Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I am for trading Abreu but I'd hate to see Duran including in any package.  He was the heart and soul of the team for much of the season and the most exciting player we have seen in a long time.  He went from a bad OF who took poor angles to a good OF through hard work, love this guy. 

i agree. not that i'd want to trade either, but....i'd trade Devers before i'd trade Duran.

[sk7326]

On 9/26/2024 at 11:25 AM, notin said:

Alcantara is owed $37.6 mill over 2 years with a $21mill option for a third.  Miami backloaded his contract and historically has traded players before the more expensive back years.

The 29yo Alcantara didn’t pitch in 2024 while recovering from TJ.  BTV gives him a surplus value of $20.6 mill and accepts offers of Hamilton and Franklin Arias for him.  While I doubt Miami takes that offer, it at least suggests he is attainable for a reasonable deal, meaning no Anthony, Mayer, Teel or Campbell.

Hes an excellent target if healthy.  Miami fans will insist he’s best dealt at the deadline, but ownership might not be so willing to risk it, as, unlike fans, they probably value money over prospects…

With that contract, I'd be willing to buy it blind and bet on the health - if it can get him before the season starts

[moonslav59]

I think Jh Garcia has too much upside to risk losing him to Rule 5. If you look at the projected bottom 5 players on our opening day 40 man roster, I like him more than all of them. Not only is his ceiling higher, his floor might be, too.

I really, really like Abreu. He had a heel of a first year in MLB. It's easy to focus on his platoon status and some rookie fielding blunders, but he was an overall plus defender in a difficult position to play in Fenway and elsewhere. His bats declined a bit in September, but his overall numbers were very nice.

He ended up with a .781 OPS. Projected to 650 PAs: .253  21 80 (about 70 XBHs) Someone, said they heard he was being considered for GG, but I'm not thinking he's at that level, yet. That being said, I like Duran & Anthony better, so trading him makes sense, unless we trade the RHB Rafaela.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/27/2024 at 3:57 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow just all but confirmed he's going to trade a lefty bat, so don't anticipate Rafaela or Campbell being dealt. Ceddanne is signed longterm and his bat is still viewed as a risk, so he's not any bargain for acquiring teams; meanwhile, Kristian Campbell is coming off a season when he was on the fastest track to stardom of any minor leaguer in the world. 

And baseball's #1 prospect, Anthony the Roman Candle, is going nowhere, except in the heart of the Sox' order for the next decade.

Teel also has to be kept, because there's no getting around the fact that Red Sox catchers suck. Both Wong and Jansen are negative dWAR receivers, with these Defensive Runs Saved Above Average for Boston: Wong -20, Jansen -30... 

So, which of the following lefty swingers is a goner: Duran, Casas, Mayer or Abreu? (listed in order of bringing back the best returns; if you're an interested GM, do you prefer the youngest talent or the most durable right now?)

Think Brez can get a better pitcher for Mayer and Abreu than just Duran or Casas? Maybe not... but dealing Casas will mean a major overhaul and be more costly, moving Devers to 1B and signing Bregman, or trading a ton for Vlad Jr.

Then it's settled: the Red Sox' best chip is Jarren Duran.

not a chance in hell the Sox are bucking up for either Vladdy or Bregman

[Old Red]

Baseball ops is priming to do better for the 3rd year in a row, and the payroll is top secret to give the Red Sox a competitive edge. Sounds like full throttle to me. What else can you ask for? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

not a chance in hell the Sox are bucking up for either Vladdy or Bregman

Nope -- at the presser, Brez listed three focus areas (in this order): defense, pitching and line-up balance.

Regarding the latter -- which he noted as "obviously left-handed heavy" -- he never said he was going to spend on acquisitions, just that "we need to figure out how we balance that out" ... particularly to take advantage of the Green Monster in left field.

Trading a few lefty bats for arms costs nothing and opens up opportunities for righty swingers like Grissom and Campbell, if/when they're ready... or The Password Garcia (just named as a starter on MLB's 2024 All-MiLB Prospect Team, along with Campbell and Anthony).

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

not a chance in hell the Sox are bucking up for either Vladdy or Bregman

I hope they don't.

No matter how much the allow Brez to spend, it will have a limit, and anything spent on non-pitchers means less to be spent on pitching.

I get how Bregman would improve 3B and 1B (Devers to 1B) defense, and that would help with run prevention, but an ace would do more, and that is what each of these guys would cost- ace like money.

[moonslav59]

I think we have to put all our eggs in the Campbell & Anthony baskets. Campbell is a RHB and Anthony has decent splits.

Trade Abreu and DHam- both LHBs. I'd try Campbell or Mayer at 3B, move Devers to 1B, Casas to DH and payoff what you need to trade Yoshida somewhere- maybe for a pricey pitcher.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Jh Garcia has too much upside to risk losing him to Rule 5. If you look at the projected bottom 5 players on our opening day 40 man roster, I like him more than all of them. Not only is his ceiling higher, his floor might be, too.

I really, really like Abreu. He had a heel of a first year in MLB. It's easy to focus on his platoon status and some rookie fielding blunders, but he was an overall plus defender in a difficult position to play in Fenway and elsewhere. His bats declined a bit in September, but his overall numbers were very nice.

He ended up with a .781 OPS. Projected to 650 PAs: .253  21 80 (about 70 XBHs) Someone, said they heard he was being considered for GG, but I'm not thinking he's at that level, yet. That being said, I like Duran & Anthony better, so trading him makes sense, unless we trade the RHB Rafaela.

I like Garcia a lot, but he only hit 706 in AA after being called up. There are still questions about his overall hit too as he climbs the ladder. 

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I like Garcia a lot, but he only hit 706 in AA after being called up. There are still questions about his overall hit too as he climbs the ladder. 

I share your concern, but it was only 30 games at AA, and .706 is not all that bad.

To me, it's more about viewing him more highly than my projected 38th to 40th guys on the 40. Now, if we plan to add 4-5 significant players to the 40, this winter, then maybe that aspect flips.

I'd rather trade Wikelman, Mata, Horn or Shugart, or DFA one.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

I see the off season is in full swing at Fenway 🤪

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I share your concern, but it was only 30 games at AA, and .706 is not all that bad.

To me, it's more about viewing him more highly than my projected 38th to 40th guys on the 40. Now, if we plan to add 4-5 significant players to the 40, this winter, then maybe that aspect flips.

I'd rather trade Wikelman, Mata, Horn or Shugart, or DFA one.

Garcia isn't a pitcher. I'm not sure you can compare him to those 40 man guys. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Garcia isn't a pitcher. I'm not sure you can compare him to those 40 man guys. 

I realize the importance of keeping as many promising pitchers on the 40 as possible, but I'm not cutting 5 to keep Jh garcia protected: I'm cutting the worst one of the 5. (I'm assuming Gasper will already be DFA'd or traded by Rule 5 time.)

I think we will trade 2 of these 3 players who are on the 40, but I assume we get a ML'er in return. 2 for 1 trades are difficult in November, but if we pull one off or trade for a non 40 prospect, that could open up a slot for Jh Garcia.

Abreu

E Valdez or DHam

[mvp 78]

Last year, the only players they added were Wikelman and Perales. Ryan Fernandez and Shane Drohan were both taken in the draft. Ryan Fitzgerald was taken in the MiLB portion.

Breslow seems to be aggressive in letting guys run through the Rule 5 process. We also tend to overproject the amount of the players that the Sox protect prior to the draft. Garcia may be one of those guys that gets another year before he's put on the 40 man. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I realize the importance of keeping as many promising pitchers on the 40 as possible, but I'm not cutting 5 to keep Jh garcia protected: I'm cutting the worst one of the 5. (I'm assuming Gasper will already be DFA'd or traded by Rule 5 time.)

I think we will trade 2 of these 3 players who are on the 40, but I assume we get a ML'er in return. 2 for 1 trades are difficult in November, but if we pull one off or trade for a non 40 prospect, that could open up a slot for Jh Garcia.

Abreu

E Valdez or DHam

The Password made the all-minors first team ahead of Mayer and Teel. 

Gotta be a keeper, at least for one more year to let him regress. 

It's not like he's Paxton, bound to break down two years in a row and we're not trading him, but trading for him! (this is why I don't drink English Bitters, cuz I've had my fill...).

 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Last year, the only players they added were Wikelman and Perales. Ryan Fernandez and Shane Drohan were both taken in the draft. Ryan Fitzgerald was taken in the MiLB portion.

Breslow seems to be aggressive in letting guys run through the Rule 5 process. We also tend to overproject the amount of the players that the Sox protect prior to the draft. Garcia may be one of those guys that gets another year before he's put on the 40 man. 

That very well might happen. I do always overproject how many we protect, and sometimes miss one they end up protecting.

In a way, we already "protected" Fitts, Penrod and Guerrero by adding them to the 40 in September.

I think it is a lock we protect or trade Dobbins. Fulmer is Rule 5, too and will be added to the 40. That could be it.

Personally, I like Jh Garcia more than Gambrell, Sikes, Castro, Bastardo, Hickey and Liu. If we keep 3, I'm going with Jh G.

[notin]

So I made some calls to my various contacts around MLB (by which I mean I Googled some stuff on my phone) and found the following players who might be available via trade and should be of interest to Boston.

 

Sandy Alcantara

Jesus Luzardo

Taylor Ward

Yandy Diaz

Luis Robert

Garret Crochet

Ryan Mountcastle

Nick Castellanos

Devin Williams

Kyle Finnegan

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Password made the all-minors first team ahead of Mayer and Teel. 

Gotta be a keeper, at least for one more year to let him regress. 

It's not like he's Paxton, bound to break down two years in a row and we're not trading him, but trading for him! (this is why I don't drink English Bitters, cuz I've had my fill...).

 

As devil's advocate (and original Jhostynxon #1 fan), putting him on the 40 man now looks like this:

Option Year 1:  AA (age 22)

Option Year 2:  AAA (age 23)

Option Year 3: AAA/MLB (age 24) 

2028: MLB, no options remaining (age 25, current age of Wilyer Abreu)

With the scouting questions about his hit tool, it may make sense to just have him go through another year not clogging the 40 man. He's a good, not great prospect. He can play all 3 OF positions and has power (that was bumped up a lot by his home numbers in GRE). Under a different CBO, there is a great chance they protect him IMO.

[moonslav59]

A big part of choosing who to protect is not about liking one guy's chances over another's: it's about thinking who is more likely to be selected by another team.

Did we think nobody would select Drohan or Ryan Fernandez, last winter, or did we just not care enough to protect them over someone else?

In 2022, there was much debate over us not protecting Ward and Song. We also saw Politi getselected.

5 players taken in 2 years is rather high. Was our farm that strong and deep? Did we misjudge who might be selected, or did we know they were likely to be taken and still leave them to be taken?

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I share your concern, but it was only 30 games at AA, and .706 is not all that bad.

To me, it's more about viewing him more highly than my projected 38th to 40th guys on the 40. Now, if we plan to add 4-5 significant players to the 40, this winter, then maybe that aspect flips.

I'd rather trade Wikelman, Mata, Horn or Shugart, or DFA one.

There’s a pretty good chance Horn and Mata both get DFAd.  And I’m on the fence with Shugart…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

So I made some calls to my various contacts around MLB (by which I mean I Googled some stuff on my phone) and found the following players who might be available via trade and should be of interest to Boston.

 

Sandy Alcantara

Jesus Luzardo

Taylor Ward

Yandy Diaz

Luis Robert

Garret Crochet

Ryan Mountcastle

Nick Castellanos

Devin Williams

Kyle Finnegan

The Luis Roberts choice is interesting. He has underperformed his projections, but still has some serious skills. Some sort of trade involving Crochet could be expanded to include Roberts. He bats RH'd, but our OF ids already loaded. I can't see he and Rafaela playing near FT in our 3 man OF with Duran and Anthony. (I'm assuming Abreu is traded and Ref is used at DH, only.)

Maybe Abreu and Rafaela would be part of the package to land Crochet and Roberts- something like Mayer, Abreu, Rafaela, Wink and Dobbins for the two.

The CWS might be the one team that could absorb a 5 for 2 trade of all 40 man roster guys, but more likely we'd give them a non 40 prospect or two. (Maybe Jh Garcia, Sandlin or Meidroth)

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Luis Roberts choice is interesting. He has underperformed his projections, but still has some serious skills. Some sort of trade involving Crochet could be expanded to include Roberts. He bats RH'd, but our OF ids already loaded. I can't see he and Rafaela playing near FT in our 3 man OF with Duran and Anthony. (I'm assuming Abreu is traded and Ref is used at DH, only.)

Maybe Abreu and Rafaela would be part of the package to land Crochet and Roberts- something like Mayer, Abreu, Rafaela, Wink and Dobbins for the two.

The CWS might be the one team that could absorb a 5 for 2 trade of all 40 man roster guys, but more likely we'd give them a non 40 prospect or two. (Maybe Jh Garcia, Sandlin or Meidroth)

I didn’t realize this while adding his name, but Luis Robert had a .568 OPS vs LHP this past year.  If he keeps that up, he’s more problem than solution.  Taylor Ward, on the other hand, had a .879 OPS vs LHP.

I like the idea of sending Abreu to the Marlins for one of their SP.  BTV teams me he’s worth both of them, but I’d take either one (health pending).  Of course, this assumes Abreu fits whatever the Marlins’ plan is…

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

A big part of choosing who to protect is not about liking one guy's chances over another's: it's about thinking who is more likely to be selected by another team.

 

I don't think it's a big part at all. Ward and Drohan were both expected to be taken early on in the Rule 5 process. They clearly valued the open space on the 40 man for offseason moves for middling relievers above having those two on their roster. My guess is that either Ward or Drohan could have been dealt cheaply prior to the Rule 5 protection date if they wanted to. 

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s a pretty good chance Horn and Mata both get DFAd.  And I’m on the fence with Shugart…

How could you say that?! Shugart was the Red Sox MiLB reliever of the year! 

[notin]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

As devil's advocate (and original Jhostynxon #1 fan), putting him on the 40 man now looks like this:

Option Year 1:  AA (age 22)

Option Year 2:  AAA (age 23)

Option Year 3: AAA/MLB (age 24) 

2028: MLB, no options remaining (age 25, current age of Wilyer Abreu)

With the scouting questions about his hit tool, it may make sense to just have him go through another year not clogging the 40 man. He's a good, not great prospect. He can play all 3 OF positions and has power (that was bumped up a lot by his home numbers in GRE). Under a different CBO, there is a great chance they protect him IMO.

It’s not difficult to envision the Sox not protecting Garcia.  But he probably is the third best candidate to protect after Dobbins and Fulmer.   

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How could you say that?! Shugart was the Red Sox MiLB reliever of the year! 

That and $5.75 will get him a triple mocha half cafe espresso at his local Starbucks, assuming he has a valid coupon or uses their app*
 

* At participating Starbucks only

[Dipre]

Kennedy blew enough smoke up everyone's ass yesterday to increase worldwide CO2 emissions by 33%

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s not difficult to envision the Sox not protecting Garcia.  But he probably is the third best candidate to protect after Dobbins and Fulmer.   

Fulmer probably is swapped in for Horn or another pitcher (Mata?). Dobbins seems like a sure lock and potential depth option for '25. 

If they wanted to trade Valdez for a non 40 man guy and add Jhostynxon, it's not the worst idea in the world. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Dipre said:

Kennedy blew enough smoke up everyone's ass yesterday to increase worldwide CO2 emissions by 33%

I think everyone's cheeks were clenched enough to not let anything get in this time. 🛡️

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fulmer probably is swapped in for Horn or another pitcher (Mata?). Dobbins seems like a sure lock and potential depth option for '25. 

If they wanted to trade Valdez for a non 40 man guy and add Jhostynxon, it's not the worst idea in the world. 

Valdez’ .409 OPS in limited action after the All Star break probably didn’t do much to make another team want to add him to their 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft.  He’s much more easily DFAd…