Article: BREAKING: Red Sox Sign Walker Buehler To One-Year Contract

[Alex Mayes]

A former All-Star and two-time World Series champion is headed to Boston.

The Red Sox continue to add to the pitching depth of the organization and likely have rounded out the starting rotation for 2025. According to Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports, the team has signed Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05-million contract with incentives that could push its value higher. Buehler was one of the postseason heroes for the Los Angeles Dodgers, closing the door on the New York Yankees in Game 5. He looks to build on that performance with a one-year prove-it deal in Boston. The deal is currently pending a physical.

From 2018 to 2021, Buehler was a dominant arm for the Dodgers. Over that period, he went 39-13, running with a 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP while striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings. He earned two All-Star selections and was named to All-MLB First Team in 2021. However, injuries derailed his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2022 (his second, after a 2016 UCL tear). He missed all of the 2023 season and returned in 2024, missing an additional 56 games due to hip inflammation. His combined numbers from before the injury in 2022 and 2024 are not as pretty. He went 7-9 and posted a 4.75 ERA and 4.74 FIP. His strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rate all fell off. Toward the end of the season, though, Buehler seemed to figure things out. He was electric during the postseason, running a 3.60 ERA and allowing just one home run over four appearances. The Red Sox are hoping that they're getting that most recent version of Buehler.

Adding Buehler to the rotation gives the Red Sox a pitcher with playoff experience, an important consideration considering the team's goals this season. In fact, in 19 postseason appearances and nearly 100 innings, Buehler is 4-1 with a 3.04 ERA. Buehler also represents another arm with injury concerns to go with Garrett Crochet. He represents yet another upside play, and another instance of the Red Sox betting on their training and pitching development staffs to get the best out of a player who has struggled recently.

We will have much more on this deal later today and tomorrow.

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[mvp 78]

Many of us have been asking for two starting pitchers in an offseason and they finally did it. I don't believe the 2022 season acquisitions of Wacha, Hill and Paxton count. 

[Zippo102]

Three pitchers acquired this off season and four Tommy john surgeries between them. Another year without NESN. Until he starts acting like he cares and we start trying to compete, he will not be getting my money!

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Many of us have been asking for two starting pitchers in an offseason and they finally did it. I don't believe the 2022 season acquisitions of Wacha, Hill and Paxton count. 

Why do they not count?

[Hitch]

No QO extended to Buehler by the Dodgers either. Means we can extend one next year if he pitches well.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

BUEHLAH-LUJAH!!!!

Some posters will just have to complain he was injured and might be again -- like a kajillion other pitchers... like all pitchers this decade this century.

But now there can be no doubt that the rotation that lost Pivetta and added Crochet and Buehler is upgraded.

So what if it's a one-year pillow contract -- if he has a good year and likes Boston, maybe he'll want to stay.

Meanwhile, find a nice pillow contract on your couch or recliner and enjoy the holidays...

[notin]

I have no faith in Buehler, but Breslow clearly does, scratching out Nick Pivetta’s name on that check and replacing it with Buehler’s.   And I’ll root for Walker to do we’ll…

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Hitch said:

No QO extended to Buehler by the Dodgers either. Means we can extend one next year if he pitches well.

Had the Dodgers extended a QO, it’s extremely likely Buehler would have accepted it.  Since he just accepted the same money/years with Boston…

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Many of us have been asking for two starting pitchers in an offseason and they finally did it. I don't believe the 2022 season acquisitions of Wacha, Hill and Paxton count. 

I think Wacha and Hill count, as both were not going to be on the IL to start the year, like Sandoval will be.

These guys have not changed, at all. The sham goes on, and on, and ...

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Why do they not count?

Paxton was a rehab guy and not going to pitch a full year at best.

Wacha had only pitched 124 innings the year prior after finishing up in the TB bullpen with a 1.1 fWAR. Hill was a mildly better acquisition coming off a career high 158 innings and 1.7 fWAR, but at 42 years old and didn't complete 6 innings in a start until mid May. 

Those acquisitions don't get the blood flowing. Hill had 1.8 fWAR in 23 and Wacha had 1.5. That's less fWAR than the top four 2024 BOS starters: Houck, Crawford, Bello and Pivetta. I think we've overstated what those acquisitions really brought to the team. 

[sk7326]

Buehler at least shows some very recent evidence of good form.  This is a good use of a short deal.  

[Tedballgame]

I had Buehler on my fantasy baseball team this year. He had about a 6.0 W.A.R.................I mean E.R.A.

[Duran Is The Man]

Walker's negative 1.3 bWAR last year had to have impressed them. or maybe it was his injury history that sold them. 

[moonslav59]

2019 was the last year we signed good SP'ers to more than a 2 year deal, unless you count the Bello deal. Both we already in the system. Sale got $145M/5 w an option and Nate got $68M/4. We never replaced Porcello's $83M/4 deal after 2019.

What we've done since then is a total joke.

2020: $6.5M/1 Perez

2021: $10M/1 Richards & $5M/1 Perez

2022: $10M/2 Paxton (out yr 1) $7M Wacha, $5M HIll

2023: $10M/1 Kluber

2024: $39M/2 Giolito

2025: $21M/1 Buehler, $18M/2 Sandoval (out most of yr 1)

So, AAV per year: $7M>$15M>$17M>$15M>$30M, and what did we get?

I get the fact that one year deals are supposed to be "less risky," but this plan has been backfiring since day one. If you look at the money spent in the last 2 years: $39M for 2 years of Gio+ $18M/2 for Sandoval (knowing it will be 1.3 yrs at best) + $21M for Buehler, it comes to $78M for basically  2 pitchers a year. That's $18M per pitcher x 2 or $39M a year. (This is counting Sandoval's 2026 season, so it's not really 2 calendar years.) 

We couldn't do better with this kind of money? Really?

God, this is just plain awful. I'm sick of this crapola.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like Buehler and see some parallels to Eovaldi -- a guy bouncing back from major surgery and surging in the most recent postseason. Both also beat the Yankees on the big stage.

Walker also has a better track record, a two-time All-Star receiving Cy Young votes. He's only 30, so less of a chance to be a Kluber in Beantown. If the Sox extend him, fans can only hope he evolves like Eovaldi did into his mid-30s (especially winning another ring)...

[Duran Is The Man]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

2019 was the last year we signed good SP'ers to more than a 2 year deal, unless you count the Bello deal. Both we already in the system. Sale got $145M/5 w an option and Nate got $68M/4. We never replaced Porcello's $83M/4 deal after 2019.

What we've done since then is a total joke.

2020: $6.5M/1 Perez

2021: $10M/1 Richards & $5M/1 Perez

2022: $10M/2 Paxton (out yr 1) $7M Wacha, $5M HIll

2023: $10M/1 Kluber

2024: $39M/2 Giolito

2025: $21M/1 Buehler, $18M/2 Sandoval (out most of yr 1)

So, AAV per year: $7M>$15M>$17M>$15M>$30M, and what did we get?

I get the fact that one year deals are supposed to be "less risky," but this plan has been backfiring since day one. If you look at the money spent in the last 2 years: $39M for 2 years of Gio+ $18M/2 for Sandoval (knowing it will be 1.3 yrs at best) + $21M for Buehler, it comes to $78M for basically  2 pitchers a year. That's $18M per pitcher x 2 or $39M a year. (This is counting Sandoval's 2026 season, so it's not really 2 calendar years.) 

We couldn't do better with this kind of money? Really?

God, this is just plain awful. I'm sick of this crapola.

Henry's approach is baffling. supposedly Price and Sale burned him on ever signing a long & large contract because they were both hurt all the time. so, he dumps them (and Mookie) and then proceeds to sign.... nothing but injured pitchers. 

[Jasonbay44]

Is Breslow only allowed to sign pitchers who’ve had major injuries? What is the deal with this? It’s almost comical at this point 

[mvp 78]

Buehler may see good results just from dropping his 4 seamer (29% usage).

2024 4 seamer:

-8 run value

696 SLG

481 wOBA

50.7% Hard Hit

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Is Breslow only allowed to sign pitchers who’ve had major injuries? What is the deal with this? It’s almost comical at this point 

It's how Henry gets to save money. Can't get the premium arms.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Henry's approach is baffling. supposedly Price and Sale burned him on ever signing a long & large contract because they were both hurt all the time. so, he dumps them (and Mookie) and then proceeds to sign.... nothing but injured pitchers. 

What baffles me is how many posters wanted Buehler and the injured pitcher, failed plan to continue.

Even if Buehler does great, I'm sick to death of this philosophy of avoiding the best pitchers to apparently save a buck or two. Is spending $78M on 4.3 yrs (assuming Sandoval gives us .3 in '25) really saving all that much?

I get the risk factor on shorter deals, but if we keep failing when spending $78M on shorter term deals, we aren't really saving more than just signing a pitcher to $20M x 6 years (except for the longer risk.)

We spent more on Gio, Buehler & Sandoval than...

$75M/3 Manaea (with deferred money)

$75M/3 Eovaldi

$67M/3 Severino (I would not have liked this deal, either)

$64M/3 Kikuchi

2024:

$75M/3 S Gray, $62M/2 Snell

$53M/4 Imanaga

$45M/3 Lugo

$32M/2 Wacha + $28M/2 Manaea total is less money!

We are getting worse on our pitcher signings- not better, despite spending more.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Is Breslow only allowed to sign pitchers who’ve had major injuries? What is the deal with this? It’s almost comical at this point 

Tragic comedy right before our eyes.

[FredLynn]

24 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I like Buehler and see some parallels to Eovaldi -- a guy bouncing back from major surgery and surging in the most recent postseason. Both also beat the Yankees on the big stage.

Walker also has a better track record, a two-time All-Star receiving Cy Young votes. He's only 30, so less of a chance to be a Kluber in Beantown. If the Sox extend him, fans can only hope he evolves like Eovaldi did into his mid-30s (especially winning another ring)...

He's another reclamation project, not a quality SP the likes of which we need to become relevant. Henry is trying to do it on the cheap AGAIN. Where's Burnes? Or that Japanese ace who was just posted? More mediocrity......

[moonslav59]

Just now, FredLynn said:

He's another reclamation project, not a quality SP the likes of which we need to become relevant. Henry is trying to do it on the cheap AGAIN. Where's Burnes? Or that Japanese ace who was just posted? More mediocrity......

We can't outbid anyone on Sasaki, so that's not about JH being cheap.

Buehler over Burnes is. Hell, Buehler over Flaherty or even gasp... Pivetta is being cheap, too.

Hell, Kikuchi and Manaea are looking like good deals.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

He's another reclamation project, not a quality SP the likes of which we need to become relevant. Henry is trying to do it on the cheap AGAIN. Where's Burnes? Or that Japanese ace who was just posted? More mediocrity......

When the Sox miss out on Sasaki, everyone is going to blame Henry for some reason. There are clear arguments for Henry being cheap, missing out on Roki Sasaki will not be one of them. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We can't outbid anyone on Sasaki, so that's not about JH being cheap.

Buehler over Burnes is. Hell, Buehler over Flaherty or even gasp... Pivetta is being cheap, too.

Hell, Kikuchi and Manaea are looking like good deals.

Flaherty has similar injury red flags to Buehler. It's just picking your poison at that point. At least they went out and grabbed a starter to better their rotation. 

I didn't think there was any realistic chance they'd be shopping at the top of the market for a starter once they traded for Crochet. 

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We can't outbid anyone on Sasaki, so that's not about JH being cheap.

Buehler over Burnes is. Hell, Buehler over Flaherty or even gasp... Pivetta is being cheap, too.

Hell, Kikuchi and Manaea are looking like good deals.

Henry is a multi-BILLIONAIRE. He can outbid just about anyone for Sasaki if he wanted to. He's not interested in making the team competitive. He's interested in making money. I get that that is his right. But as fans no one should be going to the park or buying Red Sox products until there is evidence he's serious about making the team relevant.

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

When the Sox miss out on Sasaki, everyone is going to blame Henry for some reason. There are clear arguments for Henry being cheap, missing out on Roki Sasaki will not be one of them. 

Sure it is.

Remember: the team has claimed to be  "very interested" in Sasaki, like a whole lot of other talented players they never get.

[Bellhorn04]

Well I wanted it, so yeah, I like it. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

Henry is a multi-BILLIONAIRE. He can outbid just about anyone for Sasaki if he wanted to. He's not interested in making the team competitive. He's interested in making money. I get that that is his right. But as fans no one should be going to the park or buying Red Sox products until there is evidence he's serious about making the team relevant.

No, they can't. Go read up on what teams are allowed to bid on Sasaki before continuing down this path. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

Sure it is.

No it really isn't Pumpsie.