A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

He would have to. Right now there is zero. He could make it back to MLB and either find a spot here as DH or get spun elsewhere. 

Could, sure.  The chance that story would make it through this last season wasnt particularly high and he did. 

[drewski6]

Im fine getting one of schwarber / alonso and letting yoshida vs casas fight it out for other 1b/dh spot.  ANd i dont care if they play if yoshida at first because they sign schwarber over alonso.

My money is on masa beating casas. Not because of the money involved but because i think hes a better ballplayer.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Could, sure.  The chance that story would make it through this last season wasnt particularly high and he did. 

I think Story's injury issues were more contact related and the one known arm injury. I wasn't too surprised he made it through the season. 

Casas is a bigger deal. 

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I think Story's injury issues were more contact related and the one known arm injury. I wasn't too surprised he made it through the season. 

Casas is a bigger deal. 

Fair.

[drewski6]

story , at least, is an athletic person.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Bregman was hired to play 2b, its just that raffys shoulder didnt heal enough over break and wasnt ready to start the season in a position where hed have to throw.

It's hard to know what Cora would have done, but he did say he liked Bregman at 2B.

IMO, the best set-up would have been 3B Bregman, SS Mayer, 2B Story, 1B Devers, DH Casas.

If they were hellbent on Campbell over Mayer, then Campbell at 2B and Story at SS.

[moonslav59]

While I'm not expecting any big winter budget number, I'm going on the assumption we might spend up to the tax line without going over for the 2nd year. Depending on what site you visit, that means about $40-45M, assuming no salary trades. (I'm assuming no Nate Lowe but yes on Story returning.)

If you figure we have 2-4 high need areas, that's not really enough to get all positions filled with high quality free agents, unless we get some luck involved.

My idea is to use or depth to fill the 4th need, and trade from OF depth and some prospects for one of the top 3 needs. That leaves just 2 slots to be filled via free agency. That could be a $30M + $15M combo of $25M + $20M AAV combos.

If we can somehow trade Hicks or Yoshida to save a few Million, we could up those numbers slightly. If we trade Duran $8M for Lodolo $4.5M, we'd add a little more. Campbell $7.5 for Gore $5M adds a little more. Maybe we can get the winter budget to $55-60M, this way, of JH could allow Brez to go up to the second line.

Look at the difference in trying to sign 2 major FAs using SPOTRAC's AAV and having $40-45M vs $60-65M:

$30M Alonso

$28M Bregman

$27M Ranger Suarez or Cease

$25M Schwarber

$23M Bichette

$16M M Kelly or Bassitt

$15M E Suarez, J Naylor, J Polanco

$14M N Martinez, G Torres, Realmuto

At $45M, maybe we can get Alonso & J Polanco or Torres

At $55M: Alonso & Bichette

At $65M: Alonso, E Suarez & J Polanco (+Matz) Trade for Lodolo & Gore

I know, that sounds like crazy talk, but if Spotracks numbers are close, and we break the moratorium on large and long deals, we can do this is and stay under the line(s.)

 

[moonslav59]

Imagine subtracting Bregman, Duran and Gio but adding Lodolo & Gore via trades and Alonso, Suarez and Polanco via free agency.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Alonso 1B

3. S Polanco 2B

4. R Suarez 3B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

(If Story opts out, we have Mayer at SS, and we stay under the second tax line.)

[moonslav59]

Realistically, though, we'll be lucky to land one big bopper and trade for someone like Keller.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, drewski6 said:

My money is on masa beating casas. Not because of the money involved but because i think hes a better ballplayer.

If Casas is 100% healthy, I'd bet on him being a better DH, but that doesn't mean Cora would choose Casas over Masa.

[moonslav59]

Not sure how realistic this is, but here I go...

Sony Gray is owed $35M in 2026 and an option for $30M for 2027 w $5M buyout. Essentially, it's $40M/1 or $65M/2. (The tax hit is $24.8M)

Willson Contreras is owed $18M, then $18.5M with an option for 2028 at $17.5M w a $5M buyout. Essentially, it's $41.5M/2 or $54M/3. (His tax hit is $17.5M.)

Combined, they total $106.5M/2 with a tax hit at $43.5M x 2.)

Masa is owed $37.2M/2 and Hicks is owed $24M/2. Combined, they are owed $61M/2. (Tax hit is $28.2M x 2)

By adding $15M to our tax budget line, we could trade Masa and Hicks and add someone else STL wants... maybe Campbell ($7.5M tax hit) and a prospect. or two.

We gain our #2 SP'er and a 1Bman and should have some money left over for 2B/3B.

STL saves $45M over two seasons and maybe improves their long term outlook.

[Old Red]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not sure how realistic this is, but here I go...

Sony Gray is owed $35M in 2026 and an option for $30M for 2027 w $5M buyout. Essentially, it's $40M/1 or $65M/2. (The tax hit is $24.8M)

Willson Contreras is owed $18M, then $18.5M with an option for 2028 at $17.5M w a $5M buyout. Essentially, it's $41.5M/2 or $54M/3. (His tax hit is $17.5M.)

Combined, they total $106.5M/2 with a tax hit at $43.5M x 2.)

Masa is owed $37.2M/2 and Hicks is owed $24M/2. Combined, they are owed $61M/2. (Tax hit is $28.2M x 2)

By adding $15M to our tax budget line, we could trade Masa and Hicks and add someone else STL wants... maybe Campbell ($7.5M tax hit) and a prospect. or two.

We gain our #2 SP'er and a 1Bman and should have some money left over for 2B/3B.

STL saves $45M over two seasons and maybe improves their long term outlook.

Would you make that deal if you were STL? You probably spend more time trying to unload Hicks, and Masa than Brez does. I get it, but i don’t believe there are to many takers out there that want either Masa, or Hicks let alone both even if they save some money, or not.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Would you make that deal if you were STL? You probably spend more time trying to unload Hicks, and Masa than Brez does. I get it, but i don’t believe there are to many takers out there that want either Masa, or Hicks let alone both even if they save some money, or not.

If I'm looking to save $45M and rebuild for the future, yes. I make the deal.

I don't see STL looking at a window in the nest 2 years, so why not dump 2 year big contracts?

I'm not sure they want Campbell- maybe Garcia and Arias plus Sandlin?

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If I'm looking to save $45M and rebuild for the future, yes. I make the deal.

I don't see STL looking at a window in the nest 2 years, so why not dump 2 year big contracts?

I'm not sure they want Campbell- maybe Garcia and Arias plus Sandlin?

Fortunately, or unfortunately whatever the case may be you can’t make the deal for both sides, and I don’t see Bloom making that trade at all.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Fortunately, or unfortunately whatever the case may be you can’t make the deal for both sides, and I don’t see Bloom making that trade at all.

It's highly unlikely- just as any suggested trades are. If he wants to dump salary, he could trade Gray and Contreras for prospects making min wage, and save the whole bundle. Taking back some salary, in theory, would increase the return value. I'm not sure the players I suggested are enough or more than what other team would offer. It would probably take more than what I mentioned.

Campbell, Garcia, Arias & Perales or Clarke/Valera/Fajardo if he wants a non 40 man pitcher.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If Casas is 100% healthy, I'd bet on him being a better DH, but that doesn't mean Cora would choose Casas over Masa.

He would 100% choose Casas over Masa. He's benched Masa for extended periods of time when Masa has been hitting well. 

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to know what Cora would have done, but he did say he liked Bregman at 2B.

IMO, the best set-up would have been 3B Bregman, SS Mayer, 2B Story, 1B Devers, DH Casas.

If they were hellbent on Campbell over Mayer, then Campbell at 2B and Story at SS.

IMO, only people over 70 glue a player to a position.

What they wanted, and what you got, were options. Versatility. Mix and match.

its 2025, theres no such things as a third baseman anymore.  Everybody is a "slash" as in 3b (slash) outfielder (slash) emergency catcher (slash) comptroller 

Gotta wear many hats.

WOuld Bregman have played 3b, or 2b, or DH, or 1b or OF? The answer is "Yes"

[drewski6]

But your lineup is could be the primary, it can be the default, but it isnt the only.  Cuz injuries will happen and holes will emerge.  And that was my biggest beef with devers.  That hes living in 1989 when everybody had a position and that was their position

[drewski6]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Imagine subtracting Bregman, Duran and Gio but adding Lodolo & Gore via trades and Alonso, Suarez and Polanco via free agency.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Alonso 1B

3. S Polanco 2B

4. R Suarez 3B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

(If Story opts out, we have Mayer at SS, and we stay under the second tax line.)

I dont hate it.

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Realistically, though, we'll be lucky to land one big bopper and trade for someone like Keller.

Give us the optimistic offseason checklist followed by the hard to swallow dose of reality, eh?

A tried and true formula.

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If Casas is 100% healthy, I'd bet on him being a better DH, but that doesn't mean Cora would choose Casas over Masa.

My current vision of each is masa hitting .730 OPS(ish) for most of the year but coming on late in the season for us when we needed him the most, smoking grounders through the infield, helping to make the yankees series fun and interesting.

Whereas Casas , its waddling to first base and never making it there because he popped both knees 2 steps outta the batters box

yes, there is recency bias in my current visions, but thats where they are.

 

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not sure how realistic this is, but here I go...

Sony Gray is owed $35M in 2026 and an option for $30M for 2027 w $5M buyout. Essentially, it's $40M/1 or $65M/2. (The tax hit is $24.8M)

Willson Contreras is owed $18M, then $18.5M with an option for 2028 at $17.5M w a $5M buyout. Essentially, it's $41.5M/2 or $54M/3. (His tax hit is $17.5M.)

Combined, they total $106.5M/2 with a tax hit at $43.5M x 2.)

Masa is owed $37.2M/2 and Hicks is owed $24M/2. Combined, they are owed $61M/2. (Tax hit is $28.2M x 2)

By adding $15M to our tax budget line, we could trade Masa and Hicks and add someone else STL wants... maybe Campbell ($7.5M tax hit) and a prospect. or two.

We gain our #2 SP'er and a 1Bman and should have some money left over for 2B/3B.

STL saves $45M over two seasons and maybe improves their long term outlook.

does sony gray walk out to that nineties folksy female voiced radio song

sonny came home with a list of naaaames
(skip the lines i dont remember)
Dayyyys go by 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont hate it.

We aren't coming close to what I suggested.

My guess is you're gonna "hate it," when all is said and done.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My current vision of each is masa hitting .730 OPS(ish) for most of the year but coming on late in the season for us when we needed him the most, smoking grounders through the infield, helping to make the yankees series fun and interesting.

Whereas Casas , its waddling to first base and never making it there because he popped both knees 2 steps outta the batters box

yes, there is recency bias in my current visions, but thats where they are.

 

The recency on Masa is that he misses most of the season (2025) or runs out of steam (.600 in last 23 games of '24 and .592 in last 52 games of '23)

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We aren't coming close to what I suggested.

My guess is you're gonna "hate it," when all is said and done.

Rats!

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The recency on Masa is that he misses most of the season (2025) or runs out of steam (.600 in last 23 games of '24 and .592 in last 52 games of '23)

double rats!

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

double rats!

 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

On 10/26/2025 at 4:53 PM, moonslav59 said:

If we add nobody, this might be the 2026 line-up:

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Duran DH

4. L Abreu RF.

5. R Romy 2B/ L DHam

6. L Mayer 3B

7. L Casas 1B/ R Romy 1B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy/DHam, Yoshida, Sogard

SP: Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Fitts, Dobbins, Bernardino, Hicks

13 on Farm + Houck to 60 Day IL

Early, Tolle, Perales, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Sandlin (Must clear waivers: Criswell, Wink & Moran) Campbell, Jh Garcia, Eaton (Grissom would have to clear waivers)

 

Yeah that's not gonna get it done IMO.  Abreu in the cleanup spot is drop off when compared to our competitors, after that they have 3 question marks at 5, 6 and 7.  

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

Yeah that's not gonna get it done IMO.  Abreu in the cleanup spot is drop off when compared to our competitors, after that they have 3 question marks at 5, 6 and 7.  

It will be wonderful listening to Sam/Craig puff up this lineup in the offseason and try to sell some tickets. 

[drewski6]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It will be wonderful listening to Sam/Craig puff up this lineup in the offseason and try to sell some tickets. 

Out of both sides of their mouth too

"we tried like really really really hard to improve the roster, and we just couldnt get any deals done. We , like the fans, are disappointed.  But at the end of hte day, its about wins and losses, and we think we are going to have more wins than we would have had if the dudes who we tried to sign were signed.  Hold on, I have to go fire the dude who told me that what i just said doesnt make sense.