A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Okay, I'm a little less upset than I was yesterday, but I still feel like we will come far short of the minimum I felt we needed to add to make us a playoff favorite. (Asking for more than just that seems like a joke.)

We lost Pivetta, who was our most steady SP'er since 2020. We lost Jansen and Martin, the two best RP'ers we've had since 2018, from an already piss-poor pen. (Worst in MLB over the second half of '24.)

I realize it is just mid December, but we have essentially added Giolito, Chapman and Wilson, and helpful FA options are dwindling. I've always been fine with a big trade, but only if it was part of a larger group of quality player plan. To me, we are down to less than a handful of big impact FAs, so we basically have to get one plus a big trade or two big trades, which would hurt the bright future we seem to have. 

I'm sick of hearing how close we have come before being out bid. Countless stories of "being seriously interested" is so and so. New ways of saying "full throttle." 

I guess Burnes would be nice, but why think we will overpay for him, when we would not for others? A Bregman signing would greatly improve our corner IF defense, but why choose him to overpay? Maybe they shut me up by adding Burnes, Crochet, a decent defensive catcher (not McCann as mentioned in MLBTR, today) and possibly a power RHB, but I'm seeing those hopes fade away.

Right from the start, I've said my expectations are zero, but I did let my hopes get up, and I think I blurred my hopes into expectations, a bit too much. Now, I'm back to earth and expecting nothing more than make Pivetta, Kittredge and Elias Diaz with some big hopes that our prospects turn out to be Fred Lynn and Jim Rice.

[Old Red]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Whatever gets people through the day. 

Lots, and lots of make believe, and hoping for fairy tales to come true.

[Hugh2]

I remember suggesting the Corbin Burnes might approach 280-300 million during the season and was crucified, so badly I convinced myself it was dumb. 

But I'm reminding of what I tell myself time after time, Always take the over in the market for pitching.  The cost has gone up, is going up, and will only continue to go up.  Back of the rotation starters like Pivetta are going to be getting $20 million per year or close to it.  While I don't think Burnes eclipses $300 million he's probably getting around $250 if not more. 

If you trade for Crochet, you're not extending him if he's not getting around $30 million per year, even buying out those 3 years.  Otherwise, why wouldn't he just bet on himself when he sees what these guys get?

It would look really bad, if you traded away guys like Mayer/Abreu/Crawford to trade for Crochet, and in a year or two he goes down.  I'd rather of just signed Burnes or Fried, at that point at the very least you've just burnt money, and not money and the players. 

Ownership obviously thinks very different than I do. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I remember suggesting the Corbin Burnes might approach 280-300 million during the season and was crucified, so badly I convinced myself it was dumb. 

You really need to stop getting crucified so often!

[a700hitter]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They have struggled to understand the "market" ever since the dumb "no pitchers over 30" nonsense. 

The A’s who don’t have a city, a stadium or fans have signed a starting pitcher to a multiple year contract, but the Red Sox have done nothing.  That is disturbing.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

The A’s who don’t have a city, a stadium or fans have signed a starting pitcher to a multiple year contract, but the Red Sox have done nothing.  That is disturbing.

The A's HAD TO. If they didn't sign a big contract, the were going to have an MLBPA grievance filed against them (based on rules regarding money spent on payroll for teams that get revenue sharing). They still may have to spend another 20M or so. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Arenado listed the Red Sox as one of the six teams he'd wave his no-trade clause to play for. The Yankees are not on there. Then I read Bradford saying Arenado had volunteered to move to first base, and that was probable if he came to Boston...

WHAAAAAAAATTTT?!?!?!?!?!

Arenado is one of the best fielding third basemen in baseball history, the Red Sox' infield defense is a bad joke, and they want to trade for him to try a new position? His offense hit career lows last year, so how exactly would he and his $32 million dollar salary help THE REBUILD? Catching throws from inaccurate wild arms?

Sorry, patients. We all have to be patients... of the psych ward reserved for Red Sox fans waiting... every offseason this decade.

[moonslav59]

I only trade for Arenado, if it means moving Devers to 1B ot DH/1B. Otherwise, they can keep him.

Now, if they take Yoshida, I might be okay with trading for him to play 1B, until we move devers there, and then trading Casas for a good pitcher.

[Thunder]

White Sox want Roman Anthony for Crochet so that's a hard pass

[notin]

1 minute ago, Thunder said:

White Sox want Roman Anthony for Crochet so that's a hard pass

Agreed.

Mayer?  I deal.

Campbell?  I think about it.

Anthony? Nope.  Best of luck, Getz, for passing on the MLB.com #7 prospect…

[Thunder]

Maybe if it was Greek Anthony, I would do it. But, I don't know, there just something about those Romans...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I only trade for Arenado, if it means moving Devers to 1B ot DH/1B. Otherwise, they can keep him.

Now, if they take Yoshida, I might be okay with trading for him to play 1B, until we move devers there, and then trading Casas for a good pitcher.

Arenado has 10 Gold Gloves, same as Mike Schmidt, who had a career dWAR of 18.4. Arenado has a career dWAR of 20.1, and he's still only 33.

Devers may not be a Gold Glover at third base, but someday he may win the Vezina Trophy (given to the NHL's best goalie) -- nobody in baseball makes more kick saves or deflects more shots with his glove than Raffy. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The A's HAD TO. If they didn't sign a big contract, the were going to have an MLBPA grievance filed against them (based on rules regarding money spent on payroll for teams that get revenue sharing). They still may have to spend another 20M or so. 

The A's have to get their payroll up to $110 million I believe. 

Their situation is certainly unique, and a bad point of comparison but still.....how s***** would it feel to lose Corbin Burnes to the A's. 

It's really starting to feel like we are getting s***** presents under our Christmas tree this year. 

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Arenado has 10 Gold Gloves, same as Mike Schmidt, who had a career dWAR of 18.4. Arenado has a career dWAR of 20.1, and he's still only 33.

Devers may not be a Gold Glover at third base, but someday he may win the Vezina Trophy (given to the NHL's best goalie) -- nobody in baseball makes more kick saves or deflects more shots with his glove than Raffy. 

Like it, or not, but Cora said again a couple of days ago that Raffy was not getting moved off 3B. I know it’s been a hot topic on here for the past few years to get Raffy off 3B, but Cora is NOT listening, and if he was he  wouldn’t pay any attention anyway. Keep up the good work of critiquing though.

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

Agreed.

Mayer?  I deal.

Campbell?  I think about it.

Anthony? Nope.  Best of luck, Getz, for passing on the MLB.com #7 prospect…

Some scouts have Campbell ahead of Anthony FWIW. 

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The A's have to get their payroll up to $110 million I believe. 

Their situation is certainly unique, and a bad point of comparison but still.....how s***** would it feel to lose Corbin Burnes to the A's. 

It's really starting to feel like we are getting s***** presents under our Christmas tree this year. 

It would be hilarious if that were to happen. That would be the Emperor Has No Clothes moment. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Like it, or not, but Cora said again a couple of days ago that Raffy was not getting moved off 3B. I know it’s been a hot topic on here for the past few years to get Raffy off 3B, but Cora is NOT listening, and if he was he  wouldn’t pay any attention anyway. Keep up the good work of critiquing though.

I see, so Cora is going to the DR this week to specifically NOT talk about the possibility of moving Devers off 3B. Makes sense. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

https://nypost.com/2024/12/11/sports/red-sox-nation-going-into-panic-mode-as-they-seriously-keep-missing-out-on-big-names/

[mvp 78]

If anyone is panicking now, they must have slept through the past several offseasons. 

[Duran Is The Man]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

https://nypost.com/2024/12/11/sports/red-sox-nation-going-into-panic-mode-as-they-seriously-keep-missing-out-on-big-names/

they are not wrong. the $4 million in net spending last year (only ahead of the Rays and Marlins) is ridiculous. 

[Duran Is The Man]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

If anyone is panicking now, they must have slept through the past several offseasons. 

it's the same ******** year after year.

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I see, so Cora is going to the DR this week to specifically NOT talk about the possibility of moving Devers off 3B. Makes sense. 

Did Cora just say a couple of days ago that Raffy was not moving off 3B? The answer is YES, and that’s all I’m saying. You can look at that anyway you want to fit your narrative.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Arenado has 10 Gold Gloves, same as Mike Schmidt, who had a career dWAR of 18.4. Arenado has a career dWAR of 20.1, and he's still only 33.

Devers may not be a Gold Glover at third base, but someday he may win the Vezina Trophy (given to the NHL's best goalie) -- nobody in baseball makes more kick saves or deflects more shots with his glove than Raffy. 

To me, Devers throwing is the major issue. At 1B, he'd be a fine goalie.

[moonslav59]

Wow, Teel, Montgomery, Meidroth and Wikelman. (Only one on the 40.)

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the full deal sends Teel, outfield prospect Braden Montgomery, infield prospect Chase Meidroth and right-hander starting pitching prospect Wikelman Gonzalez to the White Sox.

[Larry Cook]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow, Teel, Montgomery, Meidroth and Wikelman. (Only one on the 40.)

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the full deal sends Teel, outfield prospect Braden Montgomery, infield prospect Chase Meidroth and right-hander starting pitching prospect Wikelman Gonzalez to the White Sox.

Teel really stings 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

[a700hitter]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The A's HAD TO. If they didn't sign a big contract, the were going to have an MLBPA grievance filed against them (based on rules regarding money spent on payroll for teams that get revenue sharing). They still may have to spend another 20M or so. 

So we may lose out on a FA to the A’s?  Jeesh!

[notin]

Crochet for Teel, Montgomery, Meidroth and Wikelman? 
 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/red-sox-on-the-verge-of-garrett-crochet-trade.html

[moonslav59]

That's more than I thought it would take to get 2 years of an injury-prone pitcher with a half season of success.

I guess the going rate is pretty high.

What can we get for Crawford or Bello?

[Hitch]

Steep price to pay.