money.

[moonslav59]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

It wasn't an overpayment.  $32M for a one-year commitment and making the playoffs is easy money.

I think he was worth it, so saying "overpay" needs context. IMO, all major FA signings are overpays, on paper, and most turn out that was in reality.

Yes, it's $32M, but that deferred money still counts and is applied to the Lux tax those years.

[moonslav59]

It's pretty amazing how quickly the roster has morphed into Brez's team. While many added to the 40 man roster were in the system before Brez, these are some eye-opening facts:

12 players have been added to the 40 since the 2025 season started.

21 players were added after the 2024 season began.

27 players were not on the 40 on the 2023 season's final day.

Only 13 played on the 2022 team! (One is Houck and will not play in 2026, which means maybe 12 players from 2022 play on the 2026 team.)

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think he was worth it, so saying "overpay" needs context. IMO, all major FA signings are overpays, on paper, and most turn out that was in reality.

Yes, it's $32M, but that deferred money still counts and is applied to the Lux tax those years.

It doesn't.  We have -0- future CBT obligations for him.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's pretty amazing how quickly the roster has morphed into Brez's team. While many added to the 40 man roster were in the system before Brez, these are some eye-opening facts:

12 players have been added to the 40 since the 2025 season started.

21 players were added after the 2024 season began.

27 players were not on the 40 on the 2023 season's final day.

Only 13 played on the 2022 team! (One is Houck and will not play in 2026, which means maybe 12 players from 2022 play on the 2026 team.)

Good analysis.  I'd be curious to see how quickly other teams turn over.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It doesn't.  We have -0- future CBT obligations for him.

Cool. I thought we did!

cots has us paying $2M/yr for Devers going forward.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Good analysis.  I'd be curious to see how quickly other teams turn over.

While many added to the 40 were in the Sox system before Brez arrived, a significant portion were acquired by Brez:

16 on the 40:

Weissert & Fitts (Dugo)

Slaten (Ammons)

Grissom (Sale)

Crochet (Teel & package)

Narvaez (Elmer Rod)

Harrison & Hicks (Devers)

Moran (Gasper)

Sandlin (Schreiber)

T Gray (Guerrero)

Romy (waivers)

Tolle (draft)

FA: Chapman, Sandoval, Criswell, Eaton (MiLBFA)

soxprospects.com's prospect rankings (Brez guys)

1. Tolle (on 40)

4. Witherspoon

8. Clarke

9. Gonzalez

11. Fajardo

12. Soto

13. Sandlin (on 40)

14. Phillips

15. Eyanson

16. Godbout

21. Holobetz

23. Travieso

27. Azocar

28. Delzine

29. Ramos

30. Rivas

Cason, Aita, YRod, Nunez, Tygart, M White, Jo Rod, Rivera, Neeley, Foutch, B Morgan, Primera, M Martin, Jo Bello, Fermin, Ogando, Patton, Bravo

[Larry Cook]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

While many added to the 40 were in the Sox system before Brez arrived, a significant portion were acquired by Brez:

16 on the 40:

Weissert & Fitts (Dugo)

Slaten (Ammons)

Grissom (Sale)

Crochet (Teel & package)

Narvaez (Elmer Rod)

Harrison & Hicks (Devers)

Moran (Gasper)

Sandlin (Schreiber)

T Gray (Guerrero)

Romy (waivers)

Tolle (draft)

FA: Chapman, Sandoval, Criswell, Eaton (MiLBFA)

soxprospects.com's prospect rankings (Brez guys)

1. Tolle (on 40)

4. Witherspoon

8. Clarke

9. Gonzalez

11. Fajardo

12. Soto

13. Sandlin (on 40)

14. Phillips

15. Eyanson

16. Godbout

21. Holobetz

23. Travieso

27. Azocar

28. Delzine

29. Ramos

30. Rivas

Cason, Aita, YRod, Nunez, Tygart, M White, Jo Rod, Rivera, Neeley, Foutch, B Morgan, Primera, M Martin, Jo Bello, Fermin, Ogando, Patton, Bravo

I call dibs on azocar being the next guy to take a leap up the rankings