Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

50/50? no way jose he gets a QO.  I'd be insanely surprised if he gets one.  I'd bet my first born son on that. 

I'd pay O'Neill $21 for two years, not 1.  Refsnyder already was picked up so there's you righty bat.  Anthony mashes Lefty's, and the lineup is gaining Story back and another righty in Campbell next year. 

Yes, I'd still like more proven RHH, but not at the expensive of not buying pitching for a guy who struggles to play even a 100 games. 

He ain't getting QO'd

I’d take that bet, but I need some details on this son first.  If he’s a teenager, I’m out but get what you’re doing.

 

Refsnyder really isn’t the answer to the Sox struggles vs LHP…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

An extension would make more sense than a QO, but I think he's out of here. 

The pro to the QO is he’s in and out in one year.  The con is it eats up a big chunk of a budget.  But anyone arguing it eats up 1/3 of the budget is using straw man logic.  We don’t know what the budget actually is, and even if we did, why are we pretending the Sox can’t make deals to dump other salaries, etc?

 

Here is one thing I can guarantee - the Sox will spend less on pitching than many fans think is necessary, and will NOT dedicate 100% of their spending on pitching…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

The pro to the QO is he’s in and out in one year.  The con is it eats up a big chunk of a budget.  But anyone arguing it eats up 1/3 of the budget is using straw man logic.  We don’t know what the budget actually is, and even if we did, why are we pretending the Sox can’t make deals to dump other salaries, etc?

 

Here is one thing I can guarantee - the Sox will spend less on pitching than many fans think is necessary, and will NOT dedicate 100% of their spending on pitching…

Deals to dump other salaries. What salaries could be dumped? Giolito? Masataka (would have to pay a significant portion especially now considering his offseason injury)? Story? Only other contract above 10M is Devers. 

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

The pro to the QO is he’s in and out in one year.  The con is it eats up a big chunk of a budget.  But anyone arguing it eats up 1/3 of the budget is using straw man logic.  We don’t know what the budget actually is, and even if we did, why are we pretending the Sox can’t make deals to dump other salaries, etc?

 

Here is one thing I can guarantee - the Sox will spend less on pitching than many fans think is necessary, and will NOT dedicate 100% of their spending on pitching…

If the Sox plan on going above the luxury tax my stance on this flips.

I think there’s a good chance he actually does get one AND I don’t think it would be horrible if he accepts.

if he gets one, I will take it as a sign (or perhaps a hope) that they actually plan on making some investment at this offseason.  And not of the structural building kind

[Hugh2]

This is how I view it.

 

sox stay below the LT limit.  5-10% chance TON gets a QO

Sox go above the LT limit 50-60% chance he gets one 

[Hugh2]

I’ve been wrong before.  But whether or not the Sox extend an offer to TON could be a leading indicator of this offseason budget.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Deals to dump other salaries. What salaries could be dumped? Giolito? Masataka (would have to pay a significant portion especially now considering his offseason injury)? Story? Only other contract above 10M is Devers. 

And is none of that possible?  And why are you pretending those are the only players on the Sox who make money?  No mention of Whitlock or Bello?

Is Duran in his first arb year, for example?  Whether or not you support trading Duran, it certainly is a possibility so much so that this very site ran an article about it…

 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

This is how I view it.

 

sox stay below the LT limit.  5-10% chance TON gets a QO

Sox go above the LT limit 50-60% chance he gets one 

I’m sticking with 50/50, which is nice since I can’t be wrong ;)

I believe QOs come out this week.  Nearly the entire baseball journalism industry says TON gets a QO.  Can they ALL be wrong at once?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

And is none of that possible?  And why are you pretending those are the only players on the Sox who make money?  No mention of Whitlock or Bello?

Is Duran in his first arb year, for example?  Whether or not you support trading Duran, it certainly is a possibility so much so that this very site ran an article about it…

 

If they traded Bello AND Whitlock, they'd get 13.8M in CBT relief. That's still 7M less than what they'd have to pay O'Neill.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m sticking with 50/50, which is nice since I can’t be wrong ;)

I believe QOs come out this week.  Nearly the entire baseball journalism industry says TON gets a QO.  Can they ALL be wrong at once?

Yes, baseball journalists tend to be a hivemind of dumb. 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m sticking with 50/50, which is nice since I can’t be wrong ;)

I believe QOs come out this week.  Nearly the entire baseball journalism industry says TON gets a QO.  Can they ALL be wrong at once?

They have time to accept but I THINK they have to be offered today.

O’Neill has to be offered one and the Sox stay under LT for me to be completely wrong, which could be a long wait…..:and everyone will have forgot by then so I’m just screwed if he’s offered one

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m sticking with 50/50, which is nice since I can’t be wrong ;)

I believe QOs come out this week.  Nearly the entire baseball journalism industry says TON gets a QO.  Can they ALL be wrong at once?

And which baseball journalists exactly? All the lists I've found or predictions have O'Neill as "quite the conundrum" and don't make a prediction (mlb.com), say it's a long shot and wouldn't do it (mlbtraderumors.com), or just say no to the QO. Who is saying he's getting a QO? 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

They have time to accept but I THINK they have to be offered today.

O’Neill has to be offered one and the Sox stay under LT for me to be completely wrong, which could be a long wait…..:and everyone will have forgot by then so I’m just screwed if he’s offered one

Players have to decide by November 19th. 

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, baseball journalists tend to be a hivemind of dumb. 

Ok that’s the date thank you, but I think we will know in the next few hours if he’s going to get the offer or not

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok that’s the date thank you, but I think we will know in the next few hours if he’s going to get the offer or not

4pm!

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok that’s the date thank you, but I think we will know in the next few hours if he’s going to get the offer or not

4pm EST

[notin]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they traded Bello AND Whitlock, they'd get 13.8M in CBT relief. That's still 7M less than what they'd have to pay O'Neill.

So he’d be at the same price as last year?

 

To me, it’s a weak plan to fit him in, but I still think the QO for him is in play…

[notin]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And which baseball journalists exactly? All the lists I've found or predictions have O'Neill as "quite the conundrum" and don't make a prediction (mlb.com), say it's a long shot and wouldn't do it (mlbtraderumors.com), or just say no to the QO. Who is saying he's getting a QO? 

Most sites have him on their candidates list, including MLB.com, NESN, Fangraphs and this site.  If MLBTR says definitely not getting one, they’re alone along with you and Hugh

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Most sites have him on their candidates list, including MLB.com, NESN, Fangraphs and this site.  If MLBTR says definitely not getting one, they’re alone along with you and Hugh

This is what Mike Petriello says on MLB.com:

O’Neill is a more interesting conundrum. On merit alone, his first year in Boston was excellent, thanks to 31 homers and a 132 OPS+. But if there’s anything Boston isn’t short on, it’s outfielders, especially if Ceddanne Rafaela plays more center and less shortstop in 2025 – and/or if Masataka Yoshida can’t be traded. On the other hand, entering his age-30 season and coming off a good year, might O’Neill prefer to find a multiyear deal somewhere now rather than risk trying next winter, given that his previous two seasons were injury-plagued and not nearly as productive? It’s probably worth the risk for Boston to think about this strongly.

Predictions: Walker, Torres and Profar receive offers. Walker and Torres reject theirs, and Profar either accepts or signs a multiyear deal to remain with the Padres.

In Petriello's prediction, he doesn't mention O'Neill, just the other candidates. We agree he's a "candidate" for a QO, just that he may not get one. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

O'Neill's 33.6% K-rate is the worst for any Red Sox season home run leader this century. Striking out in more than every 3 at bats is pretty bad. 

For perspective, Devers -- who would've led in homers, as usual, before his power was completely sapped by injury (1st half HRs: 24; 2nd half: 5) -- had a 24.5% K-rate. Other Boston HR kings like Manny and Papi hardly ever even approached whiffing in every 4 ABs.

Aaron Judge is a Fox TV star and big whiffer, and he's never fanned 33.6% of the time as a regular. Not even Schwarber in his 200-K seasons went down swinging at a rate of 30%. 

In 2024 O'Neill had his second-most plate appearances in a season. In his healthiest year in 2021, he had a 31.3% K-rate. 

He's not worth a Qualifying Offer. Spend it on pitching.

 

[notin]

22 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

O'Neill's 33.6% K-rate is the worst for any Red Sox season home run leader this century. Striking out in more than every 3 at bats is pretty bad. 

For perspective, Devers -- who would've led in homers, as usual, before his power was completely sapped by injury (1st half HRs: 24; 2nd half: 5) -- had a 24.5% K-rate. Other Boston HR kings like Manny and Papi hardly ever even approached whiffing in every 4 ABs.

Aaron Judge is a Fox TV star and big whiffer, and he's never fanned 33.6% of the time as a regular. Not even Schwarber in his 200-K seasons went down swinging at a rate of 30%. 

In 2024 O'Neill had his second-most plate appearances in a season. In his healthiest year in 2021, he had a 31.3% K-rate. 

He's not worth a Qualifying Offer. Spend it on pitching.

 

I wouldn’t decline the chance to offer O’Neil a QO based on his elevated K rates .  Nor would I pass due to his declining defense.  
 

Now his .693 OPS vs RHP? Thats more of a cause for alarm…

[moonslav59]

Nick Martinez gets a QO, so a comp pick will be attached to a deal for him. The Athletic suggested he might get $13.3M x 3. $20M/1 seems high.

Severino got a QO, too. Maybe Pivetta will, if this is the trend.

Geeesh!

[notin]

No QO for O’Neill.

 

But yes for Pivetta…

[moonslav59]

Gotta think Pivetta will be back with the Sox. Maybe we try to work out a longer and lower AAV deal with him,

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I wouldn’t decline the chance to offer O’Neil a QO based on his elevated K rates .  Nor would I pass due to his declining defense.  
 

Now his .693 OPS vs RHP? Thats more of a cause for alarm…

Regarding OPS, a guy who strikes out as much as TO has a hard time ever getting O and providing any S. 

And while RBIs may not be a skill, a 33.6% K-rate is too repeatable, and often the impetus of unclutch.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Regarding OPS, a guy who strikes out as much as TO has a hard time ever getting O and providing any S. 

And while RBIs may not be a skill, a 33.6% K-rate is too repeatable, and often the impetus of unclutch.

O'Neill came real close to leading the team in S and 19 points over the team O.

[Larry Cook]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

An extension would make more sense than a QO, but I think he's out of here. 

O’Neil needs to move along. 150 strikeouts and he only drives in runs with taters. 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

O’Neil needs to move along. 150 strikeouts and he only drives in runs with taters. 

If they signed him for 3/36 or something, it would be ok with me. I think he'll test the market though. 

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

O’Neil needs to move along. 150 strikeouts and he only drives in runs with taters. 

Not only that but his defense has seriously declined, which makes him kind of a one-trick pony.

And he seems like a guy who will always have trouble staying on the field.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

O'Neill came real close to leading the team in S and 19 points over the team O.

Shows how overrated the all-or-nothing offense was.