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Posted
29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No one is sure of anything with Henry and the payroll any more. 

I have shifted to a pessimistic outlook, but maybe that's just because I got sick of the optimistic outlook being squashed.

 

As much as it sucks for Sox fans that the Yankees -- and some former Boston heroes -- are back in the World Series, it's great for MLB overall and hardball fans all over the world. 

Seeing half the top 10 stars in the game battling on the big stage is what TV viewers, networks and advertisers want most (imagine the ratings if -- instead of NY-LA -- we had Cleveland vs. Milwaukee?).

And it might not be so bad for Red Sox fans, if a team with high-priced star power wins it all. Maybe that form of get-what-you-pay-for will convince John Henry that he's still a billionaire who can legitimately compete with other rich owners if he changes his mind to go back to the good old days... if he wants.

Posted
1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No one is sure of anything with Henry and the payroll any more. 

I have shifted to a pessimistic outlook, but maybe that's just because I got sick of the optimistic outlook being squashed.

 

I'm not optimistic on spending, at all. I'm just unsure.

I'm optimistic about our young foundation and ML ready, top prospects.

We may or may not need big spending to win, again, but it would likely help. We will almost certainly need some moderate spending to win.

Posted
5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not optimistic on spending, at all. I'm just unsure.

I'm optimistic about our young foundation and ML ready, top prospects.

We may or may not need big spending to win, again, but it would likely help. We will almost certainly need some moderate spending to win.

I’m never optimistic on spending.  Probably why I generally focus on players  who won’t require it…

Posted
51 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

As much as it sucks for Sox fans that the Yankees -- and some former Boston heroes -- are back in the World Series, it's great for MLB overall and hardball fans all over the world. 

Seeing half the top 10 stars in the game battling on the big stage is what TV viewers, networks and advertisers want most (imagine the ratings if -- instead of NY-LA -- we had Cleveland vs. Milwaukee?).

And it might not be so bad for Red Sox fans, if a team with high-priced star power wins it all. Maybe that form of get-what-you-pay-for will convince John Henry that he's still a billionaire who can legitimately compete with other rich owners if he changes his mind to go back to the good old days... if he wants.

Henry knows what spending can do.

 

This WS isn’t the boon to promote spending you think it is.  These two teams have one combined WS title in the past 14 years - and that one in a shortened season - all while spending what? Probably well over $3 billion combined in that timeframe. I don’t see Henry magically changing his mind that his path back to the WS is clear.  Not from this series..

Posted
10 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m never optimistic on spending.  Probably why I generally focus on players  who won’t require it…

We've been suggesting trades and signings based on tight budgets for several years.

The Story and Yoshida signings were kind of surprising, and neither were mega deals.

I'm going on the assumption that we don't spend more than '24 and may cut some. I also think we might spend a little more and get close to the tax line, but I am far from expecting it.

Posted
On 10/1/2024 at 4:59 PM, moonslav59 said:

If TOR lets Vladdy walk, maybe they kick into rebuild mode and look to trade one or two from...

$18.7M x 4 Berrios

$22M x 2 Gausman

$21M x 1 Bassitt

Would you trade Casas and Yoshida for Berrios & Gausman? (I doubt JH agrees.)

I would never in a million years package a distressed asset with a high value asset.  I’d rather get the return for Casas all on his rather than throw someone like Yoshida in the deal

Posted
6 minutes ago, notin said:

Henry knows what spending can do.

 

This WS isn’t the boon to promote spending you think it is.  These two teams have one combined WS title in the past 14 years - and that one in a shortened season - all while spending what? Probably well over $3 billion combined in that timeframe. I don’t see Henry magically changing his mind that his path back to the WS is clear.  Not from this series..

It’s not like only winning a World Series makes money.  So does winning every year, making the playoffs, and having that chance.

Posted
20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I would never in a million years package a distressed asset with a high value asset.  I’d rather get the return for Casas all on his rather than throw someone like Yoshida in the deal

Agreed.  Either keep Yoshida or trade him for someone else’s unwanted contract.  
 

I still think Yoshida plus $13-14 mill for Garver is a realistic deal, although it’s probably only 75% likely to happen.*
 


 

 

 

 

*Probability percentages are not binding or final.
 

 

Posted
24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I would never in a million years package a distressed asset with a high value asset.  I’d rather get the return for Casas all on his rather than throw someone like Yoshida in the deal

I'm looking for a way to get a good pitcher at below market price.

I also think the line-up without Casas could be about as good as with him, but this is no knock on Casas. It is my optimism on Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Meidroth and others that thinks they can come close.

Posted
8 minutes ago, notin said:

Agreed.  Either keep Yoshida or trade him for someone else’s unwanted contract.  
 

I still think Yoshida plus $13-14 mill for Garver is a realistic deal, although it’s probably only 75% likely to happen.*
 


 

 

 

 

*Probability percentages are not binding or final.
 

 

Can't you find someone who is not a DH?

Posted
11 minutes ago, notin said:

Agreed.  Either keep Yoshida or trade him for someone else’s unwanted contract.  
 

I still think Yoshida plus $13-14 mill for Garver is a realistic deal, although it’s probably only 75% likely to happen.*
 


 

 

 

 

*Probability percentages are not binding or final.
 

 

I’d say more like 5% Yoshida could be worse in a few years.  Why get underneath Garvers contract by taking on a longer liability.  

Posted
5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm looking for a way to get a good pitcher at below market price.

I also think the line-up without Casas could be about as good as with him, but this is no knock on Casas. It is my optimism on Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Meidroth and others that thinks they can come close.

You’re not going to, everyone needs pitching, so the market will be high, and adding Yoshida makes the cost higher not below market. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

You’re not going to, everyone needs pitching, so the market will be high, and adding Yoshida makes the cost higher not below market. 

Maybe so, but you said No, not TOR.

TOR is going nowhere and fast. They may look to dump a high-price pitcher to cut salary. They may lose Vladdy and want Casas.

I can understand TOR saying no, but why you?

Posted
32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe so, but you said No, not TOR.

TOR is going nowhere and fast. They may look to dump a high-price pitcher to cut salary. They may lose Vladdy and want Casas.

I can understand TOR saying no, but why you?

Because I don’t think Yoshida is so bad that losing him is going to help you as much as what you give up may potentially hurt you. 
 

Teams aren’t just going to exchange contracts and give us pitching for Yoshida,  he’s a bench bat being paid like a starter.  He’s only getting older, he’s not very movable, and doesn’t really even need to be moved.  Regardless, an overpaid bench bat moves you FURTHER away from pitching not closer to it in a deal, so why even entertain these thoughts.

 

i think there’s a larger probability the Sox sign a high value free agent pitcher than it’s they trade Yoshida this year

Posted
1 hour ago, notin said:

Henry knows what spending can do.

 

This WS isn’t the boon to promote spending you think it is.  These two teams have one combined WS title in the past 14 years - and that one in a shortened season - all while spending what? Probably well over $3 billion combined in that timeframe. I don’t see Henry magically changing his mind that his path back to the WS is clear.  Not from this series..

spending big does not guarantee a WS, but i bet it damn sure improves your chances.

Posted
2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Because I don’t think Yoshida is so bad that losing him is going to help you as much as what you give up may potentially hurt you. 
 

Teams aren’t just going to exchange contracts and give us pitching for Yoshida,  he’s a bench bat being paid like a starter.  He’s only getting older, he’s not very movable, and doesn’t really even need to be moved.  Regardless, an overpaid bench bat moves you FURTHER away from pitching not closer to it in a deal, so why even entertain these thoughts.

 

i think there’s a larger probability the Sox sign a high value free agent pitcher than it’s they trade Yoshida this year

My suggestion was for pitching, and pretty damn good ones. 

I agree that Yoshida will be our DH, this year- maybe a platoon with Ref.

Posted
40 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

there ya' have it.

fvck you John Henry.

If $300M/10 was as high as JH would go, it seems they were pretty far apart. I do not think Betts ever countered with $360M/12, so who knows.

It was stupid to let him go. It seems like $60M + 2 more years is not that much. Yes, this was on JH, and he will forever be to blame.

I do wonder how we would have deconstructed the roster had we kept Betts at that amount, while coming close to the same budgets we saw in 2020 and 2021. He'd have had to have dumped full-Price and probably JD. Maybe they don't extend Sale and or Nate, instead.

I guess we have to take Betts at his word, or do we?

Posted
12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Again, I'm not defending JH or projecting big or even bigger spending, going forward. I have no idea where the budget will go, and projecting budget rankings is even more complex, but I am not understanding why you seem to be so sure JH will never spend big, again.

Because huge spends on free agents is not a sustainable model. add in injuries and the model is completely broken. 
Giolito, Whitlock and story’s injuries were devastating in 2024. 
big free agent spends is yesterday’s model. 
I see us taking the internal pipeline with a few moderate free agent signings as our path to a sustainable model 
 

 

Posted
34 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Because huge spends on free agents is not a sustainable model. add in injuries and the model is completely broken. 
Giolito, Whitlock and story’s injuries were devastating in 2024. 
big free agent spends is yesterday’s model. 
I see us taking the internal pipeline with a few moderate free agent signings as our path to a sustainable model 
 

 

Big FA signings aren't the only way to have a higher budget. 

I also feel like JH wants to avoid ever signing anyone like Price again, although he did just fork over more money for Devers than Price got. I'm still not sure he never will, again.

You make a very good point, but here is the issue and flaw I see in this presented plan scenario: while our rosters in the last few years had enough holes in it to spend on several FAs moderately, rather than spending on 1-2 at much higher prices, I don't see a 26 man roster with 5-6 holes in it. The might not even be 4 holes.

The only thing not totally squeezing the 26 and 40 man roster, right now, is that out most promising ML ready prospects are all not even Rule 5, yet, and they do not need to be added to either roster until opening day or day 2, at the earliest. 

I see 3 major holes, and we don't need to spend like Price on any of them, but we can spend more than Kluber or Richards money. JH did spend $16M x 2 on Jansen, so I could see him allowing Brez to sign Tanner Scott. JH did allow a $38M deal for Gio, the biggest since Nate in 2019, so I do think he may allow Brez to go for someone like Flaherty or Nick Martinez at somewhat high money, but not break the bank levels. The third guy could be another RP'er (LH'd?) or a catcher on a short term deal.  (or both for 4 signings.)

Is this what you mean by "moderate?" If yes, I agree that this could be something JH could go along with. 

Is this a playoff roster?

The 26:

Houck, Nick Martinez, Bello, Crawford, Giolito, Fitts (long man)

Scott, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Chaffin, Guerrero, Criswell

Wong, Grandal

Casas

DHam-Grissom platoon (Campbell added during season)

Story

Devers

Abreu/Duran

Duran/Rafaela

Anthony (added before opening day or after)

Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon

The rest of the 40

Gasper, Romy, E Valdez, Sogard

Priester, Dobbins (R5)

Wink, Weissert, Kelly, Bernardino, I Campbell, Penrod, Fulmer (R5), Booser or Jh garcia (R5)

Gone: Mata, Murphy, Shugart

We can add Campbell, Mayer, Meidroth or Teel, after opening day, perhaps when someone goes on the 60 day IL.

This might be the best we can hope for, and I do not think this puts us over the tax line.

Posted
8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Big FA signings aren't the only way to have a higher budget. 

I also feel like JH wants to avoid ever signing anyone like Price again, although he did just fork over more money for Devers than Price got. I'm still not sure he never will, again.

You make a very good point, but here is the issue and flaw I see in this presented plan scenario: while our rosters in the last few years had enough holes in it to spend on several FAs moderately, rather than spending on 1-2 at much higher prices, I don't see a 26 man roster with 5-6 holes in it. The might not even be 4 holes.

The only thing not totally squeezing the 26 and 40 man roster, right now, is that out most promising ML ready prospects are all not even Rule 5, yet, and they do not need to be added to either roster until opening day or day 2, at the earliest. 

I see 3 major holes, and we don't need to spend like Price on any of them, but we can spend more than Kluber or Richards money. JH did spend $16M x 2 on Jansen, so I could see him allowing Brez to sign Tanner Scott. JH did allow a $38M deal for Gio, the biggest since Nate in 2019, so I do think he may allow Brez to go for someone like Flaherty or Nick Martinez at somewhat high money, but not break the bank levels. The third guy could be another RP'er (LH'd?) or a catcher on a short term deal.  (or both for 4 signings.)

Is this what you mean by "moderate?" If yes, I agree that this could be something JH could go along with. 

Is this a playoff roster?

The 26:

Houck, Nick Martinez, Bello, Crawford, Giolito, Fitts (long man)

Scott, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Chaffin, Guerrero, Criswell

Wong, Grandal

Casas

DHam-Grissom platoon (Campbell added during season)

Story

Devers

Abreu/Duran

Duran/Rafaela

Anthony (added before opening day or after)

Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon

The rest of the 40

Gasper, Romy, E Valdez, Sogard

Priester, Dobbins (R5)

Wink, Weissert, Kelly, Bernardino, I Campbell, Penrod, Fulmer (R5), Booser or Jh garcia (R5)

Gone: Mata, Murphy, Shugart

We can add Campbell, Mayer, Meidroth or Teel, after opening day, perhaps when someone goes on the 60 day IL.

This might be the best we can hope for, and I do not think this puts us over the tax line.

I'm of the opinion we go for speed, defense, balance and contact hitters. Some of those can be prospects. What have we got to lose after the past 5 years. I doubt if we spend big, so would like to conserve what we have for pitching. 

Wong and FA (dont think Teel is ready)

Casas


Campbell/Grissom

Story/Grisssom

Devers(Would trade him but don't see a favorable situation) or DH/Hamilton

Abreu/ Refsnyder

Duran

Anthony (Rafaela to minors to work on hitting. Up early)

And E. Valdez

X Yoshida (doesn't fit the team going  forward-neither speed, defense or balance)

Posted

I don't see us adding any everyday player, except a catcher, most likely on a 1 year deal- perhaps w a 2nd yr option.

I know the kids are "unproven." I know they don't even need to be added to the 40 to stay protected, and the whole years of service equation plays into those choices, but these guys are ML ready, and I think at least one will make the 26 man roster on opening day or day 2. The others may wait until they "gain the extra year."

Even without any added prospects, here are the players vying for the 13 everyday slots:

Wong + _____ (Gasper)

Casas

DHam, Grissom, E Valdez

Story, Romy

Devers (Sogard)

Duran, Refsnyder

Rafaela

Abreu

Yoshida

It's easy to place E Valdez in AAA on opening day, and we have our 13. The weak spots look like ...

C, 1B, 3B defense

Back up catcher and OF, but Ref is serviceable in LF, while Duran can play CF, well.

Romy can be replaced, but some see hope in his skills profile.

A DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B could  be pretty good, but is an area that could be improved and turned into less of a question mark. 2B has been one of the worst positions in all of MLB, almost every year since 2018.

Rafaela's offense is highly questionable.

All of these weak areas can seemingly be solved by prospect infusions.

Teel may not solve the catcher defense problem in 2025, so a temporary outside addition is needed there. 1B and 3B defense could be improved, if we make the ballsy choice of moving Devers to 1B and using Campbell, Mayer or Grissom at 3B.  The defense issue is the most complex of all, because it involves major changes to positions, or replacing plus bats for lesser bats and better D.

The OF depth is instantly solved by adding Anthony, or even Campbell or both.

Romy can be replaced by Campbell or Mayer.

Rafaela's offense can be put on the bench as a 4th OF'er/Defensive OF by starting Anthony in RF (Duran CF and Abreu LF vs RHPs and Duran LF and Rafaela CF vs LHPs) or CF (with Abreu in RF.)

The questionable platoon at 2B, between DHam and Grissom could be replaced by a FT Campbell or Mayer at 2B. BTW, here are the career splits of the suggested 2B platoon: .727 Grissom v LHPs and .695 DHam v RHPs (.729 in '24.) DHam also played very good defense at 2B in '24. Grissom's sample size was small but bad. I do not see us having the worst fWAR at 2B in 2025. It should not even be bottom 10, IMO, no matter which way we go.

I'm really encouraged by the possibilities we have for these 13. We have a lot of depth and flexibility, and I didn't even bring up Meidroth.

It's the pitching that is riddled with some major questions and several minor ones. We do have some decent depth, but as I mentioned before, most can be be better viewed as excellent minor league depth rather than the 10th to 13th best pitchers on the ML roster.

Guys like Fitts, Priester, Criswell and Dobbins would be very nice AAA starters and deep depth for the rotation. (Criswell and Fitts could be long men from the pen, as well, but there may be room for just one to fill that role.)

Our pen has a lot of promise, but there is an issue with having so many mediocre RP'ers with promise or lack of recent success due to injury or whatever. IMO, our current RP'ers should be slotted like this, with 3 significant outside additions:

Closer: __add__

Set-Up1: Hendriks

Set-Up3: __add__

RP4: Whitlock (coudl be excellent as a #4 or end up as our #2)

RP5: Slaten (could be one of MLB's best #5 or move up to #2 or #3.)

LH'd RP6: __add__

RP7: Criswell or Fitts (the other starts in AAA)

RP8: Fulmer

AAA Pen (maybe one of the best in AAA) Guerrero, Penrod, Wink, Weissert, Bernardino, I Campbell, Kelly, Booser/Shugart/Horn/Murphy/Mata (out of options)

Others: Wikelman, Gambrell, I Coffey, Drohan, Mills, Kwiatkowski, Sandlin, Early, Monegro, Mullins, Hoppe, Troye

In short, we need a one-year catcher who is good on D and 3 solid RP'er. I'll settle for 2 really good RP'ers, with one being a lefty, if possible. (I'd like a SP'er, too, but I think Brez & Co. thinks we have the horses, with a returning Gio and Fitts, Criswell and Priester as depth.)

Posted
8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see us adding any everyday player, except a catcher, most likely on a 1 year deal- perhaps w a 2nd yr option.

I know the kids are "unproven." I know they don't even need to be added to the 40 to stay protected, and the whole years of service equation plays into those choices, but these guys are ML ready, and I think at least one will make the 26 man roster on opening day or day 2. The others may wait until they "gain the extra year."

Even without any added prospects, here are the players vying for the 13 everyday slots:

Wong + _____ (Gasper)

Casas

DHam, Grissom, E Valdez

Story, Romy

Devers (Sogard)

Duran, Refsnyder

Rafaela

Abreu

Yoshida

It's easy to place E Valdez in AAA on opening day, and we have our 13. The weak spots look like ...

C, 1B, 3B defense

Back up catcher and OF, but Ref is serviceable in LF, while Duran can play CF, well.

Romy can be replaced, but some see hope in his skills profile.

A DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B could  be pretty good, but is an area that could be improved and turned into less of a question mark. 2B has been one of the worst positions in all of MLB, almost every year since 2018.

Rafaela's offense is highly questionable.

All of these weak areas can seemingly be solved by prospect infusions.

Teel may not solve the catcher defense problem in 2025, so a temporary outside addition is needed there. 1B and 3B defense could be improved, if we make the ballsy choice of moving Devers to 1B and using Campbell, Mayer or Grissom at 3B.  The defense issue is the most complex of all, because it involves major changes to positions, or replacing plus bats for lesser bats and better D.

The OF depth is instantly solved by adding Anthony, or even Campbell or both.

Romy can be replaced by Campbell or Mayer.

Rafaela's offense can be put on the bench as a 4th OF'er/Defensive OF by starting Anthony in RF (Duran CF and Abreu LF vs RHPs and Duran LF and Rafaela CF vs LHPs) or CF (with Abreu in RF.)

The questionable platoon at 2B, between DHam and Grissom could be replaced by a FT Campbell or Mayer at 2B. BTW, here are the career splits of the suggested 2B platoon: .727 Grissom v LHPs and .695 DHam v RHPs (.729 in '24.) DHam also played very good defense at 2B in '24. Grissom's sample size was small but bad. I do not see us having the worst fWAR at 2B in 2025. It should not even be bottom 10, IMO, no matter which way we go.

I'm really encouraged by the possibilities we have for these 13. We have a lot of depth and flexibility, and I didn't even bring up Meidroth.

It's the pitching that is riddled with some major questions and several minor ones. We do have some decent depth, but as I mentioned before, most can be be better viewed as excellent minor league depth rather than the 10th to 13th best pitchers on the ML roster.

Guys like Fitts, Priester, Criswell and Dobbins would be very nice AAA starters and deep depth for the rotation. (Criswell and Fitts could be long men from the pen, as well, but there may be room for just one to fill that role.)

Our pen has a lot of promise, but there is an issue with having so many mediocre RP'ers with promise or lack of recent success due to injury or whatever. IMO, our current RP'ers should be slotted like this, with 3 significant outside additions:

Closer: __add__

Set-Up1: Hendriks

Set-Up3: __add__

RP4: Whitlock (coudl be excellent as a #4 or end up as our #2)

RP5: Slaten (could be one of MLB's best #5 or move up to #2 or #3.)

LH'd RP6: __add__

RP7: Criswell or Fitts (the other starts in AAA)

RP8: Fulmer

AAA Pen (maybe one of the best in AAA) Guerrero, Penrod, Wink, Weissert, Bernardino, I Campbell, Kelly, Booser/Shugart/Horn/Murphy/Mata (out of options)

Others: Wikelman, Gambrell, I Coffey, Drohan, Mills, Kwiatkowski, Sandlin, Early, Monegro, Mullins, Hoppe, Troye

In short, we need a one-year catcher who is good on D and 3 solid RP'er. I'll settle for 2 really good RP'ers, with one being a lefty, if possible. (I'd like a SP'er, too, but I think Brez & Co. thinks we have the horses, with a returning Gio and Fitts, Criswell and Priester as depth.)


is cassas our starting 1st baseman in 2025

Posted
24 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:


is cassas our starting 1st baseman in 2025

Why not?

If he's not traded, he's at 1B. (I guess they could DH him and move Devers to 1B, but that is a longshot.

Community Moderator
Posted
22 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I'm of the opinion we go for speed, defense, balance and contact hitters. Some of those can be prospects. What have we got to lose after the past 5 years. I doubt if we spend big, so would like to conserve what we have for pitching. 

Wong and FA (dont think Teel is ready)

Casas


Campbell/Grissom

Story/Grisssom

Devers(Would trade him but don't see a favorable situation) or DH/Hamilton

Abreu/ Refsnyder

Duran

Anthony (Rafaela to minors to work on hitting. Up early)

And E. Valdez

X Yoshida (doesn't fit the team going  forward-neither speed, defense or balance)

Rafaela's hitting will never get to the level most people will be happy with. People need to lower their expectations. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela's hitting will never get to the level most people will be happy with. People need to lower their expectations. 

Especially students, because Fenway has special discounts for them.

Posted
27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela's hitting will never get to the level most people will be happy with. People need to lower their expectations. 

I'll take it a step further and say he's in big trouble.

Community Moderator
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'll take it a step further and say he's in big trouble.

"He's exactly who we thought he was and we let him off the hook!" 

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