Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[harmony]

FWIW Baseball Trade Values has upgraded Triston Casas’ surplus trade value from $18.7 million to $28.4 million.

[moonslav59]

I'm all about pitching, but a guy like Soto comes around every 10 generations, if that. I'm not getting my hopes up, but getting him would allow us to trade a top value OF'er or OF prospect (Anthony) for a young and cost-controlled pitcher, so we may not have to spend on a SP'er.

Soto-Devers would rival Papi-Manny.

[Duran Is The Man]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm all about pitching, but a guy like Soto comes around every 10 generations, if that. I'm not getting my hopes up, but getting him would allow us to trade a top value OF'er or OF prospect (Anthony) for a young and cost-controlled pitcher, so we may not have to spend on a SP'er.

Soto-Devers would rival Papi-Manny.

keep Anthony, trade Meyer.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

keep Anthony, trade Meyer.

Yes, I prefer that, too. Anthony would bring back a much better SP'er, IMO.

I'd love this OF:

LF: Soto

CF: Duran

RF: Anthony

4th/Utility: Rafaela

Trade Mayer and Abreu and platoon Ref with Yoshida at DH.

1. Duran CF

2. Devers 3B

3. Casas 1B (maybe Story v LHPs)

4. Soto LF 

5. Anthony RF

6. Story SS

7. Yoshida- Ref platoon DH

8.  Campbell 2B (Grissom-DHam platoon as back-up)

9. Wong + addition C

Bench: C addition, Rafaela, Grissom or DHam

[Tedballgame]

On 11/14/2024 at 12:15 PM, mvp 78 said:

That's a 1.5M  MLB deal for you tracking it at home. 

What a waste of 1.5M!!!!! Another guy with an E.R.A.>6

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

What a waste of 1.5M!!!!! Another guy with an E.R.A.>6

Does seem like a stretch signing. While $1.5M is not much, it is a roster slot that could/should have been filled by a better quality LH'd RP'er.

[Tedballgame]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Does seem like a stretch signing. While $1.5M is not much, it is a roster slot that could/should have been filled by a better quality LH'd RP'er.

I'm sure they think they can fix him but he is washed up and will probably be horrible. And yes, he is taking up a roster spot. 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

keep Anthony, trade Meyer.

You realize that when healthy Mayer is a tremendous bat and decent defender??? Future all star third baseman 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

You realize that when healthy Mayer is a tremendous bat and decent defender??? Future all star third baseman 

I think we all do.

If it's between Mayer and Anthony, I'd trade Mayer. I don't think Teel brings back a top SP'er.

I want to keep Campbell and Anthony the most. It's no slight on Mayer.

We also have middle IF'ers, Story, Campbell, Grissom, DHAM, and later, Arias & Romero with maybe Cespedes at 2B.

Assuming we trade Abreu, and with Rafaela still a question on O: keep Anthony & Campbell.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

You realize that when healthy Mayer is a tremendous bat and decent defender??? Future all star third baseman 

Significant platoon issues and struggles with offspeed pitching. I don't know if we can project him to All Star just yet. Also, if we are moving him to 3b eventually, he can't possibly be a decent defender. 

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Significant platoon issues and struggles with offspeed pitching. I don't know if we can project him to All Star just yet. Also, if we are moving him to 3b eventually, he can't possibly be a decent defender. 

His defense is not bad now.  It at 6’3” tall, he is better at third base once arias gets here! 
his bat is the real deal! Anthony hit .269 at Portland. Mayer hit .307! Granted Mayer is a year older and breaks down more than a 1978 ford pinto! But like the pinto, Mayer can catch fire too. (With the bat) 

[Hugh2]

16 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

You realize that when healthy Mayer is a tremendous bat and decent defender??? Future all star third baseman 

Saying you would trade a guy doesn't mean you don't like them

[Hugh2]

31 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

His defense is not bad now.  It at 6’3” tall, he is better at third base once arias gets here! 
his bat is the real deal! Anthony hit .269 at Portland. Mayer hit .307! Granted Mayer is a year older and breaks down more than a 1978 ford pinto! But like the pinto, Mayer can catch fire too. (With the bat) 

Whos bat is the real deal? Mayer

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Whos bat is the real deal? Mayer

When the Big Three was called up to Worcester, Mayer was the leading hitter in the Eastern League, Teel was second, and Anthony led in extra-base hits. The point is, if these guys have serious holes to be exploited, what hope is there for all the other minor league batters who weren't as good?

In early Portland games I attended, all three guys took humungous swings and misses, but Mayer was the most consistent line drive machine. In later Worcester games I attended, Anthony and Teel both made better contact by going to the opposite field more. 

Campbell, by the time he joined them in the summer, just crushed everything everywhere. The weight shift was exaggerated, but so were the pitches that jumped off his barrel. It will interesting if that success sustains itself at the top level.

 

[Larry Cook]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

When the Big Three was called up to Worcester, Mayer was the leading hitter in the Eastern League, Teel was second, and Anthony led in extra-base hits. The point is, if these guys have serious holes to be exploited, what hope is there for all the other minor league batters who weren't as good?

In early Portland games I attended, all three guys took humungous swings and misses, but Mayer was the most consistent line drive machine. In later Worcester games I attended, Anthony and Teel both made better contact by going to the opposite field more. 

Campbell, by the time he joined them in the summer, just crushed everything everywhere. The weight shift was exaggerated, but so were the pitches that jumped off his barrel. It will interesting if that success sustains itself at the top level.

 

I feel Mayer’s swing will transition the best to the major leagues immediately, but eventually Anthony will have an incredible and more productive career as a hitter. 
The competition for starting second baseman will be fierce next season. I hope Campbell wins it outright. 

[moonslav59]

To me, it's Anthony on top.

Campbell is second.

Mayer is better than Teel, but catchers are so rare, I put them even.

Watch for 1-2 from Montgomery, Arias and Cespedes to make a huge jump, next summer.

Don't count out Romero, the J García bros and Bleis, either. Between these six guys, I'm guessing 4 will impress us greatly.

The pitching is harder to project, but maybe the quantity aspect will create a few keepers.

[Hugh2]

I actually think Teel and Mayer might struggle more out of the gate than the other guys, and they probably stay in AAA until at least mid season. 

I can see Mayer hitting the ground running summer time, but I think he will struggle against LHP out the gate and that might depress his stats for a year or two.  If he ever solves that puzzle I think his ceiling is as large as anyone else. 

Arias is the guy I'm questioning, it sounded like someone called Arias bat the real deal, but I think Larry was talking about Mayer. 

[notin]

38 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I actually think Teel and Mayer might struggle more out of the gate than the other guys, and they probably stay in AAA until at least mid season. 

I can see Mayer hitting the ground running summer time, but I think he will struggle against LHP out the gate and that might depress his stats for a year or two.  If he ever solves that puzzle I think his ceiling is as large as anyone else. 

Arias is the guy I'm questioning, it sounded like someone called Arias bat the real deal, but I think Larry was talking about Mayer. 

Until he gets to AA, I can’t consider Arias anything more than trade bait.  Once upon a time, folks got excited about Miguel Bleis…

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Until he gets to AA, I can’t consider Arias anything more than trade bait.  Once upon a time, folks got excited about Miguel Bleis…

I'm not even sure he's very good trade bait.  Not that I wouldn't trade him in the right deal but his value won't be very high until he's at least in AA. 

More than ever teams are trading for near ready prospects and not far away guys. 

I'm still excited for the 20 year old Miguel Bleis. 

[mvp 78]

17 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

His defense is not bad now.  It at 6’3” tall, he is better at third base once arias gets here! 
his bat is the real deal! Anthony hit .269 at Portland. Mayer hit .307! Granted Mayer is a year older and breaks down more than a 1978 ford pinto! But like the pinto, Mayer can catch fire too. (With the bat) 

Batting average in 2024? Ok!

Mayer: 258 vs LHP in AA

Anthony: 308 vs LHP in AA

[notin]

On 11/17/2024 at 8:32 PM, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I prefer that, too. Anthony would bring back a much better SP'er, IMO.

I'd love this OF:

LF: Soto

CF: Duran

RF: Anthony

4th/Utility: Rafaela

Trade Mayer and Abreu and platoon Ref with Yoshida at DH.

1. Duran CF

2. Devers 3B

3. Casas 1B (maybe Story v LHPs)

4. Soto LF 

5. Anthony RF

6. Story SS

7. Yoshida- Ref platoon DH

8.  Campbell 2B (Grissom-DHam platoon as back-up)

9. Wong + addition C

Bench: C addition, Rafaela, Grissom or DHam

I’m not as convinced Anthony has that much more trade value than Mayer.  They’re similarly ranked (Anthony #2. Mayer #7) on MLB.com.  And their surplus values on BTV (Anthony $65.8mill, Mayer $59.8mill) are also fairly close.  
 

To me, if Anthony is that much superior as a hitter - and I’m not questioning that - then Mayer being a SS gives him significant value over a corner OF…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not even sure he's very good trade bait.  Not that I wouldn't trade him in the right deal but his value won't be very high until he's at least in AA. 

More than ever teams are trading for near ready prospects and not far away guys. 

I'm still excited for the 20 year old Miguel Bleis. 

Closer prospects have always been preferred targets, but ranked A-ball players still have value.  Sometimes it’s their peak value.

Arias might continue down the path towards lofty prospect/MLB player.  But he also might not.  We’ve all seen numerous ranked players simply disappear, because ranking prospects, like any endeavor that involves predicting the future, is rife with errors.  Remember when Garin Cecchini was ranked one spot ahead of Mookie Betts?

Im not saying “trade Arias NOW”, but I am saying if I had to include any of the Sox top Gus, he’d be my first option.  Of course, he might also be the least desirable for those same reasons.

But it only takes one believer!

[Hugh2]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Closer prospects have always been preferred targets, but ranked A-ball players still have value.  Sometimes it’s their peak value.

Arias might continue down the path towards lofty prospect/MLB player.  But he also might not.  We’ve all seen numerous ranked players simply disappear, because ranking prospects, like any endeavor that involves predicting the future, is rife with errors.  Remember when Garin Cecchini was ranked one spot ahead of Mookie Betts?

Im not saying “trade Arias NOW”, but I am saying if I had to include any of the Sox top Gus, he’d be my first option.  Of course, he might also be the least desirable for those same reasons.

But it only takes one believer!

That is and always will be the argument.  I'm comfortable waiting until guys are in the higher minors before trading them. 

Imagine being the guy trading away Mookie Betts for a relief pitcher, or trading away Xander Bogaerts for a pinch runner.  Sure, those guys move, but with less frequency.  I think there's a good chance their value will increase a bit more even if they end up busts.  I wouldn't touch guys like Arias/Bleis right now unless a team was really in love with them.  E.G. CHW wants Arias or Bleis as the second piece (with Abreu) in a Crochett deal. 

[notin]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That is and always will be the argument.  I'm comfortable waiting until guys are in the higher minors before trading them. 

Imagine being the guy trading away Mookie Betts for a relief pitcher, or trading away Xander Bogaerts for a pinch runner.  Sure, those guys move, but with less frequency.  I think there's a good chance their value will increase a bit more even if they end up busts.  I wouldn't touch guys like Arias/Bleis right now unless a team was really in love with them.  E.G. CHW wants Arias or Bleis as the second piece (with Abreu) in a Crochett deal. 

I’d package either with Abreu for Crochet.

 

Sure it would have been terrible to deal Betts for a RP, but what about dealing Moncada and Kopech - both of whom reached MLB - for a starter?  Or throwing in Javier Guerra for a closer?  There are examples to go both ways.  Remember when the Sox pitching future was Rose/Pavano/Suppan?  The best career of those three was the guy that got dealt, and no one (except maybe the then-GM of the Expos) would want to undo that trade…

[Hugh2]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d package either with Abreu for Crochet.

 

Sure it would have been terrible to deal Betts for a RP, but what about dealing Moncada and Kopech - both of whom reached MLB - for a starter?  Or throwing in Javier Guerra for a closer?  There are examples to go both ways.  Remember when the Sox pitching future was Rose/Pavano/Suppan?  The best career of those three was the guy that got dealt, and no one (except maybe the then-GM of the Expos) would want to undo that trade…

Yes, but that just goes to show you that you never know.  People always say "trade away the right prospects who are over rated and keep the good ones" So simplistic from the sidelines.  Like other teams don't have robust scouting departments.  Just because you trade someone away doesn't mean you don't like them.  Guys bust. 

If the Sox traded away all their prospects in the top ten, in ten years from now a few of the moves would look like clear winners and a few might look highly regrettable.

Also, FWIW, Moncada busting is largely influenced by his inability to stay healthy.  That's what killed his career more than anything.  But that's part of the game, staying healthy. 

[mvp 78]

55 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, but that just goes to show you that you never know.  People always say "trade away the right prospects who are over rated and keep the good ones" So simplistic from the sidelines.  Like other teams don't have robust scouting departments.  Just because you trade someone away doesn't mean you don't like them.  Guys bust. 

If the Sox traded away all their prospects in the top ten, in ten years from now a few of the moves would look like clear winners and a few might look highly regrettable.

Also, FWIW, Moncada busting is largely influenced by his inability to stay healthy.  That's what killed his career more than anything.  But that's part of the game, staying healthy. 

Which player has been more likely to stay healthy so far: Mayer or Anthony? 

[Hugh2]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Which player has been more likely to stay healthy so far: Mayer or Anthony? 

 

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Which player has been more likely to stay healthy so far: Mayer or Anthony? 

It’s Anthony.  You know that, I know you know that, you know I know that and you know that I know that you know that.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

 

It’s Anthony.  You know that, I know you know that, you know I know that and you know that I know that you know that.

Maybe I do? Maybe I don't do? 

[mvp 78]

Today is the day...

 

[Hugh2]

54 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe I do? Maybe I don't do? 

I mean tis the season for suspense and making people wait to know.  At least we will know a few things after today.