A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They should have been able to develop him. 

The last DUDE they were able to develop was Devers. Every guy since then has just been a guy. There's still hope for Roman next season. 

Mookie, Xander, Raffy the developing was pretty good, and at the moment not so good. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Mookie, Xander, Raffy the developing was pretty good, and at the moment not so good. 

There's not one hitter in AAA that would be interesting to see in BOS. POR has 4 guys that are worth watching for now, but only one that could be an impact MLB guy. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There's not one hitter in AAA that would be interesting to see in BOS. POR has 4 guys that are worth watching for now, but only one that could be an impact MLB guy. 

KC has definitely gone backward, and Mayer is on his way. little Anthony doesn’t seem any closer to playing than he did when he got hurt either. Once again Mayer, and Anthony are losing valuable developmental time, which is most needed.

[Bellhorn04]

57 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

To try and win more baseball games??? You can’t get good players without giving up good players. RS need a MIF with a great bat more than a very promising LHP (crochet, Suarez, Early still here) 

Trading a young, cost-controlled potential ace who has already had MLB success is not something a big market franchise ever does.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, notin said:

BTV gives Tolle roughly the same surplus value as Zack Neto and CJ Abrams.  Who pulls that trigger?

 

Red Sox fans aiming at a CBO trading his top young starter for someone who plays the same position as Boston's Number One prospect.

[notin]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

To try and win more baseball games??? You can’t get good players without giving up good players. RS need a MIF with a great bat more than a very promising LHP (crochet, Suarez, Early still here) 

Unless you trade Vaughn Grissom…

[notin]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Red Sox fans aiming at a CBO trading his top young starter for someone who plays the same position as Boston's Number One prospect.

I’m not the first to mention those names. 
 

That said, Fangraphs earlier this year postulated Arias might be the overall number one prospect in baseball at some point this year.  And Arias is doing nothing to make that statement look foolish…

[notin]

47 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Trading a young, cost-controlled potential ace who has already had MLB success is not something a big market franchise ever does.

Michael Pineda?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

KC has definitely gone backward, and Mayer is on his way. little Anthony doesn’t seem any closer to playing than he did when he got hurt either. Once again Mayer, and Anthony are losing valuable developmental time, which is most needed.

The team that is 3rd in MLB revenues and is in a hub of the health care industry should have a better medical staff.

[vegasbob]

I do not see much news on Crochet's recovery or lack thereof.    Last update on RedSox.com is June 22.

While he is still considered a TOTR starter, how about the fact that he is missing over 50% of the season with no sign of return.    

Recommendation:  Do Not Trade Starting Pitching to solve the hitting issue.   The Sox ( Breslow) are extremely lucky that Early, , Bennett, and Tolle have been big contributors along with Gray and Suarez.   Now Early and Suarez are ???? at the moment.  Can Sandoval go more than 3 innings for a awhile?  

If there was reason to think Crochet was on track to return by the TD ( 8/3) go ahead and shop Gray but stop there.  If any GM wants the rehabbing Houck or Crawford , you are welcome to them.

[Old Red]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The team that is 3rd in MLB revenues and is in a hub of the health care industry should have a better medical staff.

That’s a mystery in itself.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

I do not see much news on Crochet's recovery or lack thereof.    Last update on RedSox.com is June 22.

While he is still considered a TOTR starter, how about the fact that he is missing over 50% of the season with no sign of return.    

Recommendation:  Do Not Trade Starting Pitching to solve the hitting issue.   The Sox ( Breslow) are extremely lucky that Early, , Bennett, and Tolle have been big contributors along with Gray and Suarez.   Now Early and Suarez are ???? at the moment.  Can Sandoval go more than 3 innings for a awhile?  

If there was reason to think Crochet was on track to return by the TD ( 8/3) go ahead and shop Gray but stop there.  If any GM wants the rehabbing Houck or Crawford , you are welcome to them.

I believe there was a Globe article last week about it and why it's taking so long. 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/06/29/sports/red-sox-garrett-crochet-shoulder-injury/

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I still like the Story for Murphy framework for a deal, but Story needs to start playing

100%.  The framework is interesting, but a non-starter unless Story is playing.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, UtahSox said:

To try and win more baseball games??? You can’t get good players without giving up good players. RS need a MIF with a great bat more than a very promising LHP (crochet, Suarez, Early still here) 

I'm not sure Abrams is even a better player than Tolle, let alone the extra 3 years of control.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The last DUDE they were able to develop was Devers.

You forgot Duran and Ceddanne.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Michael Pineda?

Pineda had one year with a 101 ERA+ and was injured.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You forgot Duran and Ceddanne.

Duran is NOT a DUDE. In a few years, he's going to a be a "remember that guy" when you go back and look at Sox prior seasons.

Ceddanne has a 112 wRC+ and 8 HR. That's NOT a DUDE. He's a good defensive player, but not a guy that should be hitting at the top of the order. 

[moonslav59]

On  why we "can't develop our own players" (We can) and "How do the Astros and Brewers keep getting the best" out of scrubs they acquire? (They don't always.)

The Astros were raving about Mike Borrows, and the fans loved what a steal that trade was. He was just demoted. Their rotation is in shambles, now.

The Brewers are flying high, now, but we've seen this before.

[drewski6]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran is NOT a DUDE. In a few years, he's going to a be a "remember that guy" when you go back and look at Sox prior seasons.

Ceddanne has a 112 wRC+ and 8 HR. That's NOT a DUDE. He's a good defensive player, but not a guy that should be hitting at the top of the order. 

From dude to doody

Little poop joke 4 u

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

On  why we "can't develop our own players" (We can) and "How do the Astros and Brewers keep getting the best" out of scrubs they acquire? (They don't always.)

The Astros were raving about Mike Borrows, and the fans loved what a steal that trade was. He was just demoted. Their rotation is in shambles, now.

The Brewers are flying high, now, but we've seen this before.

oh, no not mike borrows.  Guess he burrowed his way down to AAA.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

oh, no not mike borrows.  Guess he burrowed his way down to AAA.

If we think our rotation has been beset with injuries: the Astros have done this every year for a decade.

Somehow they are just 1.5 GB the WC and have a -41 run diff. Oh wait, I know why: they are 5-1 vs the Sox. (+19 run diff at 33-14.)

[cp176]

6 hours ago, notin said:

BTV gives Tolle roughly the same surplus value as Zack Neto and CJ Abrams.  Who pulls that trigger?

 

Notin this is why I mentioned Tolle.  People have consistently included his name in possible trade moves.  Likely no one is particularly serious.  At least I hope not.  We have plenty of players that could be traded without causing much of a ripple.  I was shocked  that a trade wasn’t made in the off season or a free agent sign to give us what we need - one more power hitter.  Trading a young pitcher like Tolle would be ridiculous.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, cp176 said:

Notin this is why I mentioned Tolle.  People have consistently included his name in possible trade moves.  Likely no one is particularly serious.  At least I hope not.  We have plenty of players that could be traded without causing much of a ripple.  I was shocked  that a trade wasn’t made in the off season or a free agent sign to give us what we need - one more power hitter.  Trading a young pitcher like Tolle would be ridiculous.

Angel and Nats fans are saying the same about Neto and Abrams.

There was a time where Early was mentioned as being as or more untouchable than Tolle.

Nobody viewed Bennett as a big asset- just like Priester and Harrison before their blast-offs.

I don't disagree with you on Tolle. He is about as big a "keeper" as a teamc an ever have, IMO, but to me, anyone and everyone is on the table, as long a the return has more value.

[JoeBrady]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree with you on Tolle. He is about as big a "keeper" as a teamc an ever have,

If they were to re-rank the prospects, but included Tolle's 2026 results, he'd probably be top-10, maybe top-5.  Trading him to enhance our chances of making the playoffs in 2026 is just one more fantasy.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If they were to re-rank the prospects, but included Tolle's 2026 results, he'd probably be top-10, maybe top-5.  Trading him to enhance our chances of making the playoffs in 2026 is just one more fantasy.

Tolle will not be traded, so it is a fantasy (to some, I guess.)

I'm not for trading him, but as far as 2026 is concerned, he's not giving us 180 IP. His value is more in the future. Other players in MLB have more 2026 value. That's not fantasy.

[moonslav59]

Whodathunk Contreras would be ranked 7th in OPS, this late in the season. He's just below Schwarber and above Kurtz, Caminero & PC-A.

Rafaela is ranked 63 out of 133 batters wit 300+ PAs.

Abreu is ranked 76th. 

[moonslav59]

Some fWAR numbers of interest:

9 Arraez 3.4

18 Rafaela 2.9

21 Contreras 2.8

29 B Lowe & Schwarber 2.6

38 Abrams 2.5

45 K Marte 2.2

46 Judge & Chisholm 2.1

51 Murakami 2.0

57 Alonso, Paredes & Okamoto 1.9

63 Neto 1.8, Abreu & Wm Contreras 1.8

90 Bregman, Bogey, Meidroth 1.5

105 Hoerner 1.4

113 Horwitz 1.3

121 Betts, Bichette 1.2

131 O'Hearn, K Tucker 1.1

145 Devers, Durbin, Arenado, G Torres 1.0

171 Vladdy, Teoscar 0.8

200 Realmuto 0.5

210 Duran 0.4

217 DHam, B Matthews 0.2

230 N Lowe, V Grissom, Narvaez 0.1

250 A Riley 0.0

260 Yoshida, Mayer -0.1

280 T Gray -0.3

281 O'Neill -0.4

290 Story -0.5

300 E Suarez, Ozuna -0.8

303 Vientos, S Perez -1.1

[vegasbob]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I believe there was a Globe article last week about it and why it's taking so long. 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/06/29/sports/red-sox-garrett-crochet-shoulder-injury/

Thanks for the article. 

Now I know it is less than 50-50 that Crochet will pitch anytime before September 

Basically,  he needs to relearn how to throw to avoid tearing up his rotator cuff. Not encouraging. 

[UtahSox]

9 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Red Sox fans aiming at a CBO trading his top young starter for someone who plays the same position as Boston's Number One prospect.

Yawn….. we are 50x more likely to have more pitchers come through. And even if Arias (who is only in Double A and 2 years away) IS the SS of the future. Abram’s easily could be moved off of short. 
 

Then look at pitching you have Crochet, Suarez, Early, and Bennett who are all left hand pitchers with 4+ years control. 
Then look at Bats we have coming through minors (not much) what about other pitchers?? Oh Eyanson, Witherspoon, Valera & Phillips. 
 

Id trade Tolle for Abrams by the end of tonight if Nationals would say yes. 

 

 

[moonslav59]

The AL WC seems much more in reach, now. 10-2 can do that.

Updated standings:

47-46 CLE (WC2)

46-46 TEX (WC3) 

-0.5 MIN 46-47 (-1 loss column)

-1.5 HOU 46-49 (-3 loss column)

-2.5 TOR 44-49 (-3 loss column)

-3.0 BOS 42-48 (-2 loss column)

-4.0 DET 42-50 (-4 loss column)

-4.5 BAL 42-51 (-5)

-5.0 A's 41-51 (-5)

-