Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

Here is a stab in the dark:

Abreu, DHam & Yoshida ($54M/3) +$3.5M cash x 3 years

for

Erick Fedde ($7.5M/1) and Sonny Gray ($50M/2)

Cash: $43.5M to STL and $57.5M to BOS

STL saves $14M

[Randy Red Sox]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Here is a stab in the dark:

Abreu, DHam & Yoshida ($54M/3) +$3.5M cash x 3 years

for

Erick Fedde ($7.5M/1) and Sonny Gray ($50M/2)

Cash: $43.5M to STL and $57.5M to BOS

STL saves $14M

if the sox are looking at paying 14 million Henry will poo-poo this

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

if the sox are looking at paying 14 million Henry will poo-poo this

$14M for two good pitchers on short term deals?

I know JH is a miser, now, but this is cheaper than Gio.

[moonslav59]

Call Houston...

Casas, Dobbins and Abreu

for 

Hunter Brown (pre arb)

[moonslav59]

Mayer and Yoshida ($54M/2) with $6M paid in 2027

for

Gausman ($46M/2 and $22M AAV) & Bichette ($17.6M/1 but $11.2 AAV)

Total $$$ to Sox:  $64M (AAV $31M year 1 and $20M year 2, year 3 is an $16M savings)

TOR saves $16M overall and gets a SS for 5-6 years. They may be looking to rebuild, or they could use the savings to bring back Guerrero.

[Old Red]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Call Houston...

Casas, Dobbins and Abreu

for 

Hunter Brown (pre arb)

No! Hunter Brown, and who, and how many others?🤮

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Mayer and Yoshida ($54M/2) with $6M paid in 2027

for

Gausman ($46M/2 and $22M AAV) & Bichette ($17.6M/1 but $11.2 AAV)

Total $$$ to Sox:  $64M (AAV $31M year 1 and $20M year 2, year 3 is an $16M savings)

TOR saves $16M overall and gets a SS for 5-6 years. They may be looking to rebuild, or they could use the savings to bring back Guerrero.

Not a chance of a phone call even being made.

[Bellhorn04]

On 10/3/2024 at 12:23 PM, notin said:

When you have a top-heavy bullpen, maybe some better manage of the resources can help.

A prime example is Judge’s game-winning grand slam.  What was the logic there!?  “Ok if this 32yo career minor leaguer fresh out of retirement can just get through the toughest 1-2 punch in the AL, then I can use Martin in the 8th for the 4-5-6 hitters and I’ve saved my best reliever to get the 7-8-9 hitters in the ninth.”

Since 1.00 is an excellent WHIP, it would be more logical to assume the 8th is the 4-5-6-7 hitters and the 9th is the 8-9-1-2 hitters, which is quite different. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Since 1.00 is an excellent WHIP, it would be more logical to assume the 8th is the 4-5-6-7 hitters and the 9th is the 8-9-1-2 hitters, which is quite different. 

Will it change the fact that the game was on the line in the 7th with the bases loaded and Soto and Judge up?  
 

Bear in mind if you’re thinking of answering “yes”, that situation I just described turned out to be exactly when the game was decided…

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Will it change the fact that the game was on the line in the 7th with the bases loaded and Soto and Judge up?  
 

Bear in mind if you’re thinking of answering “yes”, that situation I just described turned out to be exactly when the game was decided…

No, I was only responding to the point about expected hitters in the 8th and 9th. 

I will say this, I think it's very rare to see any manager bring in their best reliever in the 7th inning in a regular season game, and I believe the stats will back that up.  Why they are reluctant to do so is a question that could be discussed at great length.   

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, I was only responding to the point about expected hitters in the 8th and 9th. 

I will say this, I think it's very rare to see any manager bring in their best reliever in the 7th inning in a regular season game, and I believe the stats will back that up.  Why they are reluctant to do so is a question that could be discussed at great length.   

It is rare, but I think managers need to get away from their 1990’s Bullpen Management By Inning ********.

i do disagree with your irrelevant counterpoint about expected hitters.  Just because a pitcher doesn’t have a 1.00 WHIP (which Jansen does, by the way) doesn’t mean they have a 1.33 WHIP.  There is some gray area in between…

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Call Houston...

Casas, Dobbins and Abreu

for 

Hunter Brown (pre arb)

This is why I like BTV.

It shows that this deal is incredibly lopsided in favor of Boston and therefore unlikely to even be considered by Houston…

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

It is rare, but I think managers need to get away from their 1990’s Bullpen Management By Inning ********.

i do disagree with your irrelevant counterpoint about expected hitters.  Just because a pitcher doesn’t have a 1.00 WHIP (which Jansen does, by the way) doesn’t mean they have a 1.33 WHIP.  There is some gray area in between…

Not sure what you're saying.

Generally speaking, a 1.00 WHIP equates to facing an average of 4 hitters per inning.  1 gets on, 3 get out.  That's elite level pitching, giving up only a .250 OBP, lower than Ceddanne Rafaela.

With obvious variables like errors, double plays etc.  

 

[notin]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Here is a stab in the dark:

Abreu, DHam & Yoshida ($54M/3) +$3.5M cash x 3 years

for

Erick Fedde ($7.5M/1) and Sonny Gray ($50M/2)

Cash: $43.5M to STL and $57.5M to BOS

STL saves $14M

I’ve heard some little birds talking about the Cardinals cutting payroll.  If so, Sonny Gray (2 yes $65mill left) is most definitely available, but likely not in any deal involving Yoshida.  
 

A lot of Sox fans do think Bloom is an idiot, and he absolutely has flaws, but he’s not going to ruin the Cardinals for the sake of helping Boston.  His biggest issue was always pulling the trigger on deals for MLB players.  He probably wouldn’t mind a few players he drafted in return for Gray…

[Hugh2]

13 hours ago, Old Red said:

Not a chance of a phone call even being made.

agree, no way Boston should make that trade. 

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not sure what you're saying.

Generally speaking, a 1.00 WHIP equates to facing an average of 4 hitters per inning.  1 gets on, 3 get out.

With obvious variables like errors, double plays etc.  

 

Fine, but it doesn’t change that managers need to recognize when the game truly is on the line, and that it’s not always in the ninth inning…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

This is why I like BTV.

It shows that this deal is incredibly lopsided in favor of Boston and therefore unlikely to even be considered by Houston…

I don't pay for BTV, but I expected it would take a bigger package. Hunter Brown is the REAL DEAL- something one poster does not seem to understand.

How far off was it?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I’ve heard some little birds talking about the Cardinals cutting payroll.  If so, Sonny Gray (2 yes $65mill left) is most definitely available, but likely not in any deal involving Yoshida.  
 

A lot of Sox fans do think Bloom is an idiot, and he absolutely has flaws, but he’s not going to ruin the Cardinals for the sake of helping Boston.  His biggest issue was always pulling the trigger on deals for MLB players.  He probably wouldn’t mind a few players he drafted in return for Gray…

Agreed. Saving only $29M and taking on Yoshida would not be something they'd want. That's a lot of savings, but they would likely want a big 4 prospect. I doubt paying even more off Yoshida's deal gets STL to a yes.

I do think these types of deals are what we should seek, first.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. Saving only $29M and taking on Yoshida would not be something they'd want. That's a lot of savings, but they would likely want a big 4 prospect. I doubt paying even more off Yoshida's deal gets STL to a yes.

I do think these types of deals are what we should seek, first.

They’d save money, but probably less than they’d make with ticket sales by trotting out Yoshida over Gray…

[Old Red]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't pay for BTV, but I expected it would take a bigger package. Hunter Brown is the REAL DEAL- something one poster does not seem to understand.

How far off was it?

Brown is the real deal worth Casas, and Abreu? BTV tell you that? No phone call made by Brez.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I’ve heard some little birds talking about the Cardinals cutting payroll.  If so, Sonny Gray (2 yes $65mill left) is most definitely available, but likely not in any deal involving Yoshida.  
 

A lot of Sox fans do think Bloom is an idiot, and he absolutely has flaws, but he’s not going to ruin the Cardinals for the sake of helping Boston.  His biggest issue was always pulling the trigger on deals for MLB players.  He probably wouldn’t mind a few players he drafted in return for Gray…

Boston is NOT going to sign, or trade for any expensive pitcher IMO. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Boston is NOT going to sign, or trade for any expensive pitcher IMO. 

They signed one last year…

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

They signed one last year…

Under $20M I wouldn’t call expensive, but I’m still shocked the spent what they did even though he was part of the Sale deal IMO using that $10M. If Gio’s back, and they’ll probably stick Whit back in the rotation again too knowing them.

[Randy Red Sox]

15 hours ago, Old Red said:

Not a chance of a phone call even being made.

by who though?

[Randy Red Sox]

All this talk about the offseason is just likely ANOTHER waste of time. I expect the Sox to add a reliever or 2 and some SP DEPTH [ Pivetta ?]  likely on a short term deal. They will probably also add a RH bat to replace O'neill but in the end it will all be underwhelming.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

by who though?

Red Sox. If Houston called it would be a short discussion.

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

by who though?

 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

All this talk about the offseason is just likely ANOTHER waste of time. I expect the Sox to add a reliever or 2 and some SP DEPTH [ Pivetta ?]  likely on a short term deal. They will probably also add a RH bat to replace O'neill but in the end it will all be underwhelming.

The Red Sox brass at the season’s end press conference say a lot that don’t really amounts to much, and then do even less.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

by who though?

Houston would want more than Casas and Abreu.

Hunter Brown is an ace and pre-arb.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

They signed one last year…

The $19M x 2 contract was the largest pitcher contract, since Sale & Nate, both in terms of AAV and total outlay. Of course, it's not like a 4+ year, but it's more than Jansen's $16M x 2, and in terms of SP'er signings. In an overall outlay winter SP'er budget, Gio's contract was not much more than the norm.

Here is what we paid for SP'ers since 2020 (not counting minor league deals or under $1M deals):

$6M in 2020: $6M x 1 Perez

$15M in 2021: $10M x 1 Richards and $5M x 1 Perez

$18M in 2022: $7M x 1 Wacha, $5M x 1 Hill and $6M Paxton (really $10M/2: see '23)

$14M in 2023: $10M Kluber and $4M Paxton

$19M in 2024: $38.5M/2 Giolito

$19M in 2025, assuming Gio's option is accepted, plus whatever we might spend.

From 2021 to 2024, we've spent between $14 and !19M AAV on the rotation. We already have $19M on the books for 2025, so let's see what happens...

 

[notin]

39 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Under $20M I wouldn’t call expensive, but I’m still shocked the spent what they did even though he was part of the Sale deal IMO using that $10M. If Gio’s back, and they’ll probably stick Whit back in the rotation again too knowing them.

You have a higher threshold for expensive than me, and probably most MLB owners, many of whom shed players making $5mill or less as cost-cutting moves…