Chris Sale traded to Braves

[moonslav59]

Steal indeed. That's what the Breslow defenders refuse to acknowledge--that the Braves knew more about Sale than the Sox did--including Breslow, JH, the rest of the front office, and probably even Cora. Sale was also smarter than the Sox because he insisted on at least one more season after this, which the Braves agreed to. The Braves also have an option on a third season in 2026,

 

Meanwhile, Breslow picked up Giolito for $38M for 2 seasons, one of which he's already missed.

 

And people wonder why JH refuses to shell out $150M or more for a really good starter.

 

I do credit Breslow for bringing in Bailey as the pitching coach.

 

Nobody disputes the fact that the trade has been a complete blowout steal for the Braves, so far, with little hope it can ever be completely balanced out by a Grissom revival.

 

The dispute or debate has been about the idea that there was no logic involved in the trade and that somehow we should have trusted in Sale to come through after 5 straight disappointing seasons in a row.

 

I credit Brez for trying to move towards durability, despite it backfiring spectacularly.

I credit Brez for trying to fix the 2B situation that had been a disaster for about 5 years.

I credit Brez for the O'Neill, Slaten, Romy, DSmith and Criswell additions.

I credit Brez for building up our farm and depth with more focus on pitching (Sandlin, Priester, Weissert, Fitts, Judice and more pitchers drafted than recently)

I credit Brez for at least attempting to fix problems within the season (like Dom Smith and the deadline attempts at fixing the pen.)

Yes, I also credit Brez for the Bailey addition.

He also did NOT trade Duran and others.

 

He swung and missed badly on the Sale trade and Gio signing. Nobody thinks otherwise.

[mvp 78]

i wanted Semien. :-(

 

He started off brutal, but has been good ever since. Clear they just signed Xander’s replacement.

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody disputes the fact that the trade has been a complete blowout steal for the Braves, so far, with little hope it can ever be completely balanced out by a Grissom revival.

 

The dispute or debate has been about the idea that there was no logic involved in the trade and that somehow we should have trusted in Sale to come through after 5 straight disappointing seasons in a row.

 

And I dispute that it was about "trusting" or "counting on" him. With a lot of players, especially pitchers now, the reality is you're just hoping for the best.

 

The fact is that Craig rolled the dice when he didn't have to. It was a gamble.

 

I'll always wonder if this was really Craig's idea or if the push for it came from elsewhere, or just from a desperate need to cut payroll somewhere.

 

As for Grissom being an instant answer to our issues at 2B, we're talking about a kid who had a minus WAR in limited action in 2023. Not exactly a sure thing!

Edited August 19, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

And I dispute that it was about "trusting" or "counting on" him. With a lot of players, especially pitchers now, the reality is you're just hoping for the best.

 

The fact is that Craig rolled the dice when he didn't have to. It was a gamble.

 

I'll always wonder if this was really Craig's idea or if the push for it came from elsewhere, or just from a desperate need to cut payroll somewhere.

 

As for Grissom being an instant answer to our issues at 2B, we're talking about a kid who had a minus WAR in limited action in 2023. Not exactly a sure thing!

 

Do you think Rafaela has done well with the Sox shortstop situation?

[moonslav59]

And I dispute that it was about "trusting" or "counting on" him. With a lot of players, especially pitchers now, the reality is you're just hoping for the best.

 

The fact is that Craig rolled the dice when he didn't have to. It was a gamble.

 

I'll always wonder if this was really Craig's idea or if the push for it came from elsewhere, or just from a desperate need to cut payroll somewhere.

 

As for Grissom being an instant answer to our issues at 2B, we're talking about a kid who had a minus WAR in limited action in 2023. Not exactly a sure thing!

 

No, Grissom was no sure bet, but he instantly became the front-runner for the FT job. Also, much of the downside of his WAR was on defense at SS, and the idea was his defense at 2B would be near average, soon and maybe plus, after a short time.

 

We can haggle over the terminology of "counting on" vs "hoping," but the fact was that "hope" had come up short for 5 years in a row, and Brez decided 5 was enough. He guessed wrongly.

 

We had guessed wrongly on several other SP'ers with injury histories, in recent years and been burned on everyone, except maybe Wacha: Richards and Kluber both cost $10M.

 

I think we all agree, the deal turned out badly, but this team was relying on "hope" for far too long. Brez attempted to move towards more durability and missed wildly.

 

Of course, all GMs are judged in hindsight, and Brez failed on this deal. My point is only that it made some sense, at the time. Initially, I was highly skeptical about the move. Over time, I felt like there was some logic to the deal, but I was wrongly assuming we'd spend more on pitching than we did in 2023. We did not:

 

2023:

25.6 Sale

10.0 Kluber

4.0 Paxton

 

2024:

19.3 Gio

17.0 Sale

1.3 Anderson

 

Had we spent more on the rotation and found our 2Bman, we'd still be lamenting losing Sale, but it would not hurt, so much.

 

I like to use the wording "counting on" or "not counting on," because going into 2024, we had very few SP'er we could count on for anything- even a healthy Gio was no sure bet. I get the logic behind keeping all your chances alive, and trading away Sale lessened the pool of possible contributing SP'ers. It was a big risk, but when you look at 5 straight seasons of dashed hopes, it didn't seem like this big of a risk.

[Bellhorn04]

Do you think Rafaela has done well with the Sox shortstop situation?

 

The numbers say no.

[Bellhorn04]

I get the logic behind keeping all your chances alive, and trading away Sale lessened the pool of possible contributing SP'ers.

 

Right. That's my essential point. And if they had made another significant addition besides Giolito I wouldn't be as critical of this. But they didn't. And that's what makes this look so unforgivably stupid in retrospect.

[moonslav59]

Right. That's my essential point. And if they had made another significant addition besides Giolito I wouldn't be as critical of this. But they didn't. And that's what makes this look so unforgivably stupid in retrospect.

 

We all agree, we did too little, and dumping Sale just added to the void in rotation depth.

 

I will say that Houck and Criswell were considered SP depth before the Gio injury, as it looked like Whitlock, Pivetta and Crawford were the choices over Houck.

 

Gio

Bello

Pivetta

Crawford

Whitlock

 

2 deep in depth was woefully inadequate, but it's not like we had nothing. As it turned out, those two depth SP'ers turned into 2 of our best in 2024. Sadly, the rest were let-downs.

[moonslav59]

The numbers say no.

 

I think he helped stabilize the SS position, a little bit, but his defense hurt the team in many games- maybe 2-4 losses, which could very well be what we miss the playoffs by.

 

The position was so bad, after Story went down, that "stabilize" does not mean he did well.

 

The DHam-Romy (Westbrook-Sogard) depth helped, too, but they had defensive short-comings, too.

 

Counting on or "hoping" on Story staying healthy, seems like the new heartbreaker reoccurrence.

[mvp 78]

I think he helped stabilize the SS position, a little bit, but his defense hurt the team in many games- maybe 2-4 losses, which could very well be what we miss the playoffs by.

 

The position was so bad, after Story went down, that "stabilize" does not mean he did well.

 

The DHam-Romy (Westbrook-Sogard) depth helped, too, but they had defensive short-comings, too.

 

Counting on or "hoping" on Story staying healthy, seems like the new heartbreaker reoccurrence.

 

Unfortunately, Mayer isn't the healthiest player either, but he's healthier than his buddy Romero.

[Maxbialystock]

The numbers say no.

 

Rafaela's DWAR at SS is +0.8 in 66 games. Not too shabby.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela's DWAR at SS is +0.8 in 66 games. Not too shabby.

 

Per bref he has 0.8 for the whole year. Where do you see the split between CF and SS?

[mvp 78]

Rafaela

-8 DRS at SS

-10 OAA at SS

 

[Duran Is The Man]

Rafaela

-8 DRS at SS

-10 OAA at SS

 

 

Devers is -7 and -6.

[mvp 78]

Devers is -7 and -6.

 

So worse than the guy most of us want to move to 1b/DH? Yuck!

[Jasonbay44]

Do you think Rafaela has done well with the Sox shortstop situation?

 

I give him credit for switching between two of the toughest positions in the league when the team needed it desperately, but I would say no, he has not been good defensively at SS

[Old Red]

Another good game, and another Sale Day last night as he picked up his league leading 15th win with a 6 IP- 6 H- 6K- 1 ER game.TO BAD the Red Sox didn’t have a pitcher like that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Another good game, and another Sale Day last night as he picked up his league leading 15th win with a 6 IP- 6 H- 6K- 1 ER game.TO BAD the Red Sox didn’t have a pitcher like that.

Best game Sale threw for the Red Sox all season. Boston now three in the loss column behind Minny.

Sox do have Bello and his team-leading 12th win with an 8 IP- 2 H- 9K- 0 ER game.

 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Best game Sale threw for the Red Sox all season. Boston now three in the loss column behind Minny.

Sox do have Bello and his team-leading 12th win with an 8 IP- 2 H- 9K- 0 ER game.

 

FWIW Bello has been great in the second half.  Very encouraging after a rough year and considering he’s about 3 years younger than Houck and Crawford

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

FWIW Bello has been great in the second half.  Very encouraging after a rough year and considering he’s about 3 years younger than Houck and Crawford

BBB has had a pretty good Aug outside of the Arizona game. Should have 5 starts, or 6 starts left down the stretch, so we’ll have to wait, and see if he pitches as good in Sept.

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

FWIW Bello has been great in the second half.  Very encouraging after a rough year and considering he’s about 3 years younger than Houck and Crawford

I would say that he's been very good or closer to what we expected him to be going into this year.

3.42 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 5.9 IP/GS

[moonslav59]

On 8/19/2024 at 7:54 PM, Jasonbay44 said:

 

I give him credit for switching between two of the toughest positions in the league when the team needed it desperately, but I would say no, he has not been good defensively at SS

Agreed, and being better than DHam & Romy is no big wow.

He's such a great CF'er, who could even improve, there, I just don't see why we'd plan on finding time for Rafaela at middle IF.

[Bellhorn04]

It took a while, but the subject matter of this thread has finally been corrupted in true Talksox fashion! 😃

[mvp 78]

On 8/19/2024 at 8:54 PM, Jasonbay44 said:

 

I give him credit for switching between two of the toughest positions in the league when the team needed it desperately, but I would say no, he has not been good defensively at SS

He's had some really good moments because of his great athleticism, but he really should be a CFer. Aside from the brief moments we've seen from Story, we have really mediocre to horrible SS play over the past decade or so. I think that's why we overstate some of the plays that Rafaela has made. He makes some plays that an average SS would make and Red Sox Twitter (and elsewhere) erupts at how amazing it is and anyone who disagrees "doesn't know ball." 

If he stuck at SS, he could be an average to above average SS. However, they tried him out in CF and immediately he showed instincts that led them to believe he could eventually be GG caliber. If he plays a single game at SS in 2025, it's a waste. 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and being better than DHam & Romy is no big wow.

He's such a great CF'er, who could even improve, there, I just don't see why we'd plan on finding time for Rafaela at middle IF.

DHam also deserved an E last night rather than Bello getting a 2nd H. The MIF options have left a lot to be desired. It's the only reason Rafaela looks so good so good so good. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

DHam also deserved an E last night rather than Bello getting a 2nd H. The MIF options have left a lot to be desired. It's the only reason Rafaela looks so good so good so good. 

I agree. Our SS defense has been lacking for a decade. Our 2B D has been awful, too, since maybe Pedey's healthy years.

The offense has been pretty bad, too.

.669 OPS at 2B since 2018.

.813 at SS since 2018, thanks to Bogey, but .690 from 2023-2024.

This is the major reason I hesitate on trading Mayer over Anthony or Teel.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He's had some really good moments because of his great athleticism, but he really should be a CFer. Aside from the brief moments we've seen from Story, we have really mediocre to horrible SS play over the past decade or so. I think that's why we overstate some of the plays that Rafaela has made. He makes some plays that an average SS would make and Red Sox Twitter (and elsewhere) erupts at how amazing it is and anyone who disagrees "doesn't know ball." 

If he stuck at SS, he could be an average to above average SS. However, they tried him out in CF and immediately he showed instincts that led them to believe he could eventually be GG caliber. If he plays a single game at SS in 2025, it's a waste. 

That’s why the Sox need to hold on to Mayer.

[Maxbialystock]

On 8/18/2024 at 1:22 PM, moonslav59 said:

 

Nobody disputes the fact that the trade has been a complete blowout steal for the Braves, so far, with little hope it can ever be completely balanced out by a Grissom revival.

 

The dispute or debate has been about the idea that there was no logic involved in the trade and that somehow we should have trusted in Sale to come through after 5 straight disappointing seasons in a row.

 

I credit Brez for trying to move towards durability, despite it backfiring spectacularly.

I credit Brez for trying to fix the 2B situation that had been a disaster for about 5 years.

I credit Brez for the O'Neill, Slaten, Romy, DSmith and Criswell additions.

I credit Brez for building up our farm and depth with more focus on pitching (Sandlin, Priester, Weissert, Fitts, Judice and more pitchers drafted than recently)

I credit Brez for at least attempting to fix problems within the season (like Dom Smith and the deadline attempts at fixing the pen.)

Yes, I also credit Brez for the Bailey addition.

He also did NOT trade Duran and others.

 

He swung and missed badly on the Sale trade and Gio signing. Nobody thinks otherwise.

 

Well written, able defense of Breslow.  I would add one other item:  it was his first year in a job a whole bunch of other potential CBO's probably turned down because of the uncertainty of where JH wants to take the Sox.  

On the other hand, Breslow also seems to be in the mold of his predecessors in not being able to make big moves on pitchers that work out.  Even DD had to leave because in 2019 because two very pricey starters, Price and Sale, were struggling--and continued to in subsequent seasons while being paid enormous sums of money.  

Bottom line:  Breslow is probably the best available CBO for the Sox.  He's smart, and he knows pitching after having been one for 12 seasons in MLB.  I'm guessing he and Cora are in sync.  

[notin]

On 8/19/2024 at 8:17 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

 

The numbers say no.

I don’t think so, either, but I think he’s simply their best option.

Especially since the Sox blatantly refuse to listen to me and repeatedly passed on Paul DeJong, which you just know was done out of spite.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s why the Sox need to hold on to Mayer.

Why? Who will play SS when he's on the IL?