A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

You mean like he did in about 3,000 of his previous 5200 posts?

 

I don't think it is near that number. It seems most of his posts are directed at lowering overly lofty and optimistic Sox fans' hopes.

[mvp 78]

Is that a requirement?

 

If they aren't, then why are adding?

[Bellhorn04]

Is Boston an attractive destination for top free agents? Will a free agent view the Red Sox as potential contenders?

 

Oh dear, what troubling thoughts.

[Hugh2]

Which is like looking at the plumbing under the kitchen sink to stop the leaks in the toilet. (That’s not where the problem is.)

 

No, it's not, but you're a lot closer to the problem going out and signing a second baseman than you are signing a 3B or a 1B.

[notin]

No, it's not, but you're a lot closer to the problem going out and signing a second baseman than you are signing a 3B or a 1B.

 

Well they shouldn’t sign a 1b. But Devers and Casas are both among the worst at their positions.

 

Chapman will unfortunately require a larger deal than the Sox should spend upgrading the infield. After him the best defensive 3b on the market is probably Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who should only be signed as a bench player.

 

They probably simply go with Urias, who does have some right-handed pop at 2b. Whether they offer arbitration or non-tender him and try to re-sign him for less remains to be seen…

[notin]

If they aren't, then why are adding?

 

I assume those who want to add a 2b are thinking 2024 only…

[notin]

I don't think it is near that number. It seems most of his posts are directed at lowering overly lofty and optimistic Sox fans' hopes.

 

I think that last one fits that category…

[moonslav59]

I think that last one fits that category…

 

I don't, especially when someone says something like, "We should trade Dugo for a good SP."

[moonslav59]

I assume those who want to add a 2b are thinking 2024 only…

 

Depends. If we trade Mayer for an top pitcher, we could use a 2Bman for longer.

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW, which probably isn't much, Jon Heyman thinks the Red Sox are a major threat to sign Ohtani.

 

https://nypost.com/2023/10/05/red-sox-loom-as-real-threat-to-sign-shohei-ohtani/

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

FWIW, which probably isn't much, Jon Heyman thinks the Red Sox are a major threat to sign Ohtani.

 

https://nypost.com/2023/10/05/red-sox-loom-as-real-threat-to-sign-shohei-ohtani/

 

Why is it threatening? Who is it threatening?

 

I got it: Sox fans -- who know it would only be a PR move, and blow all winter money on a guy who can't even pitch next year (and maybe never again like he did in the past)...

[Hugh2]

Ohtani might be a generational talent, but he's probably our last need on earth right now.

 

He's a left handed hitting DH, at least in 2024.

 

He will pitch again in 2025, and might not handle a full season's workload again until 2026 when he will be in his 30's. What if he's not the same pitcher?

 

He's going to get $500 million still. So you're spending 50 million a year for a guy who won't even pitch for you next year.

 

FOr less money you can literally have Nola and Yama+++++

[Hugh2]

Depends. If we trade Mayer for an top pitcher, we could use a 2Bman for longer.

 

Even then, it's not like the 2nd base market is impressing anyone.

[moonslav59]

Ohtani might be a generational talent, but he's probably our last need on earth right now.

 

He's a left handed hitting DH, at least in 2024.

 

He will pitch again in 2025, and might not handle a full season's workload again until 2026 when he will be in his 30's. What if he's not the same pitcher?

 

He's going to get $500 million still. So you're spending 50 million a year for a guy who won't even pitch for you next year.

 

FOr less money you can literally have Nola and Yama+++++

 

I fully agree. I'd actually be bummed, if we spend over $30-35M/yr on him.

[Bellhorn04]

Ohtani might be a generational talent, but he's probably our last need on earth right now.

 

He's a left handed hitting DH, at least in 2024.

 

He will pitch again in 2025, and might not handle a full season's workload again until 2026 when he will be in his 30's. What if he's not the same pitcher?

 

He's going to get $500 million still. So you're spending 50 million a year for a guy who won't even pitch for you next year.

 

FOr less money you can literally have Nola and Yama+++++

 

I would think the price on Ohtani has to have gone down. Who's crazy enough to pay $500 mill for a DH/injured pitcher?

[Hugh2]

I fully agree. I'd actually be bummed, if we spend over $30-35M/yr on him.

 

If all it took was 30 million a year to sign Ohtani we'd be dumb to not sign him long term, even if he is just a hitter.

 

But he's getting 45-50 per year plus.

[Hugh2]

I would think the price on Ohtani has to have gone down. Who's crazy enough to pay $500 mill for a DH/injured pitcher?

 

A lot of people, if anything Ohtani is ONLY getting $500 million now.

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of people, if anything Ohtani is ONLY getting $500 million now.

 

Why?

[sk7326]

FWIW, which probably isn't much, Jon Heyman thinks the Red Sox are a major threat to sign Ohtani.

 

https://nypost.com/2023/10/05/red-sox-loom-as-real-threat-to-sign-shohei-ohtani/

 

Ohtani's relationship with New Balance could be a big factor here.

[mvp 78]

Well they shouldn’t sign a 1b. But Devers and Casas are both among the worst at their positions.

 

Chapman will unfortunately require a larger deal than the Sox should spend upgrading the infield. After him the best defensive 3b on the market is probably Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who should only be signed as a bench player.

 

They probably simply go with Urias, who does have some right-handed pop at 2b. Whether they offer arbitration or non-tender him and try to re-sign him for less remains to be seen…

 

They never non-tender anyone. I think they just stick with Urias/Reyes and hope that Yorke hits the crap out of the ball in AAA next Spring.

[sk7326]

Ohtani might be a generational talent, but he's probably our last need on earth right now.

 

He's a left handed hitting DH, at least in 2024.

 

He will pitch again in 2025, and might not handle a full season's workload again until 2026 when he will be in his 30's. What if he's not the same pitcher?

 

He's going to get $500 million still. So you're spending 50 million a year for a guy who won't even pitch for you next year.

 

FOr less money you can literally have Nola and Yama+++++

 

If it is a signal they will like, pay for top end talent and stuff, it's one thing.

 

It can be a both/and thing, not an either/or.

 

There is some cynical reasoning at work here as well. The team is nearly bereft of star power - and so the team might want to import some.

[mvp 78]

Ohtani's relationship with New Balance could be a big factor here.

 

I think that relationship doesn't matter at all. Why would he care if he's closer to New Balance? Did Michael Jordan play for the Trail Blazers?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think that relationship doesn't matter at all. Why would he care if he's closer to New Balance? Did Michael Jordan play for the Trail Blazers?

 

So he can walk in and get new free shoes every time his feet sweat? On second thought, if you're making half a billion, you can afford to have your personal assistant or someone else on her staff employed full-time just to open and lace up daily shipments, and neatly place in your locker before each game... or hike... or stroll downstairs when the chefs call you for meals.

[moonslav59]

If all it took was 30 million a year to sign Ohtani we'd be dumb to not sign him long term, even if he is just a hitter.

 

But he's getting 45-50 per year plus.

 

I would not pay $30-35M for a DH.

 

Maybe, if we didn't already have 3 starters better suited for DH than in the field, but not now.

[notin]

#3 for a guy about to enter his prime; the only time winning may be the priority is when an already rich veteran on his last contract desires one last shot at a ring

 

1. Money: lots and lots, commensurate with longterm production that you know your body can't possibly deliver

2. Weather: decent enough to give your body a chance to produce longterm; can't all be San Diego, but cities with miserable months of raw, rainy nights in the 40s need not apply

3. Vibes: crowds excited about baseball and baseball players in a place where winning matters (or the opposite of toiling in the Flying Dutchman of Domes in Tampa).

 

Some guys leave Boston for #1, and while happy with #2, miss #3... examples: Fred Lynn, Bruce Hurst. Others bring #3 with them, like Mookie or Manny (whose better-body-by-chemistry was one of the rare few that sustained excellence in Boston after signing longterm).

 

I think the list is simple.

 

1. Money. It’s a job after all.

2. Years. But not to stretch out the money. Add more money and let my retirement be my choice.

3. Playing time. I think most players would rather start on a bad team than sit on the bench of a good one.

 

That’s what I think players look for. Although I admit I didn’t interview any to make that list…

[notin]

If it is a signal they will like, pay for top end talent and stuff, it's one thing.

 

It can be a both/and thing, not an either/or.

 

There is some cynical reasoning at work here as well. The team is nearly bereft of star power - and so the team might want to import some.

 

 

Then get and extend Juan Soto…

[Hugh2]

Why?

 

Because he's Ohtani and he's a generational talent. He's still one of the best players in the league if all he can do is hit, and yes he had elbow surgery but guys recover and someone is going to spend the money on him. 500 million at tens years is 50 million a year. If Aaron Judge can get 40 million a year Ohtani can get 50+ and I'd be perfectly comfortable wagering my first born children on that prediction.

[Bellhorn04]

Because he's Ohtani and he's a generational talent. He's still one of the best players in the league if all he can do is hit, and yes he had elbow surgery but guys recover and someone is going to spend the money on him. 500 million at tens years is 50 million a year. If Aaron Judge can get 40 million a year Ohtani can get 50+ and I'd be perfectly comfortable wagering my first born children on that prediction.

 

Judge is a fair comp. He got 360 mill. That's still a long way from 500.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Then get and extend Juan Soto…

 

Imagine the implications and overall cost. Juan can't play centerfield nor cover right in Fenway, so he'd do the Mash, the Monster Mash. It'd be a Green Wall smash. Green, as in more than the $400 million he turned down in Washington?

 

And even if, that would also preclude definitely trading Duran and Yoshida (and maybe eating part of that contract). Can we get one healthy big league pitcher who's not past his prime for that pair?

[Hugh2]

Judge is a fair comp. He got 360 mill. That's still a long way from 500.

 

The guy is going to be a pitcher in 2025, and was arguably the best pitcher in baseball.

 

He's Ohtani, just the name alone is worth millions of dollars.

 

Ohtani is getting 500 million.