Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Everything, every team, flows from the top of the rotation. 

It doesn't matter if you're trying to advance in the postseason or trying to advance out of last place; it all starts with starters.

That's why it's baffling whenever someone posts -- in any year -- "this isn't the right time to add an ace pitcher" or "we don't want to waste him." 

It's always the right time, and he's never wasted. The only thing wasted is the fans' time watching a group of #3s and #4s all year instead...

That's also why when the Red Sox acquired Schilling to pair with Martinez, who fronted Wakefield, Lowe, and Arroyo, it formed the starting rotation for the best Boston second-place team this century.

Just about every ring and near miss season had a huge influence from the rotation, Most had 1 or 2 of these 3 major factors:

1. An ace,

2. A second ace or solid #2.

3. Most of the original starting 5 had 24+ GS'd.

1946: 35 GS Ferriss 3.25, 35 GS Hughson 2.75, 30 GS Harris 3.64, 24 GS Dobson 3.24 (all 3)

1967: 39 Lonborg 3.16, Stange 24 2.77, 24 Bell 3.16 (1 & 2)

1975: 35 Tiant 4.02, 35 Wise 3.95, 34 Lee 3.95, 20 Cleve 4.43/Moret 16 3.60 (almost 3 of 3) 

1986: 33 Clemens 2.48, 30 Boyd 3.78, 25 Hurst 2.99, 26 Nipper 5.38 16 Seaver/13 Sellers (3/3)

2004: 33 Pedro 3.90, 32 Schill 3.26, 33 Lowe 5.42, 30 Wake 4.87, 29 Arroyo 4.03 (3/3)

2007: 30 Beckett 3.27, 24 Schill 3.87, 32 Dice 4.40, 31 Wake 4.76, 23 Tavarez/11 Letser (3/3)

2013: 33 Letser 3.75, 29 Lackey 3.52, 29 Dempster 4.57, 27 Doub 4.32, 16 Buch 1.74/Peavy (3/3)

2018: 27 Sale 2.11, 30 Price 3.58, 33 Porcelloe 4.28, 23 ERod 3.82, 11 Nate 3.33 (3/3)

I'll throw in 2021: 32 Nate 3.75, 31 ERod 4.74, 30 Piv 4.53, 22 Richards 4.87, 22 Perez 4.74, 13 Houck 3.52, 9 Sale 3.16 (ZERO OF 3, but close to 3/3)

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Giolito's career has been wildly up and down and in total is mediocrity personified.  He has a career ERA of 4.43, FIP of 4.44 and ERA+ of 98.   

it's signings like this and Yoshida that truly make me question the analytic abilities of Henry's FO nerds.

[notin]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Giolito's career has been wildly up and down and in total is mediocrity personified.  He has a career ERA of 4.43, FIP of 4.44 and ERA+ of 98.   

I would not say that.  His first full season in MLB was rough with an ERA over 6.  But that’s hardly unique and he did show progress until he crashed in September.  He then strung together 3 seasons that placed him 7th in MLB in fWAR over that time.  Then he fell apart in 2022 and 2023 and ultimately got TJ.  Maybe his arm is better now?  We will find out.  But if his subpar 2022 and 2023 seasons were related to that, a turnaround is absolutely possible…

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/8/2024 at 9:34 AM, Hitch said:

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Pivetta is going to reject it. Apparently his market is pretty robust. There are even rumours doing the rounds of 3 at $55-60m. Seems madness to me, but durability and strike throwers doesn't come cheap these days, even with that ERA.

 

If Breslow has called it right it opens up Tesocar without getting penalised. 

Hernandez would be nice but it seems he will give the LAD the first crack but nonetheless Sox need to add TOP END SP. Sure hope they are all in on Sasaki.

[Randy Red Sox]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With all the injuries we keep having, it's nice to have five #3-4's, but I totally agree.

We need a #1 or solid #2 to go along with Houck and the five 3-4 types.

Hopefully we are all in on Sasaki who won't cost that much word is the LAD are very interested too. 

[Bellhorn04]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

I would not say that.  His first full season in MLB was rough with an ERA over 6.  But that’s hardly unique and he did show progress until he crashed in September.  He then strung together 3 seasons that placed him 7th in MLB in fWAR over that time.  Then he fell apart in 2022 and 2023 and ultimately got TJ.  Maybe his arm is better now?  We will find out.  But if his subpar 2022 and 2023 seasons were related to that, a turnaround is absolutely possible…

That's all pure speculation.  Nothing wrong with speculation, we all do it.

But the numbers are what they are.  A career ERA+ of 98 at this point is just not impressive, regardless of the underlying factors.

[Larry Cook]

8 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think it matters much if your rotation is all right handed.

The Dodgers just won the title with a postseason pitching staff consisting of 3 right handed starters, and a small army of relievers.

Playoffs and regular season are two different animals 

[moonslav59]

The more I look at Fried, the more I like him.

Since 2020, he is second in ERA-.

11th fWAR & 16th in xFIP-

Get the deal done!

[notin]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Playoffs and regular season are two different animals 

The 1993 Blue Jays went an entire regular season with RHPs starting 150 out of 162 games.  Oh, and they won the World Series that year…

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

The 1993 Blue Jays went an entire regular season with RHPs starting 150 out of 162 games.  Oh, and they won the World Series that year…

I think a healthy mix of RH's and LH's RP'ers is more essential, but even then, as long as your righties can get leties out, even that is not always a factor.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The 1993 Blue Jays went an entire regular season with RHPs starting 150 out of 162 games.  Oh, and they won the World Series that year…

Ya, and 30 years later, any rotation contrast of righties and/or lefties might only affect a couple of at bats per batter per series, since starters are lucky to last five innings. 

Nowadays, it's much more important to have a tough southpaw reliever available late in the game to get lefty hitters out with low-breaking sliders or sweepers. Up and in gas can also do the job, just don't miss down and in...

(this whole post is another plea to sign Tanner Scott, who may have more bidders than Soto and Sasaki).

[Randy Red Sox]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The more I look at Fried, the more I like him.

Since 2020, he is second in ERA-.

11th fWAR & 16th in xFIP-

Get the deal done!

i would rather sign Sasaki.  Much cheaper and younger with likely more upside.  won't cost a pick either.

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ya, and 30 years later, any rotation contrast of righties and/or lefties might only affect a couple of at bats per batter per series, since starters are lucky to last five innings. 

Nowadays, it's much more important to have a tough southpaw reliever available late in the game to get lefty hitters out with low-breaking sliders or sweepers. Up and in gas can also do the job, just don't miss down and in...

(this whole post is another plea to sign Tanner Scott, who may have more bidders than Soto and Sasaki).

Sasaki will be a lot cheaper and until I see Henry open his wallet for top FA'S I won't be holding my breath.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Sasaki will be a lot cheaper and until I see Henry open his wallet for top FA'S I won't be holding my breath.

Sasakis 24 season was a little less stellar than the last.  I still think he’s going to be a stud but he ain’t a sure thing to be an ace. 
 

also. The max the Sox could give him right now is 1.03 million and there’s a ton of teams that have more money to sign him including the dodgers who can offer more than double.  

if he waits a few months he will have every team in baseball bidding on him, and seeing how the bidding can’t get too high it’s going to come down to appeal.  It won’t be about the money as much as it will be about him going to the team he likes best.

Someone like Max Fried, is a proven ace, and seeing how the Sox realistically need two good starters I think he should be priority.  You can with much greater certainty get Fried over Roki if you’re willing to spend the money. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

57 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Sasakis 24 season was a little less stellar than the last.  I still think he’s going to be a stud but he ain’t a sure thing to be an ace. 

if he waits a few months he will have every team in baseball bidding on him, and seeing how the bidding can’t get too high it’s going to come down to appeal.  It won’t be about the money as much as it will be about him going to the team he likes best.

Here's where Tom Warner should step into the negotiations:

Roki's a young guy, Boston's a college town -- what could be more appealing than all those co-eds in attendance at Fenway Park, taking advantage of all those special student discount tickets?!?!

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Here's where Tom Warner should step into the negotiations:

Roki's a young guy, Boston's a college town -- what could be more appealing than all those co-eds in attendance at Fenway Park, taking advantage of all those special student discount tickets?!?!

Yeah Boston has appeal, so do other towns.  Do we really wanna bank on that and lose out while the top end of the FA market signs elsewhere.

 

sox should do both.  Sign an Ace and court Roki

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i would rather sign Sasaki.  Much cheaper and younger with likely more upside.  won't cost a pick either.

Well, he's much more of an unknown and risk.

I think it's time we add someone who is proven and not coming off an injury.

[harmony]

16 hours ago, notin said:

The 1993 Blue Jays went an entire regular season with RHPs starting 150 out of 162 games.  Oh, and they won the World Series that year…

Right-handers started 161 or Seattle's 162 games this year.

Of course the Mariners fell short of the postseason where their vaunted starters could have been formidable.

Or not.

[dgalehouse]

I am pretty sure that the Sox will make some major moves this off season. They know that they can't keep stringing the fans along indefinitely. It's time to step up and start acting like a big time franchise once again. I think even John Henry understands that. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

I am pretty sure that the Sox will make some major moves this off season. They know that they can't keep stringing the fans along indefinitely. It's time to step up and start acting like a big time franchise once again. I think even John Henry understands that. 

I'm assuming you mean "more major" than these off seasons:

2021-2022: Signing Story, Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Diekman, Refsnyder & T Shaw. Extended Whitlock and traded Renfroe for JBJ & DHam. ($160M+ spent)

2022-2023: Signing  Devers (started in 2024) Yoshida, Jansen, Kluber & Martin (around $450M spent)

[mvp 78]

Pass. Crochet hasn't ever had a full season of success and wouldn't commit to pitching in the postseason last year. White Sox are asking for too much. 

I'd stay in contact, but I wouldn't offer anything more than Mayer straight up. 

[Duran Is The Man]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pass. Crochet hasn't ever had a full season of success and wouldn't commit to pitching in the postseason last year. White Sox are asking for too much. 

I'd stay in contact, but I wouldn't offer anything more than Mayer straight up. 

totally agree. IMHO, Crochet is seriously overrated.

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

totally agree. IMHO, Crochet is seriously overrated.

But I would love to see him pitching for us next season instead of criswell 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Pass. Crochet hasn't ever had a full season of success and wouldn't commit to pitching in the postseason last year. White Sox are asking for too much. 

I'd stay in contact, but I wouldn't offer anything more than Mayer straight up. 

WHAAA? Sean McAdam just said Chicago is ok with Abreu as the centerpiece in a Red Sox trade for Crochet (and that Boston would also have to include a prospect, but not necessarily a member of the Beatles).

And yet, the White Sox won't take the MARTIAN AND JUDGE CLONE FROM NY????

[oldtimer]

On 11/10/2024 at 12:38 PM, Randy Red Sox said:

i would rather sign Sasaki.  Much cheaper and younger with likely more upside.  won't cost a pick either.

Every team will try and sign him so the probability of the Sox winning is low but not zero. I can see us getting Fried as a major lefty #1 or #2 even if we are lucky enough to get Sasaki.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

WHAAA? Sean McAdam just said Chicago is ok with Abreu as the centerpiece in a Red Sox trade for Crochet (and that Boston would also have to include a prospect, but not necessarily a member of the Beatles).

And yet, the White Sox won't take the MARTIAN AND JUDGE CLONE FROM NY????

Baseball “journalists.”

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

WHAAA? Sean McAdam just said Chicago is ok with Abreu as the centerpiece in a Red Sox trade for Crochet (and that Boston would also have to include a prospect, but not necessarily a member of the Beatles).

And yet, the White Sox won't take the MARTIAN AND JUDGE CLONE FROM NY????

The Yankees package was not very enticing. They have to add a major league or near major league caliber pitcher or two to their package 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/10/2024 at 4:14 PM, moonslav59 said:

Well, he's much more of an unknown and risk.

I think it's time we add someone who is proven and not coming off an injury.

i don't think he that much of a risk. Fried is much older and with many more miles on his wing and will cost FAR more. Sasaki fits Henry's budget and in our window.

[mvp 78]

Let's go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Let's go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Going all out" is a promising contender for this year's "full throttle".