A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d rather have both Hicks and Yoshida over what’s left of Arenado.  If they sign Sox need someone to fill in at 3b, Romy Gonzalez is already here and a much better option than Arenado’s waning years…

Arenado was thought to be a mild bounceback candidate going into '25, but he kept sliding. Sox would be dumb to buy into him at this point. Exit velo, xWOBA, barrel %, hard hit % are all bottom 12th percentile. Back to back awful years from him. Not sure I'd trade Hicks for him straight up. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Arenado was thought to be a mild bounceback candidate going into '25, but he kept sliding. Sox would be dumb to buy into him at this point. Exit velo, xWOBA, barrel %, hard hit % are all bottom 12th percentile. Back to back awful years from him. Not sure I'd trade Hicks for him straight up. 

By “bounce back candidate”, did they mean he was a good candidate to bounce the ball back to the mound one time in every four plate appearances?

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

By “bounce back candidate”, did they mean he was a good candidate to bounce the ball back to the mound one time in every four plate appearances?

Good hard hit rate and pull air in '23. Thought he'd figure it out in '25. LOL nope. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

okay, but you are focusing on his balancing trade not his main trade, which is now adjusted to reflect your observation thta az needs more than just bello for marte

I responded to both trades.

If I'm trading Bello & Garcia/Perales for K Marte, he'd come here not to CIN.

I'd then try a separate trade for Hunter Greene (or settle on Lodolo) which might include Duran or Abreu, Garcia or Perales (the one not traded) plus more, if it's Greene.

Even if we get K Marte, I'd want another top 4 batter from free agency.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I responded to both trades.

If I'm trading Bello & Garcia/Perales for K Marte, he'd come here not to CIN.

I'd then try a separate trade for Hunter Greene (or settle on Lodolo) which might include Duran or Abreu, Garcia or Perales (the one not traded) plus more, if it's Greene.

Even if we get K Marte, I'd want another top 4 batter from free agency.

Marte is the best hitting second baseman in the league, and hes more than adequate defensively.  Hes a stud.

But if I can get him or Greene, im getting greene.  I think hes a top 5 pitcher in the world in 2026. This was his first year throwing a splitter and hes still refining it.  And look at Guasman and Ohtani.  A good splitter is so unhittable right now, and while his splitter is his third pitch, I think that it continues to get better.

Greene throws 99 and can locate to any of 4 quadrants with his heater.  The batting average against on his 4-seam and slider are under .200.  He backdoors the slider to lefties. He recently ditched his curve for the split.

Dont forget cincy ballpark makes arizona look like oakland!

I do hear you though. Its hard to see a trade where Marte goes elsewhere when we could so use him. But McClain is a good buy low guy.  He was an absolute boss in college and he really struggled last year.

[drewski6]

Lodolo is awesome, but hes not close to Greene.

[drewski6]

I would love to get lodolo and marte or greene and marte or even mcclain or even all 4 lol

Mayer, password, bello, duran, sandlin, clarke, tolle in a 3 teamer for greene, lodolo, marte, mcclain.

[moonslav59]

According to SPOTRAC, these are the AAV market values of the besteveryday players on the FA Market:

(Actually, Polanco is listed as player option)

40 Tucker

30 Bellinger

29 Alonso

28 Bregman

25 Schwarber

23 Bichette 

15 Naylor, Suarez, Polanco

14 Gurriel. Arraez, Torres

13 Ozuna, Realmuto

12 Grisham

11 O'Hearn, Yaz, Bell, Castro

10 Rengifo, Bader

8 S Marte, Kepler

7 Goldschmidt, Mullins, T Pham, Conforto

6 M Andujar, C Santana, J McCann

5 C Taylor, Kiner-Falefa, Moncada

4 G Sanchez, Refsnyder, A Frazier

 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

According to SPOTRAC, these are the AAV market values of the besteveryday players on the FA Market:

(Actually, Polanco is listed as player option)

40 Tucker

30 Bellinger

29 Alonso

28 Bregman

25 Schwarber

23 Bichette 

15 Naylor, Suarez, Polanco

14 Gurriel. Arraez, Torres

13 Ozuna, Realmuto

12 Grisham

11 O'Hearn, Yaz, Bell, Castro

10 Rengifo, Bader

8 S Marte, Kepler

7 Goldschmidt, Mullins, T Pham, Conforto

6 M Andujar, C Santana, J McCann

5 C Taylor, Kiner-Falefa, Moncada

4 G Sanchez, Refsnyder, A Frazier

 

these feel low to me.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Marte is the best hitting second baseman in the league, and hes more than adequate defensively.  Hes a stud.

But if I can get him or Greene, im getting greene.  I think hes a top 5 pitcher in the world in 2026. This was his first year throwing a splitter and hes still refining it.  And look at Guasman and Ohtani.  A good splitter is so unhittable right now, and while his splitter is his third pitch, I think that it continues to get better.

Greene throws 99 and can locate to any of 4 quadrants with his heater.  The batting average against on his 4-seam and slider are under .200.  He backdoors the slider to lefties. He recently ditched his curve for the split.

Dont forget cincy ballpark makes arizona look like oakland!

I do hear you though. Its hard to see a trade where Marte goes elsewhere when we could so use him. But McClain is a good buy low guy.  He was an absolute boss in college and he really struggled last year.

We could probably get Greene and K Marte, but more likely K Marte & Lodolo.

I'm not sure Brez & Co want to part with that much younger value to get 2, but if they want to go cheap, it is one alternative way to add the high quality we need. (KMarte is not cheap.)

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

these feel low to me.

They probably are, but maybe not by more than $5M AAV, and it depends on the years.

I would give Schwarber $30M AAV before Bellinger, so I think they are off in some areas.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I would love to get lodolo and marte or greene and marte or even mcclain or even all 4 lol

Mayer, password, bello, duran, sandlin, clarke, tolle in a 3 teamer for greene, lodolo, marte, mcclain.

We could do this and hardly any one we give up is being counted on for big 2026 production, but I think the extended future is a great priority to this organization.

Like the Crochet trade, I think we could see immediate boost by doing another blockbuster or two, and when you get players with 3+ years of control, or extend them, then it can be about the outlook AND the here and now.

I'm thinking the most we could even dream of is Marte & Lodolo and then a major signing like Schwarber or Alosno, but more likely it might be Suarez on a 2-3 year deal.

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We could probably get Greene and K Marte, but more likely K Marte & Lodolo.

I'm not sure Brez & Co want to part with that much younger value to get 2, but if they want to go cheap, it is one alternative way to add the high quality we need. (KMarte is not cheap.)

I dont think we could get greene for any price.  Im just playing fantasy baseball.

If Im cincy and you offer me roman anthony for greene , im blocking your number

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

these feel low to me.

Going by Spotrac's numbers and a possible $45M budget, maybe this is the best we could do:

24.9 Schwarber

15.0 Suarez

7.0 Hoskins

4.0 Matz

Duran($8M) K Campbell ($7.5M) & Sandlin for Greene ($8.3M) saves $7M and adds $7M to the $45M winter budget suggested above.

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

I dont think we could get greene for any price.  Im just playing fantasy baseball.

If Im cincy and you offer me roman anthony for greene , im blocking your number

Probably right, but we did get Crochet without giving up a top 3.

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They probably are, but maybe not by more than $5M AAV, and it depends on the years.

I would give Schwarber $30M AAV before Bellinger, so I think they are off in some areas.

well bellinger is a center fielder, so i get that.  Even though Id prefer schwarber for our team obvs.

Im wondering if its me who doesnt have a grasp on the market.  I just know what kind of economical environment weve been in since covid (hyper inflation) so its weird to me to see these AAVs in line with what I thought they would have been 7 years ago

The ticket prices to fenway have prob doubled in the last 10 years but player salaries are mostly flat. Welcome to America , I guess.

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

well bellinger is a center fielder, so i get that. 

No, no, no- look away from the position column.

(BTW, Bellinger can play 1B, too.)

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Going by Spotrac's numbers and a possible $45M budget, maybe this is the best we could do:

24.9 Schwarber

15.0 Suarez

7.0 Hoskins

4.0 Matz

Duran($8M) K Campbell ($7.5M) & Sandlin for Greene ($8.3M) saves $7M and adds $7M to the $45M winter budget suggested above.

 

That team is really good. My only change would be to add 20m on top, turn that 45 into 65 and bring back gio

Roman
Schwarber
Suarez
Hoskins
Abreu
Story
Nav
Mayer
Cedanne

Crochet, greene, gio, bello, early

 

[drewski6]

also if we are getting schwarber and hoskins i can live without suarez...What if we cut matz and suarez and reallocte that towards gio, might even be under the line.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

That team is really good. My only change would be to add 20m on top, turn that 45 into 65 and bring back gio

Roman
Schwarber
Suarez
Hoskins
Abreu
Story
Nav
Mayer
Cedanne

Crochet, greene, gio, bello, early

 

Now wait, how did you get Greene without losing Anthony?

Adding $20 + $3.5M for trading Duran for Lodolo and.... (Trade Hicks & $5M to save $7M AAV.)

$25M Schwarber

$15M Suarez

$15M Polanco

$7M Hoskins

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Schwarber DH

3. S Polanco 2B

4. R Suarez 3B

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu RF

7. R Hoskins 1B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Marte is the best hitting second baseman in the league, and hes more than adequate defensively.  Hes a stud.

But if I can get him or Greene, im getting greene.  I think hes a top 5 pitcher in the world in 2026. This was his first year throwing a splitter and hes still refining it.  And look at Guasman and Ohtani.  A good splitter is so unhittable right now, and while his splitter is his third pitch, I think that it continues to get better.

Greene throws 99 and can locate to any of 4 quadrants with his heater.  The batting average against on his 4-seam and slider are under .200.  He backdoors the slider to lefties. He recently ditched his curve for the split.

Dont forget cincy ballpark makes arizona look like oakland!

I do hear you though. Its hard to see a trade where Marte goes elsewhere when we could so use him. But McClain is a good buy low guy.  He was an absolute boss in college and he really struggled last year.

The question remains - why would Cincinnati trade Greene?  They don’t have so many holes to fill that they need to trade their very affordable best pitcher.  
 

Lodolo?  Maybe.  Singer? Definitely. Greene?  Not happening…

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

The question remains - why would Cincinnati trade Greene?  They don’t have so many holes to fill that they need to trade their very affordable best pitcher.  
 

Lodolo?  Maybe.  Singer? Definitely. Greene?  Not happening…

Drew even said it would take Anthony plus.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Going by Spotrac's numbers and a possible $45M budget, maybe this is the best we could do:

24.9 Schwarber

15.0 Suarez

7.0 Hoskins

4.0 Matz

Duran($8M) K Campbell ($7.5M) & Sandlin for Greene ($8.3M) saves $7M and adds $7M to the $45M winter budget suggested above.

 

It's more likely they can swing a trade for Ryan than Greene. I also don't see them getting Schwarber, Suarez AND Hoskins. At most, they'd get two of three and maybe only one. Roster makes very little sense as Masa would be a permanent bench guy.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's more likely they can swing a trade for Ryan than Greene. I also don't see them getting Schwarber, Suarez AND Hoskins. At most, they'd get two of three and maybe only one. Roster makes very little sense as Masa would be a permanent bench guy.

Yes, I agree. I don't see Brez and Co doing this, but we COULD do it or something very similar on a restricted AAV budget, but it would have to involve flicking the switch to giving out 1-2 longer term deals. Suarez will not get a long deal from anyone. Someone like Merrill Kelly won't either.

We could (not will) sign Schwarber, Suarez and Kelly and make a trade not involving Duran to get Ryan- something like Campbell, Arias, Clarke and Sandlin?

Crochet, Ryan, Kelly, Bello and 8 guys fighting for #5.

Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert and 8 guys fighting for the next 4 slots

1. L Anthony LF

2. L Schwarber DH

3. R Suarez 3B

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Story SS

6. L Duran CF

7. R Narvaez C

8. L Mayer/ R Romy 2B

9. R Romy/L Casas 1B

Bench: Wong, Rafaela, Romy, Garcia/Yoshida/Sogard

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's more likely they can swing a trade for Ryan than Greene. I also don't see them getting Schwarber, Suarez AND Hoskins. At most, they'd get two of three and maybe only one. Roster makes very little sense as Masa would be a permanent bench guy.

I’ve seen all kinds of different options thrown out there on what the Red Sox should do, but I still don’t see the Red Sox signing any big FA contracts for anyone unless it’s a Bregman type signing, or for Bregman himself. If Bregman leaves it wouldn’t surprise me at all that Mayer takes over at 3B, and the rest of the positions are filled from within. What’s the plan for KC? He’s got a contract, so now they have to find him a place to play. A trade for pitching is more likely than a FA signing.

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I agree. I don't see Brez and Co doing this, but we COULD do it or something very similar on a restricted AAV budget, but it would have to involve flicking the switch to giving out 1-2 longer term deals. Suarez will not get a long deal from anyone. Someone like Merrill Kelly won't either.

We could (not will) sign Schwarber, Suarez and Kelly and make a trade not involving Duran to get Ryan- something like Campbell, Arias, Clarke and Sandlin?

Crochet, Ryan, Kelly, Bello and 8 guys fighting for #5.

Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert and 8 guys fighting for the next 4 slots

1. L Anthony LF

2. L Schwarber DH

3. R Suarez 3B

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Story SS

6. L Duran CF

7. R Narvaez C

8. L Mayer/ R Romy 2B

9. R Romy/L Casas 1B

Bench: Wong, Rafaela, Romy, Garcia/Yoshida/Sogard

They COULD do it, but there are just too many suitors out there and not enough supply. Brezzz would have to have the deals in place right away and possibly overpay for each guy to get them to sign before other teams are involved. 

With Masa on board, I think they are kind of stuck at the DH position this season. They could possibly DFA him next year and only eat one year of the salary or move him at this deadline if he's performing well. 

C Narvaez

1B Okamoto

2B Story

SS Mayer

3B Bregman

RF Anthony

CF Rafaela

LF Duran

DH Yoshida

Bench: Wong, Refsnyder, Hamilton, Romy

Sox have said they want to turn the defense around. Not sure how they go about doing that with Story at SS. The logical move is Mayer to SS and Story to 2B. Bregman was decent at 3B and they clearly like his fit so they prioritize him over Schwarber and other big bats. To help the IF defense, they then target Okamoto who can also provide some RH pop and maybe some comfort to Masa. They deal Abreu instead of Duran in a package for a middle of the rotation arm. They stick with Duran because he stays in the lineup more and can backup CF if Rafaela needs to move to the IF in an emergency. They also believe in Anthony's glove in RF.

Hope for health luck with Breggie, Masa and Oka to become fast friends, Anthony to have no post injury issues and Duran to return to a 120ish wRC+. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’ve seen all kinds of different options thrown out there on what the Red Sox should do, but I still don’t see the Red Sox signing any big FA contracts for anyone unless it’s a Bregman type signing, or for Bregman himself. If Bregman leaves it wouldn’t surprise me at all that Mayer takes over at 3B, and the rest of the positions are filled from within. What’s the plan for KC? He’s got a contract, so now they have to find him a place to play. A trade for pitching is more likely than a FA signing.

If they don't sign anyone, he's the most likely 3b. Romy/Hamilton are ok for a platoon 2b. Story's arm isn't good enough for 3b. Romero could play a little 3b for BOS in '27 maybe. There's no one else. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They COULD do it, but there are just too many suitors out there and not enough supply. Brezzz would have to have the deals in place right away and possibly overpay for each guy to get them to sign before other teams are involved. 

With Masa on board, I think they are kind of stuck at the DH position this season. They could possibly DFA him next year and only eat one year of the salary or move him at this deadline if he's performing well. 

C Narvaez

1B Okamoto

2B Story

SS Mayer

3B Bregman

RF Anthony

CF Rafaela

LF Duran

DH Yoshida

Bench: Wong, Refsnyder, Hamilton, Romy

Sox have said they want to turn the defense around. Not sure how they go about doing that with Story at SS. The logical move is Mayer to SS and Story to 2B. Bregman was decent at 3B and they clearly like his fit so they prioritize him over Schwarber and other big bats. To help the IF defense, they then target Okamoto who can also provide some RH pop and maybe some comfort to Masa. The deal Abreu instead of Duran in a package for a middle of the rotation arm. They stick with Duran because he stays in the lineup more and can backup CF if Rafaela needs to move to the IF in an emergency. They also believe in Anthony's glove in RF.

Hope for health luck with Breggie, Masa and Oka to become fast friends, Anthony to have no post injury issues and Duran to return to a 120ish wRC+. 

I would say something like this would be more likely than some of the other options I’ve seen thrown out there.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They COULD do it, but there are just too many suitors out there and not enough supply. Brezzz would have to have the deals in place right away and possibly overpay for each guy to get them to sign before other teams are involved. 

With Masa on board, I think they are kind of stuck at the DH position this season. They could possibly DFA him next year and only eat one year of the salary or move him at this deadline if he's performing well. 

C Narvaez

1B Okamoto

2B Story

SS Mayer

3B Bregman

RF Anthony

CF Rafaela

LF Duran

DH Yoshida

Bench: Wong, Refsnyder, Hamilton, Romy

Sox have said they want to turn the defense around. Not sure how they go about doing that with Story at SS. The logical move is Mayer to SS and Story to 2B. Bregman was decent at 3B and they clearly like his fit so they prioritize him over Schwarber and other big bats. To help the IF defense, they then target Okamoto who can also provide some RH pop and maybe some comfort to Masa. They deal Abreu instead of Duran in a package for a middle of the rotation arm. They stick with Duran because he stays in the lineup more and can backup CF if Rafaela needs to move to the IF in an emergency. They also believe in Anthony's glove in RF.

Hope for health luck with Breggie, Masa and Oka to become fast friends, Anthony to have no post injury issues and Duran to return to a 120ish wRC+. 

I see this as status quo. It's an uptick at 1B, but Breggie for Breggie and maybe Ryan for the '25 Gio are not upgrades. Once again, we will be relying on the kids to improve in major ways, or all in significant ways, and less injuries. 

You are the one saying we can and should spend more and then present a budget plan that looks like less than 2025. The AAV on Bregman is not going up. Okamoto is not going to cost $45M AAV. Why are we spending only half the amount below the tax line, here?

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I see this as status quo. It's an uptick at 1B, but Breggie for Breggie and maybe Ryan for the '25 Gio are not upgrades. Once again, we will be relying on the kids to improve in major ways, or all in significant ways, and less injuries. 

You are the one saying we can and should spend more and then present a budget plan that looks like less than 2025. The AAV on Bregman is not going up. Okamoto is not going to cost $45M AAV. Why are we spending only half the amount below the tax line, here?

It’s how the Red Sox see it that counts. I think the Red Sox see it as why spend if you don’t have to. You see as what you would want to see, and the Red Sox are going see it the way they look at things, and most likely they are not going to be the same.