A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To be brutal about it, Devers is half the player, making about the same money. 

Love Devers. I'd rather Devers be on the Yankees and still have Mookie. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

If you could have either of these two players straight up for the Sox, who would you take? Devers vs Soto?

Soto, but he's going to be almost twice the price IMO. 

Mookie is the value deal now!

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Soto, but he's going to be almost twice the price IMO. 

Mookie is the value deal now!

Soto will be a Yankee, a Dodger, a Phillie, or a Met.  The rest of the league will either pass or serve as bidding war fodder…

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Soto will be a Yankee, a Dodger, a Phillie, or a Met.  The rest of the league will either pass or serve as bidding war fodder…

Thanks Cap!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At least bitter Yankee fans today can take solace in two images from the '24 finale:

Mookie driving in the run that won the World Series, and Verdugo whiffing on a dirtball to end it.

The perfect postscript to the dumbest trade in Red Sox history!

And there will be more in the years to come... unless Fitts ever Ks Betts to win one for Boston.

[Duran Is The Man]

10 hours ago, notin said:

They pretty much all make stupid money…

yeah.....but then there is X man money. now THAT was stoopid money.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Betts is the most complete player in the game and I'm not sure who's close.  And of course John Henry is a complete _______ for letting him go.

i think it's hilarious. it just makes Henry look worse and worse every year. what a greedy f***ing idiot he is.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah.....but then there is X man money. now THAT was stoopid money.

Padres were just trying to sign people for their dying owner at that point. Horrible contract. Probably 100M too much. 

[Bellhorn04]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Padres were just trying to sign people for their dying owner at that point. Horrible contract. Probably 100M too much. 

And they had to outbid other teams.

And we go from that to Boras's Big Four getting stiffed the following year.

Strange doin's. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And they had to outbid other teams.

And we go from that to Boras's Big Four getting stiffed the following year.

Strange doin's. 

I believe Boras had offers on the table and held his players out as long as possible. I think teams are a little over it. Also, his FA guys were all flawed in one respect or another. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I believe Boras had offers on the table and held his players out as long as possible. I think teams are a little over it. Also, his FA guys were all flawed in one respect or another. 

Bogaerts was flawed too.

There are hardly any flawless ones IMHO. 

Plus Boras has always done things this way.  Still strikes me as a tad weird.

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Is grandal an improvement over Jansen 

Maybe similar, but I think Jansen gets 2-3 years.

I think we want a one year bridge to Teel. Now, if management does not want Wong catching as much, due to his awful defense. Will we trade Wong? I doubt it, but we have to think he's not a long term solution, unless he improves his defense, significantly and soon. Would we even want him as a 20-25% catcher?

I'd prefer Higgy or Jansen, but I just don't think we give the years these guys want.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bogaerts was flawed too.

There are hardly any flawless ones IMHO. 

Plus Boras has always done things this way.  Still strikes me as a tad weird.

Xander was a much more complete player than Chapman and much more consistent than Bellinger. Those two guys had a lot of warts. Snell is a rollercoaster of a pitcher. Montgomery was a career #3 who went on one hot run. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe similar, but I think Jansen gets 2-3 years.

I think we want a one year bridge to Teel. Now, if management does not want Wong catching as much, due to his awful defense. Will we trade Wong? I doubt it, but we have to think he's not a long term solution, unless he improves his defense, significantly and soon. Would we even want him as a 20-25% catcher?

I'd prefer Higgy or Jansen, but I just don't think we give the years these guys want.

Yup, the Sox will be going the cheaper route at C. No reason to invest at that position right now. 

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Xander was a much more complete player than Chapman and much more consistent than Bellinger. Those two guys had a lot of warts. 

I know Chapman has the stigma of being heavily endorsed by notin, but still...

Chapman 31.2 fWAR 4235 PA = 4.42 fWAR per 600 PA

Bogaerts 40.7 fWAR 6517 PA = 3.75 fWAR per 600 PA

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I know Chapman has the stigma of being heavily endorsed by notin, but still...

Chapman 31.2 fWAR 4235 PA = 4.42 fWAR per 600 PA

Bogaerts 40.7 fWAR 6517 PA = 3.75 fWAR per 600 PA

This is through 2024 not when Chapman was a FA last offseason. Xander had growing pains early on in his career while Chapman didn't become an MLBer until he was 24. Sample includes a very good '24 Chapman and a very poor '24 Bogaerts. We're talking about where they were at the time of FA, not after. 

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I know Chapman has the stigma of being heavily endorsed by notin, but still...

Chapman 31.2 fWAR 4235 PA = 4.42 fWAR per 600 PA

Bogaerts 40.7 fWAR 6517 PA = 3.75 fWAR per 600 PA

Bogaerts gets a l ot of his value from positional points (SS) and hardly ever being hurt.

The fWAR per 600 takes the injury aspect away.

Here is a breakdown of value on fangraphs value page:

Bogey: 1530 games

128 Batting

-30 Fielding

26 Base Running

60 "Positional Vlaue"

Chapman: 1022 games

94 Batting

49 Fielding

7 Base Running

15 Positional Value

Take away positional value, since Bogey was a negative on defense, here is the "value" per game of Batting+Fielding+ Running:

Bogey 0.120 (184/1530)

Chapman 0.147 (150/1022) That's 23% more than Bogey

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

This is through 2024 not when Chapman was a FA last offseason. Xander had growing pains early on in his career while Chapman didn't become an MLBer until he was 24. Sample includes a very good '24 Chapman and a very poor '24 Bogaerts. We're talking about where they were at the time of FA, not after. 

Are you really gonna make me re-work the numbers to show Chapman would still be higher? 

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Are you really gonna make me re-work the numbers to show Chapman would still be higher? 

Don't bother. Just say that "mvp, you were right" like everyone else does. 

[moonslav59]

I know a lot of people think we could have gotten Bogey to sign for $160M/6, long ago. I'm not so sure, but for argument's sake, let's say we got him to sign for $180M/6 or $220M/8, how would Sox Nation be talking about that extension, right now, assuming he put up the same numbers as he did with the Padres?

.747 OPS (106 OPS+ vs 117 with BOS and 133 from '18-'22)

per 650: .276 17 60

These are Yoshi-like numbers. All the talk of how we messed up the Bogey extension MAY HAVE BEEN premature. (Emphasis on "MAY.")

[moonslav59]

Per MLB.com

Five of Boston’s Top 30 Prospects must be protected to avoid inclusion in the Rule 5 Draft: OF Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 12), OF Allan Castro (No. 19), RHP Hunter Dobbins (No. 21), RHP Yordanny Monegro (No. 25) and 3B/1B Blaze Jordan (No. 26). The deadline for clubs to add players to their 40-man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 Draft is Nov. 19 at 6 p.m. ET.

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Per MLB.com

Five of Boston’s Top 30 Prospects must be protected to avoid inclusion in the Rule 5 Draft: OF Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 12), OF Allan Castro (No. 19), RHP Hunter Dobbins (No. 21), RHP Yordanny Monegro (No. 25) and 3B/1B Blaze Jordan (No. 26). The deadline for clubs to add players to their 40-man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 Draft is Nov. 19 at 6 p.m. ET.

Dobbins - Yes

Garcia - Maybe

Castro - No

Monegro - No

Blaze - No

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I know a lot of people think we could have gotten Bogey to sign for $160M/6, long ago. I'm not so sure, but for argument's sake, let's say we got him to sign for $180M/6 or $220M/8, how would Sox Nation be talking about that extension, right now, assuming he put up the same numbers as he did with the Padres?

.747 OPS (106 OPS+ vs 117 with BOS and 133 from '18-'22)

per 650: .276 17 60

These are Yoshi-like numbers. All the talk of how we messed up the Bogey extension MAY HAVE BEEN premature. (Emphasis on "MAY.")

He had a 117 OPS+ last season. He was just injured this year. Very similar to his 2017 year when he had the season long wrist injury that zapped his power. 6.6 fWAR for 23 and 24 at 30M AAV is breakeven. That's a Nate Eovaldi extension baby!

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Dobbins - Yes

Garcia - Maybe

Castro - No

Monegro - No

Blaze - No

I think some scrub team will take Garcia, so I'd protect  him.

While I like our roster depth, I think, even if we add 3-4 free agents, Jh garcia will still be better than out #39 or 40 on the roster.

I know it sucks bruning 40 man roster slots on guys with no hopes of playing in the bigs, next year, but this guy is too good to risk losing, IMO.

I'd rather trade or cut Wikelman. My guess is Mata, Gasper and Murphy will already be gone by opening day, but I'd also rather have Jh Garcia over Shugart, Horn, Sogard and maybe Penrod & Booser, too. We should have the roster space for Jh Garcia and Dobbins.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He had a 117 OPS+ last season. He was just injured this year. Very similar to his 2017 year when he had the season long wrist injury that zapped his power. 6.6 fWAR for 23 and 24 at 30M AAV is breakeven. That's a Nate Eovaldi extension baby!

117 may have been his career BOS OPS, but as you pointed out on another thread, that includes his first years, as he struggled to adjust at a young age. I do not think those who were most upset at losing Bogey expected a 117 OPS+, year one, and knowing his SS D was not great, to be kind.

His OPS+ since the 2017 year you mentioned:

135, 139, 128, 129 and 131 (2018-2022 w BOS.)

Even if he bounces back to near 117 at age 32 and beyond, I still think that falls short of what the biggest Bogey fans envisioned.

I could easily see him having an OPS+ at or below 117 for the remainder of his time with SD, combined.

 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think some scrub team will take Garcia, so I'd protect  him.

While I like our roster depth, I think, even if we add 3-4 free agents, Jh garcia will still be better than out #39 or 40 on the roster.

I know it sucks bruning 40 man roster slots on guys with no hopes of playing in the bigs, next year, but this guy is too good to risk losing, IMO.

I'd rather trade or cut Wikelman. My guess is Mata, Gasper and Murphy will already be gone by opening day, but I'd also rather have Jh Garcia over Shugart, Horn, Sogard and maybe Penrod & Booser, too. We should have the roster space for Jh Garcia and Dobbins.

Garcia isn't in competition with those pitching slots, just Sogard and Gasper. I think they try putting Wikelman in the pen and maybe trade or DFA him during the year. Murphy still has a lot of value, I wouldn't move on from him unless you know something I don't. 

Ian from SoxProspects believes they will protect Jhostynxon. 

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Garcia isn't in competition with those pitching slots, just Sogard and Gasper. I think they try putting Wikelman in the pen and maybe trade or DFA him during the year. Murphy still has a lot of value, I wouldn't move on from him unless you know something I don't. 

Ian from SoxProspects believes they will protect Jhostynxon. 

I do not think we have a set-in-stone number of pitching slots on the 40.

I also think having guys on the 40 that won't sniff the bigs in 2025, like Wikelman might be as expendable or more than Jh Garica.

Also, I'd take Jh Garcia over Gasper, Sogard and maybe even E Valdez, who we could probably trade for a single A prospect.

[Larry Cook]

15 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Give it to Buehler -- he makes Yankees look stupid

Is walker beuhler worth purposing in free agency 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Is walker beuhler worth purposing in free agency 

I'm not sure player's stock goes up all that much over some post season success.

He does fit the Sox profile for  being a pitcher who has had great success but has missed so much time with injuries.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure player's stock goes up all that much over some post season success.

He does fit the Sox profile for  being a pitcher who has had great success but has missed so much time with injuries.

Pablo Sandoval?