A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

That k rate in the MIF is unsustainable. 

I think they can sustain it…

[mvp 78]

57 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm not so sure. Tracy and his masters have gone with the hot hands until they cool off.

Remember how they used Gasper, who became the psuedo starting catcher hitting in the top four of the batting order for a spell, but when he fell was immediately demoted.

542 OPS his last 25 G

406 OPS his last 15 G

They held on about a week too long IMO. 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

542 OPS his last 25 G

406 OPS his last 15 G

They held on about a week too long IMO. 

After like 5-6 games, he was toast. It just takes a while to realize it and move on.

[moonslav59]

On IP limits...

Early is 24 years old and can see an increase in IP, but by how much? I'm not sure viewing his recent IL stint as a hint that he can pitch more when he returns. He had 103 IP in 2024 and 101 in 2025- both in the minors. I think expecting 150 this year. He was leading the team in IP before the IL stint and is at 92, now. Assuming he comes back, I'm thinking 40 more IP (8 GS?)

Suarez should not be on an IP limit, and he just came off the IL, but he's never exceeded 158 IP and is at 91, now. He should be okay for 6 IP x 10-11 starts.

Tolle is at 90 IP in MLB but also 15 in AAA, so he's at 105. That's more than anyone else on the current staff. He's 23 and had 92 IP, last season. 150 IP is pushing it. 130 might be, too. If we make the playoffs, who can pitch?

Bennett has missed serious time with a major injury, He's 25. He once pitched 117 innings at Oklahoma. He hasn't pitched 76 IP since- in all pro ball. He's at 93 now and even pitched Fall ball last year. What's his limit? 120? 130?

Gray should not have limits, and since he is a FA after 2026, I doubt the Sox are concerned about overuse all that much. He's on pace for about 180, which he's done several times, including last year.

Sandoval and Rivera are huge question marks. The returns by Crochet, Houck, Crawford & Oviedo are highly skeptical.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

After like 5-6 games, he was toast. It just takes a while to realize it and move on.

His defense behind the plate was trash too. 

[moonslav59]

That 1988 season with Morgan Magic was amazing: 12 straight wins- a 9-8 loss then 7 more wins in a row. That was 19-1. We went from 3rd place to a tie for first. We lost 4 in a row and 7 of the next 9 to fall into 2nd, where we stayed until Sept 4th, when we went 11-3 to take over first and keep it, despite losing 6 of the last 7 games of the year.

In 2004, we won 9 of 10 in April and then had a great stretch winning 6, losing one then winning 10 (16-1) They also won 4 in a row after one more loss for a 20-2 stretch. We won 7 of 8 near the end of the year. Those epic playoffs saw us win 3, lose 3 then win 8 straight (11-3.)

They won 12 of 13 in 2005. We won 8 in a row later, lost 2 then won 6 in a row (14-2)

In 2006, the Sox won 12 and 14 of 15. 2007 saw not great stretches. Like 2004, we won 4 straight in the playoffs, lost 3 then won 7 straight for the ring. (11-3)

2008 saw a 10-1 streak. 2009 had the 11 game April streak.

12 of 13 in 2011 and 14-2. Later they went 10-1 and 13-2. (17-3) That was the year we ended the year 7-20 in September. 2012 was even worse by going 7 and 26 to end the season.

We started 2013 going 20-8 and had a 9-1 stretch later on. (We went 11-5 in the playoffs.)

In 2018, after losing the opening day game 6-4, we went 17-1. Later, we won 10 straight and 13 of 14. Even later we went 15-2. (11-3 in the playoffs, including a 6 game streak)

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His defense behind the plate was trash too. 

That was easy to see day one.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He had 103 IP in 2024 and 101 in 2025- both in the minors.

119.2 in 2025, including the RS.  Using the usual +30 formula, and ignoring the injury, we theoretically have 58 IPs left.  Good for at least 10 starts, and we are unlikely to see him until August.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

119.2 in 2025, including the RS.  Using the usual +30 formula, and ignoring the injury, we theoretically have 58 IPs left.  Good for at least 10 starts, and we are unlikely to see him until August.

Okay, I forgot the MLB IP for 2025, but I don't see time off for a 2026 injury as a reason to think thye +30 formula applies. He may also have some rehab IP before returning.

He may not even be activated in time for 10 starts.

Another question might be, if he does go 10 starts for 50-55 innings, how many can he gives us in the playoffs?

[moonslav59]

Last year, we had about 13 SP'ers on our depth chart and ended up trading for Dustin May and needing pen games in September.

I think we should plan on adding a pitcher.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

His defense behind the plate was trash too. 

 But his stache was not…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Last year, we had about 13 SP'ers on our depth chart and ended up trading for Dustin May and needing pen games in September.

I think we should plan on adding a pitcher.

Adding it to my planner…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Adding it to my planner…

I actually think 12-13 is better than most teams have, but it's what we've needed recently.

Nobody thought of Newcomb, two decembers ago and he ended up making the April rotation. SWe heard enough about trading #8 to #11 Priester.

This year the all healthy depth chart might have been:

1. Crochet

2. Suarez

3. Gray

4. Houck (known to be out for over half 2026)

5. Bello

6. Crawford (known to be out for over a month to start 2026)

7. Sandoval (same as Crawford)

8. Oviedo (soxprospects had him as our #5 for much of the winter)

9. Early

10. Tolle

11. Bennett

12. Uberstine/Sikkema/Anderson

??? Rivera