A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

given the Red Sox revenue one would hope so.  Spending smartly now that's a different story but by all means keep going on and defending JH. You are pretty much a lone wolf on here.

So apparently injecting reality is “defending Henry”?   

[iortiz]

Geez watching the CWS game and Meidroth. Can't believe we failed in that trade as well. Seems like we traded the wrong prospects to Chicago and extended a guy who probably won't see a MLB AB again.

[vegasbob]

On 5/28/2026 at 6:19 AM, mvp 78 said:

Sox are still 30th in expected ABS challenges per Statcast (-30.3). 

Sox have won 30 and lost 43 challenges. Reds have won 67 and lost 43 challenges. 

Most Sox players are not knowledgable  re: strike zone

These numbers confirm it

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

and your suggestion on how to fix this mess is.........?

I'd trade anyone and everyone not part of the 2028 team and go for a quick turn-around rebuild. Keep the framework of young players in place and hope the grow into plus players by 2028. Forget about 2026 for sure. I know nobody wants to write off 2027, because there could be a chance we add enough (keep Chapman and other '27 players) and try to compete, but I don't see JH spending what that would take.

We might get something from Houck, Crawford, Romy and Casas in 2027, but I'm done counting on that kind of value. Just shoot for 2028. Every move and choice should be with 2028 and beyond in mind.

I'm sure we could work out some sort of plan where 2027 comes into play, but you asked what I would do.

The 2028 core:

C: ______, Narvaez as the #2 (Jo Garcia/Heyman)

1B Contreras (last control year), Romy  (J Gonzales)

2B ______/Mayer/Romy (Romero/Godbout)

SS Arias or Mayer (Monasterio)

3B ______/Mayer/Durbin (Seigler)

LF Anthony/Duran (Castro)

CF Rafaela (Azocar)

RF Abreu (YRod)

DH Duran/Anthony (Cespedes/Casas/Campbell/Brannon)

SP Crochet/Suarez/Tolle/Early/______ (Bennett/Eyanson/Witherspoon/Phillips/Paez)

RP ______, _______, Slaten, Crawford, Bello, Moran, Samaniego, Weissert (Kelly/Bastardo/Watson/Holobetz/Uberstine/Wehunt/Mullins)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

given the Red Sox revenue one would hope so.  Spending smartly now that's a different story but by all means keep going on and defending JH. You are pretty much a lone wolf on here.

Someone can dislike JH and his choices and still give the facts.

[moonslav59]

According to Steve the Ump, the Sox payroll as compared to the #15 team since 1998:

+15M '98

+25M '99

+19M '00

+46M '01

+47M '02

______________

JH ERA begins

+29M '03 Theo begins

+61M '04

+53M '05

+48M '06

+56M '07

+53M '08

+41M '09

+78M '10

+74M '11

+85M '12 Ben Begins

+60M '13

+55M '14

+72M '15

+67M '16 DD Begins

+59M '17 

+94M '18

+81M '19

+21M '20 COVID short season (Bloom Begins)

+55M '21

+51M '22

+11M '23

+12M '24 Brez Begins

+34M '25

+69M

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, iortiz said:

Geez watching the CWS game and Meidroth. Can't believe we failed in that trade as well. Seems like we traded the wrong prospects to Chicago and extended a guy who probably won't see a MLB AB again.

Chase Meidroth - OPS+ of 90

Kristian Campbell - OPS+ of 89

Once again, the monster is always greener, I guess…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Chase Meidroth - OPS+ of 90

Kristian Campbell - OPS+ of 89

Once again, the monster is always greener, I guess…

... and I guess it doesn't matter that we traded Meirdroth for Crochet and not KC.

Speaking of green, I'm not sure why everything has to be all black or white.

If you dislike Brez, the claim has to be that every move he's made has been bad.

[moonslav59]

Pretty funny how it's become the IKF & Durbin show, of late.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd trade anyone and everyone not part of the 2028 team and go for a quick turn-around rebuild. Keep the framework of young players in place and hope the grow into plus players by 2028. Forget about 2026 for sure. I know nobody wants to write off 2027, because there could be a chance we add enough (keep Chapman and other '27 players) and try to compete, but I don't see JH spending what that would take.

We might get something from Houck, Crawford, Romy and Casas in 2027, but I'm done counting on that kind of value. Just shoot for 2028. Every move and choice should be with 2028 and beyond in mind.

I'm sure we could work out some sort of plan where 2027 comes into play, but you asked what I would do.

The 2028 core:

C: ______, Narvaez as the #2 (Jo Garcia/Heyman)

1B Contreras (last control year), Romy  (J Gonzales)

2B ______/Mayer/Romy (Romero/Godbout)

SS Arias or Mayer (Monasterio)

3B ______/Mayer/Durbin (Seigler)

LF Anthony/Duran (Castro)

CF Rafaela (Azocar)

RF Abreu (YRod)

DH Duran/Anthony (Cespedes/Casas/Campbell/Brannon)

SP Crochet/Suarez/Tolle/Early/______ (Bennett/Eyanson/Witherspoon/Phillips/Paez)

RP ______, _______, Slaten, Crawford, Bello, Moran, Samaniego, Weissert (Kelly/Bastardo/Watson/Holobetz/Uberstine/Wehunt/Mullins)

There's still nobody with more than one home run to bat 5th. The Guardians will just keep walking or hit-by-pitching Contreras with 1st base open.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

There's still nobody with more than one home run to bat 5th. The Guardians will just keep walking or hit-by-pitching Contreras with 1st base open.

I've agreed that the big mistake was not adding a big second bat.

Note: I did not view Bregman or Bichette as a big bat at all.

[moonslav59]

May Sox OPS

1.059 IKF

1.005 Roman (13 ABs)

.922 Willson

.847 Duran

.826 Rafaela

.784 Gasper

.721 Sogard

.687 Masa

.678 Abreu

.667 Wong

.634 Monasterio

.593 Story

.577 Narvaez

.517 Durbin

.493 Mayer

May ERA (9+ IP)

0.00 Chapman 

2.00 Gray

2.35 Tolle

2.67 Bello

2.89 Suarez

3.07 Early

3.12 Whitlock (8.2 IP)

3.60 Weissert

3.94 Watson

4.35 Bennett

4.91 Moran

5.40 Samaniego

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If you dislike Brez, the claim has to be that every move he's made has been bad.

That's not unusual in the US, but it is more common among RS fans.  It's like you are either a star, or a bum.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Pretty funny how it's become the IKF & Durbin show, of late.

Small sample sizes, blah blah blah, reversion to the mean, blah blah blah.  I mentioned this once before that in the RSN, and 0-4 means your career was over.  And no one objected.

[illinoisredsox]

7 hours ago, iortiz said:

Geez watching the CWS game and Meidroth. Can't believe we failed in that trade as well. Seems like we traded the wrong prospects to Chicago and extended a guy who probably won't see a MLB AB again.

You certainly are the master of 20-20 hindsight.

The Crochet trade was a failure?  Seriously?  Yeah, I know he's hurt right now.   That doesn't change the fact that the trade got us an ace.  You don't get that trading scraps.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

You certainly are the master of 20-20 hindsight.

The Crochet trade was a failure?  Seriously?  Yeah, I know he's hurt right now.   That doesn't change the fact that the trade got us an ace.  You don't get that trading scraps.

I think he remembers we traded Meidroth for Durbin.

[moonslav59]

The "realistic look:" we've won 1 in a row!

We play CLE on Sunday

Day off

3 vs BAL

3 at NYY

3 at TBR

Day off

3 vs TEX

3 vs TOR

If there ever was a time to go on a winning stretch, it's now.

Yea, right!

[moonslav59]

Tommy Kahnle has an opt-out on Monday.

Demote Guerrero?

Cut ties with Watson?

What about giving Seigler a look-see?

[notin]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Tommy Kahnle has an opt-out on Monday.

Demote Guerrero?

Cut ties with Watson?

What about giving Seigler a look-see?

As much as this team needs bullpen help, questions should be asked about Kahnle and his 11 BB in 14.1 IP in Worcester…

[Duran Is The Man]

the Sox are in last, 12 games behind the first place Rays, yet they have the exact same record on the road - 15-14. crazy.

[Bellhorn04]

Some good fun with baseball names yesterday.

Sonny Gray and Peyton Gray were winning pitchers.

Christian Scott was a winner, Tanner Scott was a loser.

And in the same game, Brad Lord was the winner and Michael King was the loser.  

[moonslav59]

While Kahnle walks a ton of hitters, he has a 14 inning scoreless streak going and will become a FA on Monday, if we don't add him to the roster.

I'd say let's keep him.

I've given up on hopes that Crawford, Oviedo or Sandoval can help the pen out, when they return, and other AAA options look scary, so why not?

Other 40 Man options: Bennett, Anderson & Gamboa- currently starting and Kelly or Eduardo Rivera.

Other non 40 AAA options: Sansone & Burgos (starters) and Bastardo, Keller, Song, Olds, Sweet, Martinez & Webb (Uberstine has begun his rehab.)

Whitlock is on the IL with a knee issue. Crochet does not seem like be joining the team anytime soon.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

While Kahnle walks a ton of hitters, he has a 14 inning scoreless streak going and will become a FA on Monday, if we don't add him to the roster.

I'd say let's keep him.

I've given up on hopes that Crawford, Oviedo or Sandoval can help the pen out, when they return, and other AAA options look scary, so why not?

Other 40 Man options: Bennett, Anderson & Gamboa- currently starting and Kelly or Eduardo Rivera.

Other non 40 AAA options: Sansone & Burgos (starters) and Bastardo, Keller, Song, Olds, Sweet, Martinez & Webb (Uberstine has begun his rehab.)

Whitlock is on the IL with a knee issue. Crochet does not seem like be joining the team anytime soon.

 

is Crochet Sale 2.0?

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While Kahnle walks a ton of hitters, he has a 14 inning scoreless streak going and will become a FA on Monday, if we don't add him to the roster.

I'd say let's keep him.

I've given up on hopes that Crawford, Oviedo or Sandoval can help the pen out, when they return, and other AAA options look scary, so why not?

Other 40 Man options: Bennett, Anderson & Gamboa- currently starting and Kelly or Eduardo Rivera.

Other non 40 AAA options: Sansone & Burgos (starters) and Bastardo, Keller, Song, Olds, Sweet, Martinez & Webb (Uberstine has begun his rehab.)

Whitlock is on the IL with a knee issue. Crochet does not seem like be joining the team anytime soon.

 

Walking a ton of hitters rarely translates into long, scoreless innings streaks in MLB like it clearly can in AAA.

But the Sox really do need bullpen help, and Kahnle has a long track record of success. (So long his age is becoming a factor.)

Id add and promote him.  Gamboa can be DFAd and optioned, and if he gets claimed he’s about as far from an irreplaceable talent as the Sox have on their 40 man.

And then send Samaniego down to Worcester to open a spot in the bullpen.

And Craig? While you have Worcester on the phone, call up Bennett and demote Weissert. And just keep Bello in the pen as a normal reliever…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

is Crochet Sale 2.0?

There is no indication he is prone to multiple injuries.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Walking a ton of hitters rarely translates into long, scoreless innings streaks in MLB like it clearly can in AAA.

But the Sox really do need bullpen help, and Kahnle has a long track record of success. (So long his age is becoming a factor.)

Id add and promote him.  Gamboa can be DFAd and optioned, and if he gets claimed he’s about as far from an irreplaceable talent as the Sox have on their 40 man.

And then send Samaniego down to Worcester to open a spot in the bullpen.

And Craig? While you have Worcester on the phone, call up Bennett and demote Weissert. And just keep Bello in the pen as a normal reliever…

To me, Guerrero and Samaniego are interchangeable on who is demoted. Giving up on Watson has merit, too, but keeping as many options on the table might override him as a choice.

On Bello, I would not mess with the opener followed by Bello routine. We just need to find a better opener. Maybe try Kahnle?

[UtahSox]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

According to Steve the Ump, the Sox payroll as compared to the #15 team since 1998:

+15M '98

+25M '99

+19M '00

+46M '01

+47M '02

______________

JH ERA begins

+29M '03 Theo begins

+61M '04

+53M '05

+48M '06

+56M '07

+53M '08

+41M '09

+78M '10

+74M '11

+85M '12 Ben Begins

+60M '13

+55M '14

+72M '15

+67M '16 DD Begins

+59M '17 

+94M '18

+81M '19

+21M '20 COVID short season (Bloom Begins)

+55M '21

+51M '22

+11M '23

+12M '24 Brez Begins

+34M '25

+69M

 

AAV not actual salary. Do AAV versus the top 7-8 thats all we really care about…. How did the Red Sox compare versus the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, BlueJays, Braves and now Mets? Although we’ve had this conversation before we already know the answers. Yankees are spending a FULL 100m more than RS again this year. Thats a big gap. 
although I do agree RS spend enough to have a much better record than they have. Their aversion to long term deals since 2018 has set franchise back from being elite top3-4 to being middle of pack.

[notin]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, Guerrero and Samaniego are interchangeable on who is demoted. Giving up on Watson has merit, too, but keeping as many options on the table might override him as a choice.

On Bello, I would not mess with the opener followed by Bello routine. We just need to find a better opener. Maybe try Kahnle?

Not sure Guerrero can be demoted.  I think - and Ive been wrong on this subject multiple times before - Guerrero eould need to be DFAd, clear waivers and then be optioned…

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

AAV not actual salary. Do AAV versus the top 7-8 thats all we really care about…. How did the Red Sox compare versus the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, BlueJays, Braves and now Mets? Although we’ve had this conversation before we already know the answers. Yankees are spending a FULL 100m more than RS again this year. Thats a big gap. 
although I do agree RS spend enough to have a much better record than they have. Their aversion to long term deals since 2018 has set franchise back from being elite top3-4 to being middle of pack.

The Yankees just keep putting up winning records every year.  Thankfully it hasn't translated to many rings lately - just 1 title since the year 2000.

[UtahSox]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd trade anyone and everyone not part of the 2028 team and go for a quick turn-around rebuild. Keep the framework of young players in place and hope the grow into plus players by 2028. Forget about 2026 for sure. I know nobody wants to write off 2027, because there could be a chance we add enough (keep Chapman and other '27 players) and try to compete, but I don't see JH spending what that would take.

We might get something from Houck, Crawford, Romy and Casas in 2027, but I'm done counting on that kind of value. Just shoot for 2028. Every move and choice should be with 2028 and beyond in mind.

I'm sure we could work out some sort of plan where 2027 comes into play, but you asked what I would do.

The 2028 core:

C: ______, Narvaez as the #2 (Jo Garcia/Heyman)

1B Contreras (last control year), Romy  (J Gonzales)

2B ______/Mayer/Romy (Romero/Godbout)

SS Arias or Mayer (Monasterio)

3B ______/Mayer/Durbin (Seigler)

LF Anthony/Duran (Castro)

CF Rafaela (Azocar)

RF Abreu (YRod)

DH Duran/Anthony (Cespedes/Casas/Campbell/Brannon)

SP Crochet/Suarez/Tolle/Early/______ (Bennett/Eyanson/Witherspoon/Phillips/Paez)

RP ______, _______, Slaten, Crawford, Bello, Moran, Samaniego, Weissert (Kelly/Bastardo/Watson/Holobetz/Uberstine/Wehunt/Mullins)

This feels like 2023 2024 all over. I think the fan base have rebuild fatigue which is why such a visceral reaction to 2026 offseason and 2026 regular season. We heard about all these names coming up, and how good they were gonna be. And a lot of them are just spare parts or anchor contracts now because we extended them when theyd played a decent spring training . Saying now youre doing everything for 2028 is kiss of death for Breslow.