A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, we're not insanely unlucky IMHO - although Henry would probably like us to think that.

As someone put it, the Dodgers have an entire pitching staff on the IL.

But they've somehow managed to succeed anyway.

I'm specifically talking about Chris Sale the individual and not the Boston Red Sox. 

It's bad luck, I suppose for lack of a better term because I don't believe in luck that he couldn't string together a long bill of health here and he finally does it after he's been traded. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Somehow? 

Freeman, Teoscar, Mookie, Ohtani, Edman, Will Smith, Muncy

Flaherty, Buehler, Yamamoto

It's almost as if they've an insanely deep roster because they spend a lot of money on talent. 

[mvp 78]

55 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It's almost as if they've an insanely deep roster because they spend a lot of money on talent. 

The Red Sox should consider doing that again. 

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Hello, I am new. I couldn't reply to anyone's comment so I will say that I was somewhat satisfied with the lack of movement at the trade deadline, though thought they would've done better. I don't know why John Henry got rid of Mookie or Jon Lester before him, for that matter but think he came up with a good nucleus of a team, sans pitching, which needs help. I thought getting rid of Sale was OK because maybe he just needed a new place. 

Welcome to the site!

[moonslav59]

While we shouldn't have expected much from pitchers signed between $5-10M for 1 year, we did not really get what might have been expected. We also got way less from Sale than we paid, and barely broke even with Nate. Barnes? Yuck.

Call it bad luck or poor chocies... whatever.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

While we shouldn't have expected much from pitchers signed between $5-10M for 1 year, we did not really get what might have been expected. We also got way less from Sale than we paid, and barely broke even with Nate. Barnes? Yuck.

Call it bad luck or poor chocies... whatever.

In my book, if you break even on a FA pitcher that's a huge win.  Nothing wrong with getting equal value, thats the way it should be. 

Nate was one of our success stories in FA signings in recent years. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

In my book, if you break even on a FA pitcher that's a huge win.  Nothing wrong with getting equal value, thats the way it should be. 

Nate was one of our success stories in FA signings in recent years. 

I have no problem with the Nate extension. He missed some time, but he did well, almost every year he was healthy. Overall, it was net plus, but pretty close to break even, which is what you want with FA signings.

[jdc69]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome to Talk Sox!

Thanks

[moonslav59]

Sign: Tanner Scott, Nick Martinez & Yasmani Grandal

Trade: Abreu, DHam & Wink for Mason Miller a really good RP'er

1. Duran LF

2. Devers 3B

3. Story SS

4. Casas 1B

5. Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon DH

6. Campbell 2B

7. Anthony RF

8. Gandal/Wong C

9. Rafaela CF

(Bench: Ref, Wong, DHam, Grissom)

SP: Houck, Martinez, Bello, Crawford, Giolito

RP: Scott, __RP via trade___, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Criswell, Fulmer, Guerrero

[Tedballgame]

Can DHam play for Oakland and Boston? You have him traded for Miller and on Red Sox bench:)

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

Can DHam play for Oakland and Boston? You have him traded for Miller and on Red Sox bench:)

I meant Romy on the bench

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

In my book, if you break even on a FA pitcher that's a huge win.  Nothing wrong with getting equal value, thats the way it should be. 

Nate was one of our success stories in FA signings in recent years. 

The deal was 4/68. According to FanGraphs, his value was 58M over those 4 years and largely because of one season. 

[Bellhorn04]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The deal was 4/68. According to FanGraphs, his value was 58M over those 4 years and largely because of one season. 

Don't forget the 2020 adjustment!  It makes him just about Even Steven.  

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Don't forget the 2020 adjustment!  It makes him just about Even Steven.  

He was having a pretty good year in 2020. Maybe a longer season makes the value even better? IDK. It wasn't the worst deal in the world, but it didn't really knock my socks off.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He was having a pretty good year in 2020. Maybe a longer season makes the value even better? IDK. It wasn't the worst deal in the world, but it didn't really knock my socks off.

He was more consistent in 2023-2024, worth about 20 mill each year.

[notin]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sign: Tanner Scott, Nick Martinez & Yasmani Grandal

Trade: Abreu, DHam & Wink for Mason Miller a really good RP'er

1. Duran LF

2. Devers 3B

3. Story SS

4. Casas 1B

5. Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon DH

6. Campbell 2B

7. Anthony RF

8. Gandal/Wong C

9. Rafaela CF

(Bench: Ref, Wong, DHam, Grissom)

SP: Houck, Martinez, Bello, Crawford, Giolito

RP: Scott, __RP via trade___, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Criswell, Fulmer, Guerrero

Higashioka over Grandal…

[Hugh2]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The deal was 4/68. According to FanGraphs, his value was 58M over those 4 years and largely because of one season. 

are 3 $10 million dollar seasons more valuable that 1 $30?

I suppose that's arguable, but if say.....the Sox won the pennant in 2021 (and they were two games away from doing so) I'd say reverse is true. 

[Hugh2]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The deal was 4/68. According to FanGraphs, his value was 58M over those 4 years and largely because of one season. 

Also, didn't he only get paid $53.00 because of the covid year? So in essence he actually beat his projection. 

I think that's winning in free agency, if all our free agent signing over the last five years equaled or beat projections we'd probably have a worse farm system right now (pessimistic take)

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

are 3 $10 million dollar seasons more valuable that 1 $30?

I suppose that's arguable, but if say.....the Sox won the pennant in 2021 (and they were two games away from doing so) I'd say reverse is true. 

So much randomness in play here LOL

But along the same lines, I always thought David Price earned a big chunk of his contract in the 2018 ALCS and WS.  The ring is the thing.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Also, didn't he only get paid $53.00 because of the covid year? So in essence he actually beat his projection. 

In 2020 players got paid on a pro-rated basis, so about 40% of full salary.  Eovaldi would have lost about $10 mill out of $17.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Also, didn't he only get paid $53.00 because of the covid year? So in essence he actually beat his projection. 

I think that's winning in free agency, if all our free agent signing over the last five years equaled or beat projections we'd probably have a worse farm system right now (pessimistic take)

Dear Mr Well Actually, he was paid $57.3M over the life of the contract including the COVID adjustment. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So much randomness in play here LOL

But along the same lines, I always thought David Price earned a big chunk of his contract in the 2018 ALCS and WS.  The ring is the thing.

Price definitely underperformed his contract, but the Sox needed to sign a guy like him. They should have just signed Max a year beforehand. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In 2020 players got paid on a pro-rated basis, so about 40% of full salary.  Eovaldi would have lost about $10 mill out of $17.

Pro-ratings were only for the pro players, and not the 300 members of the front office (number courtesy of WEEI), which never stops machinating...

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Pro-ratings were only for the pro players, and not the 300 members of the front office (number courtesy of WEEI), which never stops machinating...

Henry did force pay cuts on fulltime employees very early on into COVID and also had no problem laying off a bunch of staff later in the year. Pathetic for a billionaire IMO. 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2020/05/30/red-sox-full-time-employees-pay-cut/

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/09/17/red-sox-announce-more-layoffs-as-covid-19-continues-to-take-its-toll/

[Old Red]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Price definitely underperformed his contract, but the Sox needed to sign a guy like him. They should have just signed Max a year beforehand. 

The Red Sox should have just resigned Lester in the first place for half the cost of Price.

[Hugh2]

52 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox should have just resigned Lester in the first place for half the cost of Price.

Unpopular take, but I can always flex that it was the same take I had 10 years ago.  Sox should have gone after Scherzer. 

[Bellhorn04]

52 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox should have just resigned Lester in the first place for half the cost of Price.

I find that blunders don't bother me quite as much when we get a ring out of it.

[notin]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He was having a pretty good year in 2020. Maybe a longer season makes the value even better? IDK. It wasn't the worst deal in the world, but it didn't really knock my socks off.

It’s hard to score him fairly for 2020.

Eovaldi’s main flaw is durability.  You can’t penalize him for 9 starts and 48 IP in a 60 game season.  But you can’t really credit him for his durability in it either.

He had a bad 2019.  An outstanding 2021.  And a moderate/questionable 2022….

 

 

[oldtimer]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sign: Tanner Scott, Nick Martinez & Yasmani Grandal

Trade: Abreu, DHam & Wink for Mason Miller a really good RP'er

1. Duran LF

2. Devers 3B

3. Story SS

4. Casas 1B

5. Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon DH

6. Campbell 2B

7. Anthony RF

8. Gandal/Wong C

9. Rafaela CF

(Bench: Ref, Wong, DHam, Grissom)

SP: Houck, Martinez, Bello, Crawford, Giolito

RP: Scott, __RP via trade___, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Criswell, Fulmer, Guerrero

As usual, a well thought out suggestion for improving the Sox. I have a little different take as I like an outfield of Duran, Anthony, Abreu and Refsnyder with Rafaela on the 40 man but getting a AAA assignment to improve his hitting. That outfield is fairly young, athletic and plays good defense although admittedly is not balanced at the plate.

An infield of Casas, Campbell, Story and Devers also makes sense although Devers at 31.5 Mil a year through 2033 makes me wonder if we will carry dead weight that will hurt us along the way. Grissom is a talented and young guy with upside if he can stay healthy. He is insurance in the infield and could add balance to the lineup. 

Wong and one other at catcher. Teel is not ready but a long term FA may not be needed as I expect Teel may make the jump in 2026.

Yoshida can hit and as a result may be of interest to another team who isn't as lefty  biased  as we are. Unloading his salary makes more sense to me and then Refsnyder, Devers, Casas or Grissom can DH.

I am not sold on a right hand power hitter with a high strikeout rate. If we do get one perhaps he should be able  to cover ist base when facing left hand starters. Perhaps keeping DHam makes sense for his speed, defense and versatility and trading from some of our other prospect talent to land a ist lline left hand starter and two quality arms for the bull pen although more likely much of the BP may have to come from the FA ranks.

I'm interested why you didn't mention Mayer.

 

 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Higashioka over Grandal…

I only listed Grandal, because I think he can be signed to a one year deal, and that is what JH will want. (He will also cost less, so double bonus for JH & his wallet.)