A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Fans, huh? You think a negative WAR should just be ignored?

 

In 2014, Bradley posted a .531 OPS and 0.2 fWAR. I bet he wasn’t wildly popular. And his offensive output might have helped fuel the team’s interest in Rusney Castillo.

 

I don’t recall anyone defending his contributions based on his positive fWAR…

[moonslav59]

In 2014, Bradley posted a .531 OPS and 0.2 fWAR. I bet he wasn’t wildly popular. And his offensive output might have helped fuel the team’s interest in Rusney Castillo.

 

I don’t recall anyone defending his contributions based on his positive fWAR…

 

I know I had not given up on him, at that time, but I do recall many were wanting a change in CF.

[Bellhorn04]

In 2014, Bradley posted a .531 OPS and 0.2 fWAR. I bet he wasn’t wildly popular. And his offensive output might have helped fuel the team’s interest in Rusney Castillo.

 

I don’t recall anyone defending his contributions based on his positive fWAR…

 

His negative fWARs for 2021, 2022 and 2023, and the fact he's probably done as an MLB player, might be even more pertinent.

 

To me this is the one of the things that WAR really tells us. Can a guy with a great glove and a terrible bat be a positive contributor? Generally speaking, no. The only value would be as a late inning defensive replacement.

[notin]

His negative fWARs for 2021, 2022 and 2023, and the fact he's probably done as an MLB player, might be even more pertinent.

 

To me this is the one of the things that WAR really tells us. Can a guy with a great glove and a terrible bat be a positive contributor? Generally speaking, no. The only value would be as a late inning defensive replacement.

 

 

Actually those years were not pertinent at all to my question about 2014.

 

The bottom line is that year Bradley was a clear offensive liability yet didn’t have a negative fWAR. That’s also a possibility with Rafaela next year. If Rafaela has a .530 OPS and a positive fWAR in the 0.1 to 0.5 range, what will be your thoughts of him as a starter?

[moonslav59]

His negative fWARs for 2021, 2022 and 2023, and the fact he's probably done as an MLB player, might be even more pertinent.

 

To me this is the one of the things that WAR really tells us. Can a guy with a great glove and a terrible bat be a positive contributor? Generally speaking, no. The only value would be as a late inning defensive replacement.

 

The SS position offers the best case scenario for a great defender to be a big enough overall plus, despite sucking at the plate.

[Maxbialystock]

He didn't pitch that year, but he was under team control.

 

Of course he didn't. That's the point. This season mirrors 2012 in that the rotation was a shambled. Bello is the only starter who didn't go on the IL (nor was relegated to the bullpen--Pivetta).

 

When 2013 rolled around, however, the Sox didn't just have Lackey. They also had Lester and--surprise, surprise--Clay Buchholz, who went completely ape in the first three months with 13 quality starts in 16 total starts. That year Lester had 20 quality starts and Lackey 19. Plus Koji Uehara in the bullpen. The pitching was transformed--and that carried over into the postseason.

 

I don't see that happening in 2024, but agree with the consensus that job one is to fix the rotation.

 

Bello with 15 quality starts in his rookie season is a good start.

 

I think the Sale comeback this year, despite missing over 2 months, was promising. He was fantastic in May (4 starts, 26.2 innings, 3 quality starts, ERA 2.42) and almost decent in September (5 starts, 25 innings, ERA 2.88) when he ratcheted down his fastball to the low 90's. He turns 35 in March, but he basically rested 3 seasons, 2020-22. I think he could go 150 innings next year and just maybe 15 quality starts.

 

So theoretically the new Sox management only needs to get one quality starter for next year. Two would be better, but the Sox also need to make other fixes. My biggest concern is with righty bats. Story needs to come around, but they also need at least one more .800 OPS righty bat.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Ozzie Smith had an .589 OPS in 1980 and a 5.1 bWAR.

[moonslav59]

Of course he didn't. That's the point. This season mirrors 2012 in that the rotation was a shambled. Bello is the only starter who didn't go on the IL (nor was relegated to the bullpen--Pivetta).

 

When 2013 rolled around, however, the Sox didn't just have Lackey. They also had Lester and--surprise, surprise--Clay Buchholz, who went completely ape in the first three months with 13 quality starts in 16 total starts. That year Lester had 20 quality starts and Lackey 19. Plus Koji Uehara in the bullpen. The pitching was transformed--and that carried over into the postseason.

 

I don't see that happening in 2024, but agree with the consensus that job one is to fix the rotation.

 

Bello with 15 quality starts in his rookie season is a good start.

 

I think the Sale comeback this year, despite missing over 2 months, was promising. He was fantastic in May (4 starts, 26.2 innings, 3 quality starts, ERA 2.42) and almost decent in September (5 starts, 25 innings, ERA 2.88) when he ratcheted down his fastball to the low 90's. He turns 35 in March, but he basically rested 3 seasons, 2020-22. I think he could go 150 innings next year and just maybe 15 quality starts.

 

So theoretically the new Sox management only needs to get one quality starter for next year. Two would be better, but the Sox also need to make other fixes. My biggest concern is with righty bats. Story needs to come around, but they also need at least one more .800 OPS righty bat.

 

Bello started the season on the IL and missed 2 starts due to that.

[Maxbialystock]

In 2014, Bradley posted a .531 OPS and 0.2 fWAR. I bet he wasn’t wildly popular. And his offensive output might have helped fuel the team’s interest in Rusney Castillo.

 

I don’t recall anyone defending his contributions based on his positive fWAR…

 

JBJ was up and down (between Pawtucket and Boston) like a yo-yo in 2014. But his lousy hitting was in tune with his teammates. Here are OPS's of the 7 Sox with the most innings played: Ortiz .873; Pedey .712; Bogey .660; Napoli .789; Holt .711; Nava .706; JBJ .531.

[Maxbialystock]

Bello started the season on the IL and missed 2 starts due to that.

 

Thanks for the correction. So I guess that's kind of a clean sweep. Every Sox starter this year spent time on the IL or in the bullpen.

 

I think this also confirms what a lousy manager Cora was this season. How could he have let that happen?

[Bellhorn04]

Actually those years were not pertinent at all to my question about 2014.

 

The bottom line is that year Bradley was a clear offensive liability yet didn’t have a negative fWAR. That’s also a possibility with Rafaela next year. If Rafaela has a .530 OPS and a positive fWAR in the 0.1 to 0.5 range, what will be your thoughts of him as a starter?

 

An fWAR of 0.1 to 0.5 is well below average for a starter. Average is about 2.0. So if Rafaela is 0.1 to 0.5, he will not be a plus player. The mitigating factor being he's young and hopefully improving.

[Bellhorn04]

An fWAR of 0.1 to 0.5 is well below average for a starter. Average is about 2.0. So if Rafaela is 0.1 to 0.5, he will not be a plus player. The mitigating factor being he's young and hopefully improving.

 

This brings to mind Slasher's complaints about WAR. He thought it makes much more sense to use WAA (Wins Above Average). He's probably right.

[mvp 78]

This brings to mind Slasher's complaints about WAR. He thought it makes much more sense to use WAA (Wins Above Average). He's probably right.

 

What's the Average? It's easier for me to conceptualize what a AAAA guy is than Average.

[Dipre]

Actually those years were not pertinent at all to my question about 2014.

 

The bottom line is that year Bradley was a clear offensive liability yet didn’t have a negative fWAR. That’s also a possibility with Rafaela next year. If Rafaela has a .530 OPS and a positive fWAR in the 0.1 to 0.5 range, what will be your thoughts of him as a starter?

 

An 0.5 WAR (either calculation) does not a regular make.

[Bellhorn04]

What's the Average? It's easier for me to conceptualize what a AAAA guy is than Average.

 

To each their own.

[Dipre]

This brings to mind Slasher's complaints about WAR. He thought it makes much more sense to use WAA (Wins Above Average). He's probably right.

 

No it doesn't. Y'all are not conceptualizing the meaning of WAR correctly. Replacement level is a guy below the last guy in your bench, therefore an 0.5 WAR guy is basically a bench guy. Both stats can be used for the same contextual questions.

[Bellhorn04]

Ozzie Smith had an .589 OPS in 1980 and a 5.1 bWAR.

 

You're right, he's a great example of huge defensive value trumping weak offense.

 

For his career, per FanGraphs, he was -69.4 RAR on offense, and a crazy 375.3 RAR on defense.

 

Career fWAR of 67.6.

[Bellhorn04]

No it doesn't. Y'all are not conceptualizing the meaning of WAR correctly. Replacement level is a guy below the last guy in your bench, therefore an 0.5 WAR guy is basically a bench guy. Both stats can be used for the same contextual questions.

 

I'm good with either. It was notin who seemed to be thrown a little by JBJ's positive fWAR in 2014. Just trying to help him.

[Dipre]

I'm good with either. It was notin who seemed to be thrown a little by JBJ's positive fWAR in 2014. Just trying to help him.

 

He was about that. A bench player with excellent defense getting regular playing time.

[notin]

I'm good with either. It was notin who seemed to be thrown a little by JBJ's positive fWAR in 2014. Just trying to help him.

 

No, I was just pointing out a player can struggle mightily with the bat and still have a positive fWAR. It wasn’t me who brought up negative fWAR back in post 149…

[mvp 78]

To each their own.

 

What is an average player? Verdugo?

[Bellhorn04]

No, I was just pointing out a player can struggle mightily with the bat and still have a positive fWAR. It wasn’t me who brought up negative fWAR back in post 149…

 

A tiny positive fWAR for a regular still sucks, though. Do you agree?

[Bellhorn04]

What is an average player? Verdugo?

 

Yes.

[mvp 78]

You're right, he's a great example of huge defensive value trumping weak offense.

 

For his career, per FanGraphs, he was -69.4 RAR on offense, and a crazy 375.3 RAR on defense.

 

Career fWAR of 67.6.

 

I would say that he was a great defender, but I take all the old defensive metrics with a huge grain of salt.

[notin]

A tiny positive fWAR for a regular still sucks, though. Do you agree?

 

Sure. But doesn’t that invalidate whatever point you were trying to make in post 149?

[Bellhorn04]

Sure. But doesn’t that invalidate whatever point you were trying to make in post 149?

 

Maybe you can explain how.

[Oscars]

Evoaldi just pitched 6.1 innings giving up 1 run against the rays in game 2 of the Wild card.

I hated the decision to not get a deal done with him last off season. Still we did get Kluber 😂

[Bellhorn04]

Evoaldi just pitched 6.1 innings giving up 1 run against the rays in game 2 of the Wild card.

I hated the decision to not get a deal done with him last off season. Still we did get Kluber

 

Part of why Bloom is no longer with us.

[notin]

Maybe you can explain how.

 

1) I said fans will displeased with a low enough offensive player regardless of defense.

2) You said the negative fWAR was a better evaluation than fan opinion.

3) I pointed out said players do not always have a negative fWAR, citing 2014 JBJ. Later another example in Ozzie Smith was supplied.

 

The problem with negative fWAR is the player might not have one, despite a miniscule OPS…

[Bellhorn04]

1) I said fans will displeased with a low enough offensive player regardless of defense.

2) You said the negative fWAR was a better evaluation than fan opinion.

3) I pointed out said players do not always have a negative fWAR, citing 2014 JBJ. Later another example in Ozzie Smith was supplied.

 

The problem with negative fWAR is the player might not have one, despite a miniscule OPS…

 

I will offer a modern apology for this:

 

"That's not me. I'm better than that."