Article: BREAKING: Red Sox Sign Alex Bregman to 3-Year Contract... With Opt-Outs

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

35 minutes ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

Did he bring his trash can with him? His WAR decreases by like 50% without it. 

I heard he was bringing that letter from the sign-stealing investigation that said the Yankees cheated as much as Houston and Boston -- the one Commissioner Manfred admits he has, but refuses to release to the public.

[sk7326]

As far as the 2B/3B thing goes ... my guess is everybody would LOVE for Devers to initiate a move off of 3rd, and it makes more sense to give Cora (who obviously knows Bregman well) to navigate that.

[notin]

13 hours ago, a700hitter said:

I would have preferred Pete Alonso for 2 years /$54 million.  $40 million/year is an absurd amount for a guy that was the 4 th best hitter on his team.

Alonso would be a terrible solution at 2b…

[Nick]

This should be a 90 game winning team just having players healthier than last year.

2024

Casas 63 games and 212 AB

Story 26 games and 94 AB

Yoshida 108 games and 378 AB

Tyler 113 games and 411 AB (this is the right handed bat we're looking to replace with Bregman who has played 145, 161 and 155 games for Houston the last three years.)

Our defense will be much better with Story and Bregman in the linuup.

How can we not be optimistic?

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Nick said:

This should be a 90 game winning team just having players healthier than last year.

2024

Casas 63 games and 212 AB

Story 26 games and 94 AB

Yoshida 108 games and 378 AB

Tyler 113 games and 411 AB (this is the right handed bat we're looking to replace with Bregman who has played 145, 161 and 155 games for Houston the last three years.)

Our defense will be much better with Story and Bregman in the linuup.

How can we not be optimistic?

It's probably right to project the same amount of injuries, but maybe other players, but Casas, Story & Devers could be very impactful.

[bkzwhitestrican]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You nerd. His numbers went UP after the trash can scandal. 

2017 scandal: 4.0 bWAR

2018: 7.9 bWAR

2019: 8.9 bWAR

But the cheating wasn't uncovered until after the 2019 season

[Malcolm White]

12 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Bregman FWar the last 3 years has averaged 4.66.

If players are getting around $7.5 million per in free agency and Bregman were to average that in Boston he would be worth about $105 million dollars. 

If Bregman is not worth that, it's because he has fallen off a cliff.  If he falls off a cliff, imagine being on the hook to pay him $170 million+ over the next 6 years? That would be worse. 

The $5 million a year overpay, is not as extreme as people are making it out to be, and it's a more than fair premium to have the player on only 3 years and pay him until 33 years old without having to carry him at 34, 35, 36. 

 

One WAR is worth closer to $9M these days.  

[Malcolm White]

6 hours ago, Nick said:

This should be a 90 game winning team just having players healthier than last year.

2024

Casas 63 games and 212 AB

Story 26 games and 94 AB

Yoshida 108 games and 378 AB

Tyler 113 games and 411 AB (this is the right handed bat we're looking to replace with Bregman who has played 145, 161 and 155 games for Houston the last three years.)

Our defense will be much better with Story and Bregman in the linuup.

How can we not be optimistic?

Don't see the need to make anyone a full-time anything.

Having Bregman doesn't mean Devers never plays third again--it just means the Sox D will be better when he doesn't.

Doesn't mean Bregman will never play 2B.....but if Grissom/Ham/Campbell can play it, he won't play 2B very often.

Means Masa might hit (mostly) against RHP, against whom he's very good.

They're much deeper, erected a fall-back in case all of the 2Bs fail, and protected both Masa and Devers. I'd be thrilled if he opted out; it would mean he had a great season.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

But the cheating wasn't uncovered until after the 2019 season

When did the trashcan banging stop?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Malcolm White said:

Don't see the need to make anyone a full-time anything.

Having Bregman doesn't mean Devers never plays third again--it just means the Sox D will be better when he doesn't.

Doesn't mean Bregman will never play 2B.....but if Grissom/Ham/Campbell can play it, he won't play 2B very often.

Means Masa might hit (mostly) against RHP, against whom he's very good.

They're much deeper, erected a fall-back in case all of the 2Bs fail, and protected both Masa and Devers. I'd be thrilled if he opted out; it would mean he had a great season.

Well said.

I have to think the more Bregman plays 3B, the better we will be, but certainly times may arise, where other options might work out the same or better.

If Devers and Casas are mainly pair-sharing 1B/DH, they may be able to play close to 160 games, there, but Bregman will need some rest, so Devers might play 5-10 games at 3B. Masa could DH on those days. He could play LF on some other days, when Ref (v LHPs) or Duran are not in LF.

How well Rafaela does might dictate how much Duran plays CF vs LF, and how many opportunities Masa and Refsnyder get in LF (vs a DH platoon.)

How well Abreu hits LHPs can have an influence on CF and LF playing time for Duran and Rafaela.

When Anthony gets the call can have a major influence, at some point.

There are so many moving parts, options and opportunities for several players to shine or shift to another position, things could get very interesting if more than 9 guys are doing well (or more as parts of a platoon.)

Catcher is pretty set with Wong and Narvaez, but Narvaez could gain more and more playing time.

3B: Devers or Bregman (or a mix)

1B: Casas or Casas & Devers

DH: Casas, Casas & Devers or Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon

2B: Campbell? Bregman? A platoon of DHam & Romy or DHam & Grissom

SS: Sory, if healthy. Mayer, if not. Rafaela or Romy in a pinch.

LF: Duran. Duran w Masa/Ref. Masa-Ref platoon almost exclusively.

CF: Rafaela. Duran & Rafaela. Anthony?

RF: Abreu FT. Abreu-Rafaela platoon? Anthony FT (Anthony RF v LHPs and CF vs RHPs?)

It's enough to get the head spinning like the exorcist.

 

 

[bkzwhitestrican]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When did the trashcan banging stop?

No clue, but just from looking at the stats you can see a clear dip in his production after the news came out in Nov 2019.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

No clue, but just from looking at the stats you can see a clear dip in his production after the news came out in Nov 2019.

Don't need clues: it stopped after 2017- right before his best two seasons.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Don't need clues: it stopped after 2017- right before his best two seasons.

And all 30 MLB teams' managers, coaches, players and analytics departments all stopped trying to break the secret codes of opponents ever since. 

I know, because one of them told me in morse code on my bluetooth next to my molar that still has the silver metal alloy cavity filling that gets radio signals from the guy with the telescope in the Polo Grounds bleachers who tipped off Bobby Thomson so he could hit a high fastball for the Shot Heard Round The World. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Don't need clues: it stopped after 2017- right before his best two seasons.

It happened in 2018 as well.

[Hugh2]

Yes, I'm sure Alex Bregmans offensive production is reliant upon banging trash cans. 🙄

You guys do realize we have like......three Alex Bregman threads going???

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

But the cheating wasn't uncovered until after the 2019 season

It was talked about during 2018 and the lead up to the Sox/Dodgers WS. The official investigation was after 2019 because that's how slow MLB is.

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/houston-astros-accused-of-cheating-after-man-spotted-filming-opposing-dugout-mlb-investigating

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2018/10/mlb_playoffs_2018_houston_astros_cheat_steal_signs.html

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

No clue, but just from looking at the stats you can see a clear dip in his production after the news came out in Nov 2019.

The trashcan banging was limited to 2017 per MLB's reports. 

[mvp 78]

The 2018/19 claims were about the buzzers in the jerseys that were never substantiated. 

[Old Red]

38 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, I'm sure Alex Bregmans offensive production is reliant upon banging trash cans. 🙄

You guys do realize we have like......three Alex Bregman threads going???

When’s the last time the Red Sox had a $40M man. They’ll probably end up more than that.

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

When’s the last time the Red Sox had a $40M man. They’ll probably end up more than that.

EH, now more than ever it's the LT number that matters.  So I'd say he's more like the 30.9 million dollar man.

In the spirit of the conversation I'll ask when is the last time the Red Sox had a $30M man?

I think the answer may be the same. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

EH, now more than ever it's the LT number that matters.  So I'd say he's more like the 30.9 million dollar man.

In the spirit of the conversation I'll ask when is the last time the Red Sox had a $30M man?

I think the answer may be the same. 

Mookie.

But they didn't think he was worth it.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

EH, now more than ever it's the LT number that matters.  So I'd say he's more like the 30.9 million dollar man.

In the spirit of the conversation I'll ask when is the last time the Red Sox had a $30M man?

I think the answer may be the same. 

The LT number is one thing, but most of of what I’ve heard on the different sports venues being talked about is the $40M.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The LT number is one thing, but most of of what I’ve heard on the different sports venues being talked about is the $40M.

Yes $40 is the number being reported.  For luxury tax purposes the 30 million number is the one that really matters. 

The reality is we have no ideal what he's actually being paid cash wise. 

It could be $19 million dollars and starting in several years he could be getting a few million a year for a determined period of time.  

The timing matters.  $5 million dollars ten years from now is not $5 million today. 

What's being reported is the NPV of the contract, I think that's the best we can go off of for now is $30.9 million.  He will be physically getting paid less money than $30 million dollars in 2025. 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

When’s the last time the Red Sox had a $40M man. They’ll probably end up more than that.

Who cares about the money? Is it yours? 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Mookie.

But they didn't think he was worth it.

False, the most the Sox ever paid Mookie was $20 million dollars back in 2019. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Mookie.

But they didn't think he was worth it.

And they were wrong!

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The LT number is one thing, but most of of what I’ve heard on the different sports venues being talked about is the $40M.

The CBT number is much more important that the flat contract number that has no implications on how the Sox operate as a business. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Who cares about the money? Is it yours? 

I think people may care that John Henry has apparently at least grown his balls back.  Or at least one ball, if he can extend a few guys I'll give him credit for full growth of both balls. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

It happened in 2018 as well.

Not trash cans- just other methods, like the ones the Sox used.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

False, the most the Sox ever paid Mookie was $20 million dollars back in 2019. 

False? You asked the last time they had a $30 million dollar man.

They had him, but wouldn't pay to keep him. 

And we all knew someday soon after, they'd pay others -- who weren't as good -- more than that.