A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

On 12/26/2025 at 11:45 AM, Randy Red Sox said:

He was not a good teammate there is no doubt. But the team created a lot of the drama on how they treated him and now they don't have either him or Bregman . Before Bregman arrived there were no real noticeable attitude issues with Raffy.

I believe that the Devers situation simply allowed JH to get out from a contract he only agreed to after letting XB get away for nothing as RSN was in an uproar over that.

The team didn’t create any drama; Devers did.  Telling a player to play DH doesn’t create drama.  And Devers jumped the gun and created all the drama about a move to 1b before he was even asked.

Mookie let the Dodgers bounce him around the field just to let other players play.  Devers wouldn’t even switch to cover for an injured teammate.  I’m glad he’s gone…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Amazing this needs to be pointed out. I think for some, unless another $300m contract is paid out, it hasn't been spent.

While this is true, extending your own young players is not really replacing his value as they talked of doing, going forward... both at the deadline and this winter.

[moonslav59]

So, Mayer replaces Bregman.

300 more PAs from Anthony replaces Refsnyder.

Healthy Casas and Masa replace Devers.

The only one that works for me is Contreras replacing N Lowe, Tore & Co. at 1B.

On the pitching side...

Gray is fine replacing Giolito.

Sandoval, Oviedo, Crawford, Harrison & Co should easily replace Buehler, Houck, Fitts, Dobbins & Co.

Watson and converted SP'ers replace Bernardino, Murphy, Criswell, Guerrero & Co.

That's a lot of moving parts from a team that was a few injuries and decent pitching from our $21M pitcher (Buehler) from maybe doing something very special.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

The team didn’t create any drama; Devers did.  

That will teach the Sox to never sign a guy like Bregman before asking your diva, if it's okay.

[moonslav59]

How about...

Duran & Harrison to PHI

Painter & DHam to AZ

KMarte & T Banks to BOS

 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

How about...

Duran & Harrison to PHI

Painter & DHam to AZ

KMarte & T Banks to BOS

 

Don’t forget to throw in Masa, and Hicks.🤓

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

That will teach the Sox to never sign a guy like Bregman before asking your diva, if it's okay.

Apparently. 
 

Maybe the Sox aren’t cheap.  Maybe they aren’t signing anyone because they’re a team of selfish divas that don’t want their playing time jeopardized…

[Randy Red Sox]

17 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

You could still put your faith in Mayer and start him at 2nd.  But I'd be fine starting him at 3rd and winging it with Romy/DHam.

Romy and Dham fit the budget alright

[Randy Red Sox]

6 hours ago, notin said:

The team didn’t create any drama; Devers did.  Telling a player to play DH Sony create dream.  And Devers jumped the gun and created all the drama about a move to 1b before he was even asked.

Mookie let the Dodgers bounce him around the field just to let other players play.  Devers wouldn’t even switch to cover for an injured teammate.  I’m glad he’s gone…

i could care less that he is gone too but the issue is they have not come close to replacing his power

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i could care less that he is gone too but the issue is they have not come close to replacing his power

Devers hit 15 home runs in 73 games for the 2025 Red Sox. Then he hit 20 more in 90 games for San Francisco.

Technically -- realistically -- criminally -- however it can be phrased, here are the batters that joined and hit homers in Boston uniforms after the Raffy trade: Yoshida 4, Lowe 2, Eaton 1.

That's not even half of Devers' HRs before he left...

[moonslav59]

We sorely need to replace Devers' power.

Contreras on O might replace Lowe & Bregman's O, but we still have to replace Devers + Ref.

[moonslav59]

Hopefully, we are not done adding to the offense, but here is a look at the 2025 numbers, by position, and what we might look like, as of now at each slot:

C: .653 I think we can improve on this, maybe with a little regression from Narvaez, but .650+ from Wong.

1B: .691 This might be our best chance at improvement with the addition of Contreras. If Contreras can bring the 1B OPS up to .791, we could add 100 points here.

2B: .670 This might be the toughest position to project. I'm assuming Mayer is at 3B and we go with romy, DHam & Sogard at 2B. .670 might be too lofty a goal, but maybe call it even.

SS: .736. I'm expecting some Story regression, but maybe no by too much. Maybe his sub (Mayer) can help keep the overall OPS near .740.

3B: .777 With Mayer at 3B, we could easily lose 50 to .75 points, here. 

LF: .781 Call it the same.

CF: .774 Maybe about the same.

RF: .882 Should be about the same.

DH: .823 If we go with LHBs Masa & Casas and RHB Romy & Campbell we might be lucky to keep the drop off to .25 to .50 points.

If we get lucky, maybe the add at 1B cancels out the losses at 3B and DH, but we'll need almost perfect health and no serious regressions to keep our offense about the same as 2025. Remember, we needed help on offense in '25.

We still do!

[moonslav59]

Sign Okamoto.

Trade Mayer, Rafaela & Holobetz for Greene

Trade DHam, Valera and Cespedes for Donovan

____________________________

1. L Anthony CF

2. R Okamoto 3B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Donovan 2B

8. L Yoshida/L Casas/ R Romy DH

9. R Narvaez C

SP: Crochet, Greene, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Oviedo (Tolle/Early)

RP: CHapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Crawford, Harrison, Weissert, Hicks, Watson

 

[Randy Red Sox]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sign Okamoto.

Trade Mayer, Rafaela & Holobetz for Greene

Trade DHam, Valera and Cespedes for Donovan

____________________________

1. L Anthony CF

2. R Okamoto 3B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Donovan 2B

8. L Yoshida/L Casas/ R Romy DH

9. R Narvaez C

SP: Crochet, Greene, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Oviedo (Tolle/Early)

RP: CHapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Crawford, Harrison, Weissert, Hicks, Watson

 

what world are you living in on those trades Moon. Not a chance in he$$ on either.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

what world are you living in on those trades Moon. Not a chance in he$$ on either.

LOL

 

[Old Red]

14 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

what world are you living in on those trades Moon. Not a chance in he$$ on either.

He’s never suggested a trade that the other team would even consider let alone accepting. Just standard procedure.🤫

[notin]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We sorely need to replace Devers' power.

Contreras on O might replace Lowe & Bregman's O, but we still have to replace Devers + Ref.

Weren’t the Sox better off without it?  I know some folksy simpletons like to say that’s irrelevant because the starting pitching carried.  Those people must get whiplash watching the point whiz by.

This isn’t fantasy baseball where the Sox are chasing categories.  Right now, DH is likely set with a combination of Yoshida, Casas and Gonzalez.  Or maybe Duran if he doesn’t get traded.

The Sox are probably set in 8 positions, possibly allow 9 if they never move Duran and make the unwise but still possible move of putting Rafaela at 2b.  Or SS…

[notin]

16 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Devers hit 15 home runs in 73 games for the 2025 Red Sox. Then he hit 20 more in 90 games for San Francisco.

Technically -- realistically -- criminally -- however it can be phrased, here are the batters that joined and hit homers in Boston uniforms after the Raffy trade: Yoshida 4, Lowe 2, Eaton 1.

That's not even half of Devers' HRs before he left...

Shouldn’t the Sox replace Betts’ and Bogaerts’ production first?  Especially if we’re counting what Devers did for another team.  Abd what about Sale? When do we replace Sale?!?   And Schwarber!  How do we get those 7 home runs back plus the 187 he hit for Philly?!

Breslow has some work to do…

[notin]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sign Okamoto.

Trade Mayer, Rafaela & Holobetz for Greene

Trade DHam, Valera and Cespedes for Donovan

____________________________

1. L Anthony CF

2. R Okamoto 3B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Donovan 2B

8. L Yoshida/L Casas/ R Romy DH

9. R Narvaez C

SP: Crochet, Greene, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Oviedo (Tolle/Early)

RP: CHapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Crawford, Harrison, Weissert, Hicks, Watson

 

Why do people think Hunter Greene is available and Cincy is punting after their first postseason appearance in years?

Yes some clickbait-oriented writer wrote an article about him being dealt.  I could go publish one about the benefits of trading Roman Anthony (actually I don’t have to; Ive read several) but that didn’t mean the Sox are considering it…

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

Weren’t the Sox better off without it?  I know some folksy simpletons like to say that’s irrelevant because the starting pitching carried.  Those people must get whiplash watching the point whiz by.

This isn’t fantasy baseball where the Sox are chasing categories.  Right now, DH is likely set with a combination of Yoshida, Casas and Gonzalez.  Or maybe Duran if he doesn’t get traded.

The Sox are probably set in 8 positions, possibly allow 9 if they never move Duran and make the unwise but still possible move of putting Rafaela at 2b.  Or SS…

Why are you straining to try and find a way for us to go light this offseason?

We need to improve to increase our chances at winning. Right now, we are not back to even with 2025 on offense or defense.

Yes, we seemingly have 8 positions filled, but talk of Rafaela at 2B is not a good idea.

To me, we need K Marte, with the next tier of Bregman, Bichette or maybe Paredes as acceptable. Anything less, and we go into 2026 looking worse or even on paper.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

He’s never suggested a trade that the other team would even consider let alone accepting. Just standard procedure.🤫

Most of my trades offer more value to the other teams- this one did not.

I just rejoined BTV's site, and my trades see more thumbs down on the Sox side than the other side.

Nice try,

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Why do people think Hunter Greene is available

I don't assume anyone is available. I assume everyone is.

I assume any GM will listen, when more value is offered than what they give up. (This was not true on the offer here.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Shouldn’t the Sox replace Betts’ and Bogaerts’ production first?  Especially if we’re counting what Devers did for another team.  Abd what about Sale? When do we replace Sale?!?   And Schwarber!  How do we get those 7 home runs back plus the 187 he hit for Philly?!

Breslow has some work to do…

Unlike the savings from Devers' contract dump, Brez never promised to "repurpose" the salaries the Sox escaped from losing those others. 

Bloom, however, bragged about trading Mookie so he could sign Kike and Garrett Richards (i heard Chaim say it in person).

Sam Kennedy did once tell us there was a way to keep both Betts and JD Martinez. Of course, they didn't -- which probably explains why he's still Prez (if the Sox canned Sam, his salary could've been repurposed).

Here's some advice, but promise not to repeat it: condemn the past. From now on, let's just hash the future.

 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Here's some advice, but promise not to repeat it: condemn the past. From now on, let's just hash the future.

 

Over Red's dead body, we WILL!

[Nick]

This is what I would tell John Henry. 

We benefitted from Chrochet having a monster year at the monetary cost of $3.8M last year. But that amount moves up to $28.333M for next six years, a delta of $24.533M. Hopefully we'll get the year he had in 2026.

Throw in Anthony's extension. It went from $2.65M in 2025 to $16.250M for 2026,  a delta of $13.600M.

What is true is this.

1. Buehler's $21.050M has been replaced by Gray's $21.000M for 2026. We have also replaced (in theory) Giolito's $19.250M with Oviedo's $1.700M, net gain of $17M. Maybe it's a pipe dream to think Oviedo will give us what Giolito gave in 2025. But we also inherited $10.258M with the addition of Jordan Hicks. That give us total net gain of say $7M.

2.Bregman's $31.677M has been replaced by Contreras' $21.250, net gain of $11M. 

3. Devers' AAV of $29M is gone, net gain of $29M.

Thus we gained approximately $47M in payroll before the raises to Crochet and Anthony totaling $38M, generating a net gain of $9M. 

Bottom line? It will cost us to above and beyond last year's CBA payoll to replace the bats of Bregman and Devers. We certainly can't get a comparable bat(s) for $9M. I'm not sure calling Henry cheap is 100% justified. 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, Nick said:

This is what I would tell John Henry. 

We benefitted from Chrochet having a monster year at the monetary cost of $3.8M last year. But that amount moves up to $28.333M for next six years, a delta of $24.533M. Hopefully we'll get the year he had in 2026.

Throw in Anthony's extension. It went from $2.65M in 2025 to $16.250M for 2026,  a delta of $13.600M.

What is true is this.

1. Buehler's $21.050M has been replaced by Gray's $21.000M for 2026. We have also replaced (in theory) Giolito's $19.250M with Oviedo's $1.700M, net gain of $17M. Maybe it's a pipe dream to think Oviedo will give us what Giolito gave in 2025. But we also inherited $10.258M with the addition of Jordan Hicks. That give us total net gain of say $7M.

2.Bregman's $31.677M has been replaced by Contreras' $21.250, net gain of $11M. 

3. Devers' AAV of $29M is gone, net gain of $29M.

Thus we gained approximately $47M in payroll before the raises to Crochet and Anthony totaling $38M, generating a net gain of $9M. 

Bottom line? It will cost us to above and beyond last year's CBA payoll to replace the bats of Bregman and Devers. We certainly can't get a comparable bat(s) for $9M. I'm not sure calling Henry cheap is 100% justified. 

Good breakdown. How about we just call Henry a big league owner, and spending to stay competitive comes with the badge. 

He may argue that trading resources is an alternative to signing free agents -- but scouting, drafting and developing those prospects (even surrounding them with non-prospects and coaches so they have can have on-the-job training) costs money, too...

... amiright or amibidextrous?

[Nick]

57 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Good breakdown. How about we just call Henry a big league owner, and spending to stay competitive comes with the badge. 

He may argue that trading resources is an alternative to signing free agents -- but scouting, drafting and developing those prospects (even surrounding them with non-prospects and coaches so they have can have on-the-job training) costs money, too...

... amiright or amibidextrous?

Very True....what would help is for Anthony, Myer, Casas and Kutter all to get healthy. Get something out of someone like Sandoval and have another youngster emerge. I was sorry to see 'password' get traded. Maybe it's Early as a starter and Tolle as a back end reliever. 

It appears we have plethora of pitching prospects but we are pretty dried up as far as position players are concerned. Our #2, Franklin Frias, 22 is slated to arrive at majors mid-2027. Perhaps he's the replacement for Story in 2028. Casas will be a FA in 2029 so we still have time. Let's hope he's not the clone of my former favorite now playing in Japan.

[moonslav59]

So the plan is hopes and prayers, and many here seem fine with that.

No wonder JH has no sense of urgency to placate the fans. Most seem content with the status quo.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

This isn’t fantasy baseball where the Sox are chasing categories.

Great saying.  I will lay claim to owning it at some point.  I won't try to convince anyone that believes that HRs are the only way to score runs.  The correlation of OPS to runs scored is extremely high, and much higher than HRs.  As a person that tries to attach math to as many things as possible, I'm at a loss trying to understand why people believe believe things that mathematically unlikely.

FWIW, of the top-10 teams in OPS, 9 of them were in the top-10 in scoring.  The only team that missed was the Athletics, and they finished 12th.

The most interesting of the HR teams were the Angels.  They finished 4th in HRs, but 25th in scoring, by virtue of being 28th in OBP, which itself was due to being last in Ks, and 29th in K/W.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't assume anyone is available. I assume everyone is.

I assume any GM will listen, when more value is offered than what they give up. (This was not true on the offer here.)

More value than Hunter Greene probably starts with Roman Anthony.

Don’t be fooled into thinking recent acquisitions of JJ Bleday and Dane Myers have fulfilled Cincy’s outfield needs.  Bleday and Myers are grown men capable of making MLB rosters who happen to know where the outfield is, but they are not solutions for teams seeking outfield production.  In fact, in that regard, they are problems…