Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Blown saves aren't always on the closer. The Sox had 31 BS, but only 4 were from Kenley. Martin, Slaten and Weissert also had 4. If we go by BS/G, the leaders were Sims, Campbell and Horn.

Yeah, a lot of our blown saves were a group effort.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Blown saves aren't always on the closer. The Sox had 31 BS, but only 4 were from Kenley. Martin, Slaten and Weissert also had 4. If we go by BS/G, the leaders were Sims, Campbell and Horn.

So the bullpen proved it could blow it around the Horn.

Agree with notin, here -- relief pitchers will be the top free agent targets of our both our CBO and pitching coach, each a decent reliever in his own days...

[Bellhorn04]

A somewhat dispiriting take on the Sox end of season press conference from OTM:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/10/2/24259052/the-red-sox-offseason-is-already-off-to-a-frustrating-start

The key point I guess being Breslow's apparent uneasiness with the question of pursuing a high-priced starter.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A somewhat dispiriting take on the Sox end of season press conference from OTM:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/10/2/24259052/the-red-sox-offseason-is-already-off-to-a-frustrating-start

The key point I guess being Breslow's apparent uneasiness with the question of pursuing a high-priced starter.

Is the uneasiness due to pitchers getting injured now or true budget limitations from ownership? We'll never get a real answer. 

[Bellhorn04]

Sam the Sham doesn't want to talk about payroll numbers because he thinks that would give the team a "competitive disadvantage".

Why do I find that so hard to reconcile with his announcement back in January that he expected the 2024 payroll to be lower than the 2023 payroll - when there were still a pile of unsigned free agents?

That's our Sammy though. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Blown saves aren't always on the closer. The Sox had 31 BS, but only 4 were from Kenley. Martin, Slaten and Weissert also had 4. If we go by BS/G, the leaders were Sims, Campbell and Horn.

Also, blown saves can happen in almost any inning and don’t always result in losses…

[Dipre]

But a significant number of them correlates positively with a poor W-L record.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Is the uneasiness due to pitchers getting injured now or true budget limitations from ownership? We'll never get a real answer. 

I do think it’s disingenuous when there is no differentiation between veteran pitchers acquired via trade and pitchers acquired as minor leaguers.  Trading for Pedro or Sale isn’t the same as trading for Eduardo Rodríguez or Derek Lowe

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Blown saves aren't always on the closer. The Sox had 31 BS, but only 4 were from Kenley. Martin, Slaten and Weissert also had 4. If we go by BS/G, the leaders were Sims, Campbell and Horn.

I agree, but having bad pitchers in situations where a game can be blown is one of our weak areas.

IP

63 Weissert, 57 Kelly, 52 Anderson, 43 Booser, 25 Keller

18 Horn, 14 Joely, 9 Shugart, 15+ by scrubs 

High Leverage PAs Against

79 Bernardino (5th on team) 75 Kelly (7th) 69 Weissert (8th) 60 Wink (11th) 30 Booser, 18 Campbell, 11 Joely & Horn, 8-9 Anderson & Keller, 4 Shugart

Blown Saves/Opportunities

2/2 Bernardino and 1/1 Kelly

4/5 Weissert

4/6 Slaten & Martin

2/3 Booser

1/3 Wink

4/27 jansen (87%)

3/3 Anderson

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A somewhat dispiriting take on the Sox end of season press conference from OTM:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/10/2/24259052/the-red-sox-offseason-is-already-off-to-a-frustrating-start

The key point I guess being Breslow's apparent uneasiness with the question of pursuing a high-priced starter.

And we better believe Assistant VPs in analytics departments all over the map are celebrating the Tigers today -- the team that traded away a viable member of the starting rotation at the deadline, and just eliminated the mighty Astros... with an opener and a bullpen game!

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but having bad pitchers in situations where a game can be blown is one of our weak areas.

IP

63 Weissert, 57 Kelly, 52 Anderson, 43 Booser, 25 Keller

18 Horn, 14 Joely, 9 Shugart, 15+ by scrubs 

High Leverage PAs Against

79 Bernardino (5th on team) 75 Kelly (7th) 69 Weissert (8th) 60 Wink (11th) 30 Booser, 18 Campbell, 11 Joely & Horn, 8-9 Anderson & Keller, 4 Shugart

Blown Saves/Opportunities

2/2 Bernardino and 1/1 Kelly

4/5 Weissert

4/6 Slaten & Martin

2/3 Booser

1/3 Wink

4/27 jansen (87%)

3/3 Anderson

 

Red Sox had a good offense and had lots of leads. They can't pitch their best 4 relief pitchers in every game. At some point, the other relievers are going to have just pitch in the 6th inning with a one run lead. Poof, blow save. That's life. 

[Bellhorn04]

32 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And we better believe Assistant VPs in analytics departments all over the map are celebrating the Tigers today -- the team that traded away a viable member of the starting rotation at the deadline, and just eliminated the mighty Astros... with an opener and a bullpen game!

This is a rather devastating post. 😜

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox had a good offense and had lots of leads. They can't pitch their best 4 relief pitchers in every game. At some point, the other relievers are going to have just pitch in the 6th inning with a one run lead. Poof, blow save. That's life. 

It would have helped, if our 5-8 and even 9-12 RP'ers were better or a lot better. 

Yes, the 1-4 cannot pitch all important innings.

I've said, already, I think our 1-4 look okay for next year. I'd like a bonafide closer, but the 1-4 looks decent. Our 5-8 should be our 8-11. We need to add some better RP'ers to make this happen.

Adding a closer pushed our #1 to #2 and so on. Our 4 becomes our 5. Add a couple solid #5/6 types, and we're there.

We can and should improve on this, and not by giving more IP to our top 4, but by having better 5-8's:

High leverage PAs Against: 63 Weissert, 57 Kelly, 52 Anderson, 43 Booser, 25 Keller, 18 Horn, 14 Joely, 9 Shugart, 15+ by scrubs 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It would have helped, if our 5-8 and even 9-12 RP'ers were better or a lot better. 

Yes, the 1-4 cannot pitch all important innings.

I've said, already, I think our 1-4 look okay for next year. I'd like a bonafide closer, but the 1-4 looks decent. Our 5-8 should be our 8-11. We need to add some better RP'ers to make this happen.

Adding a closer pushed our #1 to #2 and so on. Our 4 becomes our 5. Add a couple solid #5/6 types, and we're there.

We can and should improve on this, and not by giving more IP to our top 4, but by having better 5-8's:

High leverage PAs Against: 63 Weissert, 57 Kelly, 52 Anderson, 43 Booser, 25 Keller, 18 Horn, 14 Joely, 9 Shugart, 15+ by scrubs 

When you have a top-heavy bullpen, maybe some better manage of the resources can help.

A prime example is Judge’s game-winning grand slam.  What was the logic there!?  “Ok if this 32yo career minor leaguer fresh out of retirement can just get through the toughest 1-2 punch in the AL, then I can use Martin in the 8th for the 4-5-6 hitters and I’ve saved my best reliever to get the 7-8-9 hitters in the ninth.”

[notin]

42 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This is a rather devastating post. 😜

If the Mets defeat Milwaukee today they advance with a rotation headed by Sean Manaea.  And only one year after finishing 12 games under .500 with rotation headed by two Hall of Famers…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox had a good offense and had lots of leads. They can't pitch their best 4 relief pitchers in every game. At some point, the other relievers are going to have just pitch in the 6th inning with a one run lead. Poof, blow save. That's life. 

 

5 minutes ago, notin said:

When you have a top-heavy bullpen, maybe some better manage of the resources can help.

A prime example is Judge’s game-winning grand slam.  What was the logic there!?  “Ok if this 32yo career minor leaguer fresh out of retirement can just get through the toughest 1-2 punch in the AL, then I can use Martin in the 8th for the 4-5-6 hitters and I’ve saved my best reliever to get the 7-8-9 hitters in the ninth.”

Agreed. I don't think we were perfect on pen management, but how many times did we ask someone who said Cora blew the pen call, "Who else did we have to being in?" His options were often bad to ugly.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Agreed. I don't think we were perfect on pen management, but how many times did we ask someone who said Cora blew the pen call, "Who else did we have to being in?" His options were often bad to ugly.

All the more reason to stick to the analytics that tell you when the game is on the line as opposed to that 1980’s style of bullpen management that dictates “just use a lefty against a lefty and save that closer for the ninth!”

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Mets defeat Milwaukee today they advance with a rotation headed by Sean Manaea.  And only one year after finishing last with rotation headed by two Hall of Famers…

Funny, how that works out, sometimes.

I still think a team's odds greatly increase with more good SP'ers. Who we think is good in March may not be in October, and vice versa.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

All the more reason to stick to the analytics that tell you when the game is on the line as opposed to that 1980’s style of bullpen management that dictates “just use a lefty against a lefty and save that closer for the ninth!”

I'm not disagreeing, but it does seem like some closers do not do well unless it's the 9th inning, and maybe the metrics would show that, too.

Jansen seemed to do okay, but Kimbrel's OPS Against:

.524 in 9th (2607 PAs)

.663 in 8th (302 PAs)

.746 in 7th (84 PAs)

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not disagreeing, but it does seem like some closers do not do well unless it's the 9th inning, and maybe the metrics would show that, too.

Jansen seemed to do okay, but Kimbrel's OPS Against:

.524 in 9th (2607 PAs)

.663 in 8th (302 PAs)

.746 in 7th (84 PAs)

How much of that is because when he comes in early, it’s to face better hitters?

Kimbrel in the ninth faces whoever is due up.  But in the 8th, he’s almost always (probably always) coming in to face better hitters in a key situation.  I would expect any pitcher facing, say, nothing but 1-4 hitters in a lineup to do worse than if he just faced a random assortment of the 1-9 hitters…

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

How much of that is because when he comes in early, it’s to face better hitters?

Kimbrel in the ninth faces whoever is due up.  But in the 8th, he’s almost always (probably always) coming in to face better hitters in a key situation.  I would expect any pitcher facing, say, nothing but 1-4 hitters in a lineup to do worse than if he just faced a random assortment of the 1-9 hitters…

True. I totally agree with your position about using our best RP'ers when the game is most on the line, which may not be the 9th inning.

I also think greatly improving our 5-8 slot RP'er would make a big difference. It would also push back our current 5-8 to 9-12 or at least 8-11, where I think some could be very helpful.

If all our starters are healthy (yea right!) we could see Criswell or Fitts in the pen, but keeping one in AAA as a SP'er might be the best strategy.

This pen needs an upgrade:

Hendriks - closer

Slaten & Fulmer - set up

Whitlock- set up/multi innings

5. Wink

6. Criswell/Fitts

7. Guerrero

8. Penrod (Kelly/I Campbell/Weissert/Booser/Shugart)

I would not mind seeing Wink as the #8 and the others in AAA trying to win the rights to be the next promoted.

I know there is no way in hell, JH & Brez add 3 quality RP'ers, but adding 2 quality pitchers (SP or RP) would push down who we have now, into better roles. It would make Wink #7 not #5.

It would give us a choice from 5-7 guys for the #8 slot.

 

[harmony]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And we better believe Assistant VPs in analytics departments all over the map are celebrating the Tigers today -- the team that traded away a viable member of the starting rotation at the deadline, and just eliminated the mighty Astros... with an opener and a bullpen game!

Three of the remaining eight teams in the postseason will be from the AL Central.

Who had that forecast?

Certainly not the Minnesota Twins, the consensus preseason favorites who finished fourth in the division.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, harmony said:

Three of the remaining eight teams in the postseason will be from the AL Central.

Who had that forecast?

It's because they had added rest days when playing the CWS.

LOL

[moonslav59]

Could any of these guys be part of a return package for Yoshida, so some or most of the money part is offset?

 

Gausman 22x 3, Bassitt 21 x1, Berrios 18.7 x 4, Luis Castillo 21.6 x 3

Rodon 27 x4, Stroman 18.5 x 2, Pablo Lopez 18.4 x 3, Sonny Gray 25 x 2, Darvish 18 x 4 (37 y/o)

Javier 12.8 x 3, Taillon 17 x 2, Mitch Keller 15.4 x 4, ERod 20 x 3, Freeland 12.9 x 2, R Ray 23 x 2

Mikolis 18.6 x 1, S Matz 11 x 1, T Anderson 13 x 1, Mahle 11 x 1, Nick Martinez 13 x 1

We'd have to still give some cash, in some instances, and or, we'd have to include other pieces or prospects to make it work for the other team, but it would really help our roster construction without Yoshida on the 26 and 40.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Could any of these guys be part of a return package for Yoshida, so some or most of the money part is offset?

 

Gausman 22x 3, Bassitt 21 x1, Berrios 18.7 x 4, Luis Castillo 21.6 x 3

Rodon 27 x4, Stroman 18.5 x 2, Pablo Lopez 18.4 x 3, Sonny Gray 25 x 2, Darvish 18 x 4 (37 y/o)

Javier 12.8 x 3, Taillon 17 x 2, Mitch Keller 15.4 x 4, ERod 20 x 3, Freeland 12.9 x 2, R Ray 23 x 2

Mikolis 18.6 x 1, S Matz 11 x 1, T Anderson 13 x 1, Mahle 11 x 1, Nick Martinez 13 x 1

We'd have to still give some cash, in some instances, and or, we'd have to include other pieces or prospects to make it work for the other team, but it would really help our roster construction without Yoshida on the 26 and 40.

Could they? Yes. Would they? NO to all.

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Three of the remaining eight teams in the postseason will be from the AL Central.

Who had that forecast?

Reinsdorf…

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Blown saves aren't always on the closer. The Sox had 31 BS, but only 4 were from Kenley. Martin, Slaten and Weissert also had 4. If we go by BS/G, the leaders were Sims, Campbell and Horn.

blown saves points to a lack of quality depth in the bullpen. All 26 may not be created equally, but your baseball team is as weak as your weakest player. Hence, no playoffs in three years 

[dgalehouse]

More clarity is needed as to what constitutes a blown save.  Relievers can get a blown save when they are not even in a save situation.  If you had a one run lead in the fifth inning and gave up the tying run, is that actually a blown save ? Is there any such thing as a blown hold ?  Can blown saves happen in any inning ?  I don't think that is the case. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

More clarity is needed as to what constitutes a blown save.  Relievers can get a blown save when they are not even in a save situation.  If you had a one run lead in the fifth inning and gave up the tying run, is that actually a blown save ? Is there any such thing as a blown hold ?  Can blown saves happen in any inning ?  I don't think that is the case. 

A save opportunity occurs every time a relief pitcher either records a save or a blown save. For a save opportunity, a pitcher must be the final pitcher for his team (and not the winning pitcher) and do one of the following:

Enter the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitch at least one inning.
Enter the game with the tying run in the on-deck circle -- or closer to scoring.
Pitch at least three innings.

If you allow the game to become tied after the above, you get a blown save. Inning doesn't matter as long as the pitcher before you is in line for a win (i.e. starter can't leave before end of the 5th).

[notin]

28 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

More clarity is needed as to what constitutes a blown save.  Relievers can get a blown save when they are not even in a save situation.  If you had a one run lead in the fifth inning and gave up the tying run, is that actually a blown save ? Is there any such thing as a blown hold ?  Can blown saves happen in any inning ?  I don't think that is the case. 

There is no such thing as a blown hold.

A hold is credited to any pitcher who pitches in a save situation (lead of 3 runs or less or tying run on deck, and also not in line for a win) who maintains a lead but doesn’t finish the game.  And if he doesn’t maintain the lead, as it was a save situation, he’s credited with a blown save. They can happen in any inning.  A couple years ago, Ryan Brasier (still with Boston) was credited with a blown save in the fifth inning.  It’s rare to see one that early, because more often than not, relievers pitching in the fifth are in line for a win and not a save. (It’s not real common to have a lead in the fifth in a game in which you’re on your third pitcher.) But BS are rather common in the 6th through 8th innings.

The abomination known as the ghost runner has lead to an increase in blown saves after the ninth, mostly when the visiting scores a single run in the top of the inning and a new pitcher enters the bottom.