Article: BREAKING: Red Sox Sign Alex Bregman to 3-Year Contract... With Opt-Outs

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, time to dream big again.  

I need to see it in ST before I can predict postseason stuff. I can up my regular season total to 88 wins though. 

[Hugh2]

We also haven't seen the deferred money yet.  Although I'm sure it probably only changed the NPV by a few million.  The cap hit is actually probably somewhere around 36-37 million. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

We also haven't seen the deferred money yet.  Although I'm sure it probably only changed the NPV by a few million.  The cap hit is actually probably somewhere around 36-37 million. 

SP projected 36M. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Excited to see how it all shakes out. Whatever starting line-up breaks camp will certainly not be the same one that opens the postseason. And that also includes the back end of the bullpen.

[Bellhorn04]

Cora must be absolutely amped.  Not only did he get the player he wanted, but he's got all kinds of new complications to figure out!

[Hitch]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed. I'm thinking the idea is Bregman will end up at 3B, even if he does not start the season there, but with the opt-outs, maybe not.

To me, this deal was already iffy, even with Bregman at 3B, but the short term made it fine. With Bregman at 2B, he's blocking Campbell (who could play RF) and Mayer, while keeping our corner IF defense the worst in MLB, by far- for no reason but to keep Devers from possibly pouting.

I hate the deal if it's for him to play 2B. He's a GG winning 3rd baseman and our current one is absolutely terrible out there. If he replaces Devers at 3rd I'm very much onside with the deal. Leave space for Campbell win that 2nd base job (or Grissom).

Can't shake the feeling Casas isn't safe yet, mind. There's been too much noise (and too often) for me to think he's safe yet. 

[Hugh2]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

SP projected 36M. 

Buster Olney is tweeting that the NPV of the contract is $90 million.  Which is insane, they'd have to have a lot of money deferred for that to happen, like around half. 

Feels weird.  and $30 million per year still puts them over the CBT so not sure what the advantage is unless the Sox want the option to be able to be able to make an extension without going over the 2nd threshold. Or two and 3rd. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Buster Olney is tweeting that the NPV of the contract is $90 million.  Which is insane, they'd have to have a lot of money deferred for that to happen, like around half. 

Feels weird.  and $30 million per year still puts them over the CBT so not sure what the advantage is unless the Sox want the option to be able to be able to make an extension without going over the 2nd threshold. Or two and 3rd. 

It's an advantage regardless, no?

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They are over the first CBT. https://soxprospects.com/payroll.htm

The deferred money part has not been confirmed, so how can anyone know?

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

The deferred money part has not been reported, so how can anyone know?

Because it would have to be an insane amount of deferred money to be under the CBT. 

Impossible to know without knowing the amount and the timeline but roughly half would have to be deferred to get back to the CBT.

It's a really good guess that they're above it

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Buster Olney is tweeting that the NPV of the contract is $90 million.  Which is insane, they'd have to have a lot of money deferred for that to happen, like around half. 

Feels weird.  and $30 million per year still puts them over the CBT so not sure what the advantage is unless the Sox want the option to be able to be able to make an extension without going over the 2nd threshold. Or two and 3rd. 

Maybe they are taking lessons from the Dodgers!!!

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe they are taking lessons from the Dodgers!!!

Well if they're going to do that they should have just given Soto 1 billion and landed Snell to go along with Crochet. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Well if they're going to do that they should have just given Soto 1 billion and landed Snell to go along with Crochet. 

Snell? No. 

Soto? Sure. 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Snell? No. 

Soto? Sure. 

Snell, or someone else, anyone else better than Buehler.   I'm actually really high on Buehler, but pitchers of his caliber with less injury risk this year were available but for more $$$. 

If you're taking lessons from the Dodgers I assume $$$ is less of an issue. 

[jad]

Just wait for LAD to fill their 40-man roster and have to start waiving veterans.  I don't think Mookie has options left, so the RS will be able to pick him up at vet's minimum. Breslow has no imagination.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Snell, or someone else, anyone else better than Buehler.   I'm actually really high on Buehler, but pitchers of his caliber with less injury risk this year were available but for more $$$. 

If you're taking lessons from the Dodgers I assume $$$ is less of an issue. 

Buehler got the most AAV for any one year deal. I think the Sox only wanted to go short on this SP crop. They liked Fried to a point and Burnes only had one destination in mind. Eovaldi/Manaea/Severino/Martinez/Kikuchi/Flaherty/Wacha I don't really care about. Aside from the top 2 guys, there wasn't a guy I thought they really needed to jump on since I really don't trust Snell. 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Because it would have to be an insane amount of deferred money to be under the CBT. 

Impossible to know without knowing the amount and the timeline but roughly half would have to be deferred to get back to the CBT.

It's a really good guess that they're above it

Probably, yes. Doesn't cots have us at $30M under?

[sk7326]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

It's a terrible plan, but at least it's a short term one. I'd still rather they move Devers off 3B, install Bregman there and add Campbell at 2B. If Story goes down, you can call up Mayer. 

I kind of think they aren't bringing up Mayer until the break at least.  

[Nick]

Seems like people are catching onto our non-seriousness! per Bellhorn on cheapness of JH

Here's my post from 1/27th. The topic was what to do with unspent $40M in luxury tax payroll for 2025 season on that date.

 

Unfortunately you're right.

I hate that our management has no imagination.

I KNOW that he wants a long term deal. I don't believe we should give him 5/6 year deal with what we have coming up.

This is when you become bold and tell Boras, come to Fenway for 1 year and hit 40HR and re-establish higher value. Here take $30-$35M on a one year deal.

The fact that they are unwilling to take any financial risk at this time (even just for one year deal) tells me that they are cheap and just wants to play the youngsters. That's fine if you are consistently in the playoffs but we're not.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

I kind of think they aren't bringing up Mayer until the break at least.  

If he's ready, he's ready. If Story goes down and Mayer is swinging the bat, why wait? 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Red Sox fans rejoice today. Whether you dislike Bregman or the overpay, you have to like Boston adding another good player to the roster. The other AL East contenders certainly don't.

The Sox will be a better team with Bregman on the field. Don't worry about his position, or how the super prospects will fit in (management will do the right thing). Also, keep in mind that half a dozen guys will tweak something before they leave Florida by the end of March.

And don't fret about losing a draft pick. Is it just coincidence this trade was announced after Pivetta signed with San Diego, assuring the Sox of getting a draft pick back?

Finally, don't worry about the opt outs; it's not like there are a bunch of clubs anxious to pay Alex $41 million next year when he's 32, or the year after when he's 33.  

Agreed. I do wish that there was only an opt out after year 2 , but I agree with you that its not a deal breaker or to fret about that he has an opt out after each year

[harmony]

Trevor Story provides an interesting comp.

Story was 29 years, five months and 11 days old in March 2022 when the Red Sox signed the two-time All Star infielder to a six-year, $140 million contract.

Alex Bregman is 30 years, 10 months and 20 days old as the Red Sox are expected to sign the two-time All Star infielder to a three-year, $120 million contract.

At the time of his signing, Story had posted 26.8 bWAR in 745 MLB games while Bregman has posted 39.6 bWAR in 1,111 games. Per 100 games Story had posted 3.597 bWAR and Bregman 3.537 bWAR.

Regardless, the Red Sox lineup is stronger this morning than it was yesterday morning.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

Trevor Story provides an interesting comp.

Story was 29 years, five months and 11 days old in March 2022 when the Red Sox signed the two-time All Star infielder to a six-year, $140 million contract.

Alex Bregman is 30 years, 10 months and 20 days old as the Red Sox are expected to sign the two-time All Star infielder to a three-year, $120 million contract.

At the time of his signing, Story had posted 26.8 bWAR in 745 MLB games while Bregman has posted 39.6 bWAR in 1,111 games. Per 100 games Story had posted 3.597 bWAR and Bregman 3.537 bWAR.

Regardless, the Red Sox lineup is stronger this morning than it was yesterday morning.

Deja vu? 

[Hugh2]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Probably, yes. Doesn't cots have us at $30M under?

IDK, but we most certainly are not 30 million under, also I doubt COTS or anyone has the correct number yet because no one knows what is deferred so the luxury tax payroll cost is impossible to predict at this point.  Although it's almost certainly somewhere around 35 million give or take.  I heard $30 is being reported but I don't know if I believe that. 

[sk7326]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If he's ready, he's ready. If Story goes down and Mayer is swinging the bat, why wait? 

To see if he can play 120 games without shattering into a thousand pieces. 

[sk7326]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Buehler got the most AAV for any one year deal. I think the Sox only wanted to go short on this SP crop. They liked Fried to a point and Burnes only had one destination in mind. Eovaldi/Manaea/Severino/Martinez/Kikuchi/Flaherty/Wacha I don't really care about. Aside from the top 2 guys, there wasn't a guy I thought they really needed to jump on since I really don't trust Snell. 

Yes.  Plus, I think once they landed Crochet, they felt they did not have to chase the same way.  

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

To see if he can play 120 games without shattering into a thousand pieces. 

What's the difference if he shatters in AAA or MLB? 

[mvp 78]

I don't think he'll forget to pull the ball at Fenway.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Did he bring his trash can with him? His WAR decreases by like 50% without it. 

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

Did he bring his trash can with him? His WAR decreases by like 50% without it. 

You nerd. His numbers went UP after the trash can scandal. 

2017 scandal: 4.0 bWAR

2018: 7.9 bWAR

2019: 8.9 bWAR