A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd hope for a better defensive "step up," but I think the 28 HR/650 PA power is a big step forward for our RHBs.

Also, Wong has hit LHPs worse than RHPs: .727 to .686, so maybe Jeffers could give us a boost vs LHPs that Wong could not.

I hope the Sox prioritize defense at the catching position, and don’t focus on their opportunity to get a RHH in the lineup.  If they get a catcher that can hit from the right side, he better also be a really good catcher.  
 

And if the new catcher can’t hit, someone has to bat ninth  anyway…

[Bellhorn04]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why does "nutty" have to mean causing financial trouble?

They are spending way more than most teams and have even outdone themselves with the Ohtani and Yamo singings.

It's nutty compared to other teams and even quite extreme for their own history. They used to spend a ton back in the mid 2010's, but they went under $190M in 2018. $187 to $267 is a massive increase. On CT Tax, they were at $205 in 2019 and are now at $352M. You seriously can't understand why anyone could see that as going nutty on spending in a short time? Just from 2023 to 2024 they went from $268>$352- a 31% increase. Who else does that besides the Mets and maybe TEX did that, ever?

Let's not argue semantics. 3 teams vastly increased their spending, and that is just part of the reason we dropped in ranking. Of course, JH's recent cuts is also a major factor.

Last winter Dodger spending:

$700M/10 Ohtani

$325M/12 Yamo

$140M/10 Will Smith

$136M/5 Galsnow (This one alone is more than most teams did w one guy.)

I'd like you to explain why this is not nutty? This blows away any winter any team has ever had, except for maybe that year the Yanks signed something like 5 out of the 11 QO FAs.

No, it's up to you to explain why it is nutty.  Anyone can just recite those numbers.

You totally left out the structure of Ohtani's contract, the fact that he's only paid $2 million a year from 2024-2033.  So the $700 million number is pretty useless on its own.

[Bellhorn04]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

Hey if you’re going to call that nutty, you have to back it up!! :)

That's the point, really.  To average Joe Shmoes like me and you, a ballplayer making $600 million is beyond nutty.  There are no words strong enough.

But we just don't live in that world so we can't really comprehend it.

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

I hope the Sox prioritize defense at the catching position, and don’t focus on their opportunity to get a RHH in the lineup.  If they get a catcher that can hit from the right side, he better also be a really good catcher.  
 

And if the new catcher can’t hit, someone has to bat ninth  anyway…

I'd be fine with this. I value catcher defense almost as much as SS defense.

I do think we could try and fix catcher D, while also adding to our RHB power, but that is secondary to the D.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, it's up to you to explain why it is nutty.  Anyone can just recite those numbers.

You totally left out the structure of Ohtani's contract, the fact that he's only paid $2 million a year from 2024-2033.  So the $700 million number is pretty useless on its own.

I just explained it. Maybe not enough for you, but I think a 31% increase in a budget that was already one of the highest in MLB is extreme. I used "nutty" to denote "extreme."

It was extreme.

Just because they can afford it, does not change the fact that they blew history away with last winter's 4 signings. I call it "nutty." I explained why. Agree to disagree, but why can't you you answer why you disagree?

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's the point, really.  To average Joe Shmoes like me and you, a ballplayer making $600 million is beyond nutty.  There are no words strong enough.

But we just don't live in that world so we can't really comprehend it.

Even those who live in that world think $700M is nutty. I'm not sure why you think I need to explain why it is.

[notin]

38 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's the point, really.  To average Joe Shmoes like me and you, a ballplayer making $600 million is beyond nutty.  There are no words strong enough.

But we just don't live in that world so we can't really comprehend it.

There was some irony with you using the exact same word you called out for moon to justify using….

 

 ;)

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I just explained it. Maybe not enough for you, but I think a 31% increase in a budget that was already one of the highest in MLB is extreme. I used "nutty" to denote "extreme."

It was extreme.

Just because they can afford it, does not change the fact that they blew history away with last winter's 4 signings. I call it "nutty." I explained why. Agree to disagree, but why can't you you answer why you disagree?

Extreme does not necessarily equate to nutty.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Even those who live in that world think $700M is nutty. I'm not sure why you think I need to explain why it is.

It all comes down to how you define nutty, I guess.  

To me nutty means irrational.

If you invest $700 million and it turns into $1 billion, that would be a good thing, wouldn't it?

You seem to be saying Ohtani's contract is irrational no matter what. 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

56 minutes ago, notin said:

There was some irony with you using the exact same word you called out for moon to justify using….

 

 ;)

Yeah but at least I tried to explain it.

[moonslav59]

We all said, "No way would we have paid Bogey what the padres gave him." I call that nutty spending.

I don't want JH spending like that. I would not criticize him for refusing to do something like that.

I find plenty of other examples to criticize him on, but not for things like refusing to offer Ohtani $710M or Yamo $320M.

The Sox have been the highest spending team, at times, and maybe other fans called JH nutty for spending so much on Price, and then adding JD and paying Porcello $22M x 4.

I'm not getting into semantics. I think nutty has many different meanings and connotations. A few teams made some massive jumps in spending within a 2-3 year period. It was not something you see happen. 

I have repeatedly said that is not the only or even the main reason for our spending ranking drop, as the topic moved from just spending to "ranking," after it was pointed out we raised our spending by over 25% in a 2 year period, while many posters were screaming that JH was "being cheap" of "cutting spending." Those Statements were just not true, and pointing that out is not being a JH apologist or defender. I do defend him on other things, like 4 rings, but not letting Betts walk. Not letting countless stars walk without replacing them with anything near similar resemblances. Porcello might have been mediocre, but Martin Perez, Richards and Kluber couldn't carry big Dick's jock. That's on JH.

Again, I'm not changing my term "nutty," because you don't think it fits. It has been extreme spending by 2-3, maybe 4 teams, of late: LAD, NYM, and SDP/TEX for briefer moments. (Maybe PHI, a little bit.) I would not be pissed at JH for not keeping pace with those 4-5 teams + the NYY, but I would for the other 4-6 teams ahead of us.

Thanks for explaining why you disagree. Nutty, to you, means irrational, and those signings made sense to you, because they are a team like LAD who has oodles of cash and revenue streams. I still call it "nutty."

Yes, I do think Ohtani at $700M is extreme and nutty. I think Yamo's deal was, too. Glasnow's was, as well.

The Mets deals were a joke, and they later dumped some.

The Bogey deal was absurd. Is that a better word than "nutty?"

[Duran Is The Man]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We all said, "No way would we have paid Bogey what the padres gave him." I call that nutty spending.

I don't want JH spending like that. I would not criticize him for refusing to do something like that.

I find plenty of other examples to criticize him on, but not for things like refusing to offer Ohtani $710M or Yamo $320M.

The Sox have been the highest spending team, at times, and maybe other fans called JH nutty for spending so much on Price, and then adding JD and paying Porcello $22M x 4.

I'm not getting into semantics. I think nutty has many different meanings and connotations. A few teams made some massive jumps in spending within a 2-3 year period. It was not something you see happen. 

I have repeatedly said that is not the only or even the main reason for our spending ranking drop, as the topic moved from just spending to "ranking," after it was pointed out we raised our spending by over 25% in a 2 year period, while many posters were screaming that JH was "being cheap" of "cutting spending." Those Statements were just not true, and pointing that out is not being a JH apologist or defender. I do defend him on other things, like 4 rings, but not letting Betts walk. Not letting countless stars walk without replacing them with anything near similar resemblances. Porcello might have been mediocre, but Martin Perez, Richards and Kluber couldn't carry big Dick's jock. That's on JH.

Again, I'm not changing my term "nutty," because you don't think it fits. It has been extreme spending by 2-3, maybe 4 teams, of late: LAD, NYM, and SDP/TEX for briefer moments. (Maybe PHI, a little bit.) I would not be pissed at JH for not keeping pace with those 4-5 teams + the NYY, but I would for the other 4-6 teams ahead of us.

Thanks for explaining why you disagree. Nutty, to you, means irrational, and those signings made sense to you, because they are a team like LAD who has oodles of cash and revenue streams. I still call it "nutty."

Yes, I do think Ohtani at $700M is extreme and nutty. I think Yamo's deal was, too. Glasnow's was, as well.

The Mets deals were a joke, and they later dumped some.

The Bogey deal was absurd. Is that a better word than "nutty?"

stupid?

[Bellhorn04]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I do think Ohtani at $700M is extreme and nutty.

Ohtani's AAV is 46.1 million and his 2024 FanGraphs value was 72.6 million.  So they're nicely ahead for 2024 at least.  And that doesn't factor in his impact on their postseason run, marketing etc.

His deal might end up looking nutty, but calling it nutty at this early juncture just because it's an extremely large amount doesn't make much sense to me.

What about Devers's extension?  Ohtani's total AAV is 158% of Devers's.  Are you going with nutty on Devers's extension?  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Ohtani's AAV is 46.1 million and his 2024 FanGraphs value was 72.6 million.  So they're nicely ahead for 2024 at least.  And that doesn't factor in his impact on their postseason run, marketing etc.

His deal might end up looking nutty, but calling it nutty at this early juncture just because it's an extremely large amount doesn't make much sense to me.

What about Devers's extension?  Ohtani's total AAV is 158% of Devers's.  Are you going with nutty on Devers's extension?  

No, but I'm fine with others saying it was a nutty overpay for a DH.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

stupid?

I could have said that word.

[notin]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, it's up to you to explain why it is nutty.  Anyone can just recite those numbers.

You totally left out the structure of Ohtani's contract, the fact that he's only paid $2 million a year from 2024-2033.  So the $700 million number is pretty useless on its own.

It’s nutty because he is reportedly so important to that franchise, yet his take home pay is so little that he’s resorted to betting on baseball just to make ends meet…

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s nutty because he is reportedly so important to that franchise, yet his take home pay is so little that he’s resorted to betting on baseball just to make ends meet…

OK good one. 

That betting thing was so bizarre.  I fully understand anyone thinking the interpreter took the rap for Ohtani. 

The one thing I can't figure out about it - we heard about all the safeguards banks supposedly have in place now, and how large transfers of cash would have caused alerts.  So why didn't the bank catch onto this sooner?  That's  a puzzler to me.   

 

[Bellhorn04]

As for the Bogaerts signing, I've said more than once that it might be the worst contract of all time. The consensus was $200 million tops, and he got 40% more than that.  It would have been interesting to find out which other teams were involved in the bidding.  Boras must have laughed his ass off at the Sox last offer.  They only fell short by $118 million!  The whole thing was just humorous.  I loved Bogaerts when he played for us, but San Diego is going deep underwater on this one.

[Bellhorn04]

The reason I'm defending the Dodgers is that they've been the most successful team in MLB the last 5-10 years, based on regular season records.  I think Andrew Friedman is pretty good, although he's had his share of questionable ones just like all the big spending teams do.  And the ownership is obviously committed hard.  They're paying a lot of tax and invoking other penalties but they're not backing off, and here they are in the Series.  Maybe it's nutty, but if I was a Dodger fan I would love the aggressiveness.   

[Bellhorn04]

The Dodgers haven't missed the playoffs since 2012.  Maybe they have a clue what they're doing.

[Bellhorn04]

And the Dodgers did get off pretty cheap with what we got for Betts, when you look at what the Padres got for Soto.  They got big-time pitching!  We got scraps.  And if the reason we got scaps was the Price inclusion, Bloom should have left that out of the deal. 

Just one blunder after another since Bloom was hired. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK good one. 

That betting thing was so bizarre.  I fully understand anyone thinking the interpreter took the rap for Ohtani. 

The one thing I can't figure out about it - we heard about all the safeguards banks supposedly have in place now, and how large transfers of cash would have caused alerts.  So why didn't the bank catch onto this sooner?  That's  a puzzler to me.   

 

I think you solved your own puzzle.

That whole situation was downright nutty.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Dodgers haven't missed the playoffs since 2012.  Maybe they have a clue what they're doing.

The 2013 Dodgers finished first, but LA fans must have been in uproar ever since because of all the huge albatross contracts the team has been dragging around -- just look at the roster that season:

Kershaw (who has made about $300 million, and earned some of it), Matt Kemp (who they owed over $100 million), Andre Ethier (who they owed $70 million the next half decade), Zach Greinkie ($50M for two more years) -- not to mention the kajillions LA agreed to pay to ex-Red Sox Crawford, Gonzalez, Beckett and Punto.

The poor fans. How have the Dodgers been able to blow so much money, move on from costly mistakes, and keep reinvesting in quality ballplayers and a quality team -- year after year after year?

[notin]

14 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK good one. 

That betting thing was so bizarre.  I fully understand anyone thinking the interpreter took the rap for Ohtani. 

The one thing I can't figure out about it - we heard about all the safeguards banks supposedly have in place now, and how large transfers of cash would have caused alerts.  So why didn't the bank catch onto this sooner?  That's  a puzzler to me.   

 

You’re not really puzzled by it, are you? I think you know exactly what happened there…

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

14 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK good one. 

That betting thing was so bizarre.  I fully understand anyone thinking the interpreter took the rap for Ohtani. 

The one thing I can't figure out about it - we heard about all the safeguards banks supposedly have in place now, and how large transfers of cash would have caused alerts.  So why didn't the bank catch onto this sooner?  That's  a puzzler to me.   

 

Probably because the bets were made on ohtani's behalf.

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

You’re not really puzzled by it, are you? I think you know exactly what happened there…

No, it's a serious question.  Regardless of whether it was Ohtani or the interpreter making the transfers, why didn't the bank flag and investigate them?  

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, it's a serious question.  Regardless of whether it was Ohtani or the interpreter making the transfers, why didn't the bank flag and investigate them?  Do you know the answer? 

Why would they need to be investigated or flagged?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The 2013 Dodgers finished first, but LA fans must have been in uproar ever since because of all the huge albatross contracts the team has been dragging around -- just look at the roster that season:

Kershaw (who has made about $300 million, and earned some of it), Matt Kemp (who they owed over $100 million), Andre Ethier (who they owed $70 million the next half decade), Zach Greinkie ($50M for two more years) -- not to mention the kajillions LA agreed to pay to ex-Red Sox Crawford, Gonzalez, Beckett and Punto.

The poor fans. How have the Dodgers been able to blow so much money, move on from costly mistakes, and keep reinvesting in quality ballplayers and a quality team -- year after year after year?

They did cut 20% of their budget from 2013 to 2018, but unlike the Sox, they kept winning regular seasons.

I think Sox fans would love to see JH go nutty on spending.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Why would they need to be investigated or flagged?

I thought the story was that when transfers of that size are made, the rules are that the bank is obligated to verify that they're legit transactions (money laundering concerns etc.).  These transfers were made to an illegal betting operation.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They did cut 20% of their budget from 2013 to 2018, but unlike the Sox, they kept winning regular seasons.

I think Sox fans would love to see JH go nutty on spending.

The Yankees and Dodgers are kicking our asses these days.

The only thing that is keeping a lot of Sox fans from being miserable about it is the Four Rings and now the Fab Four. 

I get your position too, moon.  I just like stirring up some controversy!