A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Behindenemylines]

On 10/31/2025 at 9:57 AM, moonslav59 said:

I fully understand this and expect nothing.

That being said, they did spend a lot, last winter and paid lip service to "adding" more and "improving" the team.

I've been trying to limit the sights to not going over the tax line. MVP suggests we can for year 2 then reset for 2027 (year 3.) The tax line is about $45M away in AAV. If we follow the past model, that may come in the form of only short term deals- perhaps one like Breggie's and maybe 1-2 more, or maybe 4-5 guys at $10-13M each.

I will not be surprised if we add Hoskins and trade Duran and others for Ryan and a claim that he team is better and "will win more," without Breggie, Gio, Matz and Ref.

This will not stop me from suggesting what I think SHOULD be done, and I know you are not telling me not to do that, but I want to say it again. There is a difference between what I suggest and what I expect, and I know what the team does and thinks is "all that counts."

 

On 10/31/2025 at 10:06 AM, Old Red said:

Lots of times I post what I think the Red Sox will do, and not what I would like to see them do. I would like to see the Red Sox sign both Flintstone, and Alonso, but I see zero chance of that happening. I guess I’m in a I’ll believe it when I see it mode, so I’ll just wait ,and see how it all turns out. Brez has proven he’s not afraid to make a move, so I expect something to happen, but just not to big.

If the Sox don't add a true number 2 starter and some power this off season they will take a step backwards next season. Plus resigning Bregman is very important. Bregman's numbers might be able to be replaced, but the leadership can't. A lot of the kids look to him for guidents. So these are the top three priorities:

1. True Number 2 starter ( Probably beat the Yanks in Wild Card if they had one this year)

2. Resign Bregman

3. Add power bat

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Behindenemylines said:

 

If the Sox don't add a true number 2 starter and some power this off season they will take a step backwards next season. Plus resigning Bregman is very important. Bregman's numbers might be able to be replaced, but the leadership can't. A lot of the kids look to him for guidents. So these are the top three priorities:

1. True Number 2 starter ( Probably beat the Yanks in Wild Card if they had one this year)

2. Resign Bregman

3. Add power bat

I wonder if the cost of keeping Bregman (your #2) might prevent 1 or 3 from being affordable.

We could trade for one, but then we lose a bat like Duran's or Abreu's, too.

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, JH won't go wild with spending, but with 1 or 2 key trades, I think there is a way to add some high quality free agent signings and stay under the first or second tax line. The trades might need to involve saving a few $ million to help stretch the winter budget out enough to add 2-3 big signings over 1-2, and maybe we can get creative and dump Yoshida and/or Hicks by adding a prospect or two or taking back a lesser AAV contract, but I'm not counting on this aspect of our winter plan.

To me, and maybe I'm oversimplifying things, we could get significantly better by just adding 3 major pieces and maybe 2 minor ones. I know "just" seems like too much to ask for JH.

1. Trade for a pitcher like Joe Ryan. (Maybe Duran is part of a 3 way deal to get him- maybe not. We do have guys like Campbell or Garcia and Clarke, Valera, Fajardo and Arias the Twins might covet enough.)

2. Sign Alonso or Schwarber (or trade for Harper or K Marte)

3. Sign Suarez, Polanco or Bichette (or trade for Harper, KMarte or ____?)

4. Minor signings like S Matz and Ref (if we trade Duran or Abreu)

I saw a clip with Merloni saying the Sox are super high on pitchers with very high swing and miss rates on balls in the K zone, and that Joe Ryan is their guy. (I wasn't aware this is his strength.)

I think he'll be good to go over the first tax line. Little to no chance he'll go over the second line though. 

I saw that Merloni video, too. It does feel very much like Ryan is the one that they have their sights on. I do expect that to happen. I think Early and Tolle getting the late season promotions (Harrison, too possibly), will increase their values and one of them will be going in a deal for Ryan I would think. Which is fine by me. 

We need to spend our prospect capital (especially on the pitching side of things after the last two drafts) to improve our major league roster now. It's the time to strike and go for it.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think he'll be good to go over the first tax line. Little to no chance he'll go over the second line though. 

I saw that Merloni video, too. It does feel very much like Ryan is the one that they have their sights on. I do expect that to happen. I think Early and Tolle getting the late season promotions (Harrison, too possibly), will increase their values and one of them will be going in a deal for Ryan I would think. Which is fine by me. 

We need to spend our prospect capital (especially on the pitching side of things after the last two drafts) to improve our major league roster now. It's the time to strike and go for it.

I read somewhere that Campbell would be a key piece in the Ryan trade, which I'm fine with, but I really hope we don't include Early or Tolle. I'd be fine adding Harrison or Clarke/Valera/Fajardo (just one SP'er prospect) and then maybe add a Sandlin/Mullins/Cespedes/Bleis or Murphy/Kelly/Guerrero/Moran type.

This could mean Duran DH's most of the time, with others rotating through when Duran plays LF or CF. That brings us back to where does Masa fit, but I'd be fine with him in AAA, on the bench or traded for some salary dump Pitcher, 1Bman, 3Bman or 2Bman. (I have yet to identify the right fit and team.)

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think he'll be good to go over the first tax line. Little to no chance he'll go over the second line though. 

Many seem to think we'll be staying under the line by a more than comfortable margin. 

I hope to hell that doesn't happen.

It shouldn't happen.

I'd like to think it won't happen.

But I've been disappointed too many time to get myself expecting it to not happen.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I read somewhere that Campbell would be a key piece in the Ryan trade, which I'm fine with, but I really hope we don't include Early or Tolle. I'd be fine adding Harrison or Clarke/Valera/Fajardo (just one SP'er prospect) and then maybe add a Sandlin/Mullins/Cespedes/Bleis or Murphy/Kelly/Guerrero/Moran type.

This could mean Duran DH's most of the time, with others rotating through when Duran plays LF or CF. That brings us back to where does Masa fit, but I'd be fine with him in AAA, on the bench or traded for some salary dump Pitcher, 1Bman, 3Bman or 2Bman. (I have yet to identify the right fit and team.)

I think dealing Early isn't the end of the world if it's to bring back a #2. His upside is most likely 4th starter. Tolle has a higher upside if he can figure out his secondaries. 

Not sure it makes financial sense to have Masa's 18M sitting on the bench for the majority of the season. If Duran is the DH, find someone to take 50% of Masa's salary and be done with it. 

[Hitch]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I read somewhere that Campbell would be a key piece in the Ryan trade, which I'm fine with, but I really hope we don't include Early or Tolle. I'd be fine adding Harrison or Clarke/Valera/Fajardo (just one SP'er prospect) and then maybe add a Sandlin/Mullins/Cespedes/Bleis or Murphy/Kelly/Guerrero/Moran type.

This could mean Duran DH's most of the time, with others rotating through when Duran plays LF or CF. That brings us back to where does Masa fit, but I'd be fine with him in AAA, on the bench or traded for some salary dump Pitcher, 1Bman, 3Bman or 2Bman. (I have yet to identify the right fit and team.)

I'm okay sending Tolle or Early as neither have proven anything - Ryan has proven plenty. You spend prospects on proven talent.  That said, if we can get away with moving neither and Campbell as the main piece, I'd be over the moon, moon.

[drewski6]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think dealing Early isn't the end of the world if it's to bring back a #2. His upside is most likely 4th starter. Tolle has a higher upside if he can figure out his secondaries. 

Not sure it makes financial sense to have Masa's 18M sitting on the bench for the majority of the season. If Duran is the DH, find someone to take 50% of Masa's salary and be done with it. 

I think Masa could work all offseason and emerge as an above average defensive first baseman, im not sure if that saves his spot though

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think dealing Early isn't the end of the world if it's to bring back a #2. His upside is most likely 4th starter. Tolle has a higher upside if he can figure out his secondaries. 

Not sure it makes financial sense to have Masa's 18M sitting on the bench for the majority of the season. If Duran is the DH, find someone to take 50% of Masa's salary and be done with it. 

I'd trade Masa f someone took 33% of his deal.

I think Duran is worth much more to another team as an OF'er than to us as a DH. That is why he has been my number one suggested trade candidate. That being said, our offense needs all the help it can get, and trading away one of our best offensive players seems counterintuitive, especially if JH won't pay to replace his and Devers' lost bats.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think Masa could work all offseason and emerge as an above average defensive first baseman, im not sure if that saves his spot though

A 5'8" RH 1B is not a great profile. 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm okay sending Tolle or Early as neither have proven anything - Ryan has proven plenty. You spend prospects on proven talent.  That said, if we can get away with moving neither and Campbell as the main piece, I'd be over the moon, moon.

Would Campbell and two from Clarke, Valera and Fajardo be enough for MN?

Would we then be able to trade Duran, Crawford &  Early for KMarte?

Sign a big bopper bat at corner infielder and bring back Matz & Ref and call it a winter.

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Harrison/Dobbins/Tolle/Fitts/Criswell/Perlales/Uberstine

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slatten, Matz, Weissert, Hicks, Bernardino, Murphy/Wink/Moran/Kelly/ Sandlin/Guerrero/Mullins/Campbell

1. L Anthony LF/RF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. L Abreu RF/R Refsnyder LF/DH

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Yoshida DH/R Romy DH/Garcia RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy, Ref, Garcia/Sogard/DHam/Eaton

[Hitch]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Would Campbell and two from Clarke, Valera and Fajardo be enough for MN?

Would we then be able to trade Duran, Crawford &  Early for KMarte?

Sign a big bopper bat at corner infielder and bring back Matz & Ref and call it a winter.

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, Harrison/Dobbins/Tolle/Fitts/Criswell/Perlales/Uberstine

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slatten, Matz, Weissert, Hicks, Bernardino, Murphy/Wink/Moran/Kelly/ Sandlin/Guerrero/Mullins/Campbell

1. L Anthony LF/RF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. L Abreu RF/R Refsnyder LF/DH

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Yoshida DH/R Romy DH/Garcia RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy, Ref, Garcia/Sogard/DHam/Eaton

Personally, I think Minnesota hang up and never talk to us again if we made that offer. 

[drewski6]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

A 5'8" RH 1B is not a great profile. 

I had forgotten he throws right cuz he bats left.  Yeah, thats a bit of a dampener on the plan.

Still more guys can hit than guys who can hit AND play 1b.  And im willing to go with a non ideal 1b if it means we can upgrade hoskins -> schwarber in the lineup.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I had forgotten he throws right cuz he bats left.  Yeah, thats a bit of a dampener on the plan.

Still more guys can hit than guys who can hit AND play 1b.  And im willing to go with a non ideal 1b if it means we can upgrade hoskins -> schwarber in the lineup.

I've thought of Duran at 1B to allow for Anthony to play LF FT, but I keep coming back to his value being higher to another team as an OF'er.

A Masa-Romy or Masa-Campbell platoon at 1B does not excite me, unless it to make room for Schwarber to be our DH.

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've thought of Duran at 1B to allow for Anthony to play LF FT, but I keep coming back to his value being higher to another team as an OF'er.

A Masa-Romy or Masa-Campbell platoon at 1B does not excite me, unless it to make room for Schwarber to be our DH.

I really didnt want to trade Duran last year mid-season but I am more open to it now, especially that his value seems to be quite high.

But we cant just swap him for a P and be fine with the offense that remains (you know this, but im not sure everybody does)

You can lose Bregman and Duran from last years noodlebat team.  Some seem to be fine with it (and then hope story opts out too).

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

I really didnt want to trade Duran last year mid-season but I am more open to it now, especially that his value seems to be quite high.

But we cant just swap him for a P and be fine with the offense that remains (you know this, but im not sure everybody does)

You can lose Bregman and Duran from last years noodlebat team.  Some seem to be fine with it (and then hope story opts out too).

Duran was worth way more last winter.

Did you mean to say "Can't lose Bregman, Duran and Story...."

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran was worth way more last winter.

Did you mean to say "Can't lose Bregman, Duran and Story...."

Last year, I would not have traded him for any player in mlb.  This year, I am open to trading Duran but I still expect a lot of value from him.

If we trade Duran for pitching, and lose Bregman and dont get a big bat....Even if story stays, the team will be impossible to watch.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Last year, I would not have traded him for any player in mlb.  This year, I am open to trading Duran but I still expect a lot of value from him.

If we trade Duran for pitching, and lose Bregman and dont get a big bat....Even if story stays, the team will be impossible to watch.

According to BTV, Duran alone could bring back an ace. I'm not sure I agree, but I do agree that we need a huge bat upgrade, and that's with keeping Bregman, Duran and Abreu!

Trading a corner OF'er means we need two big bats and Breggie. Is JH up to that challenge?

I doubt it.

We'll be lucky to get one from Bregman, Alonso or Schwarber, let alone two.

Expecting one of those three plus Suarez, Polanco or Bichetts is almost surely a pipedream, but IMO, it is what we need:  2 major bats and a solid #2 SP.

That;s rock bottom minimum, or I'll be expecting a borderline playoff team in 2026.

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

According to BTV, Duran alone could bring back an ace. I'm not sure I agree, but I do agree that we need a huge bat upgrade, and that's with keeping Bregman, Duran and Abreu!

Trading a corner OF'er means we need two big bats and Breggie. Is JH up to that challenge?

I doubt it.

We'll be lucky to get one from Bregman, Alonso or Schwarber, let alone two.

Expecting one of those three plus Suarez, Polanco or Bichetts is almost surely a pipedream, but IMO, it is what we need:  2 major bats and a solid #2 SP.

That;s rock bottom minimum, or I'll be expecting a borderline playoff team in 2026.

I can live without Suarez, Polanco, Bichette

But telling me that 2 from Bregman, Alonso, Schwarber is a pipe dream is heart breaking.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I can live without Suarez, Polanco, Bichette

But telling me that 2 from Bregman, Alonso, Schwarber is a pipe dream is heart breaking.

2 from those 3 does feel a pipe dream,  however.

Plus at some point (soonish) you'll essentially have 2 aging DHs on your team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Noooo -- you can't trade Yhoiker before I even learn how to say his name. 

Plus, he's still a teenager, and bound to lose a consonant as he matures. Guaraneed,

[notin]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

A 5'8" RH 1B is not a great profile. 

Not even if it’s the 4’1” Andrew Vaughn?

[notin]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I really didnt want to trade Duran last year mid-season but I am more open to it now, especially that his value seems to be quite high.

But we cant just swap him for a P and be fine with the offense that remains (you know this, but im not sure everybody does)

You can lose Bregman and Duran from last years noodlebat team.  Some seem to be fine with it (and then hope story opts out too).

That “noodlebat” team was 7th in MLB in runs scored and 7th to 11th in any metric you choose.  Their offense was basically the same as fellow postseason participants Seattle, Milwaukee, and San Diego.

Could they improve? Absolutely.  But the way it goes on this board, you’d think they had one of the worst lineups in recent MLB history…

[notin]

On 11/2/2025 at 3:30 PM, moonslav59 said:

I wonder if the cost of keeping Bregman (your #2) might prevent 1 or 3 from being affordable.

We could trade for one, but then we lose a bat like Duran's or Abreu's, too.

Folks keep talking about losing Duran or Abreu if we deal one of them.  Don’t we kinda already know who the replacement is?  

There is a reason it’s out there that these two are trade bait…

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I can live without Suarez, Polanco, Bichette

But telling me that 2 from Bregman, Alonso, Schwarber is a pipe dream is heart breaking.

 

6 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I can live without Suarez, Polanco, Bichette

But telling me that 2 from Bregman, Alonso, Schwarber is a pipe dream is heart breaking.

It's just my opinion, and it seems like MVP and notin seem to be setting sites low, so I'm hoping on tier twos.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Folks keep talking about losing Duran or Abreu if we deal one of them.  Don’t we kinda already know who the replacement is?  

There is a reason it’s out there that these two are trade bait…

Well, we had Anthony for 300 and Devers for 330, so it's not like we're adding a big bat to replace Duran or Abreu.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, notin said:

That “noodlebat” team was 7th in MLB in runs scored and 7th to 11th in any metric you choose.  Their offense was basically the same as fellow postseason participants Seattle, Milwaukee, and San Diego.

Could they improve? Absolutely.  But the way it goes on this board, you’d think they had one of the worst lineups in recent MLB history…

The problem was the end of the year when Breggie slumped and Anthony was injured. Otherwise, the Sox offense was fairly successful. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

It's just my opinion, and it seems like MVP and notin seem to be setting sites low, so I'm hoping on tier twos.

I just think JH isn't blowing anyone's doors off anymore. 🫠

He should! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I just think JH isn't blowing anyone's doors off anymore. 🫠

He should! 

If he's blowing cigar smoke into the fireplace, it will give us a clear picture since it won't cloud the camera lens.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem was the end of the year when Breggie slumped and Anthony was injured. Otherwise, the Sox offense was fairly successful. 

Anthony being out definitely hurt the offense.Bregman just ended up  back down to where his BA should have been, and he actually finished a little higher than he had in a few years. Bregman got off to a hot start this past year, and the year before he got off to a terrible start. He’s not a 300+ hitter.