A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

2012 Sox were the pits: 69-93. The next year the Sox won the WS.

 

They had the bones of a good to great rotation: Lester, Lacket, Beckett, Buchholz

 

They added some good role players in the offseason that took on outsized importance: Napoli, Gomes, Victorino, Drew

 

Don't think Sox can accomplish #1.

[moonslav59]

I don't care if Rafaela is hitting 650. He stays in CF.

 

I agree, but is lower or much lower than .650 have a significant chance of happening?

 

(I'd say yes.)

[mvp 78]

I agree, but is lower or much lower than .650 have a significant chance of happening?

 

(I'd say yes.)

 

What's "significant"?

[moonslav59]

What's "significant"?

 

20-33%?

 

I would not be surprised if some computer put it at 35-40% chance at sub .650.

 

MLB had over 35 batters at .650 or lower with 300+ PAs in 2023. That's over 10%.

[mvp 78]

20-33%?

 

I would not be surprised if some computer put it at 35-40% chance at sub .650.

 

MLB had over 35 batters at .650 or lower with 300+ PAs in 2023. That's over 10%.

 

I'd say less than 10%

[Old Red]

Duran LF

Rafaela CF

Abreu RF

 

Is so much better than what they threw out there this year. Then putting Story at SS? That's fixing a s*** ton of problems already.

Most likely a step down on offense, and very risky to start all 3 of these. Raf Man has to prove he can hit big league pitching first no matter how good he is on D. Still not sold on Duran either, and had come back down to earth before he got hurt.

[notin]

Duran LF

Rafaela CF

Abreu RF

 

Is so much better than what they threw out there this year. Then putting Story at SS? That's fixing a s*** ton of problems already.

 

I’m going with:

 

Duran LF

Rafaela CF

Trout RF

 

.. and doing so with my previously stated caveat..

[moonslav59]

I'd say less than 10%

 

I'd probably agree, but rookie year might be tough.

[Old Red]

I’m going with:

 

Duran LF

Rafaela CF

Trout RF

 

.. and doing so with my previously stated caveat..

 

Yes let’s pay a BROKEN down Trout 7 more years at $35M+.

[moonslav59]

Yes let’s pay a BROKEN down Trout 7 more years at $35M+.

 

I wouldn't take him, if they paid $15M or more per year on what is left.

[oldtimer]

Kennedy saying the Sox will undertake an exhaustive interview process as the selection of the new GM goes forward sounds good from the standpoint of getting the best candidate, but it does also seem worrisome because we will need our GM active very soon as there are many decisions to be made if this team is to improve going forward.

 

1. Who to trade and who are untouchables.

 

2. Who to trade for and what FA's to go after.

 

3. Decisions on the coaching staff

 

4. Decisions on which players to draft.

 

5. What activities to expect from existing (young) players to facilitate development.

 

Too much delay will put our new GM at a disadvantage and that Boston doesn't need.

[moonslav59]

Kennedy saying the Sox will undertake an exhaustive interview process as the selection of the new GM goes forward sounds good from the standpoint of getting the best candidate, but it does also seem worrisome because we will need our GM active very soon as there are many decisions to be made if this team is to improve going forward.

 

1. Who to trade and who are untouchables.

 

2. Who to trade for and what FA's to go after.

 

3. Decisions on the coaching staff

 

4. Decisions on which players to draft.

 

5. What activities to expect from existing (young) players to facilitate development.

 

Too much delay will put our new GM at a disadvantage and that Boston doesn't need.

 

I hope the next GM does not think even one guy is "untouchable." Of course, I expect him to try and hold onto the players he thinks are the best (or will be,) but if the right offer comes up, he needs to pull the trigger.

[notin]

They had the bones of a good to great rotation: Lester, Lacket, Beckett, Buchholz

 

They added some good role players in the offseason that took on outsized importance: Napoli, Gomes, Victorino, Drew

 

Don't think Sox can accomplish #1.

 

They didn’t have Lackey on 2012…

[notin]

Yes let’s pay a BROKEN down Trout 7 more years at $35M+.

 

 

You clearly missed my caveat, which is ok since it’s on another thread (I think)…

[notin]

I don't care if Rafaela is hitting 650. He stays in CF.

 

.650 isn’t much of a floor. Plenty of teams have at least one starter with a .650 OPS.

 

But what if he’s at .530? Like JBJ was his first full season?

[moonslav59]

.650 isn’t much of a floor. Plenty of teams have at least one starter with a .650 OPS.

 

But what if he’s at .530? Like JBJ was his first full season?

 

Or...

 

2022

.578 JBJ (most games in RF)

.629 Kike (most games in CF)

 

2021

Marwin got 271 PAs at .567 before we cut ties.

 

2020

.442 Beni (most games in LF that season)

 

I really like Rafaela (and Abreu,) but he is not a sure bet to hit over .650.

 

[vegasbob]

I hope the next GM does not think even one guy is "untouchable." Of course, I expect him to try and hold onto the players he thinks are the best (or will be,) but if the right offer comes up, he needs to pull the trigger.

 

i think there are some clues within the statements made by Cora and Sam K. that the preference will be for someone already in the Sox organization, or perhaps an Executive Committee to be sure everyone has a voice. If so, then write off the next 2 years.

[moonslav59]

i think there are some clues within the statements made by Cora and Sam K. that the preference will be for someone already in the Sox organization, or perhaps an Executive Committee to be sure everyone has a voice. If so, then write off the next 2 years.

 

Forever the optimist!

[Hugh2]

i think there are some clues within the statements made by Cora and Sam K. that the preference will be for someone already in the Sox organization, or perhaps an Executive Committee to be sure everyone has a voice. If so, then write off the next 2 years.

 

Why? do any of us really know how a guy like "Eddie Romero" for example would run a team? he's probably been one of the most valuable assets to this organization the last couple of decades and may be single-handedly more responsible for the amateur talent here more than any GM/CBO we've ever had.

 

There are people that are within this organization, that didn't come and go with DD and Bloom but were here for Bogaerts, Betts, Devers, and countless others. Just because the MLB team failed, doesn't mean there aren't real gems within the org. Someone like Romero might very well fit that bill.

 

Also, I don't think a GM from outside changes that. They will bring someone in who can implement their vision, whoever comes in will have some sort of mandate or frame under which they can operate.

[Hugh2]

.650 isn’t much of a floor. Plenty of teams have at least one starter with a .650 OPS.

 

But what if he’s at .530? Like JBJ was his first full season?

 

add Abreu and perhaps pumpkin again Duran to that mix and the outfield could look really really bad next year. Or not.

[mvp 78]

They didn’t have Lackey on 2012…

 

He didn't pitch that year, but he was under team control.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

i think there are some clues within the statements made by Cora and Sam K. that the preference will be for someone already in the Sox organization, or perhaps an Executive Committee to be sure everyone has a voice. If so, then write off the next 2 years.

 

It doesn't make sense that Cora told Bloom which dumpsters to dive in -- and then when the team sucked, blatantly stated, "The roster is the roster."

 

Bloom infamously said the Sox were "underdogs" to justify not acquiring their requested reinforcements. But he made them underdogs -- he was in charge of assembling the roster, not the manager stuck with starting openers every other day...

 

I welcome Cora having more input on front office decisions, especially regarding which players he'd like to keep, which ones he'd move, and ultimately, which free agents or guys on other teams he'd specifically target that can improve the Red Sox.

 

No matter what you think about Cora, he knows a lot more about baseball than Chaim Bloom.

[moonslav59]

Right on, GG and Hugh!

[Bellhorn04]

He didn't pitch that year, but he was under team control.

 

Yeah, notin was just kind of adding to his post count with that one...

[moonslav59]

Yeah, notin was just kind of adding to his post count with that one...

 

Like this one to your count...

 

[notin]

It doesn't make sense that Cora told Bloom which dumpsters to dive in -- and then when the team sucked, blatantly stated, "The roster is the roster."

 

Bloom infamously said the Sox were "underdogs" to justify not acquiring their requested reinforcements. But he made them underdogs -- he was in charge of assembling the roster, not the manager stuck with starting openers every other day...

 

I welcome Cora having more input on front office decisions, especially regarding which players he'd like to keep, which ones he'd move, and ultimately, which free agents or guys on other teams he'd specifically target that can improve the Red Sox.

 

No matter what you think about Cora, he knows a lot more about baseball than Chaim Bloom.

 

I’m sure Cora had input. I’m sure every manger has some input. But that didn’t make them ultimately responsible. “Input” doesn’t mean making the final call.

 

The notion that Cora is begging for a better pitcher and Bloom is telling him “No!! You will work with what I give you!” Is pure fantasy. Bloom was aware which one of the two would be fired by ownership first in that case…

[notin]

He didn't pitch that year, but he was under team control.

 

Point being the post-surgery Lackey was like getting a new pitcher. 2011 and 2012 Lackey was more problem than solution…

[notin]

Or...

 

2022

.578 JBJ (most games in RF)

.629 Kike (most games in CF)

 

2021

Marwin got 271 PAs at .567 before we cut ties.

 

2020

.442 Beni (most games in LF that season)

 

I really like Rafaela (and Abreu,) but he is not a sure bet to hit over .650.

 

 

He isn’t.

 

It’s easy to say “I’m fine with him hitting.650 and playing great defense.” We all are. But there is a threshold where the defense simply doesn’t justify the lack of offense to many fans, even for a number nine hitter. We’ve seen this with Bradley. At both ends of his career…

[Bellhorn04]

He isn’t.

 

It’s easy to say “I’m fine with him hitting.650 and playing great defense.” We all are. But there is a threshold where the defense simply doesn’t justify the lack of offense to many fans, even for a number nine hitter. We’ve seen this with Bradley. At both ends of his career…

 

Fans, huh? You think a negative WAR should just be ignored?

[moonslav59]

He isn’t.

 

It’s easy to say “I’m fine with him hitting.650 and playing great defense.” We all are. But there is a threshold where the defense simply doesn’t justify the lack of offense to many fans, even for a number nine hitter. We’ve seen this with Bradley. At both ends of his career…

 

Indeed. I do think MVPs .650 floor is about the lowest acceptable number, and even then, not for a long time.

 

You’d have to be damn good on D to have a long career in CF at .675.